A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

You were not alone.

Sonny was clearly aggravated about being pulled early, although most teams in the same positions would have done the same thing (although probably not with someone as cold as Erik Miller has been).  Don’t know if Sonny is one who always gets aggravated when removed or this one really got to him. If it’s the latter, it might influence his decision on his option…

You were not alone, I was there with you
Though far apart, you were in my heart.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but at the time, I think Grissom still had some trade value and hopes.

A guy who is not very good at SS defense often does fine at 2B. He had a 105 OPS+ w ATL before the trade.

Our 2B OPS+ had been horrible for years. 

The hopes that Sale could ever be healthy again were pretty low for about all of us. The hopes that he could get healthy as be a CY Young candidate were not high at all.

There was some logic to the trade, at the time. It's easy to say it sucked, now. I'll say it, now too.

That is Brez's worst trade. Others are pending and off to concerning starts, but even the Priester deal might end up a plus for us.

Yes, in retrospect it was a very bad trade. But at the time Sale couldn’t stay on the field. Nobody knew he would have a resurgence like he had. You can’t judge a trade through a retrospectoscope 

[moonslav59]

I think Gray enjoyed his season with BOS. He's moved around a lot, so I'm not sure that matters, of the last game snafu either. 

Most likely, he signs for the best contract. STL isn't paying $20M of it this time around.

Nick Martinez is another aging, quality SP'er who won't be getting any long term offers. I don't see many other options out there.

We could maybe sign Morejon to the pen, but without replacing Gray, we'd need Crochet to be back strong plus the depth to come through, too (Crawford, Houck & Oviedo to replace Early, Sandoval and all the pen games we saw in 2026.) It's doable but risky. Even Morejon will be very costly, and it seems many here think the Bats are priority 1-2 and 3.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You were not alone, I was there with you
Though far apart, you were in my heart.

You had me at Suzuki….

[notin]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yes, in retrospect it was a very bad trade. But at the time Sale couldn’t stay on the field. Nobody knew he would have a resurgence like he had. You can’t judge a trade through a retrospectoscope 

That’s exactly what I’ve been saying for 3 years.

If the Ignore feature in this site actually worked, I would take Fred off it after this post…

[moonslav59]

FA Bats:

Suzuki is 32 and has been over .800 and 20 HRs for 4 straight season. (Trade Duran and fine)

Arozarena will be 32 in FEB, has 53 HRs and a .811 OPS from 2025-2026. He bats RH'd. (Maybe?)

BLowe just turned 32 and had one of his best career seasons and best since 2021. He's hit over 30 HRs 2 years in a row. He's a LHB. He's my first choice add. He can play 2B or LF.

Springer is 37 and declined at 36. (Nope.) and please GOD! No Bichette. 

Joc Pederson iws 34 and up and down like a yo-yo. He does bat lefty but has over 23 HRs in a season once since 2019. (Nope)

Jeffers is 29 and a RHB. Would be a nice back-up catcher /DH type. A .782 OPS since 2023 is not what some want, but he does hit about 22-23 HRs per 650.

[JimEd]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

FA Bats:

Suzuki is 32 and has been over .800 and 20 HRs for 4 straight season. (Trade Duran and fine)

Arozarena will be 32 in FEB, has 53 HRs and a .811 OPS from 2025-2026. He bats RH'd. (Maybe?)

BLowe just turned 32 and had one of his best career seasons and best since 2021. He's hit over 30 HRs 2 years in a row. He's a LHB. He's my first choice add. He can play 2B or LF.

Springer is 37 and declined at 36. (Nope.) and please GOD! No Bichette. 

Joc Pederson iws 34 and up and down like a yo-yo. He does bat lefty but has over 23 HRs in a season once since 2019. (Nope)

Jeffers is 29 and a RHB. Would be a nice back-up catcher /DH type. A .782 OPS since 2023 is not what some want, but he does hit about 22-23 HRs per 650.

FWIW....i talked to a friend the other day that talks with a player on the Mariners roster on a weekly basis. he said the entire team cannot wait for Arozarena to leave. apparently, they all hate him.

agree on BLowe. i wanted him last winter.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JimEd said:

FWIW....i talked to a friend the other day that talks with a player on the Mariners roster on a weekly basis. he said the entire team cannot wait for Arozarena to leave. apparently, they all hate him.

agree on BLowe. i wanted him last winter.

I mentioned BLowe last year, too- among many others who did not do so well.

He plays 2B and OF, so we'd have some flex with him.

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, some BTV numbers:

-24 Story (owed $30M)

-22 KC (owed $33M)

-14 Yoshida (owed $18M)

-14 Bello (owed $31M) I think he's worth more.

-1.4 Wong (owed $1.4M)

Some interesting or surprising numbers:

33 Durbin (owed ~$79M)

14 Suarez (owed $144M)

11 Mead & AR

6 Slaten

4 Duran (owed $16M)

[moonslav59]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

For what it's worth, some BTV numbers:

-24 Story (owed $30M)

-22 KC (owed $33M)

-14 Yoshida (owed $18M)

-14 Bello (owed $31M) I think he's worth more.

-1.4 Wong (owed $1.4M)

Some interesting or surprising numbers:

33 Durbin (owed ~$79M)

14 Suarez (owed $144M)

11 Mead & AR

6 Slaten

4 Duran (owed $16M)

Let's say we get lucky and find takers for Duran, Story and Yoshida and they pay the BTV Value- salary, we'd gain

$6M for Story, $4M for Yoshida and Duran's arb costs they put at $16M over 2 seasons. That's $26M total.

[FredLynn]

19 minutes ago, JimEd said:

FWIW....i talked to a friend the other day that talks with a player on the Mariners roster on a weekly basis. he said the entire team cannot wait for Arozarena to leave. apparently, they all hate him.

agree on BLowe. i wanted him last winter.

If history tells us anything Henry won’t spend the money for real talent over the winter. That’s his modus operandi. He’ll have BresLOW try to find a reclamation project and pass him off as gold

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

We're talking about what could happen on the field next year, but will there be baseball next year, or will the owners drag out their salary cap all season and there won't be any baseball?

[Tedballgame]

We can talk all about next season but there is a very good chance that there is no next season. The owners want a salary cap. Baseball needs a salary cap. The players do not want a salary cap since they have been making millions because of stupid owners paying outlandish salaries to bums. There WILL be a lockout and it will be long. Better find something to do next summer.

[NHNative]

30 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

We can talk all about next season but there is a very good chance that there is no next season. The owners want a salary cap. Baseball needs a salary cap. The players do not want a salary cap since they have been making millions because of stupid owners paying outlandish salaries to bums. There WILL be a lockout and it will be long. Better find something to do next summer.

I think there should be some kind of salary cap and just lower the dollar enticement in a serious way.

Love of the game rather than love of money.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Tedballgame said:

We can talk all about next season but there is a very good chance that there is no next season. The owners want a salary cap. Baseball needs a salary cap. The players do not want a salary cap since they have been making millions because of stupid owners paying outlandish salaries to bums. There WILL be a lockout and it will be long. Better find something to do next summer.

A missing season costs both sides much more.  We have this “will there be another season” thing at the end of every CBA, but labor disputes haven’t interfered with a single regular season game since 1995…

[moonslav59]

I think whatever JH sets the winter budget at will be a major factor in what we can do. I know- duh!

Last year, we lost some salary, but we added AAVs of...

26 Suarez

21 Gray (after STL contribution)

17 Contreras (after STL contribution)

6 IKF

(Not counting Crochet's extension.)

I seriously doubt the budget will be high enough to get ...

BLowe

1 from Suzuki, Arozarena or Acuna

1 from Gray, Nick Martinez or Morejon

Not sure we'll need that much, but I'm sure some feel we need even more.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If I was a gambler, I would bet most of us will be dead before the Sox win another championship. 

Just be happy we were alive to celebrate four of them.

[moonslav59]

The 2027 Tax Budget:

28.3 Crochet

26.0 Suarez

23.3 Story

17.3 Contreras (STL pays the rest- $4M)

18.0 Yoshida

16.3 Anthony

13.0 Chapman

9.2 Bello

7.5 Campbell

6.3 Rafaela

TOTAL $163M

Options:

8.3 Whitlock (club)

30.0 Gray (club w $5M buyout & Gray optout if option taken)

Assuming Gray opts out and Whitlock is brought back:

Updated TOTAL: $171M

Arbs:

7.7>8.0? Duran (3 of 4) Trade or non-tender

7.5>9.0? Rutschman (3 of 3)

4.1>4.2? Houck (3 of 3)

2.8>2.9 Crawford (3 of 4)

1.6>1.7 Casas (2 of 3)

1.6>1.7 Romy (2 of 3)

1.6>1.7 Oviedo (3 of 3)

1.4>1.5 Wong (2 of 3)

.80>2.5 Abreu (1 of 3)

.80>1.0 Monasterio (1 or 3)

.80>1.4 Weissert (1 of 3)

.80>1.1 Slaten (1 of 3)

.61>.70 Kelly (1 of 3)

.56>1.0 Guerrero (3 of 3)

.34>.80 Jones (1 of 4)

.27>.80 White (2 of 4)

.24>1.5 Miller (1 of 3)

.21>.22 S Martinez (1 of 3)

About $34M in ARBs +$4M to CWS with Hicks

$210M Total

+$16M Benefits and $4M rest of 40 man roster & bonus pool:

$230M

The Tax line before any lock-out is $247M.

 

[Tedballgame]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2027 Tax Budget:

28.3 Crochet

26.0 Suarez

23.3 Story

17.3 Contreras (STL pays the rest- $4M)

18.0 Yoshida

16.3 Anthony

13.0 Chapman

9.2 Bello

7.5 Campbell

6.3 Rafaela

TOTAL $163M

Options:

8.3 Whitlock (club)

30.0 Gray (club w $5M buyout & Gray optout if option taken)

Assuming Gray opts out and Whitlock is brought back:

Updated TOTAL: $171M

Arbs:

7.7>8.0? Duran (3 of 4) Trade or non-tender

7.5>9.0? Rutschman (3 of 3)

4.1>4.2? Houck (3 of 3)

2.8>2.9 Crawford (3 of 4)

1.6>1.7 Casas (2 of 3)

1.6>1.7 Romy (2 of 3)

1.6>1.7 Oviedo (3 of 3)

1.4>1.5 Wong (2 of 3)

.80>2.5 Abreu (1 of 3)

.80>1.0 Monasterio (1 or 3)

.80>1.4 Weissert (1 of 3)

.80>1.1 Slaten (1 of 3)

.61>.70 Kelly (1 of 3)

.56>1.0 Guerrero (3 of 3)

.34>.80 Jones (1 of 4)

.27>.80 White (2 of 4)

.24>1.5 Miller (1 of 3)

.21>.22 S Martinez (1 of 3)

About $34M in ARBs +$4M to CWS with Hicks

$210M Total

+$16M Benefits and $4M rest of 40 man roster & bonus pool:

$230M

The Tax line before any lock-out is $247M.

 

2028 will have over 41 million freed up from Story and Yoshida. Thank goodness.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

2028 will have over 41 million freed up from Story and Yoshida. Thank goodness.

I'm wondering if knowing this, JH might allow Brez to "pre-spend" some of that money into a long term deal given to someone who won't pull a Story or Yoshida on us.

Those two Bloom remnants still choke the budget of needed new spending, and while Brez seems to have a better record with mid level to major signings, it's not really a strong suit. He's done better with trades- some for higher priced players like Gray & Contreras but this time with the other team paying some salary down, unlike the Sale trade.

Brez'z largest deals: (remember Devers was extended before Brez took over, but his deal kicked in his first season in 2024.)

$170M/6 Crochet (trade then extension)

$130M/5 Suarez

$130M/8 Anthony (extension)

$60M/8 Campbell

$55M/6 Bello (extension)

$50M/8 Rafaela

$41M/1 Bregman

$39M/2 Giolito

$38M/3 Chapman (2 deals)

$34M/2 Contreras (trade w STL paying $8M of $42M)

$21M/1 Gray (trade w STL paying $20M of $41M)

$21M/1 Buehler

$18M2 Sandoval

$10M/2 Hendriks

 

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/1/2026 at 3:44 PM, mvp 78 said:

85 wins

Nothing wrong with that projection

FWIW  I agree with the criticism that in game 2 Tracy pulled Gray too soon.  The Sox still lose the game badly however because their hitting and bullpen stunk in boh games.  

Back to the 85 wins.  I'm not sure the hitting is fixable because I don't think JH wants to spend the money required to maintain excellent pitching and to acquire the requisite bats.  

I have said repeatedly I thought Breslow was right to dump Devers and not to meet Bregman's price $35M x 5 guaranteed.  However, right now both look better than any Red Sox hitters because I don't see Contreras repeating this season, Anthony getting healthy and hitting like last year, Abreu/Rafaela improving, Story playing a full season, etc.  If JH wants to fix the hitting I think he needs to add roughly $70M to the payroll.  

All that said, I enjoyed the heck out of this season despite the Sox worst September since 2011.  A lot of the moves Breslow made were good ones, including hiring Tracy, who during the season would have always kept Grey (and did)  in the game with just 70 pitches.  Grey's postgame comments were right on.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm wondering if knowing this, JH might allow Brez to "pre-spend" some of that money into a long term deal given to someone who won't pull a Story or Yoshida on us.

Those two Bloom remnants still choke the budget of needed new spending, and while Brez seems to have a better record with mid level to major signings, it's not really a strong suit. He's done better with trades- some for higher priced players like Gray & Contreras but this time with the other team paying some salary down, unlike the Sale trade.

Brez'z largest deals: (remember Devers was extended before Brez took over, but his deal kicked in his first season in 2024.)

$170M/6 Crochet (trade then extension)

$130M/5 Suarez

$130M/8 Anthony (extension)

$60M/8 Campbell

$55M/6 Bello (extension)

$50M/8

$41M/1 Bregman

$39M/2 Giolito

$38M/3 Chapman (2 deals)

$34M/2 Contreras (trade w STL paying $8M of $42M)

$21M/1 Gray (trade w STL paying $20M of $41M)

$21M/1 Buehler

$18M2 Sandoval

$10M/2 Hendriks

 

Some great numbers/reminders up there.  Thanks, moonslav.  

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Nothing wrong with that projection

FWIW  I agree with the criticism that in game 2 Tracy pulled Gray too soon.  The Sox still lose the game badly however because their hitting and bullpen stunk in boh games.  

Back to the 85 wins.  I'm not sure the hitting is fixable because I don't think JH wants to spend the money required to maintain excellent pitching and to acquire the requisite bats.  

I have said repeatedly I thought Breslow was right to dump Devers and not to meet Bregman's price $35M x 5 guaranteed.  However, right now both look better than any Red Sox hitters because I don't see Contreras repeating this season, Anthony getting healthy and hitting like last year, Abreu/Rafaela improving, Story playing a full season, etc.  If JH wants to fix the hitting I think he needs to add roughly $70M to the payroll.  

All that said, I enjoyed the heck out of this season despite the Sox worst September since 2011.  A lot of the moves Breslow made were good ones, including hiring Tracy, who during the season would have always kept Grey (and did)  in the game with just 70 pitches.  Grey's postgame comments were right on.  

It was a fun season, and we got to see that amazing historical stretch.

It ended badly and to the Yanks made it way worse.

I think we were a better team than 2025, and we only lose one key player (Gray.) Last year, we lost 1/2 Devers, Bregman Giolito, Wilson and other decent players.

We may need much better health or some serious upticks, or we can make some big additions. Maybe a little of both.