Sox Trade For Milwaukee 3B Caleb Durbin

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Will Okamoto replace Bichette’s bat? Can George Springer hit 32 again? (Most HRs for him since 2017.). And while Dalton Varsho will likely hit 20HRs, is he really much else on offense given his sub-.300 OBP and .725 career OPS?

Very dubious on Springer's outlook for '26. Varsho could be fine. No clue on Okamoto. Guys coming over from Japan tend to struggle the first season from what I remember. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Out-homering a team doesn’t only mean muscling up and putting multiple shots over the wall.  It’s a relative term.  It just means hitting more home runs than the other guy does.  So could you out-homer a team by using good pitching to limit their home runs? How many of those 40 games involved the losing team not homering at all?

Fair points. Of the eight teams that won their first rounds in the '25 playoffs, only Milwaukee was below the MLB average in team HRs. 

I'm just a Red Sox fan, and know that our four World Series MVPs this century all were awarded for their power. Manny, Lowell, Papi and Steve Pearce wouldn't have been candidates without the longball.

Oritz never should've been pitched to in any of the 2013 games by St. Louis, because he blasted the most heroic grand slam in Boston history in the ALCS. It's arguably the greatest dinger in Sox postseason history -- (because they won rings, Carlton) right there with his '04 walk-off in the Bronx and Damon's salami... though no one should ever forget Moreland's 3-run pinch shot that turned around momentum in '18... 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's a SSS for both years, but DHam was very good in 2024.

But only at 2B and only vs RHPs and only for half a season and only for...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

though no one should ever forget Moreland's 3-run pinch shot that turned around momentum in '18... 

I don't remember this one TBH. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

But only at 2B and only vs RHPs and only for half a season and only for...

MIL is also getting overly excited for the Shane Drohan experience. The guy has good stuff, but he has outsized injury issues that can't be swept under the rug.  

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Fair points. Of the eight teams that won their first rounds in the '25 playoffs, only Milwaukee was below the MLB average in team HRs. 

I'm just a Red Sox fan, and know that our four World Series MVPs this century all were awarded for their power. Manny, Lowell, Papi and Steve Pearce wouldn't have been candidates without the longball.

Oritz never should've been pitched to in any of the 2013 games by St. Louis, because he blasted the most heroic grand slam in Boston history in the ALCS. It's arguably the greatest dinger in Sox postseason history -- (because they won rings, Carlton) right there with his '04 walk-off in the Bronx and Damon's salami... though no one should ever forget Moreland's 3-run pinch shot that turned around momentum in '18... 

The Sox were 10th in ISO and 9th in SLG in '25.

In 2004, we were first and second. (T 3rd in pitching fWAR)

2007: 8th and 6th. (6th in pitching)

2013: 1st and 2nd. (14th in pitching)

2018: 4th and 1st (6th in pitching fWAR)

____________________________________

From 2004-2013: 2nd ISO/1st SLG & 9th in Pitching

2014-2018: 15th ISO/ 6th SLG & 8th in Pitching

2019-2024: 6th ISO/ 4th SLG & 15th Pitching

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

MIL is also getting overly excited for the Shane Drohan experience. The guy has good stuff, but he has outsized injury issues that can't be swept under the rug.  

They must have liked something more than we did.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They must have liked something more than we did.

Sox did add him to the 40 man! 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox did add him to the 40 man! 

Yes, after leaving him unprotected for Rule 5, the previous year.

He'd probably make many teams' 40. He's not terrible or hopeless, but he's not really a "prize" in trade.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, after leaving him unprotected for Rule 5, the previous year.

He'd probably make many teams' 40. He's not terrible or hopeless, but he's not really a "prize" in trade.

Should they have protected him the prior offseason in '24-'25? He was taken in the previous Rule 5 draft. He was injured, struggled, put through waivers and sent back to the Sox. If anyone really wanted him, they could have had him for free during the season. Why did they need to protect him a few months later? 

[notin]

One I discussed aspect of this trade is Milwaukee apparently plans to use Hamilton as their starting shortstop full time, at least until they think Jett Williams is ready (or gets another year of service time)..  This makes him a viable fantasy sleeper for late rounds or $1 bids.  One of the fastest players in MLB on a team whose attitude is @if the next base is free, take it.   If it isn’t, go for it because it probably will be by the time you get there.”

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me.

MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

I’m sure they liked all of them to some extent.  Hamilton is the most obvious inclusion to me - they are an extremely aggressive team on the base paths and his speed plays into that.  And they need an interim shortstop until they promote Jett Williams…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sure they liked all of them to some extent.  Hamilton is the most obvious inclusion to me - they are an extremely aggressive team on the base paths and his speed plays into that.  And they need an interim shortstop until they promote Jett Williams…

Roster Resource lists Joey Ortiz at SS and Hamilton at 3B. MIL also has Cooper Pratt coming up to play on the left side of the IF at some point this year. They have a bunch of guys that they need to move around, so I'm not sure they know where everyone is going to play yet. Slotting Hamilton into 3b or even SS would be bad IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't remember this one TBH. 

Game 4: Sox led 2-1 in games, but LA had momentum, coming off an 18-inning walk-off in Gm 3. Dodgers were 7 outs from tying the Series and would be home for Gm 5. Rich Hill, throwing a one-hitter, had a 4-0 lead in the 7th when Roberts yanks him after his second walk. Moreland pinch hits for ERod and PLAKATA... Boston then destroys LA's bullpen and wins easy.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If you think that's spicy, you can't handle me at more worst/best. 

Shrimp Mozambique?
Lamb Vindaloo?
Schezuan style hot pot?

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Out-homering a team doesn’t only mean muscling up and putting multiple shots over the wall.  It’s a relative term.  It just means hitting more home runs than the other guy does.  So could you out-homer a team by using good pitching to limit their home runs? How many of those 40 games involved the losing team not homering at all?

TY mr moons point from yesterday and MVPs point from earlier today

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Fair points. Of the eight teams that won their first rounds in the '25 playoffs, only Milwaukee was below the MLB average in team HRs. 

I'm just a Red Sox fan, and know that our four World Series MVPs this century all were awarded for their power. Manny, Lowell, Papi and Steve Pearce wouldn't have been candidates without the longball.

Oritz never should've been pitched to in any of the 2013 games by St. Louis, because he blasted the most heroic grand slam in Boston history in the ALCS. It's arguably the greatest dinger in Sox postseason history -- (because they won rings, Carlton) right there with his '04 walk-off in the Bronx and Damon's salami... though no one should ever forget Moreland's 3-run pinch shot that turned around momentum in '18... 

Shane Victorino had a HR that should not be forgotten

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Should they have protected him the prior offseason in '24-'25? He was taken in the previous Rule 5 draft. He was injured, struggled, put through waivers and sent back to the Sox. If anyone really wanted him, they could have had him for free during the season. Why did they need to protect him a few months later? 

We we sure on these years? Could it have been 23-24 where he was rule 5 drafted and got hurt/struggled, came back last year, pitched will in minors , and grew into an "enough value to be protected"

I think I remember him repairing some value at some point, to answer your question more directly. Might have been second half of year after being returned in same year drafted.

Im sure he had some value in the deal, so Im glad we protected and traded him.  Even if he wasnt the main piece, maybe he is what got the comp pick included.  Everyone loves the comp pick. So much so, you almost dont want to make them. Kinda like driving a new car off the lot.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

We we sure on these years? 

moon mentioned that they left him unprotected the previous year '24-'25. He was selected in the prior Rule 5 draft, returned and left unprotected again for the year '24-'25.

Unprotected Dec '23 - drafted

bad year/injured/returned to Sox

Unprotected Dec '24 - not drafted (shouldn't have been protected as he passed through waivers during the season as I stated)

decent year

Protected Dec '25

traded prior to the season

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Kyle Harrison is almost the same exact age Quinn Priester was when we traded him last year. 

When Priester was traded he was 24, coming off of 2 part time seasons where he put up a -1.0 WAR but was a highly regarded prospect who ranked between 58-88 the few years prior.  The Brewers took him and got him right. 

Harrison, same age Preister was last year, .5 WAR the last few seasons, ranked between 26-38 the last few years. 

At this point in his career, Harrison is arguably a much better prospect than Preister was.  

If people are angry we traded Priester....they should be very angry we traded Harrison.  But that's my horrible take, reality is this is what the Brewers do, they're great at developing guys like Preister.....there's a good chance they get Kyle right and he becomes a very good pitcher. 

My point is Im happy about the Quinn trade because I think it was part of the reason they overpaid for Harrison.  "Last time we got a Red Sox depth starter, it really worked out for us, yes Durbin + 2 depth pieces that I can see contributing + a comp pick is surely steep for a RS depth starter + Hamilton + the Shane Drohan experience - but Hamilton is even higher ranked than Priester and look at how much he worked out for us."

I wonder if they think that because QP did so well for them that Harrison will improve as much as QP did since both came from RS, and if thats one of the reasons they overpaid.

Kinda like how people told me for years that Jed Lowrie was untradeable because Pedroia didnt hit the ground running either, or like how now whenever a Bruins prospect struggles everyone yells Marchand struggled when he first came up, therefore this must be the new Marchand! And Im like isnt it more likely that this guy will NOT follow Marchands extremely rare career arc or coming up expecting to be a third liner, struggling to do even that for 1/2 season, about to be sent down and deemed a minor bust (cant call him a big bust because he was never expected to be anything more than a 3rd liner) - then poof - outta nowhere one of the best goal scorers for years and years.  Some people use stuff like this as a lesson that every prospect that struggles will be Marchand and every prospect that doesnt struggle will be better than marchand and I dont think thats the right takeaway.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

One I discussed aspect of this trade is Milwaukee apparently plans to use Hamilton as their starting shortstop full time, at least until they think Jett Williams is ready (or gets another year of service time)..  This makes him a viable fantasy sleeper for late rounds or $1 bids.  One of the fastest players in MLB on a team whose attitude is @if the next base is free, take it.   If it isn’t, go for it because it probably will be by the time you get there.”

DHam crushed it for me in 2024.  The full-season extrapolation was 16 HRs and 66 SBs.  And even higher if you are platooning him.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Roster Resource lists Joey Ortiz at SS and Hamilton at 3B. MIL also has Cooper Pratt coming up to play on the left side of the IF at some point this year. They have a bunch of guys that they need to move around, so I'm not sure they know where everyone is going to play yet. Slotting Hamilton into 3b or even SS would be bad IMO.

They’re only doing it to get his legs into the lineup…

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

My point is Im happy about the Quinn trade because I think it was part of the reason they overpaid for Harrison.  "Last time we got a Red Sox depth starter, it really worked out for us, yes Durbin + 2 depth pieces that I can see contributing + a comp pick is surely steep for a RS depth starter + Hamilton + the Shane Drohan experience - but Hamilton is even higher ranked than Priester and look at how much he worked out for us."

I wonder if they think that because QP did so well for them that Harrison will improve as much as QP did since both came from RS, and if thats one of the reasons they overpaid.

Kinda like how people told me for years that Jed Lowrie was untradeable because Pedroia didnt hit the ground running either, or like how now whenever a Bruins prospect struggles everyone yells Marchand struggled when he first came up, therefore this must be the new Marchand! And Im like isnt it more likely that this guy will NOT follow Marchands extremely rare career arc or coming up expecting to be a third liner, struggling to do even that for 1/2 season, about to be sent down and deemed a minor bust (cant call him a big bust because he was never expected to be anything more than a 3rd liner) - then poof - outta nowhere one of the best goal scorers for years and years.  Some people use stuff like this as a lesson that every prospect that struggles will be Marchand and every prospect that doesnt struggle will be better than marchand and I dont think thats the right takeaway.

I will wager any amount you like Priester only came up tangentially and the decision to acquire Harrison was based on metrics, footage and scouting reports.  For all we know, Harrison might not have even been their first ask, and was more of an acceptable alternate…

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too, and Cora said something that rang true to me. He said, "We now have a complete team."

I also agree that we have a complete team.  The offense is maybe not as strong as we'd like, but it should be fine combined with our strong pitching.  I feel a lot better about our infield after the recent additions, all within days of each other.  We have some good depth and versatility all around.  

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It just "feels true" because of SSS and highlights that are played over and over again. 

Plus, homeruns do have a big impact on the game, which I think gives a sense of having more importance than they really have.  I'm not saying that homeruns aren't nice or aren't important, but they are not the reason why teams win in the postseason, statistically speaking.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow himself acknowledged that home runs help teams get deep into the postseason.

Some posters love stats that justify opinions, but then use "Small Sample Size" to argue against other stats. Teams that out-homered opponents in playoff games last year won 35 of 40. Call that a SSS if you want, but it's also ALL the playoff games, so ESS: Entire Sample Size.

I love the Durbin trade because the Sox didn't give up much for a guy who's my kind of ballplayer: all hustle, makes contact and doesn't strike out.

And of course Cora is going to say the Red Sox are a "complete team" the first week of Spring Training. But we all know it's not.

There is almost 0 correlation between hitting homeruns and winning in the postseason.  The correlation is positive, but it's so weak that it's basically nonexistent.

I will say it until I'm blue in the face, the playoffs are very largely a crapshoot.  

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It feels like just a week ago that we had this conversation with me and MVP adding unvaluable data points.

The randomness of baseball, particularly in the short series that the postseason is comprised of, is something that has always piqued my interest.  Of course, a well-timed homerun can win a game.  But so can a strike out, a great defensive play, or even a bad bounce.  It's simply just not true that homeruns are what wins in the postseason, generally speaking.

[notin]

32 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

The randomness of baseball, particularly in the short series that the postseason is comprised of, is something that has always piqued my interest.  Of course, a well-timed homerun can win a game.  But so can a strike out, a great defensive play, or even a bad bounce.  It's simply just not true that homeruns are what wins in the postseason, generally speaking.

Sox fans that recall Bill Buckner should know this…

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Should they have protected him the prior offseason in '24-'25? He was taken in the previous Rule 5 draft. He was injured, struggled, put through waivers and sent back to the Sox. If anyone really wanted him, they could have had him for free during the season. Why did they need to protect him a few months later? 

Did I even hint that they needed to or should have protected him? You seem to read things into statements that just aren't there or even implied.

The point was that he really wasn't viewed all that highly, until the time we decided to protect him, and even then, we only valued him more than someone like Paez.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They’re only doing it to get his legs into the lineup…

He needs to get on base to use 'em.

Career .283 OBP. That "great" 2024 season saw a .303 OBP.

69 singles + BBs and 33 SBs.