A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Since June 19th, the Sox are 11th in runs scored. That's not great, but it's a huge improvement over 28th to 29th. With pitching and defense like we've seen almost all year, maybe 11th is enough... maybe not.

We have been 13th in OBP and 15th in SLG, so I'm not talking great offense, but maybe mid tier is enough.

Since June 23rd:

10th in OBP & SLG

10th in runs

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fantasy Island.🤓

Fantasy?

So one bat in April would be more valuable than one less bat going down if those guys were performing, even if that one guy was also on the team in April?

Does 2+2 not always equal 4????

What is the fantasy there???

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

And that's always the problem.  I'd say roughly 20% of the teams know if they are contenders or out of it.  If I were the RS, I'd start adding on the cheap.  Maybe another RP who could be flipped at the deadline, if necessary.  Or maybe a RH slugging DH with no other skills.

Well the other thing is that the big trades typically all happen in the week, and more so the day off the deadline.  I might not be calling them buyers yet and I'm hopeful that they are but they don't even need to be yet.  It's 7:30 and the store opens up at 8:00

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well the other thing is that the big trades typically all happen in the week, and more so the day off the deadline.  I might not be calling them buyers yet and I'm hopeful that they are but they don't even need to be yet.  It's 7:30 and the store opens up at 8:00

Maybe 6:30.

The deadline is August 3rd, this year, and we have 21 games to play by then.

We play many of the teams ahead of us, and they play each other often enough, that if we win at a 60% rate (13-8,) we will probably be in the 2nd or 3rd WC slot by then.

I know some think, so what, but to me, unlike other recent seasons, every AL team is very beatable. Maybe the Rays don't look like that, now, but I think they hit a skid, at some point. They don't look like a WS team to me, either.

The Rays have 9 batters over 170 PAs (actually over 210, too.) They have two guys over .900! That's awesome. They have Aranda ar .832, but then there is a massive drop-off: The next 6 are all between .620 and .676, with 5 between .620 and ,639! Imagine the Sox having 5 guys in the line-up under .640. We'd all be saying "non contender!" Hell, we're saying it now with better than that.

Like us, they have a nice rotation, but their 5th starter Matz (6.28) is on the IL and Seymour is at 4.11.

2.61 Nick Martinez (pitched over 143 IP only once in career)

2.78 Rasmussen (has never gone over 150 IP)

2.83 McClanahan (never pitched over 167 IP and missed last year with an injury.)

rivals our top 3.

Griffin Jax is at 3.60. (He's never pitched more than 81 IP)

Why are we viewing the Rays so highly going into the last 75 games of the season?

Baker & Kelly have done very well in the pen, but are they household names as high leverage guys? Their pen has a 4.30 ERA and .721 OPS Against. Ours is 3.35 and .664, and we call our pen a "weak area Brez neglected."

The AL is anybody's for the taking. Even the Tigers could win it, and they are behind us!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

ASCIH

Does anyone want to explain this?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Story Land has been opened, and closed for repairs, and maintenance pretty much since he’s been here, so it’s been iffy when he’d be open, and when he’d be closed.

Anticipating that he might get injured is legit, but that's what IKF is there for.

Anticipating that he'd have a .547 is not legit.

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's 7:30 and the store opens up at 8:00

I have my candy money in my hand and demand you open the door.

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Fantasy?

So one bat in April would be more valuable than one less bat going down if those guys were performing, even if that one guy was also on the team in April?

Does 2+2 not always equal 4????

What is the fantasy there???

Huh? None of it happened.🤭

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? None of it happened.🤭

But what if Duran hit like '24, Masa hit like Japan, Story hit like he was in Coors, Mayer actually hit like he never has, Anthony hit like August '25, Durbin went to better hitting instructors in ST, Abreu actually had a career year and Rafaela won the triple crown? WHAT IF? 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

But what if Duran hit like '24, Masa hit like Japan, Story hit like he was in Coors, Mayer actually hit like he never has, Anthony hit like August '25, Durbin went to better hitting instructors in ST, Abreu actually had a career year and Rafaela won the triple crown? WHAT IF? 

we would have....the 11th ranked offense....oh what could have been.!! You see, you cant fault breslow. Because sure many respected analysts looked at us and said bottom 10 offense, not a real threat to go anywhere.....But if you got your hand on a monkey paw from the simpsons and wished for duran to hit like 24 and masa to hit like japan and story to hit like coors and mayer to hit like he never has .... homer is still going to burn the last one on a dry turkey sandwich .....then we dould have had a .....dun dun dun......average offense!! Queue the duckboats.

What we would need is 2 monkey paws.

[drewski6]

can you use one finger of a monkey paw to wish for a second monkey paw and go from 5 wishes to 9? See , at least in aladdin , robin williams genie clears up some of this , "no wishing for more wishes"...i dont know if the same rules apply to a monkey paw, but i would think the magic is different.

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? None of it happened.🤭

No it didn’t.  I asked a hypothetical question, or perhaps we can call it rhetorical.  I suppose we can say it did have my desired effect.

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran isn't an All Star. They should have traded that headcase after '24. 

Roman isn't healthy and has been mismanaged by the medical staff.

Marcelo wasn't ready last season and still isn't ready now. He should have been left in AAA last year.

Story healthy? Are the Sox trying to win the lottery two years in a row? He's also not a good enough bat to make a difference. 

Hindsight is 20/20

but how many people would have guess there was a good chance one of those things would happen pre season?

I mean if your options were 

a. At least one of those happen

b. None of those things will happen

you had to bet, where do you think most people would place their bets not knowing what we know now but living in the world of March 2026????

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No it didn’t.  I asked a hypothetical question, or perhaps we can call it rhetorical.  I suppose we can say it did have my desired effect.

I dont mind contextualizing, but in Breslows case they feel more like excuses.  Hes in yr 3, the budget went up and the team went south.  He himself knew the offense wasnt good enough.  At the beginning of the offense he said it would be a huge focus then later in the offseason he declared proudly "we're a pitching and defense first" team.  And mostly, it hasnt worked out.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Hindsight is 20/20

but how many people would have guess there was a good chance at least one of those things would happen pre season?

I'm just going to say it's NOT surprising that Story is hurt, Mayer struggled and Duran regressed even further. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I dont mind contextualizing, but in Breslows case they feel more like excuses.  Hes in yr 3, the budget went up and the team went south.  He himself knew the offense wasnt good enough.  At the beginning of the offense he said it would be a huge focus then later in the offseason he declared proudly "we're a pitching and defense first" team.  And mostly, it hasnt worked out.

They only started winning when they started hitting. 🤔

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Hindsight is 20/20

but how many people would have guess there was a good chance one of those things would happen pre season?

I mean if your options were 

a. At least one of those happen

b. None of those things will happen

you had to bet, where do you think most people would place their bets not knowing what we know now but living in the world of March 2026????

you can always play the game of what went against me that i couldnt control....but theres usually the flip side of things that did work out better than anticipated as well....and most of these things were at least in the universe of forseeable.  Relying on Mayer and story as your middle infield was always dicey.  One has never hit and the other has spend 4 of the last 5 years hurt.

[Hugh2]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I dont mind contextualizing, but in Breslows case they feel more like excuses.  Hes in yr 3, the budget went up and the team went south.  He himself knew the offense wasnt good enough.  At the beginning of the offense he said it would be a huge focus then later in the offseason he declared proudly "we're a pitching and defense first" team.  And mostly, it hasnt worked out.

I know and again I don’t disagree with any of the criticisms of Breslow.  
 

but my thought experiment was if any of those things happened that I layed out it would be equivalent to having one more bat acquired.  
 

The point I was trying to make with my thought experiment (and I apologize for trying to make people think) is that if that is true (which it is) then the Sox should be only ONE bat away from seriously contending now.

if you believe that, and they continue to play well….then they should be buyers at the deadline.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just going to say it's NOT surprising that Story is hurt, Mayer struggled and Duran regressed even further. 

Ok but there would be a difference between betting one of those things happen vs all 3.  The probability changes.  Then throw in Anthony into the equation as well

[Hugh2]

…..and they should be buying a bat.

 

second priority is bullpen

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

you can always play the game of what went against me that i couldnt control....but theres usually the flip side of things that did work out better than anticipated as well....and most of these things were at least in the universe of forseeable.  Relying on Mayer and story as your middle infield was always dicey.  One has never hit and the other has spend 4 of the last 5 years hurt.

I do agree that Mayer could have gone back to AAA.  It’s not like he got promoted for dominating there (although he wasn’t exactly a bust either).

But if the Sox were to fill that middle infield spot, it s any going to be with a Schwarber or Alonso.  In fact, pribably not a free agent at all…

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I know and again I don’t disagree with any of the criticisms of Breslow.  
 

but my thought experiment was if any of those things happened that I layed out it would be equivalent to having one more bat acquired.  
 

The point I was trying to make with my thought experiment (and I apologize for trying to make people think) is that if that is true (which it is) then the Sox should be only ONE bat away from seriously contending now.

if you believe that, and they continue to play well….then they should be buyers at the deadline.

what i have bolded is condescending, but we'll overlook that.

the truth is i thought our offense stunk all along.  I never thought we were one big bat away.  I dont think it works like that.  I think we are 5 bats away.  Keep: Cedeanne, Abreu, Contreras.....dont look for offense at C and everyone else doesnt hit well enough.....For next year you give anthony another shot....and you get 4 bats.  And I dont mind like matt shaw, a 5'10 good defensive 3b who can hit average.  I mean offense first players.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

what i have bolded is condescending, but we'll overlook that.

the truth is i thought our offense stunk all along.  I never thought we were one big bat away.  I dont think it works like that.  I think we are 5 bats away.  Keep: Cedeanne, Abreu, Contreras.....dont look for offense at C and everyone else doesnt hit well enough.....For next year you give anthony another shot....and you get 4 bats.  And I dont mind like matt shaw, a 5'10 good defensive 3b who can hit average.  I mean offense first players.

Well if we are truly 5 bats away then we should 100% be in sell mode.  
 

fortunately we have a few more weeks to see

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

…..and they should be buying a bat.

 

second priority is bullpen

i dont think they should be buying anything, but i understand that im jaded because of like 3 of the last 5 years we fell apart like right after the deadline, and i was thinking wow, if you are going to fall apart, fall apart earlier, cuz then you can get something for your end of year free agents.

My concern is this is yet another year where we win just enough to not take advantage of a deadline sellers market and then fizzle right after the deadline.  Cuz its happened a few times in recent memory.

[drewski6]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Well if we are truly 5 bats away then we should 100% be in sell mode.  
 

fortunately we have a few more weeks to see

my hunch is that in a few weeks , we'll be in a similar place.  Those of us who lean optimist and are happy with just a competitive team will want to buy. And those of us who think the goal is a championship and runner up is jsut the best loser will lean sell.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

…..and they should be buying a bat.

 

second priority is bullpen

This offseason? Sure.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

But what if Duran hit like '24, Masa hit like Japan, Story hit like he was in Coors, Mayer actually hit like he never has, Anthony hit like August '25, Durbin went to better hitting instructors in ST, Abreu actually had a career year and Rafaela won the triple crown? WHAT IF? 

And I’ll say again. Fantasy Island.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And I’ll say again. Fantasy Island.

The funny thing is I never said all of those things would happen.  If I was a betting man I'd bet a very large sum of money all of those things would not happen.  But there's a very stark difference between saying all those things will happen vs. if just one of those things happen. 

Also, the point I was trying to make, over and over again was if hypothetically one of those things happened it would be equivalent to getting one more bat this past offseason. 

I was trying to lay down the framework for turning the Sox into buyers at this deadline, contigent upong continuing to play well, and that we should be looking to add a bat. 

Calling something a fantasy that was never intended to be realistic in the first place is just a mute point. 

[moonslav59]

I can see the reasoning for buying, but it also makes a lot of sense to sell now and buy heavily, this coming winter.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The funny thing is I never said all of those things would happen.  If I was a betting man I'd bet a very large sum of money all of those things would not happen.  But there's a very stark difference between saying all those things will happen vs. if just one of those things happen. 

Also, the point I was trying to make, over and over again was if hypothetically one of those things happened it would be equivalent to getting one more bat this past offseason. 

I was trying to lay down the framework for turning the Sox into buyers at this deadline, contigent upong continuing to play well, and that we should be looking to add a bat. 

Calling something a fantasy that was never intended to be realistic in the first place is just a moot point. 

To start I was responding on MVP’s post this time. I get your point hypothetically, but you couldn’t have counted on the Con Man having a career year so far either. Remember the Con Man was supposed to be an addition to Bregman, which thankfully Brez botched, but when that happened another bat was still needed. Yes if Story, and Duran produced along with little pinky Anthony most likely the W-L would be better, and even better than that if another big bat had been added.