Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm throwing out his SF numbers at home because the park is awful for him. 

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

💯

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm throwing out his SF numbers at home because the park is awful for him. 

Reasonable point, but his home OPS is a fair amount higher than his road OPS this year (.721 v .599).

[UtahSox]

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

I would do that.  And it might not be too far off.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

We might still miss the playoffs. 

I'm not saying no, but ...

Chapman is owed $25.2M x 4 more years after '26. He just turned 33 and will turn 37 in his final contract season.

Adames is owed $31.1M x 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT and 36 during his final contract year.

If I thought JH will spend more in the next few seasons, I'd say okay, but I doubt he will, so these two additions, even subtracting Yoshida ($18m x 2) and Story ($25M x 2) will mean no more big signings for a while.

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We might still miss the playoffs. 

I'm not saying no, but ...

Chapman is owed $25.2M x 4 more years after '26. He just turned 33 and will turn 37 in his final contract season.

Adames is owed $31.1M x 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT and 36 during his final contract year.

If I thought JH will spend more in the next few seasons, I'd say okay, but I doubt he will, so these two additions, even subtracting Yoshida ($18m x 2) and Story ($25M x 2) will mean no more big signings for a while.

My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M.  If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair.

If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28.  And I'd be okay with that as well.  The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR.  If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more.  But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay.

I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year.  Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance.  Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance.  Both drop-offs are extreme outliers.

Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books.  I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M.  If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair.

If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28.  And I'd be okay with that as well.  The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR.  If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more.  But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay.

I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year.  Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance.  Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance.  Both drop-offs are extreme outliers.

Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books.  I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

As I’ve said before that Raffy would have finished with better numbers last year, and would have better numbers this year if he was still with the RED SOX IMO.

Point?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

Oh yeah.  They’re going to age and possibly accrue injuries.  At that point, we deal them to another struggling team with an expensive contract.  Rangers? Mets?

[UtahSox]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure just a 0.3 reduction for a 31 and 33 year player is "fair." 

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

I like those two players, but I can't help but think they both will be the next Story and Yoshida in 2-3 years... maybe even 1- 1.5 years.

But the Adames deal could coincide with Franklin aria is coming up so you could offset the salary by having a young guy getting paid peanuts. And Matt Chapman defensively even if he regressed would still be better than whatever the hell we’re getting out of Caleb Durbin. I don’t know, man we’re still only what three games out of the wildcard halfway through May this move makes a lot of sense. And it’s not like there’s good free agents in the next couple of years. It’s kind of a weak couple of FA classes.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

But the Adames deal could coincide with Franklin aria is coming up...

Huh?

Adames has 5 years left: Arias may be up in 2 years.

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I don’t know, man we’re still only what three games out of the wildcard halfway through May this move makes a lot of sense.

Yup, normally, I'd shy away from these deals, but we're substituting a .491 & .547 with two guys that should be in the .725-.750 range.  If you substituted Story and Durbin's OPS with a .725 each our adjusted OPS would be .706, good for 14th,

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Willy Adames + Matt Chapman for Yoshida & Story (throw in Durbin)

two bad contracts for two worse contracts? no thanks.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

two bad contracts for two worse contracts? no thanks.

They'd insist we take Devers back.

[UtahSox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

Adames has 5 years left: Arias may be up in 2 years.

Adames can play more than just short. Arias isn’t a guarantee….. For all your age regression you love to speak of, Xander is having his best season since 2022. Good baseball players are good baseball players.

And guess what you’re gonna have to get uncomfortable in free agency or you’ll do what you did last year-every year and whiff on all the good hitters be stuck with trading for little durbies.