A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JimEd]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last time KC was in POR was 2024. 

i meant WOO. doesn't make a difference though. he's in the minors, making MLB money.

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That too.

I like Duran. Like has been said--he shows up and he is injury free. He just needs to get his head on straight over the winter and come back strong.

Maybe he can help some of the guys in the weight room put on some muscle mass.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last time KC was in POR was 2024. 

When that’s when the big 4 were there who were supposed to make everything AWESOME?🤔

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Do you really need that to really tell how a player is really playing?

I responded to notin "if you believe in WAR..." because he believes in that calculation and uses that metric in his posts. I'm not sure why I should care that you don't believe in WAR. Great, whatever, but my post was towards notin. Do I need it? No. Is it called Wins Above Replacement? Yes. Did I state that Duran was replacement level based on that calculation? Yes. 🙉🙊🙈

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

When that’s when the big 4 were there who were supposed to make everything AWESOME?🤔

Nope, Bloom wasn't here in 2024. Nice try though. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope, Bloom wasn't here in 2024. Nice try though. 

Nice try? Wasn’t that still the plan? They had the big press release when the big 3 all got to WOO. Wasn’t bresLOW the one who gave the extensions to KC, and little A?. I don’t the the big plans changed when Bloom left.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I responded to notin "if you believe in WAR..." because he believes in that calculation and uses that metric in his posts. I'm not sure why I should care that you don't believe in WAR. Great, whatever, but my post was towards notin. Do I need it? No. Is it called Wins Above Replacement? Yes. Did I state that Duran was replacement level based on that calculation? Yes. 🙉🙊🙈

Big deal above, or below replacement.🤭

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Nice try? Wasn’t that still the plan? They had the big press release when the big 3 all got to WOO. Wasn’t bresLOW the one who gave the extensions to KC, and little A?. I don’t the the big plans changed when Bloom left.

The "going to be amazing" comment came straight from Bloom, nobody else. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The "going to be amazing" comment came straight from Bloom, nobody else. 

Yes that did, but the plan stayed the same.

[Bellhorn04]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, I'll bite:

Sale ended 2018 healthy and with an 0.96 ERA in his last 11 starts. Yes, he missed some of August but finished strongly. Yes he struggled in the first playoff series that season, but he did help us win a ring.

He missed the first 4 months of 2021, and came back looking very good to end the season (3.16 ERA) Again, he stumbled in the first playoff series but did okay v HOU in the ALCS.

He ended the 2023 season doing pretty well, but not better than '18 and '21. (3.92 ERA in last 9 starts and 3.60 last 4 starts.)

I saw no reason to have better hopes after 2023 than other seasons.

The past doesn't necessarily predict the future.

The fact that Roman Anthony has struggled with injuries in 2025 and 2026 doesn't mean he will do so in 2027 and 2028.

Also, the big difference about Sale at the end of 2023 is that you only have one more year to pay him.  As it turned out they paid him $17 million anyway.

(I guess we're not quite done with this. 🙂) 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The past doesn't necessarily predict the future.

The fact that Roman Anthony has struggled with injuries in 2025 and 2026 doesn't mean he will do so in 2027 and 2028.

Also, the big difference about Sale at the end of 2023 is that you only have one more year to pay him.  As it turned out they paid him $17 million anyway.

(I guess we're not quite done with this. 🙂) 

With Roman, it was two distinct injuries. If the hand heals up 100%, I don't have an expectation that he's automatically going to hit the 60 day IL next season. If he has a third one next season? 

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The past doesn't necessarily predict the future.

The fact that Roman Anthony has struggled with injuries in 2025 and 2026 doesn't mean he will do so in 2027 and 2028.

Also, the big difference about Sale at the end of 2023 is that you only have one more year to pay him.  As it turned out they paid him $17 million anyway.

(I guess we're not quite done with this. 🙂) 

The past doesn’t necessarily predict the future just  like hope, and hype doesn’t guarantee success. Yes paying Atlanta $17M to take Sale off their hands was not a $17M well spent.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The past doesn’t necessarily predict the future just  like hope, and hype doesn’t guarantee success. Yes paying Atlanta $17M to take Sale off their hands was not a $17M well spent.

Yeah, taking on $17 mill was way too much.  If you have to pay that much it's just not worth it.  Especially if you're the Boston Red Sox and one of the wealthiest teams in the game.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, taking on $17 mill was way too much.  If you have to pay that much it's just not worth it.  Especially if you're the Boston Red Sox and one of the wealthiest teams in the game.

I was alright with the deal until I heard about the $17M. 

[Old Red]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Roman, it was two distinct injuries. If the hand heals up 100%, I don't have an expectation that he's automatically going to hit the 60 day IL next season. If he has a third one next season? 

Those indecisive check swings can be harmful to your health.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I was alright with the deal until I heard about the $17M. 

I was temporarily alright with the deal because I thought it meant we were going to be signing some top level starters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Roman, it was two distinct injuries. If the hand heals up 100%, I don't have an expectation that he's automatically going to hit the 60 day IL next season. If he has a third one next season? 

Both Anthony injuries were from attempting to do the one skill that made him a multi-millionaire -- before he even used that skill for stardom.

Roman didn't get hit by a pitch and sustain a broken bone like Curtis Mead. Nope, he hurt himself swinging a bat. Twice: a year ago it was an oblique. This season, it's a wrist -- no wait, it's his ring finger... well, the finger connected to the wrist.

Sorry, I just can't be optimistic that this player will ever be a solid, productive baseball player... not if he can't do damage to pitches without damaging himself. 

This is no different to Triston Casas (except he's not owed longterm). What is going to prevent them from re-injuring these same tender areas, and if there is something preventative, how can it not prevent them from swinging as hard as ever so they can reach potential????

[mvp 78]

On Casas, the second he hurt himself on the play at 1b, his career was altered forever. I said at the time that he was done. Most everyone on here disagreed with me. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lowe has no power to LF. Per Statcast, Fenway would be absolutely terrible for his swing. Murakami uses an all fields approach and may have been more successful here. Lowe? IDK. I believe that his pull heavy approach would lose a lot of fly balls to RF that would be HR elsewhere. 

I think they are going to stick with Story for one more season, Lowe just seem to be a less likely option. 

That does curb my initial wish for a BLowe, some. Maybe Suzuki is our #1 target- like with many other teams.

I just don't see us trading more prospects, at this point, but I'm fine with trading some for players with 4-5 years of control (3 if a stud.)

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That does curb my initial wish for a BLowe, some. Maybe Suzuki is our #1 target- like with many other teams.

I just don't see us trading more prospects, at this point, but I'm fine with trading some for players with 4-5 years of control (3 if a stud.)

Per Breslow's comments today, I have no idea what he's going to do. Maybe the best bet is a change at SS with Elly? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The past doesn't necessarily predict the future.

The fact that Roman Anthony has struggled with injuries in 2025 and 2026 doesn't mean he will do so in 2027 and 2028.

Also, the big difference about Sale at the end of 2023 is that you only have one more year to pay him.  As it turned out they paid him $17 million anyway.

(I guess we're not quite done with this. 🙂) 

I fully grasp all the reasons to keep Sale. I was the one who coined the "Cris Freakin' Sale" nickname, when we got him. I loved the trade. I loved the extension, unlike many. I believed and believed and believed and believed, then I gave up.

It would be like trading Story and then he hits .310 with 40 Hrs.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I fully grasp all the reasons to keep Sale. I was the one who coined the "Cris Freakin' Sale" nickname, when we got him. I loved the trade. I loved the extension, unlike many. I believed and believed and believed and believed, then I gave up.

It would be like trading Story and then he hits .310 with 40 Hrs.

The report was that Bloom had a trade on the table that would have eaten the entire salary the year before. Waited too long and had to throw in $17M? The decision making of the FO is very interesting for sure. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

On Casas, the second he hurt himself on the play at 1b, his career was altered forever. I said at the time that he was done. Most everyone on here disagreed with me. 

He was attempting a comeback season from his swinging-too-hard injury so we'll never know. But all we have now is that he's never been the same hitter since.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I was alright with the deal until I heard about the $17M. 

That pretty much made him a $10M/yr pitcher for ATL, which seemed about right, when you factor in he might have had 4:1 odds against 100 IP.

It's hard to know what Grissom's value was, because the ide was he was not good at SS but could/should be okay at 2B. Turns out he wasn't, and his bat heroics year one looks like a fluke.

We needed a 2Bman.

We needed to get away from hoping injured pitchers come back (like Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Buehler, Sandoval...) where everybody is screaming stay away from those types! Remember, Kluber was a CY Young winner, too.

This whole rag is based on hindsight. I know some didn't like it day one, including me, but my opinion changed after a few days. Yes, the $17M seemed excessive, but we did save $10M.

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per Breslow's comments today, I have no idea what he's going to do. Maybe the best bet is a change at SS with Elly? 

What do you think the Reds are stupid?

[drewski6]

Pick 4 players who arent Tolle for Elly and I say yes.  Bennet, Durbin, Arias, and a prospect? All day.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

What do you think the Reds are stupid?

The Sox and Reds were working on a trade at the deadline. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox and Reds were working on a trade at the deadline. 

Someone said that to me when I said Roman and ARias for Elly.

[NHNative]

I don't see them letting Elly go. The guy is a monster.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Someone said that to me when I said Roman and ARias for Elly.

Arias wasn't involved in the discussions between the orgs at the time. 🤷‍♂️