Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[Hugh2]

Dude struck out 200 batters the last two years in a row, how many guys can say that?

he still has elite swing and miss and some of the best breaking stuff in the entire game. 
 

it’s one thing to expect the moon (no pun intended) and hate it because it’s not Skubal, but it’s another entirely different thing to try and poo poo the trade and convince everyone else Gray sucks.

Gray is our second best pitcher.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Seems FIP isn't particularly useful then. Its clear that which ballpark you play in makes a big difference. For me ERA+ is better than FIP. The park matters.

xFIP does, so what of that stat?

I still value ERA+ and ERA- more, and I also look at K-BB% and OPS Against.

Gray's .726 OPSA is not great and not #2 material, to me, and when you couple that with ERA+/-, I'm seeing him as a #3.

Valdez .667

Bello .669

Giolito .685

My guess is Brez & Co. think Casas is one answer, so no to Alonso. I doubt we sign a DH like Schwarber, so that leaves sideways moves like Bregman or Bichette or a bold move to trade for K Marte.

I don't see K Marte as enough to replace Devers and Bregman combined. That would be putting a lot of faith in Casas, Mayer and 300 more PAs from Anthony, and that's if we still have Duran and Abreu after trading for KMarte.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I buy the whole playing in Boston thing 100%. Some thrive playing in the Boston experience, and some do not. 

That is a concerning aspect of Gray's portfolio, but it is just a 7 game sample size, and he was facing some good offensive teams. (.895 OPSA at Fenway and .812 vs Sox batters H & A.)

He does have this...

.672 v BAL

.685 v TOR

.701 v NYY

Do you buy this ting?

(.772 v TBR is not good.)

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Dude struck out 200 batters the last two years in a row, how many guys can say that?

he still has elite swing and miss and some of the best breaking stuff in the entire game. 
 

it’s one thing to expect the moon (no pun intended) and hate it because it’s not Skubal, but it’s another entirely different thing to try and poo poo the trade and convince everyone else Gray sucks.

Gray is our second best pitcher.

While true, there was a big gap between Bello and Crochet, and Sonny is very close to Bello not Crochet. We hoped it was more in the middle, at worst.

We are better with Gray than Crawford/Dobbins/Sandoval/Harrison. 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Dude struck out 200 batters the last two years in a row, how many guys can say that?

he still has elite swing and miss and some of the best breaking stuff in the entire game. 
 

it’s one thing to expect the moon (no pun intended) and hate it because it’s not Skubal, but it’s another entirely different thing to try and poo poo the trade and convince everyone else Gray sucks.

Gray is our second best pitcher.

I don’t hate the trade at all, but I’m just that not excited that Gray will produce anymore results than what Gio did, which isn’t bad, but just not an improvement. You can throw out all the stats they have available, and Gray may be the second best pitcher on paper, but until he produces on the field everything else is useless.

[Hugh2]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

While true, there was a big gap between Bello and Crochet, and Sonny is very close to Bello not Crochet. We hoped it was more in the middle, at worst.

We are better with Gray than Crawford/Dobbins/Sandoval/Harrison. 

I mean Crochet had an elite elite season.  There’s an insanely small group of pitchers on earth that are close to Crochet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Both Gray and a teammate attribute his struggles in pinstripes to a command by the pitching coach to change his repertoire. Obviously he moved on and got over it, making All-Star teams in each league for his next two teams.

If you're still worried about Gray on big stages, please note his postseason ERA of 3.26 in 6 starts is better than his career regular season ERA of 3.58. He's had some blah playoff starts, but some good ones, like when he was a 23-year old rookie and bested Cy Young Verlander with 8 shutout innings to 7 shutout innings in a 1-0 win for Oakland.

Pressure? When he was an undersized high school starting quarterback as a freshman, Gray insisted on playing the same day his father died in an auto crash. Sonny's tribute to dad included four TD passes and a big W. As a junior and senior he also QBed two state titles.

He'll be ok under the blinking lights of the Citgo sign (before it's blocked by the new front office tower).

[notin]

42 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Seems FIP isn't particularly useful then. Its clear that which ballpark you play in makes a big difference. For me ERA+ is better than FIP. The park matters.

What I meant is, FIP didnt neutralize ballparks abd has nothing in it for ballpark factors.  But I do disagree that ballparks make pitchers better or worse.  If you’re a good pitcher because of Petco, youre probably not a good pitcher.

ERA+ or ERA- are both better than ERA, as both are park-adjusted to neutralize effects of the ballpark…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While true, there was a big gap between Bello and Crochet, and Sonny is very close to Bello not Crochet. We hoped it was more in the middle, at worst.

We are better with Gray than Crawford/Dobbins/Sandoval/Harrison. 

On many metrics, Gray is closer to Crochet than Bello…

 

[FredLynn]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

On many metrics, Gray is closer to Crochet than Bello…

 

He’s still not what we needed. He’s a 3. 
I think I’ve said my piece on Gray. Now we’ll have to wait and see how Breslow conducts himself for the rest of the winter. Hopefully we will all be pleasantly surprised, though I’d put money down that only further half assed moves are awaiting.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Gray may be the second best pitcher on paper, but until he produces on the field everything else is useless.

Isn't that the same for everyone?  Until Alonso produces, until Bregman produces, etc.?

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, FredLynn said:

failed to get a better pitcher. Valdez or Suarez would fit the bill.

But neither one will get paid as much as Cease.  So what does that tell you?  That neither are as good.  And if Cease is not a #2, then none of the guys worse than him are #2s.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I’m not sold on the narrative that Gray couldn’t pitch in NY, but I don’t think we should ignore it either.

I agree 100%.  I have a lot of faith in his abilities, but it would be short-sighted to think that this 'couldn't' be an issue.  It can be.  But that said, anyone can show up in Fenway and play badly.

[FredLynn]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But neither one will get paid as much as Cease.  So what does that tell you?  That neither are as good.  And if Cease is not a #2, then none of the guys worse than him are #2s.

Both have better numbers than Cease. Both are better suited to be a #2 regardless of how much they will get paid-which is conjecture at this point. And both are better fits for the Red Sox, statistically speaking.

[Hugh2]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But neither one will get paid as much as Cease.  So what does that tell you?  That neither are as good.  And if Cease is not a #2, then none of the guys worse than him are #2s.

You assume that “how good” a player is alone dictates value? Or maybe not but whether intentional or not you certainly imply it.

Valdez vs. Cease is intriguing because they have almost identical value.  21 FWar to 20.5 FWar but.  Cease is one full year younger, that is probably why he ends up paid slightly more.

if Cease can get 7/210 6/175 is a pretty good asking price for camp Valdez

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Isn't that the same for everyone?  Until Alonso produces, until Bregman produces, etc.?

It could, but I didn’t know that Bregman, and Alonso were being touted as the second best pitches.🤭

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Both have better numbers than Cease. Both are better suited to be a #2 regardless of how much they will get paid-which is conjecture at this point. And both are better fits for the Red Sox, statistically speaking.

Suarez has been on the IL 4x in the past three seasons, averaging on 25 GS.  I like his talent a real lot, but there are likely reasons why DD never extended him, and that is probably his health.  Do you want to go 5-6 years with Suarez's injury history?

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Suarez has been on the IL 4x in the past three seasons, averaging on 25 GS.  I like his talent a real lot, but there are likely reasons why DD never extended him, and that is probably his health.  Do you want to go 5-6 years with Suarez's injury history?

I’d sign him. He’d be our second best SP. it always comes down to health. This is our window. Time to go for it.

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, FredLynn said:

He’s still not what we needed. He’s a 3. 
I think I’ve said my piece on Gray. Now we’ll have to wait and see how Breslow conducts himself for the rest of the winter. Hopefully we will all be pleasantly surprised, though I’d put money down that only further half assed moves are awaiting.

Gray was 17th in all of baseball pitchers in War last year. 
over the last 2 he’s 10th.

hes certainly not the “co ace” we all hoped for, or perhaps a #2 you’d be happy with on a World Series contending team.  But he’s definitively better than just a #3 and he’s being underrated by many in here.

it is what it is I suppose 

 

[oldtimer]

6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

He’s still not what we needed. He’s a 3. 
I think I’ve said my piece on Gray. Now we’ll have to wait and see how Breslow conducts himself for the rest of the winter. Hopefully we will all be pleasantly surprised, though I’d put money down that only further half assed moves are awaiting.

I believe a lot of Sox fans have been disappointed over the last few years in that nothing significant was done to help the team until last year. I'm hoping that more significant moves are coming. A #2 starter, Bregman and another big bat. If we need to trade an outfielder or Casas or package Yoshida to improve the team, then I'm all for it but wonder if much will happen. I'll be on a cruise for the next two weeks. Things should be happening while I am away.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t hate the trade at all, but I’m just that not excited that Gray will produce anymore results than what Gio did, which isn’t bad, but just not an improvement. 

That's how I see it, too.

Same with bringing Bregman back- it's just not an improvement. (Replacing Breggie with Bichette might be a push, as well.)

Were is our big plus coming from?

If the idea is Casas at 1B, what other position is left?

(Please don't say Realmuto at catcher.)

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, notin said:

On many metrics, Gray is closer to Crochet than Bello…

Yes. I posted them.

He's also 36 and is on a 2 year trend downwards, already.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean Crochet had an elite elite season.  There’s an insanely small group of pitchers on earth that are close to Crochet.

I get that, but the gap between Bello, who most view as a #3 and Crochet is a wide one.

[Larry Cook]

On 11/28/2025 at 11:13 AM, mvp 78 said:

. Part of the reason Bloom was fired was inaction at the deadline and several years of missed playoffs. I think October baseball helps JH's self esteem. 

I agree! Hang’em Chaim over valued prospects but had no problem trading veterans. 

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

You assume that “how good” a player is alone dictates value? Or maybe not but whether intentional or not you certainly imply it.

I'm going by what MLB Rumors has.  They have Cease at $189M/7, Valdez at $150M/5, and Suarez at $115M/5.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I posted them.

He's also 36 and is on a 2 year trend downwards, already.

Again, just like Alonso, the decline is baked into the price.  If this was the Gray from two years ago, when he was 2nd in Cy Young voting, we'd have paid full salary and they'd be asking for Mayer instead of two marginal talents.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Were is our big plus coming from?

If the idea is Casas at 1B, what other position is left?

(Please don't say Realmuto at catcher.)

I'm not sure why fans focus so much on the 'big plus'.  I find it more effective and efficient to add a lot of good pieces, rather than one 'big plus'.  And I have no idea why JTR is even in these conversations, unless Narvaez is hurt more than they let on.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I posted them.

He's also 36 and is on a 2 year trend downwards, already.

He is 36.

The 2 year downward trend is arguable in many cases…

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not sure why fans focus so much on the 'big plus'.  I find it more effective and efficient to add a lot of good pieces, rather than one 'big plus'.  And I have no idea why JTR is even in these conversations, unless Narvaez is hurt more than they let on.

That was the strategy when we had 10 holes to fill.

I don't see many positions needing improvement, but the ones we have are doozies.

IMO< we had 3 big holes and need 3 big pluses.

We filled one to some extent.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

He is 36.

The 2 year downward trend is arguable in many cases…

He was better in '24 than '25.

He was better in '23 than '24.