How deep could these Sox REALLY go?

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

This is how I see it. 

I had little faith we'd beat them in NYC, but if Judge is out, it's a massive stroke of luck.

Almost counters the Sox massive stroke of bad luck in building a pitching/defense team that watched its ace pitch 6 games and go down for the year…

[moonslav59]

What a difference 2 days makes.

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking of doing this research, so thanks for saving the effort.

Once again, the accountants get no respect:)

Actually, I only answered because it troubles me when the answers are really intuitive and probably don't need any research.  Gaspar has hit 9 since the ASB.  9 in 60 games is a very pedestrian 24 per 160 games.  I assume every team has a hitter with a higher pace.  It would be fairly likely we'd improve our overall position, and very unlikely we would decline (relatively).

That said, it was a good rotisserie exercise.  In the few teams that I checked, there were some players with horrible 1st halfs and outstanding 2nd halfs.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Once again, the accountants get no respect:)

Actually, I only answered because it troubles me when the answers are really intuitive and probably don't need any research.  Gaspar has hit 9 since the ASB.  9 in 60 games is a very pedestrian 24 per 160 games.  I assume every team has a hitter with a higher pace.  It would be fairly likely we'd improve our overall position, and very unlikely we would decline (relatively).

That said, it was a good rotisserie exercise.  In the few teams that I checked, there were some players with horrible 1st halfs and outstanding 2nd halfs.

To me, a better research project would be to deduct HRs from all teams the HHRs from guys who will be missing the playoffs due to injury.

[JoeBrady]

On 9/16/2026 at 4:00 PM, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather Olds, Moran or Gamboa in the bullpen than Sandoval or Bennett. 

Bennett could be a G1 starter in the ALDS.  The ERA isn't pretty, but he has a 35/4 K/W in h is last 33 IPs.  I'd need to examine the 7 HRs in 33 IPs to see if they were random, or hammered, but the 35/4 is as good as it gets.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Bennett could be a G1 starter in the ALDS.  The ERA isn't pretty, but he has a 35/4 K/W in h is last 33 IPs.  I'd need to examine the 7 HRs in 33 IPs to see if they were random, or hammered, but the 35/4 is as good as it gets.

I do think Bennett hit a wall, but that is not always the same as being toast for the rest of the season.

We can afford to rest him, but the issue, to me, is that we may not have time to see if he has gotten over it.

As of now, Bennett makes my 8 man pen, but in reality, for the NYY series, it will be a 9-10 man pen, as we only need 3 starter.

I think we go with 12 pitchers and 14 everyday players in NYC.

Gray-Tolle-Suarez are the 3 starters:

2 long men: Bello & Bennett (not Sandoval)

4 middle men: Weissert, Moran, Gamboa & Olds/Sandoval 

2 8th inning men: Whitlock & Miller

Closer: Chapman

(I doubt Guerrero, Slaten, Houck, Crochet or Oviedo have time to return.)

 

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

This is how I see it. 

I had little faith we'd beat them in NYC, but if Judge is out, it's a massive stroke of luck.

They've had a lot of problems scoring without Judge.  Schlittler-Cole-Fried is as good as it gets.  But if they are scoring in the range of 4.25 rpg, then we could see a couple of 3-2 games.  Those are winnable.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They've had a lot of problems scoring without Judge.  Schlittler-Cole-Fried is as good as it gets.  But if they are scoring in the range of 4.25 rpg, then we could see a couple of 3-2 games.  Those are winnable.

The Yanks are 41-25 when Judge players.

48-39 without Judge.

Maybe this is as or more important:

Team records in starts:

20-8 Gray vs Schlitter 20-11

17-10 Suarez vs Fried 11-8

15-10 Tolle vs Warren 19-9, Rodon 9-6 or Cole 10-11

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

I never like seeing anyone miss the playoffs due to injury, but this greatly improves our chances at advancing.

The Yanks still have some decent to very good offensive threats but not like Judge.

Here are the top non Judge OPS players on the Yanks, in order by most PAs in 2026:

.889 Rice (39 HRs and 95 RBI)

.779 Bellinger (16 Hrs- 71 RBI)

.715 Chisholm (on IL) Thumb- about to be activated

.703 Grisham (on IL) Hammy is improving/ near ready

.666 Cabalerro

.613 A Wells (13 Hrs/31 RBI)

.772 Goldschmidt (18 HRs/50 RBO)

.618 McMahon

.759 Jones

.682 Rosario

(.769 Luis Garcia Jr is #14 in PAs but playing more, now. .676 Lombard, too)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Shots don't always work but they're worth a shot. I once had a cortizone shot in my elbow, and it felt good for about 3 days and then wore off when sheetrocking into heavy guage metal framing. 

But I wasn't trying to hit a pop-up all the way to the short porch in RF in the Bronx.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Shots don't always work but they're worth a shot. I once had a cortizone shot in my elbow, and it felt good for about 3 days and then wore off when sheetrocking into heavy guage metal framing. 

But I wasn't trying to hit a pop-up all the way to the short porch in RF in the Bronx.

I've had a couple.  They're like magic.  But the disclaimer was 'no heavy metal'.  

[MADSTORK]

No chance minus GC as a starter

yanks will win with far superior sp and the short porch in left 

Good run but too many flaws and ? Not to mention cr wc mead injuries 

I’ll quote the great Tito Francona “good luck”…

 

[mvp 78]

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

This clown. It's only been nine months since we pivoted to run preventers.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This clown. It's only been nine months since we pivoted to run preventers.

Preventing their own offense from scoring runs was probably not a good choice! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Preventing their own offense from scoring runs was probably not a good choice! 

We're resting. Except all the hitters taking fastballs down the middle and then whiffing at sweepers out of the zone -- those guys are intentionally setting up advance scouts...

... don't worry, in a few days we push the button!

[vegasbob]

The season started with an extended team wide slump and now is ending with another. 

Hard to see the reason for multiple players not hitting but this is clearly a warm weather team, not a Spring nor Fall crisp nights at Fenway team.

Luckily, they get to go South to NYC for the heat

[moonslav59]

These September swoons are now commonplace, and it's not like a GM can go out and try to add players that do well in September.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

These September swoons are now commonplace, and it's not like a GM can go out and try to add players that do well in September.

Playoff teams in the bottom 5 in Runs in September:

29th HOU

30th BOS

I guess if the Sox somehow fall to the 6th seed, it could be the most unwatchable playoff series we've seen in many, many years. 

[drewski6]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

These September swoons are now commonplace, and it's not like a GM can go out and try to add players that do well in September.

Well, we've swooned lower if we're last, right?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well, we've swooned lower if we're last, right?

Last year, they were 10th in runs in September. 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Last year, they were 10th in runs in September. 

I meant we've swooned lower than other teams have swooned this year if we are last.  

And if "this is commonplace" is meant to alleviate some anxiety about cratering out just before playoffs, I mean last year we didnt exactly carry offensive momentum into the playoffs, and I dont think its something we should strive to repeat or excuse away.

The excuses are already getting wrote.  Note the : playoffs are a crapshoot talk from people who have a bad feeling that the offense is stinky but think we should focus on the pitching.

Groundhog day.

[moonslav59]

Just get the mojo rising in the Big Apple.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Just guessing that this might have something to do with Contreras, Ceddanne, and Yoshida combining for 7 starts this month.  The 6 starters that are actually playing are at exactly league-average.

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I meant we've swooned lower than other teams have swooned this year if we are last.  

And if "this is commonplace" is meant to alleviate some anxiety about cratering out just before playoffs, I mean last year we didnt exactly carry offensive momentum into the playoffs, and I dont think its something we should strive to repeat or excuse away.

The excuses are already getting wrote.  Note the : playoffs are a crapshoot talk from people who have a bad feeling that the offense is stinky but think we should focus on the pitching.

Groundhog day.

There are studies that say momentum doesn't matter, but if this offense isn't hitting now, I don't believe it will just start hitting once the pitching gets tougher. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just guessing that this might have something to do with Contreras, Ceddanne, and Yoshida combining for 7 starts this month.  The 6 starters that are actually playing are at exactly league-average.

But Roman's back!

[UtahSox]

what are your thoughts on lineup vs NYY?

game 1: vs Schlittler

Starter: Tolle

RH Reliever available: Bello, Weissert, Olds, Whitlock

LH Reliever available: Bennett, Miller, Crochet, Chapman

1. Anthony LF

2. Gasper DH

3. Contreras 1b

4. Abreu RF

5. Rutschman C

6. Durbin 3b

7. Rafaela CF

8. Sogard 2b

9. Story SS

 

game 2: vs Fried

Starter: Gray

RH Reliever available: Bello, Weissert, Olds, Whitlock

LH Reliever available: Bennett, Miller, Crochet, Chapman

1. Anthony LF

2. Jones DH

3. Contreras 1b

4. Abreu RF

5. Rafaela CF

6. Rutschman C

7. Durbin 3b

8. Sogard 2b

9. Story SS

 

Game 3: vs Cole/Rodon 

Starter: Suarez

RH Reliever available: Bello, Weissert, Olds, Whitlock

LH Reliever available: Bennett, Miller, Crochet, Chapman (high leverage situation), Tolle (Closer)

1. Anthony LF

2. Gasper DH

3. Contreras 1b

4. Abreu RF

5. Rutschman C

6. Durbin 3b

7. Rafaela CF

8. Sogard 2b

9. Story SS

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

There are studies that say momentum doesn't matter, but if this offense isn't hitting now, I don't believe it will just start hitting once the pitching gets tougher. 

Same with the Yanks facing better pitching.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Same with the Yanks facing better pitching.

Yanks have almost twice the amount of runs in September as the Sox. Even if the Yanks are limited, the Sox should be even more limited. It will really depend on guys coming back from the IL and producing (Contreras, Rafaela) which isn't a safe bet.