A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gray or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

[mvp 78]

85 wins

[Randy Red Sox]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gary or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

who's Gary?

[Randy Red Sox]

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

[drewski6]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

Probably because without Contreras we are the worst hitting team the Red Sox have put forth in a very long time, so we put up with a lot with Contreras.  But we all know hes a time bomb.

[Tedballgame]

Gray is not coming back after last night unless they completely overpay him, which we know they won't. He is a midwest guy. I  could see him going back to the Reds or Cardinals.

The lineup just doesn't have one bat that teams fear which is where the Sox really blew it by not signing Alonso. There isn't a FA bat like that out there this off season. Next year is going to be just like this year. 85-88 wins, a wild card, and an early exit. Maybe when Story and Yoshida are off the books they can spend on some bats.

I hate to say it but they have to give Casas a long look in ST. Power bats are hard to find and he could hit 30 if he gets his head out of his a$$.

[Tedballgame]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

The Sox lineup was not good enough to beat Schlittler or Fried so Contreras' defense had little to do with the loss. You have to be able to score 4-6 runs in a playoff game to win unless you have Bob Gibson pitching for you.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Gray is not coming back after last night unless they completely overpay him, which we know they won't. He is a midwest guy. I  could see him going back to the Reds or Cardinals.

The lineup just doesn't have one bat that teams fear which is where the Sox really blew it by not signing Alonso. There isn't a FA bat like that out there this off season. Next year is going to be just like this year. 85-88 wins, a wild card, and an early exit. Maybe when Story and Yoshida are off the books they can spend on some bats.

I hate to say it but they have to give Casas a long look in ST. Power bats are hard to find and he could hit 30 if he gets his head out of his a$$.

You had me until the end there.  Casas cannot be counted on for anything and if they dont go get a power bat then I see no reason to not expect more of the same if not worse.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

who's Gary?

LOL, Gray. My keyboard is dyslexic.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You had me until the end there.  Casas cannot be counted on for anything and if they dont go get a power bat then I see no reason to not expect more of the same if not worse.

It can't hurt to let Casas play in ST'ing.

Handing him a starting slot is another thing.

[Tedballgame]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

You had me until the end there.  Casas cannot be counted on for anything and if they dont go get a power bat then I see no reason to not expect more of the same if not worse.

I said take a long look at him. I didn't say they have to marry him. Maybe he makes a comeback, maybe not. Doesn't cost them anything to look.

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

You had me until the end there.  Casas cannot be counted on for anything and if they dont go get a power bat then I see no reason to not expect more of the same if not worse.

The same now can be said about Anthony. Two seasons in a row that his power was counted on in the PO and he was hurt. The only way the Sox would have beaten the Yankees in the Wild Card round is if the July Sox were playing. Instead the April, May, and September Sox showed up. You need to hit for power in the playoffs to score runs.

[NHNative]

44 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The same now can be said about Anthony. Two seasons in a row that his power was counted on in the PO and he was hurt. The only way the Sox would have beaten the Yankees in the Wild Card round is if the July Sox were playing. Instead the April, May, and September Sox showed up. You need to hit for power in the playoffs to score runs.

What I do not understand is what happened to the players to return a September like this after an amazing turn around.

[oldtimer]

Only 7 batters in ML baseball had a BA or 300 or above in 2026, with the top one at 316. Baseball is becoming more pitching dominant with starters seldom going 3 times through the batting order, velocity up and hitters concentrating on HRs. In addition, It seems to me that hitters are swamped with data and put on a tether by their coaches. Watching  the Red Sox hitters at bats during the wild card series was painful with only Contreras, Rutschman and Sogard having good at bats. Other regressed.

Saying that, I basically agree with Moon's 2027 starters with Arias in for Story and Sogard, Gonzales and Campbell for utility  the 26 man roster. It will be a miracle if Chapman can give us another great year; fingers crossed on that.

What I haven't seen addressed is the coaching area. Our pitching was good, our defense was good, and would improve with Arias, but our offense was not. Cutting ties with Duran and a Story (in decline) would help but we  have to be better at coaching. 

[NHNative]

I have said before and repeat. I agree the batting coaches are adding to the problem with over analyzing. This disrupts the natural ability and instincts gained over time as these hitter moved on up.

Correcting an obvious problem is one thing. over doing it cause its a job is something else.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Tedballgame said:

I said take a long look at him. I didn't say they have to marry him. Maybe he makes a comeback, maybe not. Doesn't cost them anything to look.

I agree. He makes my 40 man roster not my 26.

He's a career .800 batter with over 30 Hrs per 650. Isn't that what everyone wants us to go out and get?

No way should we count on him, but we don't have to cut him loose, either.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

The same now can be said about Anthony. Two seasons in a row that his power was counted on in the PO and he was hurt. The only way the Sox would have beaten the Yankees in the Wild Card round is if the July Sox were playing. Instead the April, May, and September Sox showed up. You need to hit for power in the playoffs to score runs.

I for one was impressed with Anthony's OBP and liked him as the lead-off batter.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Gray is not coming back after last night unless they completely overpay him, which we know they won't. He is a midwest guy. I  could see him going back to the Reds or Cardinals.

 

Gray is from Tennessee.

I don’t think he avoids Boston just because of last night.  He is aware nearly every team in the postseason pulls their starters early in October.  Heck they’re the one team he can make pay him $30mill.

But he might want multiple years or he just retires.  He’s been playing this game a long time now.

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

who's Gary?

Snony Gary…

[Tedballgame]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Gray is from Tennessee.

I don’t think he avoids Boston just because of last night.  He is aware nearly every team in the postseason pulls their starters early in October.  Heck they’re the one team he can make pay him $30mill.

But he might want multiple years or he just retires.  He’s been playing this game a long time now.

 

St. Louis and Cincy are  both close to Tennessee. Ideal spots for him. Low pressure cities that don't criticize players like the Boston press.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

St. Louis and Cincy are  both close to Tennessee. Ideal spots for him. Low pressure cities that don't criticize players like the Boston press.

He's played with STL, and maybe they'll up their budget again, after doing better than expected this year.

If he wants to win, he'd avoid Cincy.

ATL is not far from TN, but with airplanes being invented recently, I'm not sure distance is all that meaningful anymore.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

The Sox lineup was not good enough to beat Schlittler or Fried so Contreras' defense had little to do with the loss. You have to be able to score 4-6 runs in a playoff game to win unless you have Bob Gibson pitching for you.

it was 1-0 at the time and that runner scored. who's to say we couldn't have come back at 1-0.  it was a terrible defensive game for Contreras and he'd be the first to admit it

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I for one was impressed with Anthony's OBP and liked him as the lead-off batter.

i like him too but to date he has not lived up to his press clippings

[Tedballgame]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's played with STL, and maybe they'll up their budget again, after doing better than expected this year.

If he wants to win, he'd avoid Cincy.

ATL is not far from TN, but with airplanes being invented recently, I'm not sure distance is all that meaningful anymore.

He also formerly played for Cincy

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i like him too but to date he has not lived up to his press clippings

He also hasn’t had his 23rd birthday yet…

[Tedballgame]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

He also hasn’t had his 23rd birthday yet…

Yes, he still can be a great player but he has to stay healthy. As Bill Belichick said, "The greatest ability is availability".

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

He also formerly played for Cincy

I forgot that- yes!

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i like him too but to date he has not lived up to his press clippings

He's barely got 500 PAs and still has a decent career OBP of .371 and an .803 OPS.

Harsh.

The injuries suck.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Yes, he still can be a great player but he has to stay healthy. As Bill Belichick said, "The greatest ability is availability".

That quote is older than Belichick.  In fact, it’s so old, his girlfriend left him for it…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's barely got 500 PAs and still has a decent career OBP of .371 and an .803 OPS.

Harsh.

No s***.

Anthony just finished his age 22 season with a career OPS+ of 126.  After his age 22 season, Mookie Betts only had an OPS+ of 119.

Other than stay healthy, what exactly does a 22yo have to do to live up to the hype?  Apparently with prospects the only two levels are “bust” and “Mike Trout”…