How deep could these Sox REALLY go?

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's going to be pretty anti-climatic to have the season end with a first round exit at the hands of the Yankees.  Dear god I hope we spank them. 

I remember that 2016-2017 run by the team, they finished first two years in a row but just couldn't get over that hump.  JDM seemed to be the missing piece that just turned that team from great to elite. 

If they they suffer the same fate in 2026 that they did in 2025 I'd hope for something similar to that. 

I think this team is good, and built for the next few years, and with a little experience for the youngesters growing into all stars it still feels like they need one more legit piece to put them over the top. Maybe they can catch some magic this year. 

Not many FA options available. Seiya Suzuki could be an upgrade in LF. Good pull heavy guy and a patient approach. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Yup

Shouldn't we take away some HRs from other players on other teams, too?

Maybe that brings us to #12.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Shouldn't we take away some HRs from other players on other teams, too?

Maybe that brings us to #12.

No

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox have been great playing away. Having a top 3 of Suarez/Gray/Tolle gives them as good a shot as any to go into the Bronx and win. They at least have a better shot than last year. 

Absolutely.

Last year they went into the Bronx with Crochet, Bello and Connelly Early as their starters.  Bello had fallen apart in August and was on a short leash.  Early had a career total of 14 IP.  And they still made it a series with that trio…

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not many FA options available. Seiya Suzuki could be an upgrade in LF. Good pull heavy guy and a patient approach. 

But he’ll be sad that we broke up his bromance with PCA…

[Nick]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If you take out Gasper's HRs, they fall to 17th. Not sure how much time he gets in the playoffs. 

Often I speak before I have the facts!

[FredLynn]

I'd put the likelihood of advancing past the Yankmees at about 20%. Its going to be last year redux. We will have problems scoring runs like we have had off and on through most of the year. It didn't have to be this way had BRESLOW done his job. One and done is likely, unfortunately. 

But wouldn't it be sweet to eliminate the Yankmees?

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/13/2026 at 4:47 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think going to the the AL Championship round or WS is a legit expectation.

Beating the NL team coupled with already getting that far seems like a very long shot.

Playing at NYY and TBR will mean we will be underdogs, but I like our top 6 pitchers:

SP: Gray, Tolle & Suarez

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Bennett

That matches up pretty well with any team.

Defense:

3rd in DRS (TBR is #2 & NYY 14th) Sox are 8th in OAA with no AL playoff team better.

Offense....

Sine June 25th, the Sox are...

#1 in Runs scored in the AL (3rd in MLB) TBR is #7 and NYY #27.

#1 in OPS in AL (4th in MLB) TBR 6th & NYY 29th

Very persuasive--terrific stats.  

[Maxbialystock]

57 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I'd put the likelihood of advancing past the Yankmees at about 20%. Its going to be last year redux. We will have problems scoring runs like we have had off and on through most of the year. It didn't have to be this way had BRESLOW done his job. One and done is likely, unfortunately. 

But wouldn't it be sweet to eliminate the Yankmees?

Pessimistic, which is your norm.  But not that far off base because the Yankees are in fact a tough team with great pitching and Judge back in the lineup.   It could well be last year redux--but don't forget that the Sox came very close to winning game 2 and the series.  

I think Breslow did his job, but injuries to Crochet and Anthony, our two best players last season, hurt this season.  

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Absolutely.

Last year they went into the Bronx with Crochet, Bello and Connelly Early as their starters.  Bello had fallen apart in August and was on a short leash.  Early had a career total of 14 IP.  And they still made it a series with that trio…

Well said--you and mvp78 and moonslav.  

[drewski6]

Room: We have more thump lately
MVP: Well if we bench Gasper, that goes away
Moon: Well other teams are going to bench their thumpers too
MVP: No
Room: Crickets

Do I need to say it?  How about, and hear me out, we dont bench Gasper?

[drewski6]

Our pitching will be fine, our hitting will make/break us.

[NHNative]

4 hours ago, Nick said:

Often I speak before I have the facts!

I am confused. Yes--no--maybe. What the heck is going on.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No

Even ones that are out for the end of the season and playoffs?

Sounds kinds lop-sided.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Pessimistic, which is your norm.  But not that far off base because the Yankees are in fact a tough team with great pitching and Judge back in the lineup.   It could well be last year redux--but don't forget that the Sox came very close to winning game 2 and the series.  

I think Breslow did his job, but injuries to Crochet and Anthony, our two best players last season, hurt this season.  

It’s realism, not pessimism. We will not be favored against the Yankees, and rightfully so. They are a more talented team. We can almost match their pitching but we don’t have the bats to compete with them, especially in NY. If BresLOW had done his job we would have had another excellent offensive player or two and this series would probably have been played at Fenway-or not at all if we finished first. Obviously losing Crochet and Anthony etc hurt but all teams have injuries. So the injury excuse doesn’t wash. It is what it is now and in all likelihood it’s another one and done. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

On 9/14/2026 at 10:46 AM, FredLynn said:

COULD we beat the Yankmees? Sure. But we will be heavy underdogs against them and I certainly wouldn’t bet a penny on our chances. I hate to admit it but they are better than us. More talented-especially with Judge back. The most likely scenario is last year redux. One and done. 
And that’s unacceptable.

If Fred predicts the Sox will lose the Yankem series, I now feel more confident they won't lose that series.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If Fred predicts the Sox will lose the Yankem series, I now feel more confident they won't lose that series.

He's close to 68-82, so good point.

Same guy who projected we'd miss the playoffs.

How many people thought we'd make the playoffs? 

Fangraphs Ring winners:

AL: 10.1% TBR, 9.3% NYY, 6.3% BOS, 4.2% HOU

NL: 25.9% LAD, 13.4% MIL, 7.3% PHI, 5.2% CHC, ATL 4.9%

Sportsbook has us 5th (behind TBR and ahead of CHC)

[vegasbob]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If Fred predicts the Sox will lose the Yankem series, I now feel more confident they won't lose that series.

REALLY go ?  As far as Schlittler and Cole or Fried want to play with you while jerking your string

Talking to the checkswingers and chasers

 

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, FredLynn said:

It’s realism, not pessimism. We will not be favored against the Yankees, and rightfully so. They are a more talented team. We can almost match their pitching but we don’t have the bats to compete with them, especially in NY. If BresLOW had done his job we would have had another excellent offensive player or two and this series would probably have been played at Fenway-or not at all if we finished first. Obviously losing Crochet and Anthony etc hurt but all teams have injuries. So the injury excuse doesn’t wash. It is what it is now and in all likelihood it’s another one and done. 

You went from 20% likely vs the yankess to "not favored against the yankees, and rightfully so"

Thats quite a fallback, with a lot of middle ground in between.  Also, realism and pessimism are not mutually exclusive.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You went from 20% likely vs the yankess to "not favored against the yankees, and rightfully so"

Thats quite a fallback, with a lot of middle ground in between.  Also, realism and pessimism are not mutually exclusive.

We were not favored to make the playoffs halfway through the season, so we saw first hand how things in baseball can change in major ways.... sometimes overnight.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

You went from 20% likely vs the yankess to "not favored against the yankees, and rightfully so"

Thats quite a fallback, with a lot of middle ground in between.  Also, realism and pessimism are not mutually exclusive.

If I think that the chances of beating the Yankees are about 20% then we are not favored-right?

[Behindenemylines]

To beat the Yankees in the wild card round they need to match the Yankee starters and get into the bullpen. Plus they need to get a big hit when they get traffic on the base paths. They are going to have to score more than two runs to win a game. The season has shown when they score 4 or more runs they are tough to beat!

[NHNative]

Who are our best three pitchers against the Yankees?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Who are our best three pitchers against the Yankees?

Gray, Tolle, Suarez

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Gray, Tolle, Suarez

I reckon they are our best against any team. Am I wrong or are their factors my old brain doesn't consider?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I reckon they are our best against any team. Am I wrong or are their factors my old brain doesn't consider?

Right now, Bennett is too fatigued. I would consider only adding Sandoval to the playoff roster as a bulk innings guy in case a starter dropped a deuce on the mound and they wanted to punt a game. I wouldn't start Bello in Yankee Stadium 3 under any circumstances. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I reckon they are our best against any team. Am I wrong or are their factors my old brain doesn't consider?

Adding Bennett to the pen could be all the pen needs to outshine any other team's pen.

Chapman

Whitlock & Miller

Bennett & Bello

(Guerrero, Moran & maybe 1 from Crochet/Houck/Slaten)

You don't usually need 11-13 pitchers in the playoffs. If we do, they won't be the reason we lose.

I like our top 7-8 pitchers as much as anyone else, or at least it's very close.

I like our defense. (11th in last 81 games according to fangraphs. TBR is slightly better. CLE is 5th. No other AL contender is top 14.)

Our offense has been top 10 over half season (81 games.)

#3 in Runs scored (#1 in AL)

#8 in OPS (#2 in AL behind TBR)

Last 81 games:

53-28 BOS (#1 Pitching fWAR/#2 ERA-)

50-30 TBR (#9 Pitching fWAR/#4 ERA-)

50-31 MIL

46-32 CHC

45-32 LAD

44-36 NYY (#3 Pitching fWAR/#1 ERA-)

Yanks are 25th in Runs scored and 28th in OPS over last 81 games, and posters are crying about the Sox offense. Sure, they got Judge back, but our offense should improve with Anthony, AR and Story added over the last few weeks.

We have a well balanced team with a playoff roster that looks very tough.

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Adding Bennett to the pen could be all the pen needs to outshine any other team's pen.

In a 3 game series, I'm resting Bennett in hopes that he's less fatigued for the rest of the playoffs. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

34 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I reckon they are our best against any team. Am I wrong or are their factors my old brain doesn't consider?

They're the Sox 3 best pitchers period.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

They're the Sox 3 best pitchers period.

And I would definitely put Tolle in between the 2 spinners.