The Rule 5 Draft Approaches: Who Should the Red Sox Protect?

[Nick John]

The offseason is officially in full swing, and the free agent and trade markets will begin to heat up as teams finalize their in-house talents. One final area regarding the 40-man roster that will need to be decided upon by tonight is protecting prospects Rule 5 Draft. For those who may not know, the Rule 5 Draft is a draft where MLB organizations can select players who are not on another team’s 40-man roster. However, players selected in this draft have to remain on the active roster for the entire season, barring time on the injured list. Players who were signed at 18 years old or younger are eligible for the draft after five seasons, and players who signed at 19 years old or older are eligible after four seasons.

There is also a minor league phase where players in Double-A or lower can be drafted for $24,000 per player to play for the drafting organization’s Triple-A team.

Last offseason, the Red Sox added two players to the 40-man to protect them: pitcher Hunter Dobbins and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Both players wound up playing in the majors with Boston during the 2025 season.

The Red Sox have likewise been benefactors from this draft, as two key members of their bullpen were acquired in such a fashion. Garrett Whitlock was taken during the 2020 Rule 5 Draft from the New York Yankees, while Justin Slaten was taken in the Rule 5 Draft by the New York Mets from the Texas Rangers and was immediately traded to Boston. Boston has also seen various prospects lost over the years, including the loss of Angel Bastardo, a pitching prospect taken in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Currently, the Red Sox's 40-man roster is full due to the addition of players who had ended the season on the 60-day injured list. For the Red Sox to protect any of their eligible prospects, they would need to open up a roster spot. And they may need to clear up a few spots just like last season.

As it stands, the team has 42 prospects eligible for the draft, though most won't be considerations during the major league portion. It isn’t ideal to develop prospects and have them taken by another team, but fortunately for the Red Sox, most of their top prospects have either graduated to the big league club or have been packaged in trades for talent.

However, there are still a few names that bring into question whether the Red Sox should protect them or not. We’re going to break down these players and see why they may not want to be lost.

Likely To Be Added:

Unlike last season, there is really only one player who is likely to be added to the 40-man roster this time around.

RHP David Sandlin (MLB Pipeline #9 Red Sox Prospect)

Sandlin came over to the Red Sox in a spring training trade with the Royals in 2024, turning a surplus in middle relievers into an interesting pitching prospect. His first season had its share of ups and downs as he split the year between High-A and Double-A, finishing with some less than ideal stats.

Despite starting 18 games, Sandlin only managed to toss 57 1/3 innings in that span. What did impress, however, was his ability to generate strikeouts, as he got 82 batters to fan. While he wasn’t going deep into games, Sandlin’s stuff did flash the potential of an impact reliever thanks to his fastball.

The 2025 campaign yielded a step forward, Sandlin cruising in Portland for most of the season. Through his first 17 appearances, he had tossed 82 1/3 innings with an ERA that was nearly two runs lower than his final 2024 number at 3.61. While his strikeouts took a step back (only 86 in those 82 1/3 innings), Sandlin was beginning to look more like a professional pitcher who could locate his stuff and pitch to contact when necessary. This change in demeanor had many wondering if the Red Sox would bring him up to Boston for the stretch run to help out in some form.

The idea was floated around as the team transitioned him to the bullpen upon his promotion to Triple-A. Unfortunately, he struggled with the transition, allowing 19 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings out of the Worcester bullpen.

Despite his struggles, Sandlin has showcased the potential of a major league arm and will only be 25 at the start of spring training. It wouldn’t be a surprise if another team took a flier on him if he were available. The Red Sox would be wise to protect him from being poached by another team.

Coin Flips

Besides Sandlin, there isn’t a definite player that seems to be a lock to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft. While no team wants their developed prospects pilfered, the Red Sox wouldn’t be losing much should another team want to take a risk. However, there are a couple players that the team may want to protect just to play it safe after how their 2025 seasons went.  

RHP Tyler Uberstine

Uberstine was a 19th-round selection back in the 2021 MLB Draft and hadn’t done much to write home about prior to 2025. His first season in 2022 saw him finish the year with seven starts with High-A Greenville where he flashed some potential thanks in part to 35 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings pitched. Unfortunately, he would go on to miss all of 2023 and most of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, making 2025 his first full season since his debut year.

Despite that prolonged layoff, Uberstine pitched rather well, finishing this year with a 6-5 record in 25 games between Portland and Worcester. Tossing 120 1/3 innings, he also blew past his previous career-high workload while striking out 137 batters. That strikeout per nine figure of 10.1 will intrigue a lot of teams this winter.

The Red Sox have many other pitching prospects ahead of Uberstine on the depth chart, and because of that, it’s unlikely they’ll add him to the 40-man roster. A team looking for a young, cost-controlled pitcher might take a risk on him due to his strikeout numbers alone, and the Red Sox probably wouldn’t worry too much unless there’s something in his underlying metrics they really love.

RHP Yordanny Monegro (MLB Pipeline’s #27 Red Sox Prospect)

Much like with Uberstine, Monegro is below a few pitchers on the depth chart and will miss most, if not all of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of August. That alone is why he might be at high risk of being picked in the Rule 5 Draft, as another talented Red Sox arm was taken in this manner in 2024 (Bastardo) knowing that he could be stashed on the 60-day injured list all season.

Monegro is young, as he won’t turn 24 until next October and while his ceiling right now looks like a middle reliever, he flashed potential during his time in the rotation in 2024 and in 2025 before his injury. Despite making just nine appearances in 2025, the right-hander tossed 33 2/3 innings and struck out 49 batters while walking just eight, good for a walk to strikeout ratio of 2.14 and a strikeout per nine of 13.10.

Monegro's best pitch is his slider, which averages between 85-88 mph and is thrown more than any other of his pitches. His fastball, on the other, hand seems to be a work in progress, as his four-seam sits between 94 and 96 mph but he lacks proper command and control of it.

Because of the elbow surgery, Monegro is a prime draft-and-stash candidate for a few teams who might be interested in seeing how he develops, especially as they wouldn’t need to keep him on the 26-man active roster unlike other Rule 5 picks. And because he would make it through the 2026 season without being demoted, whatever team takes him would then be free to send him to the minors in 2027 to continue his development without worry of having to send him back to his original organization.

The Red Sox could do the same, placing him on the 40-man roster to protect him and then placing him on the 60-Day injured list the moment it’s possible. Though, that would require them to use a 40-man spot on him all offseason. There’s a good chance they take a risk and leave him unprotected.

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Again, the Red Sox have a total of 42 prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, but unlike past seasons, there aren’t many names who stand out as likely candidates to be selected. Beyond Sandlin, the team may comfortable leaving everyone else unprotected.

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[moonslav59]

Monegro is coming off a major injury and may not even pitch in 2026. Nobody will take up a slot for that, and he's not really even all that promising. I know our farm has a lot of pitching prospects, but he's like our 18th ranked pitcher.

Uberstine is our 12th ranked pitcher at age 26. I have no issue leaving him unprotected.

I think we protect Sandlin and nobody else.

My closest to borderline are: Mullins and maybe Bleis. Paez might be, but he's hurt, too.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I think we protect Sandlin and nobody else.

 

Agreed.

[Nick John]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Monegro is coming off a major injury and may not even pitch in 2026. Nobody will take up a slot for that, and he's not really even all that promising. I know our farm has a lot of pitching prospects, but he's like our 18th ranked pitcher.

Uberstine is our 12th ranked pitcher at age 26. I have no issue leaving him unprotected.

I think we protect Sandlin and nobody else.

My closest to borderline are: Mullins and maybe Bleis. Paez might be, but he's hurt, too.

Angel Bastatdo was coming off of a major injury and was projected to miss all of 2025 but was still taken. If a team likes Monegro they'll take him regardless of injury. They're not losing anything by taking him and then stashing him on the 60-day IL. 

As for Uberstine, there's a reason it's a coin toss for him. He's still young but older than all our other pitching prospects. Unless the Sox feel he's going to take a huge leap next year they'll leave him off the roster.

[notin]

I think they protect Sandlin and nobody else, and they usually protect fewer people than I think they will.

I do wonder if they protect Noah Song, who pitched at 5 levels last year, ending in AAA…

[Alex Mayes]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

I think they protect Sandlin and nobody else, and they usually protect fewer people than I think they will.

I do wonder if they protect Noah Song, who pitched at 5 levels last year, ending in AAA…

I'd like to see them protect Song. He flashed really good stuff at each level and looks like a legit contributor out of the pen moving forward. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

I'd like to see them protect Song. He flashed really good stuff at each level and looks like a legit contributor out of the pen moving forward. 

I believe Song and Drohan if picked again would not have to be returned to the Sox. I don't think there's any chance Song is added. Drohan being added is like 15%. 

[mvp 78]

Sandlin 90%

Monegro 33% (long time to keep him on the 40 man with no BOS benefit)

Uberstine 33%

Mullins 25%

Drohan 15%

Paez 1%

Rivera 1%

Song 1%

 

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, Nick John said:

Angel Bastatdo was coming off of a major injury and was projected to miss all of 2025 but was still taken. If a team likes Monegro they'll take him regardless of injury. They're not losing anything by taking him and then stashing him on the 60-day IL. 

As for Uberstine, there's a reason it's a coin toss for him. He's still young but older than all our other pitching prospects. Unless the Sox feel he's going to take a huge leap next year they'll leave him off the roster.

What they lose is offseason 40 man space. It makes sense for a struggling team to grab him, stash him and then only have to keep him on the MLB roster for a partial season in '27. 

For the Sox, they need the 40 man flexibility more than they need Monegro.

[Alex Mayes]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe Song and Drohan if picked again would not have to be returned to the Sox. I don't think there's any chance Song is added. Drohan being added is like 15%. 

I agree there's a next to zero chance he's protected, I just wish he was haha. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What they lose is offseason 40 man space. It makes sense for a struggling team to grab him, stash him and then only have to keep him on the MLB roster for a partial season in '27. 

For the Sox, they need the 40 man flexibility more than they need Monegro.

How long can you stash a guy on the IL before losing your rights to a Rule 5 selction?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How long can you stash a guy on the IL before losing your rights to a Rule 5 selction?

They can be on it for the whole season. The following year, they need to be on the active roster for only 90 days, I believe. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sandlin 90%

Monegro 33% (long time to keep him on the 40 man with no BOS benefit)

Uberstine 33%

Mullins 25%

Drohan 15%

Paez 1%

Rivera 1%

Song 1%

 

I'd say...

99% Sandlin

20% Mullins

10% Monegro

5% Uberstine

<1% all others.

[Nick John]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

What they lose is offseason 40 man space. It makes sense for a struggling team to grab him, stash him and then only have to keep him on the MLB roster for a partial season in '27. 

For the Sox, they need the 40 man flexibility more than they need Monegro.

That's why I said he'll be taken by another team. Someone will pull the same move the Jays did last year with Bastardo and draft him only to stash him away on the 60-day IL.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Nick John said:

That's why I said he'll be taken by another team. Someone will pull the same move the Jays did last year with Bastardo and draft him only to stash him away on the 60-day IL.

I'm just not sure Monegro is that type of pitcher. Granted, I did not think Bastardo was either. It just takes one GM, but my guess is there are a dozen or more pitchers in a similar situation as Monegro, including 17th ranked Paez, also a Rule 5 guy vs #32 Monegro.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Nick John said:

That's why I said he'll be taken by another team. Someone will pull the same move the Jays did last year with Bastardo and draft him only to stash him away on the 60-day IL.

Yes, unlikely the Sox protect him, but likely he gets taken. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm just not sure Monegro is that type of pitcher. Granted, I did not think Bastardo was either. It just takes one GM, but my guess is there are a dozen or more pitchers in a similar situation as Monegro, including 17th ranked Paez, also a Rule 5 guy vs #32 Monegro.

Paez has never pitched above A ball and can't be stashed for a year via IL. He'd have to sit in an MLB bullpen for all of '26. If he's taken, there's a good chance he'll end up back in BOS. 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm just not sure Monegro is that type of pitcher. Granted, I did not think Bastardo was either. It just takes one GM, but my guess is there are a dozen or more pitchers in a similar situation as Monegro, including 17th ranked Paez, also a Rule 5 guy vs #32 Monegro.

I think too many GMs make weird Rule 5 pickups, because it typically isn’t a good way to add a player.   It combines the disadvantage of losing a year of control with a year of development simultaneously. 
 

But since we all saw DD try to grab Noah Song after a multiyear absence from organized baseball, a questionable call that ended predictably, I don’t think anyone can anticipate who will get picked anymore…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Paez has never pitched above A ball and can't be stashed for a year via IL. He'd have to sit in an MLB bullpen for all of '26. If he's taken, there's a good chance he'll end up back in BOS. 

I thought Paez was on the IL- like Monegro.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

I think too many GMs make weird Rule 5 pickups, because it typically isn’t a good way to add a player.   It combines the disadvantage of losing a year of control with a year of development simultaneously. 
 

But since we all saw DD try to grab Noah Song after a multiyear absence from organized baseball, a questionable call that ended predictably, I don’t think anyone can anticipate who will get picked anymore…

It is unpredictable. We may have 2-3 guys taken... or none.

I'm not sure why Monegro jumps out more than others? He's ranked 33rd on sp.com for a reason. He's been in the minors since 2020 and never got above 76 IP.

sp.com says this...

Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a solid, multi-inning middle reliever. Lacks the fastball quality or changeup to stick as a starter, especially given the effort in his delivery. Throws his fastballs less than 30 percent of the time. Has tried both a sinker and a four-seam fastball, but neither has been especially effective. Has struggled to miss bats with his fastball in the low minors, which will become even more of an issue against advanced bats. Slider is his best pitch and came on strong in 2024, but curveball has taken a slight step back. Changeup has gotten better, but is still a work in progress. Slider is a good enough pitch alone to carry him to the high minors, but he will need to find a second offering to complement it. If he takes a step forward with another pitch, projects as an intriguing relief prospect, as his velocity could jump further in short bursts. To have a chance to stick as a starter, needs to make major strides with finding a fastball that can miss bats and getting more consistent with his changeup. Pitches with emotion and swagger, and extreme confidence; entertaining to watch on the mound.

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

I think too many GMs make weird Rule 5 pickups, because it typically isn’t a good way to add a player.   It combines the disadvantage of losing a year of control with a year of development simultaneously. 
 

But since we all saw DD try to grab Noah Song after a multiyear absence from organized baseball, a questionable call that ended predictably, I don’t think anyone can anticipate who will get picked anymore…

Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, our starting Catcher, Whitlock (I believe)

I wanna flip the conversation if I may.  Not who we protecting. Thats boring (no offense).  WHo we getting?

[notin]

2 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

I agree there's a next to zero chance he's protected, I just wish he was haha. 

Even if he gets selected, it seems like at least half of all Rule 5 selections get returned.  I say that with no supporting data…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, our starting Catcher, Whitlock (I believe)

I wanna flip the conversation if I may.  Not who we protecting. Thats boring (no offense).  WHo we getting?

Former HR champ George Bell was another…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, our starting Catcher, Whitlock (I believe)

I wanna flip the conversation if I may.  Not who we protecting. Thats boring (no offense).  WHo we getting?

As for who are the Sox getting, no one can answer that.  We don’t even know who is available yet.  But the likely answer is no one, since the 40 man roster is currently full and they have to DFA someone just to add Sandlin…

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

I think too many GMs make weird Rule 5 pickups, because it typically isn’t a good way to add a player.   It combines the disadvantage of losing a year of control with a year of development simultaneously. 
 

But since we all saw DD try to grab Noah Song after a multiyear absence from organized baseball, a questionable call that ended predictably, I don’t think anyone can anticipate who will get picked anymore…

DD did it just to stick it to the Sox. The perfect use of a Rule 5 pick is a high upside relief arm like Sandlin. 

We saw it with Whitlock and Slaten. Ryan Fernandez had a decent '24 after being taken by STL. 

We're seeing teams shy away from drafting positional players as they are harder to stash and don't typically have the upside. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

As for who are the Sox getting, no one can answer that.  We don’t even know who is available yet.  But the likely answer is no one, since the 40 man roster is currently full and they have to DFA someone just to add Sandlin…

Didn't take anyone last season. Probably won't take anyone this year either unless somebody they really like falls to them. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Former HR champ George Bell was another…

Bobby Bonilla

Anthony Santander

Darrell Evans

Josh Hamilton

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

As for who are the Sox getting, no one can answer that.  We don’t even know who is available yet.  But the likely answer is no one, since the 40 man roster is currently full and they have to DFA someone just to add Sandlin…

I think more likely than not to get someone.  Get the crunch, but you know.... turn and churn.  

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Didn't take anyone last season. Probably won't take anyone this year either unless somebody they really like falls to them. 

Why did I think Nav was rule 5, could be wrong. Whitlock def was, right?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why did I think Nav was rule 5, could be wrong. Whitlock def was, right?

Omar Narvaez was Rule 5