Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm throwing out his SF numbers at home because the park is awful for him. 

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

💯

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm throwing out his SF numbers at home because the park is awful for him. 

Reasonable point, but his home OPS is a fair amount higher than his road OPS this year (.721 v .599).

[UtahSox]

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

I would do that.  And it might not be too far off.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

We might still miss the playoffs. 

I'm not saying no, but ...

Chapman is owed $25.2M x 4 more years after '26. He just turned 33 and will turn 37 in his final contract season.

Adames is owed $31.1M x 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT and 36 during his final contract year.

If I thought JH will spend more in the next few seasons, I'd say okay, but I doubt he will, so these two additions, even subtracting Yoshida ($18m x 2) and Story ($25M x 2) will mean no more big signings for a while.

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We might still miss the playoffs. 

I'm not saying no, but ...

Chapman is owed $25.2M x 4 more years after '26. He just turned 33 and will turn 37 in his final contract season.

Adames is owed $31.1M x 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT and 36 during his final contract year.

If I thought JH will spend more in the next few seasons, I'd say okay, but I doubt he will, so these two additions, even subtracting Yoshida ($18m x 2) and Story ($25M x 2) will mean no more big signings for a while.

My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M.  If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair.

If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28.  And I'd be okay with that as well.  The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR.  If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more.  But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay.

I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year.  Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance.  Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance.  Both drop-offs are extreme outliers.

Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books.  I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M.  If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair.

If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28.  And I'd be okay with that as well.  The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR.  If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more.  But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay.

I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year.  Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance.  Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance.  Both drop-offs are extreme outliers.

Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books.  I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

Point?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

Oh yeah.  They’re going to age and possibly accrue injuries.  At that point, we deal them to another struggling team with an expensive contract.  Rangers? Mets?

[UtahSox]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

But the Adames deal could coincide with Franklin aria is coming up so you could offset the salary by having a young guy getting paid peanuts. And Matt Chapman defensively even if he regressed would still be better than whatever the hell we’re getting out of Caleb Durbin. I don’t know, man we’re still only what three games out of the wildcard halfway through May this move makes a lot of sense. And it’s not like there’s good free agents in the next couple of years. It’s kind of a weak couple of FA classes.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

But the Adames deal could coincide with Franklin aria is coming up...

Huh?

Adames has 5 years left: Arias may be up in 2 years.

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I don’t know, man we’re still only what three games out of the wildcard halfway through May this move makes a lot of sense.

Yup, normally, I'd shy away from these deals, but we're substituting a .491 & .547 with two guys that should be in the .725-.750 range.  If you substituted Story and Durbin's OPS with a .725 each our adjusted OPS would be .706, good for 14th,

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

two bad contracts for two worse contracts? no thanks.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

two bad contracts for two worse contracts? no thanks.

They'd insist we take Devers back.

[UtahSox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

Adames has 5 years left: Arias may be up in 2 years.

Adames can play more than just short. Arias isn’t a guarantee….. For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022. Good baseball players are good baseball players.

And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency or you’ll do what you did last year-every year and whiff on all the good hitters be stuck with trading for little durbies. 

[mvp 78]

I don't want Adames or Chapman. Just give me one aging contract, not three. 

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They'd insist we take Devers back.

They’d probably be thrilled to save over $200 million…

[notin]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Adames can play more than just short. Arias isn’t a guarantee….. For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022. Good baseball players are good baseball players.

And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency or you’ll do what you did last year-every year and whiff on all the good hitters be stuck with trading for little durbies. 

His 2023 was better than his current season.  Bogaerts is a little ahead of his pace from the last two seasons.  Big deal…

[mvp 78]

Adames:

1st percentile range at SS

186 Career HR, 140 Projected at Fenway

🤩

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Adames can play more than just short. Arias isn’t a guarantee….. For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022. Good baseball players are good baseball players.

And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency or you’ll do what you did last year-every year and whiff on all the good hitters be stuck with trading for little durbies. 

It's uncommon for players to have good/better years after 31 or 32 years old. It's stabbing in the dark- something this team is really bad at, yet we keep asking them to stab and stab again and a again. (Myself included.)

[moonslav59]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

It's uncommon for players to have good/better years after 31 or 32 years old. It's stabbing in the dark- something this team is really bad at, yet we keep asking them to stab and stab again and a again. (Myself included.)

On the flip side, one reason I had optimism, this year was that I expected our pre-prim and prime players for improve- very few did.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

On the flip side, one reason I had optimism, this year was that I expected our pre-prim and prime players for improve- very few did.

I think that’s my argument, admittedly I lean towards a “worry about the future in the future” type mentality. Where I think you try to put yourself in the shoes of the GM more. My stance is probably a course correction from hearing so much about these rising stars (campbell, Mayer, Casas, Anthony) who are all going to continue to ascend to greatness. I’m starting to question a lot of those players. Roman injuries are starting to worry me, especially the WAY he gets injured, both the back last year and the wrist this year. On just a routine swing of the baseball bat. Rafaela/Abreu have taken that step forward. Duran/Yoshida/ Story/ Durbin/ Mayer/ Narvaez have been far worse than I expected. 

IDK here is my hot take: I don’t think you can expect a Red Sox to be able to systemically improve their offense via progression, ergo you have to look externally. If look externally at the free agent classes in the next two years. 1. The Quality of the sub 30 YO bats is just not great. 2. Quality bats in free agency tend to lead you to have to sign for longer or more money than you’re comfortable with.

I know Adames and Chapman would have some inherent risk, I think it creates an opportunity for us to improve offensively in the short term and over the next 2 to 3 years. Is there a risk absolutely….. does the tail end of those those contracts look good? I don’t know probably not..  I’m not even in love with either of those players. I just think you gotta make a move, and those are the type of players/ contracts you’re gonna have to get a little uncomfortable taking on. But look at the Nolan arenados, Xander Boegarts, Mike trouts. Good players can get you good results later in career if you’re willing to take that stab in the dark. I also acknowledge that many players continue a downward Trend. 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

two bad contracts for two worse contracts? no thanks.

If the Sox made that deal, if nothing else it is a good PR move for a franchise rapidly gaining a reputation for being frugal.

If the goal is to avoid bad contracts altogether, that leaves you only in the shallow end of the free agent pool, surrounded by fans speculating that if you had just avoided Sandoval ($18mill) and IKF ($6mill), you could have afforded Schwarber ($150mill)…

[UtahSox]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox made that deal, if nothing else it is a good PR move for a franchise rapidly gaining a reputation for being frugal.

If the goal is to avoid bad contracts altogether, that leaves you only in the shallow end of the free agent pool, surrounded by fans speculating that if you had just avoided Sandoval ($18mill) and IKF ($6mill), you could have afforded Schwarber ($150mill)…

That’s a Fair statement. Couple that with Signing young guys on team friendly deals, under control for 5+ years to increase AAV we could have spent a lot on a couple of obvious candidates…….

Breslow attempting to be smartest guy in room is getting very old. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox made that deal, if nothing else it is a good PR move for a franchise rapidly gaining a reputation for being frugal.

Do non Sox fans see the Sox as being "frugal" and "cheap?"

Most teams spend less or way less.

Hardly any teams spent more new money in the last two years than the Sox, including extensions and deals like Buehler's.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, UtahSox said:

For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022.

In a decidedly non-scientific analysis, I took a look at all the players from 2025, with an fWAR of 2.0 or higher, age 33-36.  There were 11 players.  Only 2 had improvements in their wRC+, while 9 declined.  The two that improved, Diaz and Contreras, improved by 8 points each.  The 9 that declined had declines that were much, much higher.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, UtahSox said:

And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency

While there is merit to the suggestion that we will not land some big FAs if we stick to age requirements, I just don't see that as a negative.  The Angels spent a decade or so signing good players that had already turned 30.  Sometimes you'll get lucky, but not very often.

I'd much prefer to overpay for the Harper types that will give you 6-7 good years before they start to decline.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hardly any teams spent more new money in the last two years than the Sox, including extensions and deals like Buehler's.

Show your work! Also very weird to start going with "new money" as a payroll metric.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

While there is merit to the suggestion that we will not land some big FAs if we stick to age requirements, I just don't see that as a negative.  The Angels spent a decade or so signing good players that had already turned 30.  Sometimes you'll get lucky, but not very often.

I'd much prefer to overpay for the Harper types that will give you 6-7 good years before they start to decline.

The Angels really didn't sign that many great players. They had Trout, Ohtani and Rendon. Rendon stunk. They didn't surround those hitters with ANY pitchers. Before Rendon, they had Pujols, but no pitchers to go with him and Trout. The last time they signed a significant pitcher was 2012 when they signed CJ Wilson for 5/77.5.