Article: Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Triston Casas

[Nick John]

1B Triston Casas
Age on Opening Day 2026: 26 years old
Service Time: 3 years, 32 days
2023 Salary: $723,500
2024 Salary: $760,000
2025 Salary: $774,000
2026 Salary (Projection): $1,700,000

Background:

If you’ve followed the Red Sox since the early 2020's, you know who Triston Casas is. Taken 26th overall in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft, Casas immediately became the fourth ranked prospect in the system less than a month after being drafted. By July of 2019,, he was the number one ranked prospect in the system and remained there until July of 2022, when he was replaced by Marcelo Mayer. Casas was always viewed as a potential middle-of-the-order bat thanks to his discipline, control and understanding of the strike zone, as well as his power. However, injuries have made it difficult for him to remain on the field since 2021, when he was limited to 86 games. In 2022 ,that number elevated to 103 games between the minor leagues and with Boston. The 2023 campaign saw him buck that trend by playing in 132 games before injuries derailed his 2024 and 2025 seasons once again, playing a combined 92 games across those two seasons.

2025 Season:

This year was viewed as a potential make-or-break season for Casas following an injury-plagued 2024, and possibly his last chance to prove he was the first baseman of the present and future for the franchise. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out all too well. Playing in just 29 games before his season ended on May 2 due to a ruptured left patellar tendon, Casas struggled at the plate. Hitting just .182/.277/.303, Casas saw his usual power seemingly vanish before the injury, as he had just six extra-base hits (three doubles and three home runs), though he was still getting on base thanks in part to his 11 walks. Despite hitting .455/.500/.909 against left-handed pitching, Casas saw himself mostly found himself sitting versus southpaws as Romy González would start at first. In total, Casas had 11 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2025.

2025 Stats: 29 G, 112 PA, .182/.277/.303 .580 OPS, 3 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9.8 BB%, 24.1 K%

Red Sox Depth at First Base:

• Romy González: 40-man roster
• Nathaniel Lowe: 40-man roster
• Nick Sogard: 40-man roster
• Triple-A: Nathan Hickey
• Double-A: Brooks Brannon, Tyler Miller

Summary:

A big issue with the 2025 Red Sox was the lack of first base depth even before Casas went down. That issue only became bigger after his injury, as most of the playing time was split between González and minor league free agent Abraham Toro. Sogard got a few games at first base as well, but he’s more comfortable elsewhere in the infield. In August, the Red Sox picked up Lowe and he performed well during his time in Boston, but there’s no guarantee he will be back in 2026 as he’s projected to make $13.5M in arbitration himself. Currently, the farm system doesn't offer many solutions either, as Hickey was a catcher up until last season and Brannon is also a catcher who is more suited for first base.

Why the Red Sox Should Offer Him a Contract:

Despite injuries and an extremely rough 2025 season, Casas is still young and has a lot of potential offensively. Should he stay healthy, there is still a 30-homer season within his bat that the Red Sox very much could use after ending 2025 without a single hitter reaching that number. It’s also only been two seasons since Casas hit 24 home runs and had an .856 OPS as a 23-year-old rookie. There’s no denying his bat could help carry the offense, but the issue is whether he can stay in the lineup every day at this point of his career. At his best, Casas has looked like the middle-of-the-order bat the team desperately needs right now.

Why the Red Sox Should Not Offer Him a Contract:

The easy answer is his health issues. In every season since 2021, he has missed a good portion of the season, including in 2023 when he spent most of September on the injured list. Some of the injuries he’s had since being in the organization include his ruptured left patellar tendon, a torn rib cartilage, shoulder inflammation, and a sprained ankle that saw him miss nearly two months.

Also, the team has already said they believe it’s too early in the offseason to commit to anyone as their first baseman. Casas’ inability to stay on the field has put the team into a bind for back-to-back seasons now, and it would be wise to look at all their options before going into 2026 with the plan of Casas as their starting first baseman.

Projection:

There are not many outcomes where the team will non-tender Casas; in fact, you could realistically say there is no chance it happens. With the potential in his bat, it makes sense to offer him a contract for around $1.7M, especially if he stays healthy and has a season similar to 2023. He isn’t too far removed from that season, and he will only be 26 years old in 2026, so he’ll be just entering the beginning of his prime. He should have plenty of great seasons in him if he can just stay on the field. Of course, even if they offer him arbitration, that doesn’t mean the team wouldn’t look to trade him like they attempted to in previous offseasons.

Should he miss a lot of time in 2026 due to injuries again, it wouldn’t come as a surprise for the team to non-tender him then, especially if his value is next to nothing.

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What do you think? Is it a foregone conclusion that Casas is back for 2026, or do you think the slugging first baseman could be shipped off to a new team? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

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[moonslav59]

K Campbell should be listed as 1B depth.

[JoeBrady]

There is a -0- chance of him being non-tendered.  A trade is a far more interesting subject.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

The Red Sox should offer Casas $1 Million for 2026 and based on his performance decide on which way to go with him.  He either is the 1B of the future and gets a long-term contract of 5 years or more OR he is the center of the next trade they make after the 2026 season.  It's that simple.

He's missed too much time to evaluate him on the small and non-recent sample size.  Give him a year to prove himself or not and then decide.  

Here are the unfortunate facts about Boston decision making.  Logic isn't their primary criterion for decision making.  Mayer has had less success than Casas and has been consistently hurt like Casas but he will get the benefit of the doubt whereas Casas won't.  It's politics and with Cora having input, it's biased.  I'm still waiting to see if the gambling stuff will finally catch up with Cora, but he seems to be made of Teflon so it's likely he'll be around by the end of 2026 when the decision on Casas should be made.  My guess is Cora will have already contributed to signing Mayer long term despite his weak defense, average hitting and propensity to get injured.  Hopefully, that's not true.

The far bigger off-season situation is Campbell.  He is second to Anthony in skill but was never in the front office's plans until he won Minor League Player of the Year.  They grudgingly promoted him before Anthony and Mayer but never gave him the respect they gave Anthony even when he came out of the gates on fire and Anthony was miserable yet hitting in the 3 hole.  Without a real 3B since Bregman's ego is out of control, the team will surely use Mayer there and we'll see if his skills are closer to Devers as they were when he was in the minors or closer to Bregman's on defense.  That leaves 2B and 1B as options for the very, very talented Campbell.  If Casas hits then Campbell will need to play 2B since the outfield is full and Yoshida deserves to have first crack at DH based on his late season heroics.  

Despite outperforming Mayer on defense in the minors, the struggles Campbell had in a very limited debut at his new position of 2B has grossly tarnished his reputation as a fielder with the Boston fans who don't tend to use facts as much as the popular speech of the leftist media and the front office PR department.  He's been an above average defender his whole life until his 2 months at 2B last season.  Even then, his defense was league average according to traditional measures that reflect impact to the team not speculated estimates of the crazy left who think metrics are valid.  For comparison purposes, nobody wanted to ship Devers back to AAA in 2018 when he sucked at hitting and led the league in errors (24) .926 fielding percentage while hitting .240.  He never got demoted.  FYI Mayer's fielding percentage at SS in the minors was .953 which is 15 points lower than Campbell's fielding percentage of .968 as a rookie. (42 points higher than Devers who didn't get sent down!)

Campbell was so wronged in 2025 my hope is he gets traded despite believing he could help Boston more than everyone other than maybe Anthony because I love when a kid gets a fair chance to compete when he does not arrive in Boston with a silver spoon in his mouth like Mayer.  There is no place in baseball for privilege.  Meritocracy should be the fundamental evaluation criterion.

Mookie was a black player who wasn't loved by the front office until he put up monster numbers and in the end was dismissed as if he did nothing to help the organization win a World Series.  That level of respect has been shown to Campbell.  I hope he's able to do as Mookie, Duran and Rafaela have done and prove he's a premiere player whether Cora or the front office agree and he has a long and outstanding career.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The ambidextrous are the real problem -- they won't just rely on traditional measures or metrics, but insist on using all tools of evaluation.

The ambidextrous consider every angle in circular motions that create holistic holes in the whole panorama that sink boats in the panorama canal before we can identify if they're manned by fishermen or scapegoat farmers.

If only the ambidextrous would just put both hands in their pockets and use their eyes, they'd see what the rest of us are told we're seeing.

[urban cowboy]

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

[harmony]

Does anyone agree with Baseball Trade Values that Triston Casas currently has 0 surplus value?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, harmony said:

Does anyone agree with Baseball Trade Values that Triston Casas currently has 0 surplus value?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1

I'd put him at +0.5, so yes, I kinda agree.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

He's got 3 arbs left. You want to go beyond 3?

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

I really dislike the idea of giving up on Casas or Campbell.  There's a reason that they were highly ranked prospects.  Prospects don't always work out, obviously, but it's too soon to give up on either.  I'd pencil Casas in as our starting first baseman, and maybe even pencil Campbell in as our starting second baseman.  I know that I'm banking a lot on potential.

[urban cowboy]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's got 3 arbs left. You want to go beyond 3?

Good point. I suppose I was making a more general point to hang on to him rather than trade him or sign someone else. Gotta really think through the long-term early signing strategy. How many do you do that for? We have Raffie, Campbell, and Anthony now, I think, and maybe still paying  Rusney Castillo, too, ha. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Good point. I suppose I was making a more general point to hang on to him rather than trade him or sign someone else. Gotta really think through the long-term early signing strategy. How many do you do that for? We have Raffie, Campbell, and Anthony now, I think, and maybe still paying  Rusney Castillo, too, ha. 

I'm with you and others on keeping Casas.

I'm thinking we need one major trade and one major signing, plus one more pretty big addition... minimum.

[notin]

4 hours ago, urban cowboy said:

Casas is worth a bit of a gamble in the sense of trying to lock him in for a few extra years while his value is low. I still believe in him, and when you look at what's out there in regarding other first basemen, it's a sound risk. 

I'm also with @TedYazPapiMookie that we shouldn't give up on Campbell either. If we're patient, we could be set for a long time!

Campbell’s had like 230 PA.  Hopefully no decision was made on him either way yet…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I really dislike the idea of giving up on Casas or Campbell.  There's a reason that they were highly ranked prospects.  Prospects don't always work out, obviously, but it's too soon to give up on either.  I'd pencil Casas in as our starting first baseman, and maybe even pencil Campbell in as our starting second baseman.  I know that I'm banking a lot on potential.

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

Agreed. LF... maybe 1B or DH, but I doubt 2B.

[Hugh2]

Ya’ll are nuts for thinking Casas has trade value right now.  The upside is in keeping him, but I’d have little issue with the team moving on at first base and letting Casas hit his way back there.

of course, that creates a Yoshida issue again

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Ya’ll are nuts for thinking Casas has trade value right now.  The upside is in keeping him, but I’d have little issue with the team moving on at first base and letting Casas hit his way back there.

of course, that creates a Yoshida issue again

I think almost all of us want to keep him, offer him arb and give him a shot. His trade value is so low vs his upside potential, and he may have the most proven HR power of any Sox player on the 40.

What do we need most, this winter?

[Hugh2]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I think almost all of us want to keep him, offer him arb and give him a shot. His trade value is so low vs his upside potential, and he may have the most proven HR power of any Sox player on the 40.

What do we need most, this winter?

Exactly, the separation between his trade value and how good makes him one of the most un-tradable guys on the team.  

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Exactly, the separation between his trade value and how good makes him one of the most un-tradable guys on the team.  

I'm not predicting he regains what was lost. His injury is a tough one to come back from, but if he gets healthy, I have a ton of faith he's the real deal as a batter.

It may take him another year, but Yoshida only has 2 left, so there will be room for him at DH, where he has always belonged.

[Deja Doh]

Like I said last year and will repeat for this coming year, forget about Casas, focus on signing Pete Alonso and first base isn't an issue for 5 years.  We need power.  And we need it now.  Casas is too busy painting his fingernails.

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, harmony said:

Does anyone agree with Baseball Trade Values that Triston Casas currently has 0 surplus value?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1

There's a scenario where he never makes it back to MLB, so sure. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell’s had like 230 PA.  Hopefully no decision was made on him either way yet…

Campbell isn't the first guy to struggle in his first taste of MLB ball. He'll be back when he's ready. 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Like I said last year and will repeat for this coming year, forget about Casas, focus on signing Pete Alonso and first base isn't an issue for 5 years.  We need power.  And we need it now.  Casas is too busy painting his fingernails.

Plenty of time for that while sitting on the bench as a DH.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell isn't the first guy to struggle in his first taste of MLB ball. He'll be back when he's ready. 

Agreed. I feel it's much more likely his struggles were just a temporary setback. It would help if he could find a position and get okay it- other than DH.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I feel it's much more likely his struggles were just a temporary setback. It would help if he could find a position and get okay it- other than DH.

I'm more worried about his glove than his bat.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm more worried about his glove than his bat.

Me, too, and we already have 17 DHs or 3-5 players who probably should be DH only.

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not predicting he regains what was lost. His injury is a tough one to come back from, but if he gets healthy, I have a ton of faith he's the real deal as a batter.

This is exactly my take as well, I can see why some are a little edgy about that because he started off last season in a slump and got hurt before he ever really got it going. 

But if Casas comes back healthy, Story of 25 shows up, and Mayer/Anthony are back healthy I think the offense even without any additions could at the very least get a little better.  They really should. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is exactly my take as well, I can see why some are a little edgy about that because he started off last season in a slump and got hurt before he ever really got it going. 

But if Casas comes back healthy, Story of 25 shows up, and Mayer/Anthony are back healthy I think the offense even without any additions could at the very least get a little better.  They really should. 

Without Devers and Bregman, it's a downgrade from the offense they started with in '25. 

C Narvaez

1B Casas

2B Romy

SS Story

3B Mayer

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

LF Anthony

DH Duran

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell was pretty bad at 2b.  That ship might have sailed.  But even if he is in the OF mix he can find hiscway back to Boston…

Yes, I know he was really bad at 2B.  Being young and athletic, though, I would hope that he could improve defensively.  While I understand the value of versatility and being able to play multiple positions, Campbell is one that I think the Sox need to find a position for and leave him there to master it.  I agree that his position might not be 2B.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This is exactly my take as well, I can see why some are a little edgy about that because he started off last season in a slump and got hurt before he ever really got it going. 

But if Casas comes back healthy, Story of 25 shows up, and Mayer/Anthony are back healthy I think the offense even without any additions could at the very least get a little better.  They really should. 

Casas almost always stars out slowly, and I usually berate posters over using small sample sizes, but I do think Casas was coming out of his funk in early '25 before the injury:

Last 8 games: .261 2 HRs 7 RBI (.936 OPS thanks to 5 BB and a .414 OBP)

The Bobby Dee story scares the beJesus out of me, but I don't think Casas is him. Bobby Dee never carried over his decent OBP from the minors, like Tristan did.

I know Casas is quirky and a lumbering load of lard who couldn't field better than anyone's grandma, but the guy is a hitter.