A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So top quality young pitchers doesn’t include prospects.  

I assume not.  Too many keep insisting everyone will ask for Tolle/Early/Bennett.  Obvious dealbreakers to me.
 

I also might have names on my expendables list others prefer to keep.  Most notable one is Mayer, whom Breslow has had on his Keep List before..

[notin]

29 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I mean you can’t sell because you don’t think you can beat the dodgers…. 29 teams would be selling. 
 

We are in WC spot. Jake Bennett is a revelation, bullpen has been nails. Getting on base more, when we get guys on base, we are taking bags, making contact moving runners over. IMO we still need more big fly in the lineup if we are going to compete in October but the pitching is great. Chad Tracy is incredible….. 

My fear is Breslow will talk himself out of any big move, thinking he will get ‘25 Story back, and eventually Roman. If we do get a big bat….. 🙏 could be special. 
 

My fear is no reasonable deal will materialize and he’ll look to get ripped off on a lesser deal, like last year.  A year ago, fans were made at Breslow for not getting Joe Ryan, despite that it would have cost the Sox Tolle and one of their starting outfielders, plus.

Obviously as far as this season is going, right move. But getting Dustin May from the Dodgers - a team NOT SELLING - was just stupid.  And Breslow overpaid (with Tibbs plus) for a player that, if he was useful, the Dodgers would have kept.  And THAT is the deal I don’t want to see repeated…

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I assume not.  Too many keep insisting everyone will ask for Tolle/Early/Bennett.  Obvious dealbreakers to me.
 

I also might have names on my expendables list others prefer to keep.  Most notable one is Mayer, whom Breslow has had on his Keep List before..

Well there trade value is much higher, you’d get a premium bat with multiple years of control for one of those guys, but if you want to trade for a premium bat with prospects you’re likely trading two from Eyanson/Witherspoon/Arias plus.  
 

you trade from your strengths to fill in your weaknesses.  I’m not for trading away any of those guys but if you could tell me we could have the hitting equivalent of one of them coming back then I’d certainly consider it. 
 

I think of it like this, on this team would you trade a 4 WAR pitcher for a 4 war hitter? 

I don’t think that’s roster malpractice, I think that’s balancing the team out to be more competitive 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well there trade value is much higher, you’d get a premium bat with multiple years of control for one of those guys, but if you want to trade for a premium bat with prospects you’re likely trading two from Eyanson/Witherspoon/Arias plus.  
 

you trade from your strengths to fill in your weaknesses.  I’m not for trading away any of those guys but if you could tell me we could have the hitting equivalent of one of them coming back then I’d certainly consider it. 
 

I think of it like this, on this team would you trade a 4 WAR pitcher for a 4 war hitter? 

I don’t think that’s roster malpractice, I think that’s balancing the team out to be more competitive 

Why multiple years of control?  It’s nice, but it’s costly.  And bring a 4 WAR pitcher or hitter doesn’t always translate year to year.  If it did, we wouldn’t need the hitter because Duran would fill the role. 
 

This team is winning now.  Yes they need a hitter.  But I wouldn’t go overboard.  My current favorite target is Taylor Ward, who, with two months of control left, figures to cost either 1 or 2 from John Holobetz, Yordanny Monegro, and/or Angel Bastardo.  Something like that.  I can’t speak for Baltimore.  If I want/need a long term solution, what can I get for Mayer?

Im ok using Cheng, Seigler, Romy, Story, and IKF in the middle infield.  Mayer (if not dealt) should go back to Worcester.  
 

Id add a relief arm, too, and am ok with rental pitchers for rental prices.  Bring back John Schreiber.

The Sox have six SPs right now even with Early down and the much maligned Patrick Sandoval has stepped in as an early trade acquisition (let’s hope he doesn’t suck).  I think the Sox might have to rely on some innings from Blake Wehunt or Holobetz (if either/both are still here) or some other farmhand just to keep Tolle and Bennett from falling apart…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, cp176 said:

Giving up any of their top quality young pitchers in my mind could be likened to a criminal offense.   

I don't disagree, but then fans also get upset when our deadline are so meh.

We don't have any everyday players with promise we can afford to trade. To me, it's going to be a repeat of the Paulino/Coffey & Lugo/Zeferjahn type trades for moderate to minor values.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

I also might have names on my expendables list others prefer to keep.  Most notable one is Mayer, whom Breslow has had on his Keep List before..

When you see the playing time Cheng, Monasterio and Siegler are getting, it's clear that middle infield and MI depth are a high need areas and will be in 2027 as well, as IKF is a FA.

I can see why they might not want to part with Mayer, just yet. 

The problem is, who had higher value and can be parted with? 

It's young arms, and then we risk trading away the next Harrison, Drohan or Priester.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

My fear is no reasonable deal will materialize and he’ll look to get ripped off on a lesser deal, like last year.  A year ago, fans were made at Breslow for not getting Joe Ryan, despite that it would have cost the Sox Tolle and one of their starting outfielders, plus.

Obviously as far as this season is going, right move. But getting Dustin May from the Dodgers - a team NOT SELLING - was just stupid.  And Breslow overpaid (with Tibbs plus) for a player that, if he was useful, the Dodgers would have kept.  And THAT is the deal I don’t want to see repeated…

Agreed, but even more shocking to me was what DMay got as a FA, so you can see how even pitchers like him have value to some GMs. (Maybe just one GM in DM's case.)

$12M with a $20M mutual option ($500K buyout)

[Hugh2]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Why multiple years of control?  It’s nice, but it’s costly.  And bring a 4 WAR pitcher or hitter doesn’t always translate year to year.  If it did, we wouldn’t need the hitter because Duran would fill the role. 
 

This team is winning now.  Yes they need a hitter.  But I wouldn’t go overboard.  My current favorite target is Taylor Ward, who, with two months of control left, figures to cost either 1 or 2 from John Holobetz, Yordanny Monegro, and/or Angel Bastardo.  Something like that.  I can’t speak for Baltimore.  If I want/need a long term solution, what can I get for Mayer?

Im ok using Cheng, Seigler, Romy, Story, and IKF in the middle infield.  Mayer (if not dealt) should go back to Worcester.  
 

Id add a relief arm, too, and am ok with rental pitchers for rental prices.  Bring back John Schreiber.

The Sox have six SPs right now even with Early down and the much maligned Patrick Sandoval has stepped in as an early trade acquisition (let’s hope he doesn’t suck).  I think the Sox might have to rely on some innings from Blake Wehunt or Holobetz (if either/both are still here) or some other farmhand just to keep Tolle and Bennett from falling apart…

If you’re trading a MLB pitcher with multiple years of control you’re getting back a hitter with multiple years of control.  That was the frame of comment.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

 I think the Sox might have to rely on some innings from Blake Wehunt or Holobetz (if either/both are still here) or some other farmhand just to keep Tolle and Bennett from falling apart…

We still have Gamboa, Samaniego & Uberstine on the 40 and ready.

Suarez should return soon, so that bumps someone from the rotation or pen. (Rivera?)

Then, we might see a return from the IL by Early, Kelly and LaSorsa.

Crochet, Crawford, Oviedo & Houck seem like long shots.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If you’re trading a MLB pitcher with multiple years of control you’re getting back a hitter with multiple years of control.  That was the frame of comment.

What MLB pitcher with enough value can we trade?

Early?

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If you’re trading a MLB pitcher with multiple years of control you’re getting back a hitter with multiple years of control.  That was the frame of comment.

I prefer avoid dealing the young star pitching and use the multiple second tier prospect approach to land a rental...

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, how else do you bring hitting in at the deadline?

You can get modest upgrades for modest prices.  Ward shouldn't cost much, and would be a solid upgrade over Duran, currently.  And has been pounding LH pitching the past few years.  Arraez would be a very good upgrade at 2B.  He'll cost more, but not a premium prospect.  Steer should be good, multi-position ability, and not cost a premium prospect.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, how else do you bring hitting in at the deadline?

Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce.  World Series MVP.  Done. 😉

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think the inactivity helps, considering activity usually injures him…

I know you're not 100% serious, but just for a moment picture a rust-caked Story striding to the plate in mid-August and tell me you're not shuddering at the human carnage you're about to behold.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I assume not.  Too many keep insisting everyone will ask for Tolle/Early/Bennett.  Obvious dealbreakers to me.

Most TDL trades don't require top prospects.  I think a lot of folks look at the top-100 list, but it is kind of arbitrary.  Two top-125 guys are probably a good bit more valuable than the #100 prospect.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You can get modest upgrades for modest prices.  Ward shouldn't cost much, and would be a solid upgrade over Duran, currently.  And has been pounding LH pitching the past few years.  Arraez would be a very good upgrade at 2B.  He'll cost more, but not a premium prospect.  Steer should be good, multi-position ability, and not cost a premium prospect.

I know it's not what many want to hear, but I seriously doubt Brez will trade top prospects. He may even deem Witherspoon and Phillips as too much to give up.

Brace yourself for more meh trades and some serious backlash from many Sox fans.

I'm not even sure we will offer a big enough package to land Ward or Steer. I'm pretty sure Arraez, BLowe and Jeffers will cost too much for Brez to pull a deal.

These are the names we may see offered, and you get what you pay for. Don't expect the next Kyle Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez trade. 

13 Holobetz

14 Cespedes

16 Romero

17 Wehunt

19 Uberstine

20 Paez, 21 Mullins, 24  Bastardo, 26 Monegro

25 Winnay, 31 Castro, 34 Jo Garcia, 36 Brannon, 37 Bleis, 43 YRod

Maybe, for the right guy, we'd part with...

5 Gonzales, 6 Azocar, 8 Godbout

9 Valera or 12 Phillips

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And Breslow overpaid (with Tibbs plus)

It should be noted that SF had already given up on him, and that he was one of the worst players in AA when we traded him.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce.  World Series MVP.  Done. 😉

How many Sox fans were thrilled the day we added Pearce?

Nate, yes.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know you're not 100% serious, but just for a moment picture a rust-caked Story striding to the plate in mid-August and tell me you're not shuddering at the human carnage you're about to behold.

I saw a much younger (but also less athletic) Kyle Schwarber tear up his knee in an outfield collision in the second game of the regular season, and not swing a bat again until he posted a .971 OPS in the World Series.  So, yes, I think Story can come back from a sports hernia and at least play at a serviceable level, and I have confidence in the scrap heap players the Sox are using today to replace him if he falters…

[Duran Is The Man]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but even more shocking to me was what DMay got as a FA, so you can see how even pitchers like him have value to some GMs. (Maybe just one GM in DM's case.)

$12M with a $20M mutual option ($500K buyout)

yeah....the same idiot GM that gave Masa $18M a year.

[Duran Is The Man]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What MLB pitcher with enough value can we trade?

Early?

you're on BTV....what would it take to get James WOod? Mayer & Anthony get it done? if so, i'm all in.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It should be noted that SF had already given up on him, and that he was one of the worst players in AA when we traded him.

The Giants did get Devers, a big deal since for some reason free agents avoid that team like they’re a bunch of lepers.  And he was a first round pick in 2024 with only 30 games at AA under his belt.  
 

Too much for a pitcher being dumped by a team that was ACTIVELY ACQUIRING PITCHING.

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's young arms, and then we risk trading away the next Harrison, Drohan or Priester.

This is what I hate about the 20/20 trade reviews.  No team in baseball is ever going to get a player unless they give up a player that might make the pros.  Last year, Tibbs projected to 5 HRs and 200 Ks in AA.  We have to give up guys like that.  It doesn't matter if they do well later.  If not, we might as well not pick up the phone.

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

It should be noted that SF had already given up on him, and that he was one of the worst players in AA when we traded him.

SF also had "given up" on Harrison and PIT on Priester.

Note: we exposed Drohan to Rule 5, lost him, got him back, then traded him. It's weird how Harrison, Priester & Drohan all changed teams before thriving with their most recent teams.

[dannycater]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

16-2 in the last 18 games.

Nobody saw this coming, despite some clues we were not as bad as our previous record indicated.

I'm not sure how long we can keep this up. I'm pretty sure we will have a rough patch or two, before the season ends, but I don't see many of the WC contenders looking like they are better.

The Yanks and Rays look beatable, too.

It's those 3-4 NL teams that look so far away. Maybe I should start believing in the crapshoot playoff idea.

Winning is contagious, but you have to have pitching and the pitching is beyond remarkable. It's completely taken the pressure off the offense, and now the offense is starting to awake. The power of Abreu and Contreras sprinkled in with several guys who are now also hitting dingers, doubles. I'm completely blown away by this turnaround. It was unexpected and with guys no one heard of like Seigler, Cheng, and others turning things around like Durbin, even Duran in some spots. Sky is the limit at this point, playing with house money and certainly Breslow must be in complete glee over all of his moves working.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you're on BTV....what would it take to get James WOod? Mayer & Anthony get it done? if so, i'm all in.

Some notable values:

69 Arias

32 Early

30 Mayer

24 Azocar & 22 Gonzales

15 Narvaez

13 Valera & Anthony

12 Witherspoon

9 Godbout & 8 Phillips

7 Duran & 5 Whitlock

5 Cespedes & 4 Rivera

4 Chapman & 3 Wong

3 Holobetz

_________________

120 Wood

80 Soto

66 Yordan

63 Neto

47 Joe Ryan

44 Langeliers & Soderstrom

36 Pena

34 KMarte & B Buxton

31 Keaschall

24 M Shaw

21 Paredes

20 F Alvarez

18 Schmidt

16 Horwitz

12 Reynolds

8 Peralta

7 Arraez & Jeffers

4 B Lowe & Steer

-2 G Torres

-25 Alonso

-30 Lindor

-41 Adames

 

 

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brace yourself for more meh trades and some serious backlash from many Sox fans.

That's what the TDL is usually comprised of.  The biggest position trade last year was Naylor.  Most trades look like O'Hearn or Bader, with teams trying to pick up one additional win at a very modest cost.  And I don't think a single big name position player was in 2024.

And the backlash from fans expecting Soto, Schwarber and Judge can safely be ignored.

[dannycater]

Great for die-hard Sox fans to see this bout of success. It's been a while since the town is rocking and winning has been hard to come by with this franchise last several years. 

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

I think Story can come back from a sports hernia and at least play at a serviceable level,

You can't always tell with injuries, but Story had a .741 last year, and a 4.1 bWAR.  He's 33, but even 33 year old players generally do not lose all their ability in one year.

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

That's what the TDL is usually comprised of.  The biggest position trade last year was Naylor.  Most trades look like O'Hearn or Bader, with teams trying to pick up one additional win at a very modest cost.  And I don't think a single big name position player was in 2024.

And the backlash from fans expecting Soto, Schwarber and Judge can safely be ignored.

There were some pretty big deadline and near deadline deals, last year:

Correa

Mason Miller

Helsey & Beiber were about as big as Naylor. 

With less know sellers, maybe this deadline is a real dud for everyone.

A Skubal trade would be huge.

Lindor or KMarte would be significant.