CONFIRMED: Red Sox Acquiring Adley Rutschman In Stunning AL East Blockbuster

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So wait a second .. the price of Rutschman went from being part of a package for two months of an All Star 2b, to going alone for 3 of the Sox top 6 prospects plus a starting catcher?

Definitely not real, but it's fun to pretend it was! 

[mvp 78]

From FanGraphs:

Winner: Craig Breslow’s Sudden Aggression
I’m not sure how Boston’s season is going to turn out, but it’s been a delight to watch as a neutral observer. The Sox made industry standard, consultant-approved team building moves all winter, trying to stack up accumulations in value and Build Sustainably Through Agile Thinking, or whatever buzzword you’d call it these days. To be clear, I liked those moves. I wrote about them this winter. But they were based on playing the odds, taking a long view, trying to make improvements while minding the cost. Then things started to fall apart. The Sox started as cold as possible. Breslow fired Alex Cora and most of his staff before the end of April. The front office drew plenty of criticism both for the way they handled the firings and the timing. Breslow’s focus on analytics, his team construction, probably his Dunkin’ order of choice, it all came under scrutiny. But July saw them go 21-4, spurred by a 15-game win streak. Suddenly they found themselves in a playoff spot and with a good farm system, and Breslow said screw it, I can go get Adley Rutschman, why wait?

The first sign that the Sox were going to be aggressive buyers was the Connelly Early/Curtis Mead trade, which is a good avatar for all of Boston’s consequential moves this deadline. In terms of pure surplus value, I like the Nats’ side of it. But from the perspective of trying to be good this year, the Sox won it for sure, even if Mead broke his hand right afterwards and ruined their plans.

The deal for Rutschman was their big swing, and while it might be another overpay, only the Dodgers added a better player at the deadline, and the Red Sox even get Adley next year too. Likewise, I was shocked to see Mayer moved for a reliever, albeit a solid lefty, but clearly the Red Sox had had enough of looking at the little cell in their spreadsheet that told them how valuable Mayer was to the team, and decided to get out while the getting was still good, improving the team in the process.

We might look back on these trades in a few years and say that Boston overpaid. Certainly, the industry consensus leans that way now, and I agree. But I’m not all that confident, because I’m not all that confident in my evaluations of the 10 players the Red Sox dealt. I am sure that they made themselves better this year, and that’s the point of this exercise. You do all the boring, accumulative stuff in the slow times so that you can move fast and break things in the heat of a playoff race. I find myself in the strange place of agreeing with Craig Breslow’s strategy (go for it) while being unsure of his tactics (at what cost?), after his entire tenure until now had been marked by my thinking the opposite (great short-term tactics, but not enough long-term plan).

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So wait a second .. the price of Rutschman went from being part of a package for two months of an All Star 2b, to going alone for 3 of the Sox top 6 prospects plus a starting catcher?

I certainly wouldn't believe every dude with a blue checkmark on X. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I certainly wouldn't believe every dude with a blue checkmark on X. 

The same poster also broke the following deals yesterday:

1. Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers 

2. Ben Rice to the Padres for prospects

3. Cam Schlittler to the Twins

That Jazz post popped off though. Glad he got one! 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The same poster also broke the following deals yesterday:

1. Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers 

2. Ben Rice to the Padres for prospects

3. Cam Schlittler to the Twins

That Jazz post popped off though. Glad he got one! 

Color me gullible…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Color me gullible…

Do your own research. It was a funny post though. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I still find it puzzling the high BTV assigned to some prospects who have proven nothing at the MLB level.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I still find it puzzling the high BTV assigned to prospects who have proven nothing at the MLB level.

I believe Mayer had a BTV of around 60 million before he ever put on a major league uniform.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I still find it puzzling the high BTV assigned to prospects who have proven nothing at the MLB level.

They do have trade value…

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I still find it puzzling the high BTV assigned to some prospects who have proven nothing at the MLB level.

Projecting baseball players is a wildly inexact science.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But the debate between JB and MVP from my third party eyes, appears to be whether you are paying that premium because of the brand name/name

Let me give a better example.  When I see a guy like Mead hit really well in 2026, I tend to dismiss his poor hitting from 2023-2025.  Why?  Because I see some very good minor league production.  When I see a guy that I might've projected for 25+ HRs and a .275, then I am not surprised when he has 25+ HRs and a .275.

And just for fun, if Mayer hits 18 HRs and hits .260 and plays good defense, I won't be surprised.  Because that is what his pedigree says he can do.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Those numbers are scary and not worth the package sent to BAL. Clearly we need better numbers

The way I look at it, if get his career numbers, I'll be happy.  If we get his 2026 numbers (injuries aside), I'll be happy.  You want some interesting numbers:

• Career K/W =1.333  Hrs/600 = 19.47
• Career K/W =1.333  Hrs/600 = 19.43

He might be the guy he use to be.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, a700hitter said:

 

I'm calling BS on that one.  I see no reason the O's would do that.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Definitely not real, but it's fun to pretend it was! 

Good thing you're here, I think everyone else bought it LOL

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm calling BS on that one.  I see no reason the O's would do that.

Correct, it was an internet prankster.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

2. Ben Rice to the Padres for prospects

3. Cam Schlittler to the Twins

Before the day is out, someone will be blaming Breslow for not landing Rice and Schlittler.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I still find it puzzling the high BTV assigned to some prospects who have proven nothing at the MLB level.

I'll be glad to engage in a pro-for-pro debate on almost anyone.  And I expect to be real close.

But I have a -0- chance of properly projecting prospects, particularly those further away.  The only ones that can put a number on Eyanson are professional scouts.  And I bet that even they would have seriously fluctuating values.  BTV probably has the same chance as I do.  -0-.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No, he stinks this year. Defense has been fine. 

Only because you cherry-pick a sample size and not his .764 season, which is over 200 points better than Narvaez.

You strategically focused on 2024, 2025 and just his recent 2026.

[SoxPhan]

8 hours ago, cp176 said:

I don’t think Narvaez going will have any effect on this team at all.  Now, bringing a new starting outfielder as well as a new starting shortstop etc.  could have a great affect on a group of guys who have played as a team for a good stretch of time now.  We’ll see how it all works out.  

Narvaez was in that group of guys. Has was the one that has to know every pitcher on the staff like the back of his hand and know how to get the best out of them. Rutschman is a great catcher with a great baseball IQ, so if anyone can learn quick it's him. He'll also have 2 or 3 weeks left on the IL to do his homework. But to just say that removing our #1 catcher in the hottest streak in franchise history will affect chemistry less than a fielder or even two, is a leap of faith. Here's hoping.
 

[SoxPhan]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't disagree, but part of that is offset by AR having a great defensive reputation and knowing all the ALE hitters.

Still has to learn the staff. There is a reason teams don't usually mess with their catching at the deadline unless they absolutely have to. And catchers with an injury concern? Even less, if ever. 

It's a bold move cotton, let's see if it pays off. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Projecting baseball players is a wildly inexact science.

Unless you use the WAPM…

[mvp 78]

Adley on the field for warmups.