Spring Training Game Thread for Week of March 8th

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Still do. And arguing that “you win some you lose some” on KC is ridiculous there was no reason to do it. Even Roman might have come a little too early. This is an AAV strapped team. Ergo anytime we hit on a young player and immediately pay them to obtain 1 or 2 extra years of control is the epitome of stupidity.

Who knows who we could have signed if Bello, Rafaela, Anthony and Campbell were still on arb contracts. It’s a great way to fake spend cash now when Sam Kennedy steps up to a microphone twice a year. 

Sometimes its wiser to keep your cheap studs cheap so you have extra ammo to build around them.  Sometimes, its a good idea to lock up. Im a case by case guy.

But when we lock up youth, we try (at least reasonably) to keep the cash outlay in line with expected performance.  For example, Romans tax hit is like 17m, but they are actually paying him like 7m this year.  And sure thats more than his pre-arb hit of ~1m but the gap between 7 (cash) and 1 (what he would have been if no extension) is still a lot better than the gap between his AAV/Tax hit (17m) and 1m (what he would have been if no extension).  If we're talking about upping a 1m to 7m and getting some free agent years added, that feels more worth it than if we were upping his pay from 1m to 17m (which we are not).

So yes going by the tax hit does create a little bit of a "funny money" effect as the tax hit only matters for the tax.  So Ive been applying the tax hit evenly across the entire roster to estimate true cost. 

For example, Spotrac estimates that the Red Sox will have a 256m tax basis and therefore the tax hit is like 30% on like 12m aka ~3.5M.  They also estimate that our payroll expenditure (without penalty) will be 213.5m So 3.5/(213.5+3.5) = 1.6%.  So really only thing the tax is doing is adding 1.6% to our payroll (side note: all this fuss about tax and all its doing is increasing our payroll 1.6% lol and thats with 2nd year repeater penalty. Tax is borderline irrelevant unless you are going to go full Dodgers, fans just love having pretend budgets to make roster building more like a fun puzzle).  

But Im not going to go by tax hit when all it does is calculate a miniscule penalty. But I am willing to apply a 1.6% markup to cash spend to account for the tax because thats what its doing. So instead of 213.5M, our real payroll is 213.5+ 1.6% or 217m (2026 player expenditure + tax penalty). Romans true cost in 2026 is 7*1.016= 7.11M (his salary + 1.6% markup due to tax penalty).  But its not his 17m cap hit, and going by tax is indeed just carrying water for ownership.

All of that being said, I really do not think the handcuff (this offseason) was financial. I dont think they are being super value driven, at least not to the extent of the past. I fully believe the thrice reported story that everything centered around Bregman, and they blew it with Breslows bad interpersonal skills.  At least blew their plan, I dont think they've blown the season. We may be better served without Bregman, and Story and Duran will step up as the leaders.

I do think Sox look very strong right now.  Breslow, I have mixed opinions on, and I think hes a douche.  But I think hes made 2 spectacular moves that are really going to save his bacon. Them being 1) Crochet 2) not trading Duran.  #2 might just be another example of mr magoo'ing into a good decision accidentally. Like botching something but winding up better for the botch (if he tried to trade Duran but couldnt) - so I dont know how much credit to give him there personally....But whatever, we look great and its hard for me to be as mad at Breslow as Ive been when I like the team - but I still think hes a huge douche

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Still do. And arguing that “you win some you lose some” on KC is ridiculous there was no reason to do it. Even Roman might have come a little too early. This is an AAV strapped team. Ergo anytime we hit on a young player and immediately pay them to obtain 1 or 2 extra years of control is the epitome of stupidity.

Who knows who we could have signed if Bello, Rafaela, Anthony and Campbell were still on arb contracts. It’s a great way to fake spend cash now when Sam Kennedy steps up to a microphone twice a year. 

These guys will be great AAV bargains towards the ends of their deals when they'll be making $25-40M a year as free agents, or we'd have to replace them at those costs.

Bello & Rafaela have played well enough, so far, to project salaries higher than what we will be paying them. Anthony is too early to tell. KC, too, but he looks more skeptical. However, KC's AAV cost is $7.5M. That's less than we have paid Sandoval, Kluber, Richards, Kiki and others. It's 1/3 the cost of Buehler.

This is so far from "stupid."

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello would also have a lot more trade value if he didn't have the extension.

$6.2> $8.7>$16.2>$19.2 then a $21M option with just a $1M buyout at age 30? Seriously?

While that amount would price several teams out of even asking about a trade, it's a very reasonable pay schedule.

Fangraphs gave him a value over $15M a year in 2024 and 2025, and he's just now entering his prime years, although "prime" varies quite a bit for pitchers. BTV projects $78M value over the next 4 years, and we all know teams pay more than projected value for pitchers under 30.

All control years are before 30. He's owed about $52M/4, counting the buyout.

I get the fact that his arb costs may not have been all that high, so maybe there is a slight overpay, but unless he declines in value (a possibility) he would likely get more than $19M a year at age 29 and $21M for the age 30 year.

Rafaela's deal looks even better. He's making just $2M, this year (age 23)! Then $3.5M>$5.5M>$7.5M>$10.5M>$13M with a club option of $16M in 2032 ($4M buyout.) He will be just 29 for this option year.

Fangraphs placed his value at $8M in '24 and $30M in '25. BTV projects production at $94M/7, while he's owed $58M more.

Why would teams prefer to spend this money on FAs?

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

$6.2> $8.7>$16.2>$19.2 then a $21M option with just a $1M buyout at age 30? Seriously?

Just feed it into BTV. He'd have more trade value without the contract. It's simple math. Seriously! 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Just feed it into BTV. He'd have more trade value without the contract. It's simple math. Seriously! 

First, you have to know what he'd have gotten and would have gotten through ARBs, and BTV does not have that ability.

Then, you need to project what he'd get as a FA for the 2 years added to his control years. Where do I "feed" that into BTV?

Walk me through the "simple math."

There are easily 15-20 teams that would give us real value in a trade for Bello and ask for no money. Would they give more if he had just 3 arb years left? Yes, some of the cheap teams would, although a handful might not want him for his last 1-2 arb year costs, too.

What would Bello have gotten in arb for 2026 after two $15M fangraph value seasons in a row? (Not $15M, as arbs are not high for the early arb seasons, but the numbers have been on the rise, lately.) How about next year and 2028? How is the math "simple" when we have no idea how well he'll do. I think your low opinion of Bello is influencing your projections.

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

Early looking pretty good, today.

With Crawford yet to pitch a ST'ing game and Sandoval likely to begin the season in the pen, is Early our #6 SP'er, now? (Tolle #7 or Sandoval?)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

17 is the ST record. He held up second base for a second jokingly referencing Ricky Henderson. 

[vegasbob]

Connor Wong continues to create doubt  about being able to be carried as the backup catcher to Narvaez. His inability to hit anything is getting serious.    (.087/.247) for ST is not going to cut it.   

KCampbell on the other hand continues to make the decision to send him to Woo predictable

Trevor Story looking like he is more than ready for a good year.

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

KC demoted from leading off. 

Not having a good ST so far, and still with 2 weeks to go looking highly suspect. Mayer not looking all that great either so far.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Connor Wong continues to create doubt  about being able to be carried as the backup catcher to Narvaez. His inability to hit anything is getting serious.    (.087/.247) for ST is not going to cut it.   

KCampbell on the other hand continues to make the decision to send him to Woo predictable

Trevor Story looking like he is more than ready for a good year.

Spring Training is rarely a tryout for anyone anymore.  Most roster decisions made in ST are more the result of injuries.

The Sox only have 3 healthy catchers on the 40 man roster, and one of them is Mickey Gasper, who isn’t much of a catcher.

Wong’s role on the 2026 Red Sox will be to catch Brayan Bello, and it’s a role that has worked out very well for Bello in particular…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Not having a good ST so far, and still with 2 weeks to go looking highly suspect. Mayer not looking all that great either so far.

Mayer has an .806 OPS in spring training.  What does a guy have to do to impress some fans?

[Old Red]

For the record Mayer is 4-20 with 6 k’s, and a .654 OPS.🤭

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

There are easily 15-20 teams that would give us real value in a trade for Bello and ask for no money. Would they give more if he had just 3 arb years left? Yes, some of the cheap teams would, although a handful might not want him for his last 1-2 arb year costs, too.

 

A cheap team could trade out from that final arb 3 year and have him next 2 years at like 6m each (assuming like 4.5m arb 1, 7.5m arb 2). I ran the math and calculated that because he has like 25m in trade value and like 50m remaining on the deal (not including the option) over 4 years that comes to like 19m/yr (75/4) in expected value.  So a trade partner would be getting 38m in value for 12m in pay for like 26m excess value over next 2 years with the bonus of a modest trade asset entering year 3.  So 38-12 = 26...then hed have an extra like 5m for that final arb year, which is more trade value than he has (so the extension is underwater) but only slightly.  The trade value hed have without the extension is close to the trade value he has with it.......And theres a reason for this....

And that reason is that looking at things from an AAV/lux tax standpoint is stupid.  And when they extended him, the salary for each arb year was intended to closely reflect what we thought each arb year would be.  So think hed get 5m in arb 1, pay him 6m in that year....

The extension was neither good or bad because it was made with the expectation hed be like a #3/4 starter, and hes been roughly that.  We were hopeful hed be better and that would make the extension worth it but he hasnt been.  But its not like killing his value.

These extensions look absolutely terrible - if you look at tax hit as the payroll and its not. Full stop.  But our overall payroll looks better if you look at it from a tax hit perspective (what did i say this morning its like 256m tax hit vs 215 expected cash payments), so the water carriers want you to look at it from a tax hit perspective but thats dumb because the tax hit and penalties only matter if you go full dodgers.  And if you are going to go full dodgers, internal extensions are small speed bumps.

The penalties are borderline irrelevant. The cash is what matters.  When we extend, we try to keep the cash equivalent to what it would have been had there been no extension.  So the only way to win/lose (when looking at payroll from a cash perspective) is to have a significant fluctuation in the player.  Bello has not had a big fluctuation - so we're about even on the extension, maybe a little underwater (hed have slightly more trade value had we not extended him).

Our payroll is 215m, only the anti-labor folks on here want to go by the tax hit.  And its inaccurate.

[UtahSox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

These guys will be great AAV bargains towards the ends of their deals when they'll be making $25-40M a year as free agents, or we'd have to replace them at those costs.

Bello & Rafaela have played well enough, so far, to project salaries higher than what we will be paying them. Anthony is too early to tell. KC, too, but he looks more skeptical. However, KC's AAV cost is $7.5M. That's less than we have paid Sandoval, Kluber, Richards, Kiki and others. It's 1/3 the cost of Buehler.

This is so far from "stupid."

Yeah also made KC way less trade able and it’s nullifying the benefit of hitting on young players. If I were the Rays I’d do this not the Red Sox. Unless you’re trying to fake like you’re spending 263m when you’re really only spending 195m. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The extension was neither good or bad because it was made with the expectation hed be like a #3/4 starter, and hes been roughly that.  We were hopeful hed be better and that would make the extension worth it but he hasnt been.  But its not like killing his value.
G

Good post, and I'll respond to this part, since this gets to the heart of the matter. These early extensions are made to hedge against the possibility that the young arb or prearb player will do so well that they will "price themselves" to a point where we might lose them or have to pay FA market price and use too much budget space doing so.

I'm not sure the Sox expected Bello to be a Cy Young candidate at age 24 and 25. They likely expected decent seasons and improvement. I'd say two seasons at $15M value according to fangraphs is as good or better than expected. Yes, a 4.19 FIP for two years in a row is not "killing it," it's still is pretty good. His ERA+ of 123, last season is very nice.

How much does a guy that does this get on the FA market?

2024-2025:

28th ERA- at 93 (just below Gausman)

30th in IP

39th FIP (4.19) 36th xFIP

41st fWAR (3.9)

Signing these deals is a bet that the player will do well and command too much bargaining power, either in his last arb years or once their control years are up. 

I'd say Bello is slightly ahead of pace on being worth the extension, and Rafaela's 2025 season puts him way above the curve, but with enough doubts to still worry or wonder.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yeah also made KC way less trade able and it’s nullifying the benefit of hitting on young players. If I were the Rays I’d do this not the Red Sox. Unless you’re trying to fake like you’re spending 263m when you’re really only spending 195m. 

If it's good for the Rays, why not the Sox? How about the Braves? They do this a lot.

It depends on how well or poorly these kids do. KC has 2 months under his belt. Can we wait a while to judge his deal?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good post, and I'll respond to this part, since this gets to the heart of the matter. These early extensions are made to hedge against the possibility that the young arb or prearb player will do so well that they will "price themselves" to a point where we might lose them or have to pay FA market price and use too much budget space doing so.

I'm not sure the Sox expected Bello to be a Cy Young candidate at age 24 and 25. They likely expected decent seasons and improvement. I'd say two seasons at $15M value according to fangraphs is as good or better than expected. Yes, a 4.19 FIP for two years in a row is not "killing it," it's still is pretty good. His ERA+ of 123, last season is very nice.

How much does a guy that does this get on the FA market?

2024-2025:

28th ERA- at 93 (just below Gausman)

30th in IP

39th FIP (4.19) 36th xFIP

41st fWAR (3.9)

Signing these deals is a bet that the player will do well and command too much bargaining power, either in his last arb years or once their control years are up. 

I'd say Bello is slightly ahead of pace on being worth the extension, and Rafaela's 2025 season puts him way above the curve, but with enough doubts to still worry or wonder.

So the Red Sox are trying to pretty much lock up all the young guys like they did with Casas too.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Unless you’re trying to fake like you’re spending 263m when you’re really only spending 195m. 

You do realize that on the back end the numbers might be $195 AAV and $263 in payroll.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

So the Red Sox are trying to pretty much lock up all the young guys like they did with Casas too.

Huh?

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If it's good for the Rays, why not the Sox? 

It depends on how well or poorly these kids do. KC has 2 months under his belt. Can we wait a while to judge his deal?

If it’s good for the Rays why not the Sox? Really? No we can’t wait any longer to Judge if KC is nothing, but a SUSPECT, or not. You could wait longer in Tampa, but not Boston especially with all the hype you, and others have given these suspects.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If it’s good for the Rays why not the Sox? Really? No we can’t wait any longer to Judge if KC is nothing, but a SUSPECT, or not. You could wait longer in Tampa, but not Boston especially with all the hype you, and others have given these suspects.

Huh?

You're probably glad we waited on suspects like Betts & Bogey, too.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

You're probably glad we waited on suspects like Betts & Bogey, too.

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You do realize that on the back end the numbers might be $195 AAV and $263 in payroll.

Odds of everything aligning perfectly for 1 extra year are not worth the risk. Especially when you could win 1-2 World Series while Rafaela, Anthony, Bello, and KC are on micro deals + adding Ranger Suarez and Bregman and maybe trade Bello and KC for Sandy Alcantara. That’s how you win World Series. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

They tried to lock Casas up to, eventually he balked at the #, and now aren’t we so glad he isn’t making 12m a year? 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

They tried to lock Casas up to, eventually he balked at the #, and now aren’t we so glad he isn’t making 12m a year? 

Probably. Like I said: it's a gamble that wins some and loses some.

With our record on FA "gambles" being so great, I'm not getting why this is such a big issue.

How about our fantastic record with locking up our stars after they prove they are good enough to extend? Great one, right?

How about our record with the biggest FA signings since DD left? (Story & Masa)

I, for one, applaud the effort to change things up and try to actually keep our young players for longer than we have been. 

Yes, I fully expect we will swing and miss on some, but we've been swinging and missing on other strategies that have been even more costly than $60M spent on KC, and speaking of KC, he's not quite dead yet.

 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Odds of everything aligning perfectly for 1 extra year are not worth the risk. Especially when you could win 1-2 World Series while Rafaela, Anthony, Bello, and KC are on micro deals + adding Ranger Suarez and Bregman and maybe trade Bello and KC for Sandy Alcantara. That’s how you win World Series. 

It's 2 years for Bello and way more for Anthony & Rafaela.

You think Alcantara is risk free? I'd rather have Bello.

[moonslav59]

How about the Luzardo example?

First 160 or so IP: 5.36 ERA/4.82 FIP

A very promising 2022-2023 stretch (3.48/3.40) ages 24-25 (280 IP)

Then, some injury issues: 

5.00/4.26 in 66 IP in '24 (1st of 3 arb years)

3.92/2.92 in 184 IP, last year ($6.25M arb year 2)

He gets $11M for 3rd arb year and the Phillies just extended him to $135M/5 starting in 2027.

Was it worth waiting?

Sometimes, it works out to extend a guy before he has a really good year.

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the pre-arb extensions handed out by Brez:

2024:

$55M/6 Bello (1 year beyond arb with another team option year)

$50M/8 Rafaela (2 years beyond controlled arb seasons)

2025:

$130M/8 Anthony (2 years beyond arbs plus an option year)

$60M/8 Campbell (2 years beyond arbs plus two more option years)

Others:

$170M/6 Crochet (2026-2031)

$13,3M/1 Chapman (+ option for 2027)

To me, the only one that looks questionable or doubtful is the KC one, but we've seen 2 months of MLB play from him, to date.

Rafaela: 4.8 fWAR in the first 2 seasons. (7.5 bWAR)

Bello: 3.9 fWAR in first 2 seasons. (3.9 bWAR)

Anthony: 2.7 fWAR in first 71 games in MLB. (3.1 bWAR)

KC: -0.2 fWAR in first 67 games in MLB. (-1.0 bWAR)

 

[moonslav59]

Here are some winter arb numbers for SP'ers:

$32M Skubal

$6.2M Bubic

$3.6M Bradish

Avoided arbs:

$12.8 Singer

$11.0M Luzardo

$10.9M Gilbert

$8.1M Peterson

$6.8M Steele

$6.6M Kirby

$6.2M Trevor Rogers & Casey Mize

$6.1M Joe Ryan

$5.8M Kremer

$5.7M Hunter Brown

$5.6M M Gore

$5.2M B Ober

$4.7M Lodolo

$4.5M Schmidt & Cabrera

$4.2M Houck

$4.0M Pallante

How much would Bello have gotten?