The Rule 5 Draft Approaches: Who Should the Red Sox Protect?

[moonslav59]

So, Murphy for a single A catcher clears a slot.

Bernardino to SEA for a utility type guy who has AAA experience. (no 40 man needed?) I liked BB.

Hoppe (not on 40) to SEA for a faraway C/1Bman.

Did I miss anything else while walking my dogs?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I am sure these teams will watch film on Sandlin. If you watch film from the first have of 2025, Sandlin looks great. 
if you look at film of Sandlin from the back half of the year, Sandlin is a train wreck! 
 

how can any team justify keeping Sandlin on their roster for all of 2026? 

Miami could.

A selecting team could also work out a trade for him outright

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Miami could.

A selecting team could also work out a trade for him outright

I could certainly see MIA trade for Sandlin. Maybe a team like PIT might, if the brass think highly enough of his upside.

I've kinda soured on him, but he still has some promise.

[moonslav59]

Have we named anybody?

I guess there's still an hour to the deadline.

[moonslav59]

SEA traded for Hoppe and added him to the 40, so there was someone that flew under our radar.

We selected Sandlin, Drohan & Uberstine to take the slots of Murphy (traded), Bernardino (traded) & Winckowski (DFA'd)

[moonslav59]

I guess our 40 was pretty deep, as we traded 3 guys, instead of DFA'g more than just Wink. (Maybe Wink gets traded, if he's not claimed. I'm sure we tried to trade him.)

We also thought our farm was rather short on ML ready prospects as we promoted a bunch, this year, but we basically had 4, if you count Hoppe who was traded and added to the 40 w SEA.

I like Bernardino. I still had some hope with Murphy. Maybe I was higher on Wink than I should have been. Hoppe came out of nowhere. I had Mullins ahead of him.

Maybe this is a sign Moran has life, but once we start signing FA's, someone else has to go.

What's the first to go list, now? (Assuming no better players get traded.)

1. T Gray

2. Grissom

3. Eaton or Sogard (if Grissom stays)

4. Moran or Criswell (out of options)

5. Hicks (in my dreams)

 

 

[mvp 78]

The Hoppe for Heyman trade is interesting. BA ranked Heyman 127th. He's a plus power guy who missed the end of last year due to a fractured forearm. 

His Baseball America pre-draft scouting report noted, “Heyman offers plus raw power and improving swing decisions. He generates carry and lift to the pull side, even on pitches thrown in the outer half of the zone. While Heyman struggled somewhat with offspeed pitches, particularly changeups, he crushed velocity, a byproduct of solid bat speed and rhythm. He stays balanced through his swing and can punish mistakes over the plate.”

Baseball America graded his power and arm both 55 (above average) on its 20-80 grading scale.

The site added about his defense, “Scouts believe he has a chance to stick behind the plate thanks to above-average arm strength and improved receiving and blocking. He presented pitches more cleanly than in years past and showed a feel for handling a staff.”

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess our 40 was pretty deep, as we traded 3 guys, instead of DFA'g more than just Wink. (Maybe Wink gets traded, if he's not claimed. I'm sure we tried to trade him.)

We also thought our farm was rather short on ML ready prospects as we promoted a bunch, this year, but we basically had 4, if you count Hoppe who was traded and added to the 40 w SEA.

My complaint was the lack of positional prospects. The Sox have struggled to fill the org with 1B/C prospects for several years. Seems like Craig found a few. The only trade that was surprising to me was the Guerrero one, but maybe Gray will work out like Romy has. We'll see. 

Seems like they have faith in Uberstine. Drohan deserves some run in the bullpen next year but needs to stay healthy for once. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

My complaint was the lack of positional prospects. The Sox have struggled to fill the org with 1B/C prospects for several years. Seems like Craig found a few. The only trade that was surprising to me was the Guerrero one, but maybe Gray will work out like Romy has. We'll see. 

Seems like they have faith in Uberstine. Drohan deserves some run in the bullpen next year but needs to stay healthy for once. 

I share your concern, but when you graduate the amount of positional prospects we have in the last 2-3 years, a lull can and should be expected. When you see the years of low cost control we have on so many everyday players, the worry lessens, some.
 

2025: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell & Narvaez

20024: Rafaela, Abreu, DHam & Sogard

2023: Casas & Wong

That's 6-8 solid players added to 3 years of Duran and 2-3 of Story. That makes 8-10 players not counting  Romy, Yoshida & Garcia. We do have some specific positions lacking in depth and or dependable talent, like corner infield and C, but with so much excess in the OF, we could make a trade or two and look all set at every position for 3+ years.

That does not fully take away from the issue you mentioned. Arias, Gonzales, Godbout and maybe Romero or Taylor is woefully lacking in numbers and high skill levels.

Signing a couple corner infielders to 3+ year deals would lessen the immediate concerns, but we rarely get what we hope for.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Murphy for a single A catcher clears a slot.

Bernardino to SEA for a utility type guy who has AAA experience. (no 40 man needed?) I liked BB.

Hoppe (not on 40) to SEA for a faraway C/1Bman.

Did I miss anything else while walking my dogs?

Quite an eventful walk!

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Quite an eventful walk!

I expected 1 Rule 5 guys not 4 (counting Hoppe added to SEA's 40.)

The Guerrero trade is no shocker, and I guess the Wink DFA should not have been. Lowe was expected.

Nothing was really earth-shattering, but the amount of moves was a bit surprising.

I'm not really sure or ML ready 40 man roster is any better, but the farm depth improved. Some budget issues were settled. As MVP pointed out, we rid ourselves of a lot of higher BB% pitchers.

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Murphy for a single A catcher clears a slot.

Bernardino to SEA for a utility type guy who has AAA experience. (no 40 man needed?) I liked BB.

Hoppe (not on 40) to SEA for a faraway C/1Bman.

Did I miss anything else while walking my dogs?

Pure guess here is that Tolle starts the year in the BP.  I like BB as well, but this might be a structure type move.

[JoeBrady]

17 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I am sure these teams will watch film on Sandlin. If you watch film from the first have of 2025, Sandlin looks great. 
if you look at film of Sandlin from the back half of the year, Sandlin is a train wreck! 
 

how can any team justify keeping Sandlin on their roster for all of 2026? 

The Rox, Nats and Angels would take him in a heartbeat.  When you are guaranteed to finish last, and have no BP, you bet on the 100 velo guys 100% of the time.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Pure guess here is that Tolle starts the year in the BP.  I like BB as well, but this might be a structure type move.

I suggested that, a while ago.

They may start with Fitts in the pen and Tolle in the AAA rotation, but if a need arises, he may be at the top of the list on a promotion to the Sox pen in 2026.

Crawford may also be considered for a pen conversion.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Pure guess here is that Tolle starts the year in the BP.  I like BB as well, but this might be a structure type move.

I get why you would think that on Tolle because his fastball is more MLB ready than his secondaries, and you can be more fastball reliant out of the pen.

But the argument against is Tolle's body.  That body can handle the rigors of starting pitching without breaking down, and thats not exactly something that grows on trees.

If the pen needs the help, I can see Tolle entering to help it.  But I think they start with Tolle as a starter either in MLB or AAA cuz he's 6'6 with a man body.  I think its more likely they put someone wiry in the pen.

[moonslav59]

We also have to consider that using Tolle in the pen in 2026 does not mean he can never be a starter again.

True, you don't want to jerk a kid around and back and forth, but we are going for a ring in 2026. You gotta play your best players where they are needed.

[drewski6]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We also have to consider that using Tolle in the pen in 2026 does not mean he can never be a starter again.

True, you don't want to jerk a kid around and back and forth, but we are going for a ring in 2026. You gotta play your best players where they are needed.

100% agree.  But I dont think they START the year with Tolle in the pen.  I think if there is an injury at some point in the year to the pen (or multiple) and Tolle is starting at AAA, he is very likely to enter the MLB pen at that point

But I think we'll start the year with a very good pen and they'll (to start the year) prefer to keep Tolle stretched out as their #6 or #7 starter they can park in AAA until they need him because you know as well as I there will be 13 different dudes who start a game for us next year.

I also think Tolle can win a job in the MLB rotation with a strong offseason and spring.

[drewski6]

Just teach Tolle a splitter. Dudes a giant, I assume he has mitts for hands.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I get why you would think that on Tolle because his fastball is more MLB ready than his secondaries, and you can be more fastball reliant out of the pen.

But the argument against is Tolle's body.  That body can handle the rigors of starting pitching without breaking down, and thats not exactly something that grows on trees.

If the pen needs the help, I can see Tolle entering to help it.  But I think they start with Tolle as a starter either in MLB or AAA cuz he's 6'6 with a man body.  I think its more likely they put someone wiry in the pen.

It would be for only one year.  I think he's maxed out at the minor league level, but still has more development to come.  One year in the BP/#6, followed by 5 years as an SP.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It would be for only one year.  I think he's maxed out at the minor league level, but still has more development to come.  One year in the BP/#6, followed by 5 years as an SP.

I disagree hes maxed at minor league level.  He badly needs better secondaries.  I also disagree with the notion that 50 innings at MLB will continue to development but 180 innings at AAA wont.  If anything , i think its the opposite, because outta the pen at MLB he would lean on his fastball and not need to (as much) develop the secondaries vs at AAA he can hyper focus at developing his secondaries.

All his "better" secondaries have horizontal glove side movement (sweeper, slider, cutter) so he could very much stand to benefit from a splitter (straight down) or a circle change (inverse, arm-side movement) to help vs righties. This is a situation where being a lefty actually works against him, cuz its very hard to throw left-to-right breaking pitches (from pitcher perspective) against righties and be consistently effective.  A lot of that stuff is to play off other stuff (e.g. a backfoot slider, or an "running in on your hands" broken bat cutter).

The reason you would put him a pen is because he can at present, probably already get lefties out with ease.  But sweepers and sliders and cutters are dangerous to righties from a lefty.  He doesnt have the command (yet) to back door em, which hed need to do.  Thers only so many back foot sliders you can throw before major leaguers start crushing em. Thtas a diminishing return pitch (the back foot slider, so coming in on a righty), and with the cutter, he'd have to be maddux or Mariano level to feature a cutter vs a righty as a lefty.  If he did master the cutter though, he'd lead the league in complete games (1 pitch broken bat ground outs , all day - which is an exciting possibility)

[drewski6]

He (Tolle) nees a circle change, splitter, forkball, or a 12-6 uncle Charlie Hammner. Something breaking eitehr down or arm side.  Or a sinker.

Theres a reason why so many left starters throw sinkers and 2-seams. Because they arent way more effective vs same sided hitters as  sliders, sweepers, cutters

Hes a lefty with a righty aresnal, and its currently preventing him from taking the next step.

But one thing I overlooked until right now, being on the major league roster (vs AAA) increases the chances that Bello will teach him a 2 seamer/sinker (does bello throw a 2 seamer or a sinker because some nights it looks like a 2 seamer and some nights a sinker and sometimes it looks like he throws both, and i cant figure it out) but what i do know - teach it to tolle.

[moonslav59]

I'd prefer Tolle not be practicing new pitches at the big level.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd prefer Tolle not be practicing new pitches at the big level.

I could see Tolle starting at AAA and Early at MLB, but Tolle being above Early in the depth chart by year end.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I could see Tolle starting at AAA and Early at MLB, but Tolle being above Early in the depth chart by year end.

Sounds right. I think both start in AAA as we will trade for a #2 and maybe sign Matz.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I could see Tolle starting at AAA and Early at MLB, but Tolle being above Early in the depth chart by year end.

Reading about his pitch mix has me excited about him again.  Im reading that he can back-door the cutter, which is awesome cuz thats very useful vs righties.  Looks like he has a slider and a sweeper. The slider having more vertical break so it can be thrown to righties. The sweeper is best used as putaway pitch against lefties.  They say his changeup has 2 shapes, one of which breaks like a sinker (which is actually how circle changes break) with the other change-up shape being more late break - straight down (a regular change-up). Seems like hes not changing his grip , its just that sometimes his change looks like a circle change and sometimes it looks like a regular change, and if he can figure that out and command/control it so he knows what shape its going to be (maybe he eventually keeps both if he figures out why one breaks like a circle-change and one regular).

Then hes got 2 curveballs , one being a sweeper (I know this sounds crazy but a sweeper is a curveball NOT a slider, I know thats counterintuitive because it breaks horizontal even more than a slider does).  But he also has a 1-11 curveball, which is more depth (so can be thrown to righties).  I wonder if the 1-11 curve is slow/loopy or sharp like a hammer curve (hammer curve , or as Eck calls em an "uncle charlie")

Did Eck make up the nickname "uncle charlie" for a hammer curve (a harder/sharper curve tha tends to break more vertical than a traditional curveball with later break).

Tolle has the ingredients.  I hope one day soon, the soup is as good as the ingredients.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Tolle has the ingredients.  I hope one day soon, the soup is as good as the ingredients.

The secondaries just need a lot of time to mature. He's only had one year to be a professional and in college he was a one pitch pitcher. If he was in AAA through July, I wouldn't be concerned. Let him get two average secondaries and he'll be fine. 

[moonslav59]

Some notes on our additions:

Braiden Ward (Bernardino trade) is Rule 5 eligible but not likely to be selected. He plays OF but can play 2B and 3B.

Ronny Hernandez (Murphy) is a catcher and had a .367 OBP in low A-Ball over the last 2 seasons combined. Sp.com thinks he has "natural power."

Luke Heyman (Hoppe) is projected by sp.com to be a top 40 prospect. He is another catcher. He was ranked 127th before this year's draft (4th rd) but fell to the 14th rd after he broke his arm.

T Gray is Rule 5 eligible, too but just passed through waivers so likely will not be selected. We dealt out own waivers guy, Guerrero, for him.

sp.com says Mullins is the most likely guy to be selected and to stick with a team all year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd prefer Tolle not be practicing new pitches at the big level.

I prefer Tolle to bat clean-up, like he did in college. Guy's a beast (well, more beastly than our other current candidates until Mass Attacker returns from the next WBC).

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I prefer Tolle to bat clean-up, like he did in college. Guy's a beast (well, more beastly than our other current candidates until Mass Attacker returns from the next WBC).

Don't run this idea by Drewski.

[notin]

On 11/18/2025 at 6:19 PM, moonslav59 said:

SEA traded for Hoppe and added him to the 40, so there was someone that flew under our radar.

Seattle gave up last year’s 14th round pick for a 27yo AAA pitcher.  Not sure anyone in this deal is flying anywhere, let alone under the radar…