Red Sox Can Take Solace In One Simple Fact: They Aren't the Mets

[Alex Mayes]

If you were to tell most baseball fans back in March that the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets were in a very similar situation as the season heads into July, the majority of them would have assumed that both teams were competing for the top Wild Card spot at worst in their respective leagues. Instead, we have two bottom-of-the-barrel teams who have fired their managers and have a fanbase calling for the dismissal of their General Managers/President of Baseball Operations. Alex Cora was fired on April 26 and exactly two short  months later, the Mets followed suit and dismissed Carlos Mendoza. 

While the Red Sox and Mets are in very similar places — the former enters July with a 36-46 overall record and the latter owns a 35-49 overall record — the biggest difference is how they approached roster construction heading into the 2026 season and the money they have tied up in veteran players. Obviously, roster construction doesn’t sit at the feet of either Alex Cora or Carlos Mendoza, so now that the managers are gone, fans have turned their ire at the front office. Craig Breslow has built a pitching powerhouse in Boston that has been backed up by capable defense around the infield thanks to additions of Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. David Stearns also preached “run prevention” as he looked to construct the 2026 Mets, but things haven’t gone well for them in that department. 

According to FanGraphs, the Mets currently have a 2026 projected payroll of $365 million. Superstar Juan Soto is under contract through 2039 for an average annual value of $51 million a season, Francisco Lindor is signed through 2031 for an AAV of $31.9 million, and recently acquired Marcus Semien through 2028 at an AAV of $24 million. In addition to that, they have Bo Bichette under contract for an AAV of $42 million. He’s not included in the main grouping because he technically can opt out of his three-year contract after this season, but with the way he’s currently playing, that’s far from a guarantee. The Mets have six arbitration-eligible players and seven who are not yet eligible for arbitration. 

If we look at those same style of numbers for the Red Sox, it paints a drastically different picture. The Red Sox have an estimated 2026 payroll of $197 million according to Fangraphs. Their four highest AAVs are owed to Garrett Crochet ($28.3 million per season through 2031), Ranger Suarez ($26 million per season through 2030 with a mutual option for 2031), Trevor Story ($23.3 million per season through 2027 with a club option for 2028), and Willson Contreras ($21.25 million per season through 2027 with a club option for 2028). They also have Sonny Gray still currently on the books at technically $41 million AAV for 2026 with a mutual option for 2027, but the Cardinals paid $21 million of his salary in the trade that sent him to Boston. The other long-term commitments the Red Sox have are for Roman Anthony through 2033 with a club option for 2034, Kristian Campbell through 2032 with club options for both 2033 and 2034, and Ceddanne Rafaela through 2031 with a club option for 2032, The Red Sox have seven arbitration-eligible players and nine players who are not yet eligible for arbitration. 

While Craig Breslow has made some missteps in his time with the Red Sox, and could very well be on his way out of town at the conclusion of the season, he’s handed out contract extensions to young players that should mostly impact the future of the organization in a positive way. The biggest potential exception to that could be Brayan Bello’s contract that keeps him in Boston through 2029 with a club option for 2030. The biggest negative on that contract is that his salary grows exceptionally starting in 2028, doubling his 2027 paycheck. Otherwise, Breslow has developed the best pitching pipeline the Red Sox have seen in ages. Both rookies Payton Tolle and Connelly Early have had breakout seasons in 2026 while Jake Bennett has pitched well for both the WooSox and the Red Sox when needed.

The biggest knock against the chief baseball officer is that he hasn’t been able to navigate the infamous outfield logjam, though that's a dead horse we won't beat right now. Most importantly, Red Sox fans are demanding and expect playoff berths year in and year out. Breslow has delivered one trip to the Wild Card round during his tenure and that may not be enough for Fenway Sports Group to justify hanging onto him for the remainder of his contract. 

Returning to Stearns, he has handed out some incredibly large contracts that haven’t aged incredibly well or have potential to hamstring the franchise in just a few seasons. They have substantial money coming off the books from now through 2029 but their treatment of All-Star Pete Alonso likely won’t be forgotten by the other homegrown players still on their roster and the free agents in the coming years. We’ve talked this much about the Mets and their issues and haven’t even begun to address their pitching woes. Both Kodai Senga and Devin Williams look like money thrown down the drain, and their highly touted group of young pitching prospects, outside of Nolan McLean, have taken significant steps back this season. 

The biggest question of all, though, knowing that we're barreling toward what will likely be an extended lockout come Dec. 1: Do either FSG or Steve Cohen feel that navigating a totally different economic landscape with someone new at the helm is worth the risk? They are the only ones that can truly answer that question, but the landscape of baseball will be completely different once we get back into action in 2027. Going with the known over the unknown is likely the safest move when evaluating your front office needs for the next season. That could mean that both Stearns and Breslow remain in place for at least an additional year.

While both organizations have big messes to clean up, at least Breslow is working with a much cleaner slate than his New York counterpart.

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[drewski6]

This is giving "Come to Cleveland, where at least we're not Detroit" vibes.  I dont hate it.

[moonslav59]

The Mets are the perfect example to the phrase, "Be careful what you wish for."

[Alex Mayes]

50 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This is giving "Come to Cleveland, where at least we're not Detroit" vibes.  I dont hate it.

I'm trying real hard to find some sort of solace in this season.

[Alex Mayes]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Mets are the perfect example to the phrase, "Be careful what you wish for."

I remember when everyone was convinced Cohen would put together a billion dollar superteam juggernaut in his first couple of seasons.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Alex Mayes said:

I'm trying real hard to find some sort of solace in this season.

I'm thinking solace will be elussive all season long.

I guess we can focus on singular players like Ceddanne, Contreras, the young SP'ers and maybe Durbin, if he keeps this up to find something to not bum out on, but yes, this is very difficult to watch.

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Alex Mayes said:

I remember when everyone was convinced Cohen would put together a billion dollar superteam juggernaut in his first couple of seasons.

The Dodger counter from the right coast.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Mets are the perfect example to the phrase, "Be careful what you wish for."

Despite that I really wanted Soto, the Mets are the epitome of why I think the hired mercenary approach can be truly horrific.

But in the bright side, Juan Soto got all that money and still gets an extra month of vacation…

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like we're pretty much in the exact same boat other than that Red Sox owners should still see a profit! 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like we're pretty much in the exact same boat other than that Red Sox owners should still see a profit! 

And that the Sox don’t have any 8 figure deals that go beyond 2027…

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

And that the Sox don’t have any 8 figure deals that go beyond 2027…

Not being snarky, but so what.  Cohen has the money, and Soto is still pretty good.

[Alex Mayes]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite that I really wanted Soto, the Mets are the epitome of why I think the hired mercenary approach can be truly horrific.

But in the bright side, Juan Soto got all that money and still gets an extra month of vacation…

I also really wanted Soto. That offseason until he signed was one of the more fun ones in recent memory. 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not being snarky, but so what.  Cohen has the money, and Soto is still pretty good.

What about Semien, who is still owed some $46mill after this season?

Or Lindor, who is going to Cooperstown, but is also already 32 and owed some $34 mill annually until 2032?

And they still have $40mill commited next year to mediocrities like Sean Manaea and Kodai Sengai.

Cohen might have the money but this is the worst use of a nine digit budget since Mars Needs Moms…

[mvp 78]

Seems like a lot of people here wanted to trade for several Mets (Vientos) and sign the FA they acquired. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Posters love to cite individual opponents who have crappy stats -- especially guys who moved to other teams recently -- but in Aesop's Fable it's just a fox failing to reach the grapes and saying they're probably sour anyway.

There's nothing shameful about being a fan hoping your baseball team acquires good players to make it better.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Posters love to cite individual opponents who have crappy stats -- especially guys who moved to other teams recently -- but in Aesop's Fable it's just a fox failing to reach the grapes and saying they're probably sour anyway.

There's nothing shameful about being a fan hoping your baseball team acquires good players to make it better.

Some of us prefer our teams improve using methods besides flexing financial muscle for multiple reasons.   First of all, when it fails, it fails long term and is almost always irreversible.  Second, it definitely distracts from the quality of the sport when everything is decided by wallets alone.  It should never come down to the biggest need for improvement for any team is to be sold to a different owner…

[Nick]

2026

Por

tland 65 (GP)

246 (AB)

43 (runs)

81

(Hits) 15 (2B)

1

(3B) 17 (HR)

44 (RBI)

5 (SB)

31 (BB)

36

(K)

 

Sure am glad that Arias is wasting good stats playing in Portland. I bet DD wouldn't let him waste his talent while the major league team is floundering. 

.329 Average, .414 OBP, .606 Slugging, 1.020 OPS

What does the analytics say Moon? Our baseball people are stupid.

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Nick said:

2026

Por

tland 65 (GP)

246 (AB)

43 (runs)

81

(Hits) 15 (2B)

1

(3B) 17 (HR)

44 (RBI)

5 (SB)

31 (BB)

36

(K)

 

Sure am glad that Arias is wasting good stats playing in Portland. I bet DD wouldn't let him waste his talent while the major league team is floundering. 

.329 Average, .414 OBP, .606 Slugging, 1.020 OPS

What does the analytics say Moon? Our baseball people are stupid.

 

You think Dombrowski would promote a 20 year old with less than 300 plate appearances above A ball all the way to MLB just because other players were struggling? I  think even DD doesn’t use desperation as an excuse to push his best young talent to reach free agency by age 27.

Just like how he didn’t call up his own top prospect (Aiden Miller) to take over for the extremely bland Alec Bohm when the Phillies were struggling…

[Nick]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

You think Dombrowski would promote a 20 year old with less than 300 plate appearances above A ball all the way to MLB just because other players were struggling? I  think even DD doesn’t use desperation as an excuse to push his best young talent to reach free agency by age 27.

Just like how he didn’t call up his own top prospect (Aiden Miller) to take over for the extremely bland Alec Bohm when the Phillies were struggling…

Is he going to face different pitchers next week? What do you have to lose? That he'll go 0-20 with 15 K's and have 20 fielding errors and his 'psyche' will be permanently damaged? Maybe he'll do worse than Mayer? Doubtful. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Nick said:

Is he going to face different pitchers next week? What do you have to lose? That he'll go 0-20 with 15 K's and have 20 fielding errors and his 'psyche' will be permanently damaged? Maybe he'll do worse than Mayer? Doubtful. 

I doubt player psyche gets damaged so readily.

But my question to you is - what do the Sox have to gain? Arias isn’t going to push them into the playoffs.  All the Sox will do is start his service clock (which may be good or bad, depending on the new CBA) and pribably burn through his option years faster.  Oh, and lose him to free agency by age 26.

Half the Sox problems were caused by inexperienced players struggling early in their careers.  The solution likely isn’t “even more inexperience!!” 
 

And no, DD wouldn’t call him up…