Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

[Larry Cook]

On 11/22/2025 at 4:15 PM, moonslav59 said:

How does Abreu play FT without trading an OF'er. Hell, we can't even platoon him and find enough playing time with Duran, Anthony and Rafaela.

BTW, RA and JD are also LHBs and Rafaela has reverse splits.

We are going to trade an OF'er, IMO.

Abreau has to prove it first 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Abreau has to prove it first 

He did much better than Duran vs LHPs.

Here is the rub: even if we platoon Abreu, we still have 4 OFs vs RHPs, which is 70% of all games.

Face it: WE HAVE TO TRADE ONE OF'er.

It's better to trade 2 than none.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Abreau has to prove it first 

Who? 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 11/22/2025 at 2:46 PM, Larry Cook said:

Cora said 2026 is the year abreau proves he is a full time outfielder or just a platoon guy! 
 

not many platoon guys have 2 gold gloves!! 
 

is 2026 the high water mark for abreau’s value? 
 

 

The GGs inflate his value falsely.  He leads the outfield in errors.  Remember Verdugo almost won one in RF in Boston?  It's about the underlying assumptions in the DRS formula related to Fenway Park.  DRS is not a valid estimate because of the anomalies of the underlying components in the formula.  Errors are still valid measures of the impact on the pitchers by outfield mistakes.  Rafaela will be a far better RFer in the future and Duran has 3 seasons in CF with just 2 errors.  It's hard to skew that reality into something bad.  He sucks in LF and has proven that.  His skills are fine for CF but he should not play LF.

You have many other players who can produce GGs in RF so Abreu must hit to play.  I'll take Rafaela as a hitter even if he strikes out too much because he's clutch and has power like Abreu.  Abreu has too many shortcomings to beat out either Duran or Rafaela.  Anthony has to be the LFer going forward to maximize defense.  Platooning Abreu at DH no longer works without Refsnyder and Yoshida still is on the roster.  

Selling Abreu high makes perfect sense.  There will be no impact without him as we saw this past summer.  With Garcia needing a spot, he's an ideal 4th OFer or maybe Campbell makes a comeback as the fourth OFer. 

Highlight the GGs and get something we need in return.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Selling Abreu high makes perfect sense. 

Did he have more value last offseason or now? Hard to say. Most of his metrics seemed to tick down in '25. Teams haven't been knocking down the door for him, so it's likely that he's the guy that is sticking around TBH. I'm not sure teams are really all that concerned about Gold Glove voting. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Did he have more value last offseason or now? Hard to say. Most of his metrics seemed to tick down in '25. Teams haven't been knocking down the door for him, so it's likely that he's the guy that is sticking around TBH. I'm not sure teams are really all that concerned about Gold Glove voting. 

Not even fans value GG voting all that much. Abreu is a damn good defensive RF'er and with a park like Fenway, he has extra value to us. IMO, that gets me leaning towards him not being traded. His arm is good, too.

This whole flg% argument is not even worth discussing. Sure, a few less errors by Abreu (and Rafaela) would be nice, but those two are among the top defensive OF'ers in MLB. I don't want to silence anyone's opinions, but this talk goes in one ear and out the other at the speed of light, to me.

Duran is our worst defensive OF'er of the 4 (maybe 5, if you count Garcia.) That's even before counting arm strength, which is very important in Fenway's CF and RF. He's fine in LF, but it is beyond absurd to me, to think he should be in CF. I'm fine with Rafaela in RF, but not so Duran can play CF. I'd rather have Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Anthony RF, if Abreu gets traded, so to me the only way Duran might play CF is if we trade Abreu & Rafaela. (Masa/Garcia/Campbell in LF, Duran in CF and Anthony in RF.)

[Old Red]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He did much better than Duran vs LHPs.

Here is the rub: even if we platoon Abreu, we still have 4 OFs vs RHPs, which is 70% of all games.

Face it: WE HAVE TO TRADE ONE OF'er.

It's better to trade 2 than none.

I just think it is as simple that Cora sees Duran as an every day player, and does not with Abreu.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I just think it is as simple that Cora sees Duran as an every day player, and does not with Abreu.

He called it out during his Section 10 interview. Needs to work on being able to hit the tough lefties in the division as his defense is needed in RF every night. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I just think it is as simple that Cora sees Duran as an every day player, and does not with Abreu.

Of course he does. There is no disagreement from me on that. I will say, it wasn't always like that. Like Abreu, Duran started out as a work in progress, was platooned and highly questionable as a FT'er going forward.

I could see Cora looking at having Abreu play FT in 2026, and that would be made more likely, if we traded Duran or Rafaela and did not bring Ref back. (I do think we might bring ref back, if we trade an OF'er, because we do not want to stunt Garcia or Campbell's growth by making them short-side platoon players on the big club.)

If Duran is on the 2026 Sox, Cora will NOT platoon him. If Abreu is on the 2026 Sox, he may again be platooned: he may not be, as well. If we keep all 4 OF'ers, Abreu will not start vs LHPs. My issue with keeping all 4 is who sits or DHs vs RHPs, and what a waste of value (tradeable value) that would be.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He called it out during his Section 10 interview. Needs to work on being able to hit the tough lefties in the division as his defense is needed in RF every night. 

Maybe 2025 was a blip, but Abreu did make major strides in hitting lefties. His .676 OPS is pretty close to sustainable, especially if you see how Cora felt Duran's much lower OPS vs LHPs was sustainable.

OPS vs LHPs

Duran: .428 in 30 PAs '21, .509 in 27 PAs in '22, when he only started 8 gms v L and 50 v R- that was a platoon, folks! Then, Duran turned it around: .749 in 49 PAs in '23 but still 73 GS vs R and just 9 vs L, so this whole notion that Cora has not platooned Duran is a false narrative, unless you look at just 2024 and 2025. As soon as Duran went FT, his OPS vs L dropped and dropped again:

.665 in '24 (230 PAs: 117 GS v R/43 GS v L- a strict FT player)

.600 in '25 (209 PAs: 116 GS v R and 36 v L- still a FT player)

_________________

Abreu has not been in MLB as long as Duran, and in a sense is 2 years behind him, and here are his splits vs LHPs (note the smaller sample sizes due to a near or full platoon)

.400 in '23 (just 10 PAs: GS 18 v R and 1 v L)

.532 in '24 (67 PAs, which is more PAs than Duran had in '21 and '22 combined!) 104 GS vs R and 6 v L (pretty much a strict platoon)

.676 in '25 (68 PAs, which is more PAs than Duran had in '23, but a lower OPS) 89 GS v R/ 8 GS vs L (a slight move towards a near full platoon)

Abreu's 2025 OPS is better than Duran's 2024 and 2025 OPS. This is not meant to say that Cora will platoon Duran and not the better defender Abreu, but just that maybe Abreu will not be strictly platooned in '26.

IMO, Duran will not be here in '26, so there will not be an either or or both choice to be made.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure teams are really all that concerned about Gold Glove voting. 

GGs are meaningless, but Abreu grades out well across the board.  His defense will be valued.

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

GGs are meaningless, but Abreu grades out well across the board.  His defense will be valued.

But not as much if he’s only a platoon player.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Old Red said:

But not as much if he’s only a platoon player.

If he can hit .676 v LHPs, he'd be FT on more than half the teams in MLB. It's a big if, but he's at the age where many ex-platoon players go FT, and his defense, like Duran's speed is likely enough to add enough value.

Hell, we play Rafaela FT and his splits vs RHPs and LHPs are barely better than .676.

Abreu is a damn good fielder and has a good arm for Fenway's big RF.

His DRS would blow others away, if he had more innings. Same with OAA. The GG was deserved.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If he can hit .676 v LHPs, he'd be FT on more than half the teams in MLB. It's a big if, but he's at the age where many ex-platoon players go FT, and his defense, like Duran's speed is likely enough to add enough value.

Hell, we play Rafaela FT and his splits vs RHPs and LHPs are barely better than .676.

Abreu is a damn good fielder and has a good arm for Fenway's big RF.

His DRS would blow others away, if he had more innings. Same with OAA. The GG was deserved.

With Anthony in left, rafeala in center and abreau in right, that is a solid defensive lineup. Solid also against right handed pitchers and mediocre at best against left handed pitching 

Duran as the DH and yoshida being paid by us to play for Sacramento!!!  I can live with this for the 2026 season! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Gold Gloves, like just about any awards that are voted on, are subjective.

But it has some meaning to be cited by consensus for being good at something -- especially if ballots are filled out by industry pros basing choices on observation and analysis, and not just reputation. 

Gold Glove standards now include statistical requirements to qualify for nomination, so a guy can't get on the ballot because he once was nimble around the bag when 25 pounds lighter with 25-year-old hand-eye coordination... 

Awards are always open for debate, but winners don't suck. The Yankees were a World Series team when they had Soto, so is Judge more valuable this year than last? Or is it the other way around, since they didn't even make the ALCS?

[TedYazPapiMookie]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Did he have more value last offseason or now? Hard to say. Most of his metrics seemed to tick down in '25. Teams haven't been knocking down the door for him, so it's likely that he's the guy that is sticking around TBH. I'm not sure teams are really all that concerned about Gold Glove voting. 

2 gold gloves.  Most people don't know he's got the most errors within the Red Sox outfield.  Sell now before he goes down more.  If Duran is in CF he'll trend up in 2026, if Rafaela is in RF and his hitting stays clutch and he keeps developing as a hitter he'll trend up too.  Roman will trend up.  And I think Garcia will trend up too.  

Almost any way you cut it, he deserves to be the first out the door as an outfielder.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He called it out during his Section 10 interview. Needs to work on being able to hit the tough lefties in the division as his defense is needed in RF every night. 

No question Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF is far better on defense than Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.  The numbers are conclusive.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

No question Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF is far better on defense than Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.  The numbers are conclusive.

There's no question some numbers are inconclusive. When an outfielder misjudges an airball and it goes over his head or drops in front of him untouched, it's usually called a hit.

When Duran let Judge's soft liner pop out of his glove, no error was assessed. 

The only number concluded by the Yankee Stadium official scorer is that the mighty Judge was awarded a two-out RBI-single. And Boston lost that playoff game by one run.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There's no question some numbers are inconclusive. When an outfielder misjudges an airball and it goes over his head or drops in front of him untouched, it's usually called a hit.

When Duran let Judge's soft liner pop out of his glove, no error was assessed. 

The only number concluded by the Yankee Stadium official scorer is that the mighty Judge was awarded a two-out RBI-single. And Boston lost that playoff game by one run.

If Rafaela was there, it would have turned into even more runs. Probably would have bounced off his head and into the stands. It's why Rafaela should be in RF and not CF. 

Come to think of it... they do need a 2b...

[drewski6]

54 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There's no question some numbers are inconclusive. When an outfielder misjudges an airball and it goes over his head or drops in front of him untouched, it's usually called a hit.

When Duran let Judge's soft liner pop out of his glove, no error was assessed. 

The only number concluded by the Yankee Stadium official scorer is that the mighty Judge was awarded a two-out RBI-single. And Boston lost that playoff game by one run.

It counted in my eyes as 10 errors. That drop.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

With Anthony in left, rafeala in center and abreau in right, that is a solid defensive lineup. Solid also against right handed pitchers and mediocre at best against left handed pitching 

Keeping Duran does not improve us against LHPs- he might make us worse.

Do you agree that Duran is worth more to a team like the Phillies as an OF'er than to anyone, including us as a DH? Please answer.

That is the reason he gets traded, (If he's not traded, it will be because Abreu is, and now he plays OF not DH.)

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 11/24/2025 at 8:38 AM, mvp 78 said:

Did he have more value last offseason or now? Hard to say. Most of his metrics seemed to tick down in '25. Teams haven't been knocking down the door for him, so it's likely that he's the guy that is sticking around TBH. I'm not sure teams are really all that concerned about Gold Glove voting. 

So the GGs and people wrongfully thinking he's more valuable than Duran is just a Red Sox thing?  Makes sense.  Abreu hit .212 after April 30th.  Slightly better than Campbell who out hit Abreu in April.

Shift the outfield with Rafaela in right covering the long distance between 302 and 380 and put Duran back in center where in three years he had 2 errors in over 300 chances and put our main man in left field like the other great Red Sox outfielders (Ted, Yaz, Jimbo).  

Package Abreu with Mayer and Grissom for their upside and go get a set-up/closer to couple with Chapman.  Then go sign Suarez to play 3B for $20 Million a year and splurge on Schwarber at DH.  The profits over the last five years would allow this team a one-time splurge to bring home a ring.    

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

So the GGs and people wrongfully thinking he's more valuable than Duran is just a Red Sox thing?  Makes sense.  Abreu hit .212 after April 30th.  Slightly better than Campbell who out hit Abreu in April.

Shift the outfield with Rafaela in right covering the long distance between 302 and 380 and put Duran back in center where in three years he had 2 errors in over 300 chances and put our main man in left field like the other great Red Sox outfielders (Ted, Yaz, Jimbo).  

Package Abreu with Mayer and Grissom for their upside and go get a set-up/closer to couple with Chapman.  Then go sign Suarez to play 3B for $20 Million a year and splurge on Schwarber at DH.  The profits over the last five years would allow this team a one-time splurge to bring home a ring.    

Mookie played CF for most of '15 before being sent to RF for the rest of his Sox tenure. If that's what they chose to do with Rafaela, it's better than sending him back to the IF. 

I don't think any team wants Grissom in a trade as he doesn't have any options left and has to be on an MLB roster or DFA'd. He's a negative in any trade. 

Suarez is a terrible 3b. 

I like Schwarber, but it doesn't make financial sense to pay him AND Masa to be on the same roster. They would need to find a way to get rid of Masa first, which isn't going to happen. 

What's the plan for the right side of the IF with your moves? 

[notin]

On 11/24/2025 at 11:36 PM, Larry Cook said:

With Anthony in left, rafeala in center and abreau in right, that is a solid defensive lineup. Solid also against right handed pitchers and mediocre at best against left handed pitching 

Duran as the DH and yoshida being paid by us to play for Sacramento!!!  I can live with this for the 2026 season! 

Think the Athletics are going to bench Brent Rooker in favor of Yoshida?

[notin]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I don't think any team wants Grissom in a trade as he doesn't have any options left and has to be on an MLB roster or DFA'd. He's a negative in any trade. 

If you’re packaging him with Mayer and Abreu and trying to get a set up/closer, no team will turn that down.  They’ll take Mayer and Abreu, DFA Grissom, and then likely pass away from physical exhaustion caused by their uncontrollable bouts of laughter…

[drewski6]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

Think the Athletics are going to bench Brent Rooker in favor of Yoshida?

 

Brent Rooker doesnt get enough love. Would love to have him if we cant get Schwarber.

[drewski6]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

If you’re packaging him with Mayer and Abreu and trying to get a set up/closer, no team will turn that down.  They’ll take Mayer and Abreu, DFA Grissom, and then likely pass away from physical exhaustion caused by their uncontrollable bouts of laughter…

Might even get Mason Miller for that package.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Might even get Mason Miller for that package.

That package should get you Mason Miller, Rick Miller, Shelby Miller, Wade Miller and as a PTBNL, Roger Miller…

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Think the Athletics are going to bench Brent Rooker in favor of Yoshida?

Do we care what the athletics do if they agree to take yoshida and a bunch of cash from us? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we care what the athletics do if they agree to take yoshida and a bunch of cash from us? 

The A's will not take Yoshida, unless we pay all but $3M a year of his deal. STL won't either.

Other teams might take all but $5-6M a year. I think BTV gives him a -$25M value with $36M owed, so that's about $5.5M x 2 production value.