Red Sox Roundup, Sept 28: Abreu's Impact, Free Agent Moves, Playoff Strategy

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'll take Suzuki if Breslow would sign him. Not much else available via FA. Would need to acquire other starters via trade. Harder to project those guys. I know there were talks about trading for Elly at the deadline that didn't include Arias. Who else was included? IDK. 

I'd have to think Rafaela or Abreu would be the start of any major trade for a big bat- if not Arias.

I like Gonzales and Primera, but they do not have the return value of Arias and some of the guys we traded away for Mead & AR, or even the value given up for Gray, Contreras, Durbin & Oviedo.

My guess is Brez believes Mead and AR is the upgrade we needed, along with hopes for Anthony to stay healthy and improve. These aren't baseless hopes.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think notin was the only poster who was satisfied with our offense set up for opening day. Many others wanted better offense but realized we chose to make further gains in other areas to perhaps offset what we knew would be a less than ideal offense.

We also made a major trade during the season for Mead. The fact that he got hurt on day one doesn't mean an improvement was not made for 2017 and beyond.

We then made a bold and expensive deal to upgrade our Catching position by what looked to be an estimated .100+ OPS (over Narvaez and Wong.) That has been slow to materialize, but AR did better Narvaez's OPS by 153 points. Maybe next season he can hit over .780 or even .800.

We might expect double the PAs from Anthony, but someone else might get hurt, so maybe this should not be a consideration.

Looking at age-related bell curve estimations, these players should improve- stay the same - or get worse:

Improve?

.851 Mead

.773 Abreu

.761 Rafaela

.735 Anthony

.710 Durbin

.688 Rutschman

.727 Sogard, .993 Jones, .727 Seigler

__________________

Same?

.627 Duran

.823 Gasper

.655 Wong, ,665 Monasterio, .572 Romy, .560 Eaton

___________________________

Worse?

.901 Contreras

.621 Story

.746 Yoshida

.679 White

________________________

I'd love to see us add a big bat (LH'd.)

I just think replacing or bringing back Gray is #1.

#2 might be a pipedream but Morejon would be great.

#3 would be an upgraded bat, but after #1 and #2, I'm not sure Brez will have enough for the type of offensive upgrade many feel is essential.

We could trust in Crochet to replace Gray and hope for better rotational health, but the league trend is for more and more SP'er IL stints and longer ones.

 

Only Cedanne, Abreu, and Adley are safe.  Everyone else, Im shopping for upgrades.

[drewski6]

A team full of 100 OPS+ guys is how you lose in the first round.

Reporting live from groundhog day.

[drewski6]

shut me up by scoring runs tonight, not jibber jabbering about how the 23rd best offense has no room for improvement.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Only Cedanne, Abreu, and Adley are safe.  Everyone else, Im shopping for upgrades.

Who is the better 1b than Willson? 

[drewski6]

Durbin? Jobs not safe.  Contreras? 35 yrs old and a terrible attitude. Roman Anthony - worm killing by day, martini killing by night, Mead - TBD, Story - declining  , Arias - proven nothing, 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Who is the better 1b than Willson? 

35 yr old with a bad attitude.  And he carried us this year.  And we had a 23rd best offense.

We had the 23rd best offense, and that was carried by a 35 yr old with an attitude problem.  

Im fine with Willson for next year, but the position is not exactly one where Im like - okay - THAT one is locked down.

[drewski6]

No offense additions and we could be 28/30 next year.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

35 yr old with a bad attitude.  And he carried us this year.  And we had a 23rd best offense.

We had the 23rd best offense, and that was carried by a 35 yr old with an attitude problem.  

Im fine with Willson for next year, but the position is not exactly one where Im like - okay - THAT one is locked down.

Who would you play there instead? 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Who would you play there instead? 

Depends on who I can get. But my point is not that we need to prioritize upgrading Contreras.  My point is that our 23rd best offense was carried by a 35 yr old guy with an attitude problem.  Usually, if a 35 yr old with  an attitude problem is the position where you feel you have the strongest bat - and you have the 23rd best offense - those 2 things together are a problem.

My concern about Contreras is that hes 35 yrs old and crazy.  Hes not exactly a franchise bat.  I want franchise bats, and I fit them in anywhere.  If one is a 1B, that prob means COntreras to DH. Or the 1b we acquired to DH. Or if its an OF, Roman to 1b and Contreras to DH.

I dont mean to single out Contreras as a bad offensive contributor.  Jsut that you roll over these bats with no upgrades, dont be shocked if 35 contreras shows a little aging and suddently we are moving south from 23rd best.

Meanwhile, Joe B is convinced the problem with this team is that Crochet got hurt.

[drewski6]

I want stars, and I care not where they play.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Only Cedanne, Abreu, and Adley are safe.  Everyone else, Im shopping for upgrades.

Contreras is 100% safe, despite the realization that a decline is imminent.

Arias is going to be handed SS. Some of us might wish we had a surer bet on SS offense, but he's the SS in 2027- or he BETTER BE!

Mead can play 2B or DH, so one will and shouldn't be upgraded.  Same with Anthony at LF or DH.

That does leave a couple slots that are somewhat flexible on which to choose from.

If it means no Gray replacement, are you fine with just a big bat upgrade?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Durbin? Jobs not safe.  Contreras? 35 yrs old and a terrible attitude. Roman Anthony - worm killing by day, martini killing by night, Mead - TBD, Story - declining  , Arias - proven nothing, 

Have you morphed into Fred?

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Have you morphed into Fred?

Here is what I am reading : dont expect us hit tonight.  Expect to noodlebat out of the playoffs, second year in a row. Dont expect offensive additions.  We have nowhere to put anyone. Pay no attention to the fact that we have noodlebatted out of the playoffs 2 years in a row.  We might have a league average offense next year - be fine with it.

Im not saying that we arent going to hit. Ive been more than reasonable.  Im jsut saying why are we already creating excuses to not get bats while simultaneously telling me we dont have that bats.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Go Sox!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Here is what I am reading : dont expect us hit tonight.  Expect to noodlebat out of the playoffs, second year in a row. Dont expect offensive additions.  We have nowhere to put anyone. Pay no attention to the fact that we have noodlebatted out of the playoffs 2 years in a row.  We might have a league average offense next year - be fine with it.

Im not saying that we arent going to hit. Ive been more than reasonable.  Im jsut saying why are we already creating excuses to not get bats while simultaneously telling me we dont have that bats.

My point is that the budget is limited and we may lose Gray.

Mead is out, but we should plan on one big bat out, so that's no excuse for us not hitting now.

When we were down Mead, Anthony, Story and few others for shorter stints, that was "an excuse." To me, we had decent depth.

I agree we lack starpower on offense. I wanted Schwarber, Alonso or KMarte, last winter. I was okay with the idea of two lesser but still real good bats- like Contreras + Bregman or Paredes/BLowe types. We only got one.

That being said, we got Durbin and Suarez instead of Bregman, and that did not seem like a bad trade-off, to me. There are many ways to win a ring that doesn't involve missing one big bat. I thought the efforts to get Mead and AR was a bold and nice attempt to fix the shortcomings on offense, but Mead got hurt and AR has not been great on O. He hasn't really even been good, but he's still 150 better than Narvaez was, so it was a boost.

I don't see the big bat like Schwarber/Alonso, this winter, and our trade chips have been cashed in already. I think Mead can be like Contreras was, and I'm hopeful AR can get over .790. Neither is likely to be "starpower" but they both can and should offer a big boost.

I'd like to see us get a big bat, but I don't think we have the budget to bring Gray back or replace him plus get the big bat type you want. If we can, sign me up for the front seat on the bandwagon.

I'll flip the point you ended with: say we get a big bat and neglect the staff, and lose the next playoff games in 2027 8-7 and 11-9. What will the excuses be then?

[Nick]

Roman Anthony

2026 $2M

2027 $4M

2028 $8M

2029 $15M

 

Lets hope he earns his keep by 2028. Right now, he's nothing more than an over-hyped player. Abreu is better at this point.

[Nick]

Let's also hope Breslow remembers what he said after last year's playoffs.

"Good teams have power"  Why are we keep playing small ball?

Power bats are needed in left, right, 3B, 1B and DH. Prioritize defense up the middle. No amount of analytics will change the old axiom.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

Let's also hope Breslow remembers what he said after last year's playoffs.

"Good teams have power"  Why are we keep playing small ball?

Power bats are needed in left, right, 3B, 1B and DH. Prioritize defense up the middle. No amount of analytics will change the old axiom.

Breslow also said that if  the Sox had shutout the Yankees, we'd still be playing  18 hours later.

Yankees didn't need 9 runs only 1 ,  because the Sox could hit long or small ball, even after Schlittler departed.

[Deja Doh]

There is no offensive player in the years FA worth going after (that was last year and we punted).  There are a handful of pitchers who will command most of the attention this year.  Resigning Sonny Gray (if he wants to be coached by idiots that don't trust him) should be a priority.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

There is no offensive player in the years FA worth going after (that was last year and we punted).  There are a handful of pitchers who will command most of the attention this year.  Resigning Sonny Gray (if he wants to be coached by idiots that don't trust him) should be a priority.  

Skubal

Gray

King

Gausman

Peralta

Suzuki

Arozarena

Jazz

Lowe

Rogers

Bednar

Morejon

Bauers

and a lot of odds and ends