Boston Red Sox Looking For An Upgrade Over Jarren Duran

[Matthew Lenz]

The Boston Red Sox are looking to be aggressive this offseason, and the stove is already getting hot for the team. While MLBTR previously listed Jarren Duran (and Wilyer Abreu) as one of the top 40 trade candidates this offseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests that it is a focus of the team this offseason.

Yesterday, Nightengale reported that the Boston Red Sox "believe they need an upgrade over Jarren Duran and that he needs a fresh start." He took it even further by stating that "it would be a massive surprise if he's in Fort Myers come spring training.

Duran, who is controllable through 2028, has been a polarizing figure throughout his career. From multiple controversial comments to up-and-down performances, the 29-year-old has been the subject of trade rumors in the past, and those rumors may continue this offseason. In 2025, he carried an OPS of .774 with 16 home runs and 24 stolen bases across 696 plate appearances.

Do you think the Red Sox should move Duran before Opening Day 2025? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Bellhorn04]

Well, I hope they have a good upgrade lined up, because Duran has been the team's best player over the last 2.5 seasons, and its most durable over the last 2.

[mvp 78]

The upgrade is Roman Anthony in LF. 

Will they actually move Jarren this year? Who knows. 

[notin]

Moving an OF is obvious.  There are pros and cons to dealing either Duran or Abreu.  But that quote from Nightengale makes it sound like the Sox are looking for another outfielder, which I find confusing…

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Moving an OF is obvious.  There are pros and cons to dealing either Duran or Abreu.  But that quote from Nightengale makes it sound like the Sox are looking for another outfielder, which I find confusing…

The con to trading Abreu is that other orgs apparently aren't interested in him. 

Cora was willing to move Duran away from leading off during '25, so dealing him this offseason shouldn't really upend the lineup. 

[Hugh2]

I think if you're the Red Sox, you're dangling all of Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela, and taking the best deal on the table. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The con to trading Abreu is that other orgs apparently aren't interested in him. 

Cora was willing to move Duran away from leading off during '25, so dealing him this offseason shouldn't really upend the lineup. 

Ya, I automatically assumed an "upgrade" meant a different leadoff man. Nowadays, that doesn't have to be a speed demon, but just someone with a high On Base %. 

Of course, it 's great to have a 50-home run hitter like Ohtani or Schwarber there to give you an instant lead (which can negate a high K-rate; Duran doesn't go yard enough for his...).

Anthony is constantly on base, but is a better fit batting second or third so he can drive in someone in front of him with a high OBP. 

Looking at the 2025 stats, Ketel Marte was 5th in the NL in OBP, had a low K-rate and socked more homers than anyone in Boston. Just saying...

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think if you're the Red Sox, you're dangling all of Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela, and taking the best deal on the table. 

Rafaela's name comes up more frequently in trade requests from what has been said on various reports. 

[notin]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, I automatically assumed an "upgrade" meant a different leadoff man. Nowadays, that doesn't have to be a speed demon, but just someone with a high On Base %. 

Of course, it 's great to have a 50-home run hitter like Ohtani or Schwarber there to give you an instant lead (which can negate a high K-rate; Duran doesn't go yard enough for his...).

Anthony is constantly on base, but is a better fit batting second or third so he can drive in someone in front of him with a high OBP. 

Looking at the 2025 stats, Ketel Marte was 5th in the NL in OBP, had a low K-rate and socked more homers than anyone in Boston. Just saying...

Getting Marte might mean no Alonso, but I’m on board regardless.

Marte and trade for Yandy and call the lineup fixed…

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Getting Marte might mean no Alonso, but I’m on board regardless.

Marte and trade for Yandy and call the lineup fixed…

He's about as fast as Alonso. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's about as fast as Alonso. 

A Silver Slugger NL second baseman the last two years with a positive dWAR is about as good as it gets for a team without a decent regular at 2B since Pedroia.

Seriously, the best second baseman in Boston since Machado ulfed Dustin was probably Story in his first year here. But he's busy elsewhere these days!

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Getting Marte might mean no Alonso, but I’m on board regardless.

Marte and trade for Yandy and call the lineup fixed…

If Duran or Campbell are included in the KMarte trade, the net AAV will be about $12M. We could stilla fford Alonso or Schwarber.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If Duran or Campbell are included in the KMarte trade, the net AAV will be about $12M. We could stilla fford Alonso or Schwarber.

But then how do the Sox upgrade at SP, whom I presume will not be a volunteer?

[JoeBrady]

the Boston Red Sox "believe they need an upgrade over Jarren Duran."

One more conversation with the RS FO that never took place.  It doesn't even make sense.

1-Duran is #4 in OF fWAR over the past two seasons.  Outside of signing Tucker for $400M, it's almost impossible to upgrade over  Duran.

2-The RS already have too outfielders.  They aren't adding another one in any circumstances.  This is one of the few times I don't use the phrase 'virtually' no chance.  There is no chance they are acquiring another outfielder to replace Duran.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

But then how do the Sox upgrade at SP, whom I presume will not be a volunteer?

I've made numerous suggestions- almost all via a trade or two, but yes, if we trade for KMarte, who is left to trade for Ryan, Lodolo, Lopez, Keller and ....

I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, but only because he will not get a long deal. I'm not thrilled about this FA picthing class, especially if it's large and long.

I seriously doubt Brez & Co decide to do two major trades, and I'm not sure I'd want to do that, either, but if we get payers with several years of control, it won't be only about the hear and now.

How about this? (BTV might approve)

Duran, DHam & Sandlin for Lodolo and McClain

Campbell, Early & Fitts for KMarte

or

Campbell & Early for Ryan

Duran, Arias & Fitts for KMarte

Then, use the budget to add Alonso and maybe Ref + Matz 

 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

the Boston Red Sox "believe they need an upgrade over Jarren Duran."

One more conversation with the RS FO that never took place.  It doesn't even make sense.

1-Duran is #4 in OF fWAR over the past two seasons.  Outside of signing Tucker for $400M, it's almost impossible to upgrade over  Duran.

2-The RS already have too outfielders.  They aren't adding another one in any circumstances.  This is one of the few times I don't use the phrase 'virtually' no chance.  There is no chance they are acquiring another outfielder to replace Duran.

Do you project Duran to be #4 in FWAR among 2026 OF'ers?

Also, trading Duran for a pitcher or KMarte is not adding an OF"er. The idea is that Anthony will replace Duran not be a downgrade, but we upgrade 2B from a merry-go-round of circus clowns to one of the best, and one who has real power to boot! (He's about top 15 or 20 in ISO.)

2024-2025 fWAR

KMart 15.3

Duran 13.2

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But then how do the Sox upgrade at SP, whom I presume will not be a volunteer?

Because Duran is the only way to get a number 2?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Because Duran is the only way to get a number 2?

I think some teams would prefer the younger, less expensive, longer controlled, higher ISO, better defender Abreu over Duran.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Because Duran is the only way to get a number 2?

He is certainly a good way.  What else do you propose?

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've made numerous suggestions- almost all via a trade or two, but yes, if we trade for KMarte, who is left to trade for Ryan, Lodolo, Lopez, Keller and ....

I've mentioned Merrill Kelly, but only because he will not get a long deal. I'm not thrilled about this FA picthing class, especially if it's large and long.

I seriously doubt Brez & Co decide to do two major trades, and I'm not sure I'd want to do that, either, but if we get payers with several years of control, it won't be only about the hear and now.

How about this? (BTV might approve)

Duran, DHam & Sandlin for Lodolo and McClain

Campbell, Early & Fitts for KMarte

or

Campbell & Early for Ryan

Duran, Arias & Fitts for KMarte

Then, use the budget to add Alonso and maybe Ref + Matz 

 

I hope the Sox can hold on to Early.  It won’t be long before he is outpitching Ryan.

That can be interpreted two ways…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

I hope the Sox can hold on to Early.  It won’t be long before he is outpitching Ryan.

That can be interpreted two ways…

I like Early a lot, too. We could sub Tolle...

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you project Duran to be #4 in FWAR among 2026 OF'ers?

Also, trading Duran for a pitcher or KMarte is not adding an OF"er. The idea is that Anthony will replace Duran not be a downgrade, but we upgrade 2B from a merry-go-round of circus clowns to one of the best, and one who has real power to boot! (He's about top 15 or 20 in ISO.)

2024-2025 fWAR

KMart 15.3

Duran 13.2

I rarely project any single player to be in the top-4.  But who are going to acquire that is an upgrade to Duran?  And trading an outfielder for an equal player at a different position, isn't upgrading from Duran.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, notin said:

He is certainly a good way.  What else do you propose?

Well, rumour has it, we're allowed to trade prospects, too. I'll have to do some more digging to be sure on this fancy notion. 

Getting a No 2 off a contending team will be difficult for obvious reasons. Getting a No2 off a non contending team makes no sense if the return is Duran. The Twins for example are clearly in sell mode, so they won't want Duran. 

You're being quite the contrarian with some posters recently. On some topics that really don't require it. 

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you project Duran to be #4 in FWAR among 2026 OF'ers?

Also, trading Duran for a pitcher or KMarte is not adding an OF"er. The idea is that Anthony will replace Duran not be a downgrade, but we upgrade 2B from a merry-go-round of circus clowns to one of the best, and one who has real power to boot! (He's about top 15 or 20 in ISO.)

2024-2025 fWAR

KMart 15.3

Duran 13.2

I know he's like really good and this may be an unpopular opinion but I don't really want Marte. 

It would sort of feel like a slap in the face to suck all these years, build up the farm, and then just trade it away for a bunch of guys 32 and up. 

Imagine siging Bregman and/or trading for Marte? between those two and Story they're all going to be 32 and 33 next year and the vast majority, by far, fall off a cliff between 30-35. 

If I'm trading for guys, and I'm using up some of my better assets.....I'm getting back younger cost controlled guys. 

They all can't be elite like Crochet, but that's the type of trade I'm ok with, a guy who's young and in his prime.  Otherwise I'd rather just build a homegrown team like KC or go out and spend the money. 

[Hugh2]

I get that "Anthony" is the upgrade by the definiton of some and I don't disagree with that take but it's just an odd way of framing it.  Like, the guy is already on your roster so how exactly are you "looking for".

Could the Sox possibly move TWO outfielders this offseason and sign Kyle Tucker?

LF Tucker

CF Rafaela

RF Anthony

Not going to speculate further on this comment about who you get back for Duran/Abreu (or maybe it's Duran/Garcia) but packaged up with some prospects you can imagine the possibilities of plugging up 3B and SP2. 

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I rarely project any single player to be in the top-4.  But who are going to acquire that is an upgrade to Duran?  And trading an outfielder for an equal player at a different position, isn't upgrading from Duran.

I think it was meant to be be an upgrade as in the roster would be upgraded overall, rather than a direct replacement for Duran, 

We can't afford one for starters. 

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get that "Anthony" is the upgrade by the definiton of some and I don't disagree with that take but it's just an odd way of framing it.  Like, the guy is already on your roster so how exactly are you "looking for".

Could the Sox possibly move TWO outfielders this offseason and sign Kyle Tucker?

LF Tucker

CF Rafaela

RF Anthony

Not going to speculate further on this comment about who you get back for Duran/Abreu (or maybe it's Duran/Garcia) but packaged up with some prospects you can imagine the possibilities of plugging up 3B and SP2. 

No chance. Tucker kills our other moves. They just mean an upgrade in the overall roster I think.

[Hugh2]

 

Ketel Marte - 2nd

Kyle Tucker  - LF

Roman Anthony - RF

Trevor Story - SS

Masataka Yoshida - DH

Marcel Mayer - 3B

Carlos Narvaez - C

Lowe/Casas - 1B   (forgot about 1B until now, this position is the biggest question mark in my lineup and player too)

Rafaela - CF

 

Note: I know I just Poo Poo'd trading Duran for Marte but the more I think about it the more I'm not 100% against it.  I also think signing Tucker is rather unrealistic.  However, this lineup could really mash and Duran/Abreu should be able to fill in the gaps on the pitching side. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No chance. Tucker kills our other moves. They just mean an upgrade in the overall roster I think.

If you were signing Tucker, you could trade two of your outfielders.  That's a lot of chips to throw down and fill in the holes.

I don't think it's very realistic at all that they sign him.  

If the Sox do something big this offseason, I think it's going to be on the pitching side of the equation. 

I think you're absolutely 100% right though, it's an upgrade in the roster not over Duran specifically. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I know he's like really good and this may be an unpopular opinion but I don't really want Marte. 

It would sort of feel like a slap in the face to suck all these years, build up the farm, and then just trade it away for a bunch of guys 32 and up. 

Imagine siging Bregman and/or trading for Marte? between those two and Story they're all going to be 32 and 33 next year and the vast majority, by far, fall off a cliff between 30-35. 

If I'm trading for guys, and I'm using up some of my better assets.....I'm getting back younger cost controlled guys. 

They all can't be elite like Crochet, but that's the type of trade I'm ok with, a guy who's young and in his prime.  Otherwise I'd rather just build a homegrown team like KC or go out and spend the money. 

Points taken. But can you also appreciate the need for a balance of young and untested talent with veteran regulars hungry for rings while they can still contribute? 

The Red Sox need a solid second baseman and a good righthanded bat. The industry word is that Marte needs a change of scenery. Boston sounds like the perfect fit...