Red Sox (Sandoval) vs Rangers (TBD): 09/15/26, 8:05 PM

[vegasbob]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sandoval vs deGrom was a surefire loss TBH. 

True but the way the game played out it did not have to be a loss.     Sandoval lost his way in the 2nd, but the combo of Story primarily and Anthony secondarily allowed 2 of the 4 runs on what should have been an out.

Twice Boston had bases loaded with less than 2 outs and did not score

27 batters struck out 15 times, an astounding 56% K rate, rounded up from 55.55555555%

The game was winnable by a capable playoff team.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, NHNative said:

Yup--that was a miss that should not happen--ever.

My wife and I were like--"what the heck was that".

Funny thing, but I know exactly the play you're referring and completely agree.  It cost 2 runs and the Sox lost 4-2.  The Rangers went scoreless in innings 3-8.  

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I did say it was just a dream: "It's easy to look at those stats and dream of a young Lindor type star" ... quouth myself

(it's just a way to cope in case of a nightmare)

I would say less power and steals as he won't be a 30/30 guy like peak Lindor. Maybe like 20/10 at some point?

A better comp could be Orlando Cabrera. A guy who is contact heavy, slightly below average offense, but will be fine towards the bottom of the order. His carrying tool is going to be his glove and it should keep him in the game for a long time. 

[NHNative]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Funny thing, but I know exactly the play you're referring and completely agree.  It cost 2 runs and the Sox lost 4-2.  The Rangers went scoreless in innings 3-8.  

Eggactly

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I absolutely agree with your data but not with your grandpa.  Winning isn't every thing--it's the only thing--and 2018 was the best Boston Red Sox team ever.  Their postseason record was 11-3.  

Since he was in his late 80's at the time, he was allowed to say whatever he wanted about "those bums" IMO. He was perpetually annoyed by Casas, but loved Verdugo. He was a man of contrasts. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Don't get too excited about Arias's HR% in AA as it's a little inflated. His HR rate has gone back down a little since going to AAA. In AA and lower, they are most likely using a new ball and it has caused HRs to skyrocket across every league. Many teams are putting up a record amount of HRs and playing like it's the steroid era, except it's 19 year old kids. Brannon has some of the most legit power in the system, but he's comparable to Bobby Dalbec AND less likely to draw a walk. 

5 HRs and 16 XBHs in under 150 ABs still shows decent power, but I agree.

I think POR nearly doubled their HRs from the previous season.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

5 HRs and 16 XBHs in under 150 ABs still shows decent power, but I agree.

I think POR nearly doubled their HRs from the previous season.

That's why I think he's more like a 20 HR guy peak rather than the 30 HR guy that he was showing in AA. It's still much more power than he has shown in the past and has been great for his development. 

There was big power projection on Xander. "It just sounds different coming off his bat!" He only went over 25 HR once in his career and more often than not has under 15 HR. 

Until Arias actually does it at the MLB level, it's hard to really count on it. I'll stick with my OCab comp for now. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's why I think he's more like a 20 HR guy peak rather than the 30 HR guy that he was showing in AA. It's still much more power than he has shown in the past and has been great for his development. 

There was big power projection on Xander. "It just sounds different coming off his bat!" He only went over 25 HR once in his career and more often than not has under 15 HR. 

Until Arias actually does it at the MLB level, it's hard to really count on it. I'll stick with my OCab comp for now. 

I think 17-21 year 1 and 2 might be about right, but I could see him getting to 25 by prime. I doubt he ever hits 30 in MLB, but maybe as he ages he might.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Trevor Story to me is like Cedanne to Fred Lynn,.  I can't stand that guy and can't wait for him to play for someone else.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

17 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

When I was a kid my punishment was being exiled to my room. Nowadays, punishing a kid would be to send him outside.

I hate to sound like an old guy but this really is sad to me.  And it continued as they got older.  I used to play a lot of softball, in my time there were 500-600 teams.  Now someone told me there was 269 this last season.  So sad, young people don't want to go out and play and it continued into their 20's and 30's and for the rest of their life I assume.  

[JimEd]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

5 HRs and 16 XBHs in under 150 ABs still shows decent power, but I agree.

I think POR nearly doubled their HRs from the previous season.

the Arkansas Travelers (AA affiliate of the Mariners and where i have season tix) hit more home runs this year than any other in their 125 year history. not surprisingly, 4-5 other teams in the Texas League broke their single-season HR mark.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JimEd said:

the Arkansas Travelers (AA affiliate of the Mariners and where i have season tix) hit more home runs this year than any other in their 125 year history. not surprisingly, 4-5 other teams in the Texas League broke their single-season HR mark.

No doubt, the power numbers are all in doubt.

I'm not really all tat concerned about Arias having power. 

He's a better defender than Story and anybody under control into 2027 and ML ready.

He should have a higher BA and OBP than Story and just about any other ML ready SS on the Sox.

He may or may not hit more XBHs than Story or a Monasterio/Story mix, but the rest outweighs this.

[moonslav59]

One more thing, if the ball is juiced, as it certainly must be, how about these AA pitching numbers? Should we view them as being better than they look?

OPS Against / AA Pitcher/ ERA

.597 Mullins 3.98

.678 Wehunt 3.52

.681 Paez 4.41

.690 Holobetz 4.33

.639 Halligan 4.29

Can we shave off 0.50 to 1.00 from their ERA's?

 

 

[illinoisredsox]

3 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

The walks kill him because you know he is going to give up hits and that just means that there is a lot of traffic on the basepaths. I do not want see him again until the Sox clinch a playoff spot. He didn't even make it through the lineup once. 

Unfortunately, he is due to make 2 more starts unless they go with Bello or an opener + Bello.  Right now, he'd go Sunday against the Rays and then again a week from Saturday against the Cubs.  Hopefully, next week they will be aligning things for their playoff rotation so that Saturday start could change.  After the 27th, you will not see him again. I might have a better shot at the playoff roster than Sandoval, and I haven't played competitive baseball since American Legion ball over 50 years ago (where I was strictly a bench warmer, albeit on a very good team).

He had to have gone through the lineup at least once; he went 2 2/3 (8 outs) plus he gave up 4 runs, so a minimum of 12 hitters.  I think a couple guys were left on in the 2nd and maybe again in the 3rd, so I'm guessing he saw 14-15 hitters.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One more thing, if the ball is juiced, as it certainly must be, how about these AA pitching numbers? Should we view them as being better than they look?

OPS Against / AA Pitcher/ ERA

.597 Mullins 3.98

.678 Wehunt 3.52

.681 Paez 4.41

.690 Holobetz 4.33

.639 Halligan 4.29

Can we shave off 0.50 to 1.00 from their ERA's?

It's really pitcher dependent. BA was saying that the increase of HRs could cause batters to change how they swing and pitchers change how they pitch. May see some players really fall off the map at AAA.

Aside from Halligan, the pitchers mentioned have lower or equal ERA's at AAA. You might expect that ERA to go up at a more challenging level.

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Leon - 89 G, -0.6 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Vaz - 80 G, -1.1 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR

Swihart - 82 G, -0.1 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Kinsler - 37 G (deadline acquisition), -0.3 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR, dreadful in the postseason too

Nunez - 127 G, -0.8 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR

Pomeranz - 74 IP, -0.7 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR

C and 2B flat out stunk for that team TBH. Pretty sure grampa called them bums at the time and he was right to do so. 

Pointing out the under performers on any team does nothing to dispell the fact that people will inherently find something to complain about, actually it reinforces it.  The ideal was that some people just can't be happy. 

It's an online sports forum, I get it, and to be fair this team deserves critique.  They can certainly use more power. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pointing out the under performers on any team does nothing to dispell the fact that people will inherently find something to complain about, actually it reinforces it.  The ideal was that some people just can't be happy. 

It's an online sports forum, I get it, and to be fair this team deserves critique.  They can certainly use more power. 

The 2018 team had some bums. The 2018 team in totality were not bums. I think it's fair to critique a specific performance "they were bums tonight" after a bad loss. I think it wouldn't be fair to critique them as a whole. 

I don't remember pumpsie being on the forum in 2018 so I can't tell you if he was calling them flops back then as well. 🤷‍♂️

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No doubt, the power numbers are all in doubt.

I'm not really all tat concerned about Arias having power. 

He's a better defender than Story and anybody under control into 2027 and ML ready.

He should have a higher BA and OBP than Story and just about any other ML ready SS on the Sox.

He may or may not hit more XBHs than Story or a Monasterio/Story mix, but the rest outweighs this.

I approve of this postage!

And I'll take MVP's Orlando Cabrera comp any day. OCab was not only a clutch contributor with the bat in the '04 postseason, but absolute money with the glove. He made every tough play and shoved it in New York's face.

Now about Roman Anthony... at times he looks like he could be a future JD Martinez -- who exceeded 40 HRs and a .330 batting average in 2018, with average OF defense at best. BUT...

JD's 14-year 162-game MLB averages: 3 WAR, 33 HR, 106 RBI, .863 OPS.

JD Drew may be pushing it: 14-year averages: 4.1 WAR, 25-82 .873.

I'd even take another Trot Nixon: 12-year averages: 3.1 WAR, 20-82 .828.

At least give us Troy O'Leary: 11 years, 1 WAR, 17-80 .780....

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The 2018 team had some bums. The 2018 team in totality were not bums. I think it's fair to critique a specific performance "they were bums tonight" after a bad loss. I think it wouldn't be fair to critique them as a whole. 

I don't remember pumpsie being on the forum in 2018 so I can't tell you if he was calling them flops back then as well. 🤷‍♂️

I see your point and I think I agree.  While people certainly may have an affinity to be more pessimisstic or optimistic its very natural for people to react to bad performances "HE'S A BUM!!!!" but not exactly really think that about him.  That's fair.  I withdrawl my complaint. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I see your point and I think I agree.  While people certainly may have an affinity to be more pessimisstic or optimistic its very natural for people to react to bad performances "HE'S A BUM!!!!" but not exactly really think that about him.  That's fair.  I withdrawl my complaint. 

There's a difference between watching a game and venting about a player you don't like and just being so overly negative that it distorts your view of a successful season. I try to give people a lot of grace for their behavior in game threads. Most people enjoy watching the Red Sox and want them to win. It's only a small minority of people that believe the sky is always falling or that the only good season is one that ends in a parade. 

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/16/2026 at 3:10 PM, mvp 78 said:

Since he was in his late 80's at the time, he was allowed to say whatever he wanted about "those bums" IMO. He was perpetually annoyed by Casas, but loved Verdugo. He was a man of contrasts. 

Casas had the one good year, 2023, but even then his fielding was suspect.  Right now he makes Ellsbury look like one of the healthiest MLB players ever.  

I liked Verdugo at first if only because I remembered Elena Verdugo from Meet Millie (radio and TV and later Marcus Welby MD.