A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, notin said:

I see Arias to SS, Story to 2b, Mead to DH, Anthony to LF, Duran to … another team.

I could see that happening.

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR (OPS) at 2B

2.0 (15th) 2B (.708) It was .667 from '19-'25

7 different 2Bman in 2026

.956 Sogard

.760 Romy

.747 Seigler

.714 Monasterio

.564 Mayer and .541 IKF (.500 Mead in 2 PA)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR (OPS) at 2B

2.0 (15th) 2B (.708) .667 from '19-'25

 

 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox fWAR (OPS) at 2B

2.0 (15th) 2B (.708) It was .667 from '19-'25

7 different 2Bman in 2026

.956 Sogard

.760 Romy

.747 Seigler

.714 Monasterio

.564 Mayer and .541 IKF (.500 Mead in 2 PA)

 

 

They had some good 2b performances from '19-'25 (Kiké, Story, Romy, Holt) mixed in with some really rancid ones (Hamilton, Marco Hernadez, Peraza, Marwin Gonzalez, Vaughn Grissom, Eduardo Nunez).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't like giving away games in September to rest key guys for October.

First, you have to get to October -- and nothing is guaranteed with this hot and cold roller coaster there's no tomorrow like there was yesterday offense... and burnt out pitching staff, 

Second, when has this strategy ever worked in baseball autumns: let the hares sprint to the finish line and we'll tortoise in our shells and then turn on the jets before it's too late...

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They had some good 2b performances from '19-'25 (Kiké, Story, Romy, Holt) mixed in with some really rancid ones (Hamilton, Marco Hernadez, Peraza, Marwin Gonzalez, Vaughn Grissom, Eduardo Nunez).

Agreed, but very few even came close to a "wire to wire" decent 2Bman. The ones that did okay for half or shorter seasons sometimes were not good on D or O. Many teams have used 2B as a mix position, but even the 2018 team saw Nunez start just 70 games at 2B (Holt 44, Kinsler 31 and others 5.) 2017 was the last season we had a decent 2Bman play over 95 games (Pedey.)

This pretty much says it all: in the last 9 seasons COMBINED, nobody has even played in more than 151 games at 2B. Only 3 have played over 99.

151 Arroyo (1.6 fWAR)

112 Holt (1.8)

105 Valdez (-0.6)

99 Nunez (-0.9)

94 Story (2.5 came closest to Pedey and the last good half season.)

86 DHam (0.6)

72 Kike (2.1 was also a good near alf season.)

68 Chavis (0.5)

68 Romy (0.9 is not a bad fWAR/Gm)

57 KC (-0.1)

50 Sogard (1.5 is very good fWAR/Gm)

49 Mayer (0.2)

44 Seigler (0.6)

38 Marco (-0.2) 36 Kinsler (0.1) 35 Reyes (-0.2) 34 Marwin (-0.4) 32 Raf (-1.0)  30 Grissom (-0.5)

29 Arauz (-1.0)

25 IKF (0.1) 25 Urias (0.2 on a deadline stab in the dark) 23 Peraza (-0.2)

10-16 gms: Iggy (0.6 is outstanding) -0.3 Westbrook & Yolmer, -0.4 Lin, -0.1 Monasterio & J Turner

16 other players played 1-8 games: 62 games total (-1.0)

Basically, we've seen two good alf seasons from Story and Kike (166 gms and 4.6 fWAR) and pretty good play from Arroyo & Holt (263/3.4 WAR) We can cobble together 3-4 other shorter-term 2Bman and come up with a decent season, but overall we've seen 9 seasons of failure after failure. Once Bogey bolted, we could say the same for SS.

These two areas seem poised to be much improved, and the depth is actually absurdly deep.

2027>>

2B: Mead, (Story & Sogard,) IKF, Seigler, Monasterio, Romy, (Cheng) Rodgers, Romero

SS: Arias, Story, Sogard (IKF, Monasterio) Cheng, Godbout

 

[moonslav59]

Many of these sample sizes range from tiny to small, but this is rather remarkable:

AUGUST OPS (Team .791)

1.671 Gasper (42 PAs- was demoted then promoted in AUG.)

1.556 Anthony (9- just came off the 60 IL) 

1.389 Rogers (9- was DFA'd)

1.284 Jones (25- can't buy more playing time.)

1.259 Story (8- just came of 60 IL)

.971 Abreu (126- maybe the first player expected to be top 5ish)

.892 Yoshida (50- on IL and likely out until '27)

.802 Sogard (113- How can we not start this guy FT?)

.789 Duran (103- shutting up the naysayers, myself included)

.772 Seigler (44- demoted)

9 of the top 10 are rather surprising- as bench players or players on the IL we thought might not comeback in '26.)

________________________

.726 Durbin (120- in a downturn)

.715 Contreras (98- on IL)

.712 Rafaela (131- been steady almost all season long)

_________________________

.603 Wong (51- reverting back)

.578 Monasterio (105- It was nice while it lasted- JULY)

.500 Rutschman (59- been a huge letdown)

.499 White (33- has 2 arbs left)

.331 Narvaez (3- traded away)

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Selected Leaders since June 24, 2026:

Ranking among 428 batters  40+ PAs

1. Gasper 1.483

2. J Jones 1.333

6. Mead 1.019

13. Devers .953

15. Alonso .941

24. Bregman .912

26. Willson .903

38. Yoshida .875

56. Jeffers .836 (Alt target for Rut?)

81. Abreu .806

91. Sogard .798

96. Meidrothh .794

105 Paredes .789

119 Durbin .779

134 Monasterio .765

144 Betts & Rafaela .755

154 Seigler .748

159 KMarte .746

178 Bichette .735

184 N Lowe & Hoerner .730

210 Neto .708 & 220 G Torres .699

234 Grissom .694 (just below the mean)

Ooops:

259 Ozuna .670

280 DHam .660

290 B Monty .651

302 Blaze Jordan .643 & 304 Duran .641

307 Tucker .640

315 Teel .627

323 Teoscar & Bogey .618

331 Bellinger .613

348 Vladdy .601 (Where is the poster who demanded we trade)

349 Cheng at .600 is Vladdyesque!

351 Vaz .596

365 Rut .578

369 Romy .572

403 Volpe .490

410 Kike .460

416 Kurtz .438

419 T Gray .425

424 Narvaez .395 (almost 200 pts worse than Rut!)

426 Polanco .359 (Who is the poster who mentioned him 10+ times?)

[Randy Red Sox]

On 8/30/2026 at 5:20 PM, moonslav59 said:

Would the offense be okay with Anthony, Story and Mead?

1. L Anthony DH

2. R Mead 2B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. S Rutschman C

6. R Rafaela 2B

7. R Durbin 3B

8. L Duran LF/ R White or Jones LF

9. R Story SS/ S Sogard SS

  

who's that guy in the 5 hole?

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

who's that guy in the 5 hole?

 

The dream of a dream that looks more like a nightmare.

Rafaela 5th?

Durbin 6th?

Duran 7th?

Rut 8th?

[Randy Red Sox]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The dream of a dream that looks more like a nightmare.

Rafaela 5th?

Durbin 6th?

Duran 7th?

Rut 8th?

fast looking like one of the biggest heists in Red Sox history.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

fast looking like one of the biggest heists in Red Sox history.

Don't the return players have to do something to make that be true?

[moonslav59]

The Sox IL, DFA'd & AAA team:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Burgos/Paez

RP: Whitlock, Slaten, Guerrero, Kelly, Rivera, Samaniego, Bastardo

C: Rogers & Baez

1B: Contreras & Romy

2B: Mead & Rodgers

SS: Arias & Cheng

3B: Seigler & Romero

LF: Yoshida

CF: Eaton & Ward

RF: Campbell

DH: Casas & Brannon

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't the return players have to do something to make that be true?

so you still support the trade??.  I said from day 1 it was a bad trade. History tells us there is almost no chance JH would buck up to sign him as a FA and given what we have seen of him to date why would he??  Not to mention we stand to lose a good portion of his one year we have him due to a possible/probable lock out.  Terrible trade--terrible !!!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

so you still support the trade??.  I said from day 1 it was a bad trade. History tells us there is almost no chance JH would buck up to sign him as a FA and given what we have seen of him to date why would he??  Not to mention we stand to lose a good portion of his one year we have him due to a possible/probable lock out.  Terrible trade--terrible !!!

Hard to support the trade, but I still think it made some sense at the time.

We needed help on O after the Mead injury. Our catcher offense was horrible, and Wong was not likely to stay over .700. (He has not.)

It was a big gambe at the time, because it had 2 hinges:

Rut's health

Rut's questionable offense

To me, the worst part will be if what we gave up turns out good>great. I like the effort, but the results have sucked, so far.

I'd rather see Mean & Rut trades than Bloom's nada.

Your point about JH not bucking up for big signings is why we need to try big trades.

[Randy Red Sox]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to support the trade, but I still think it made some sense at the time.

We needed help on O after the Mead injury. Our catcher offense was horrible, and Wong was not likely to stay over .700. (He has not.)

It was a big gambe at the time, because it had 2 hinges:

Rut's health

Rut's questionable offense

To me, the worst part will be if what we gave up turns out good>great. I like the effort, but the results have sucked, so far.

I'd rather see Mean & Rut trades than Bloom's nada.

Your point about JH not bucking up for big signings is why we need to try big trades.

in any event this trade stunk for several reasons. The O's already had their long term C in sight and it wasn't AR. There is no way they were going to sign him as a FA so instead they got one A+ SP prospect and one A-SP prospect PLUS a BU C likely to put up as good or better #'s than AR plus a 4th player as well. We have already released the scrap B/U C the O's threw in the deal.  HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE trade !!!

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

in any event this trade stunk for several reasons. The O's already had their long term C in sight and it wasn't AR. There is no way they were going to sign him as a FA so instead they got one A+ SP prospect and one A-SP prospect PLUS a BU C likely to put up as good or better #'s than AR plus a 4th player as well. We have already released the scrap B/U C the O's threw in the deal.  HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE trade !!!

I'm not sure why the O's not wanting to resign Rut matters much.

Word is the Yanks were ready to overpay, too.

The O's worked the big overpay well. Most deadline trades range from overpay to huge overpays. That's why dealing in winter is better, and Brez did a lot of that.

The trade was a big gamble. It looks horrible now. It can only become close to a wash, if all the guys we gave don't work out.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have had a bunch of injuries, but maybe the killer one was Mead.

Probably no Mead injury, then no need to try and beef up the O with the AR trade. We trade for a SP'er instead.

[vegasbob]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have had a bunch of injuries, but maybe the killer one was Mead.

Probably no Mead injury, then no need to try and beef up the O with the AR trade. We trade for a SP'er instead.

Mead's freak injury has affected the 2026 season in terms of roster more than most think

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Mead's freak injury has affected the 2026 season in terms of roster more than most think

Mead does give me better hopes for 2027, but I wasn't ready to give on 2026. Nor Brez, as evidenced by the AR gamble.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Mead's freak injury has affected the 2026 season in terms of roster more than most think

IDK. I think he'd be a really bad 2b. Not sure the MIF situation would be great defensively if he was there. He's more of a future DH IMO. I'd project for 27 that Roman would play more OF and Mead more DH. 

[JoeBrady]

On 9/1/2026 at 3:57 PM, drewski6 said:

There are loose plans but the real plan is to stay flexible and nimble.

IMO, they did exactly that.  Half the off-season criticisms were about us missing out on 4-5 different Plan A's.  Flexible and nimble is the opposite of having a distinct Plan A.

[JoeBrady]

On 9/2/2026 at 9:34 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't like giving away games in September to rest key guys for October.

First, you have to get to October -- and nothing is guaranteed with this hot and cold roller coaster there's no tomorrow like there was yesterday offense... and burnt out pitching staff, 

Second, when has this strategy ever worked in baseball autumns: let the hares sprint to the finish line and we'll tortoise in our shells and then turn on the jets before it's too late...

Yup, I remember when the Freds would advocate 'pedal to the metal, in April.

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Yup, I remember when the Freds would advocate 'pedal to the metal, in April.

I don't think pedal to the metal works in April, but you can't dig yourself the hole that the Sox dug themselves in. The reason the Sox are having to rest their stars now is because they are overworked from having to climb back in. They had to treat every July game like it was the playoffs rather than the regular season. 

They aren't as bad as they were in April and May, but they aren't as good as they were in July either. The question is what is this team going forward? 

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't the return players have to do something to make that be true?

RSN don't need no stinking results to make decisions.  FWIW, I like Eyanson, but I don't get the love for Witherspoon.  Good pick at #15, imo, but very shaky results so far.  My guess is that, had we not made the trade, the same folks would be complaining about his 4.4 BB9.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think pedal to the metal works in April, but you can't dig yourself the hole that the Sox dug themselves in. The reason the Sox are having to rest their stars now is because they are overworked from having to climb back in. They had to treat every July game like it was the playoffs rather than the regular season. 

They aren't as bad as they were in April and May, but they aren't as good as they were in July either. The question is what is this team going forward? 

This ,535 team seems about right…

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think pedal to the metal works in April, but you can't dig yourself the hole that the Sox dug themselves in. The reason the Sox are having to rest their stars now is because they are overworked from having to climb back in. They had to treat every July game like it was the playoffs rather than the regular season. 

They aren't as bad as they were in April and May, but they aren't as good as they were in July either. The question is what is this team going forward? 

Fair points, but like Pr. Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.  Tito always rested guys (and got excoriated for it).  But like you said, you don't want that 5.5 games out of the playoffs towards the end of June to become 8-9 games back at the TDL.  TBH, I don't think there is any right or wrong strategies.

[notin]

On 9/2/2026 at 7:56 AM, mvp 78 said:

They had some good 2b performances from '19-'25 (Kiké, Story, Romy, Holt) mixed in with some really rancid ones (Hamilton, Marco Hernadez, Peraza, Marwin Gonzalez, Vaughn Grissom, Eduardo Nunez).

Kike started 78 games at 2b in two plus years.  Not so willing to consider him a 2b…

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK. I think he'd be a really bad 2b. Not sure the MIF situation would be great defensively if he was there. He's more of a future DH IMO. I'd project for 27 that Roman would play more OF and Mead more DH. 

If Mead takes the field next year, corner INF is (hopefully) more likely…

[notin]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

so you still support the trade??.  I said from day 1 it was a bad trade. History tells us there is almost no chance JH would buck up to sign him as a FA and given what we have seen of him to date why would he??  Not to mention we stand to lose a good portion of his one year we have him due to a possible/probable lock out.  Terrible trade--terrible !!!

I agree the Sox gave up a lot, but when all the dust settles it might wind up the Sox gave up Eyanson and a bunch of career minor leaguers for Rutschman, too…