A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"A crutch" - too funny.

I just cited what I googled. There was a lot of talk about AZ wanting Mayer not Duran. I'm not sure why Section 10 talk trumps all others and is your "crutch."

Here is a non AI google I found:

 

Intel from The Boston Globe's Alex Speier suggests that the Arizona Diamondbacks were trying to pry Marcelo Mayer away from the Boston Red Sox, along with either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wasn't having it.

According to Speier, Mayer and Tolle/Early emerged as demands from Arizona during Ketel Marte trade negotiations. Breslow was reportedly willing to give the D-Backs a worthy return of stud prospect Franklin Arias and one of either Tolle or Early. When Arizona ratcheted up their ask by involving Mayer, Breslow reportedly lost interest.

BTW, Carrabis said this...

" I get that it was talked about during the winter, but in June?"

Speier's connections are within the Sox org. Carrabis was getting info from within the DBags org. Which would be more likely to know what the DBags wanted in a trade? 

You're trying to prove me wrong, but I'm just stating the info I heard. You just don't like said info. 

🪰

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony had only played in half of one MLB season. Why would Breslow assume he'd be injured in the next season if he had no previous injuries in MiLB? 

You can make the case for Story, but not Anthony. 

My case on Anthony is that you should not have expected him to be a superstar, not that you shouldnt have expected him to fill a role.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My case on Anthony is that you should not have expected him to be a superstar, not that you shouldnt have expected him to fill a role.

Whether or not we did is one thing, but did Breslow?

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Whether or not we did is one thing, but did Breslow?

I assume not.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My case on Anthony is that you should not have expected him to be a superstar, not that you shouldnt have expected him to fill a role.

That's a different argument altogether. I agree with it though.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Whether or not we did is one thing, but did Breslow?

If they didn't think he'd turn into a superstar, why give him the extension? Why bat him 1st right from the jump? They basically gave him the keys to the franchise. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they didn't think he'd turn into a superstar, why give him the extension? Why bat him 1st right from the jump? They basically gave him the keys to the franchise. 

well this has me rethinking my initial reply to NOtins question in whihc i responded "i assume not"

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If they didn't think he'd turn into a superstar, why give him the extension? Why bat him 1st right from the jump? They basically gave him the keys to the franchise. 

Bingo again! Gave him the keys to be the face of the franchise.

[moonslav59]

Duran was pretty good, last year, and GMs don't always look at just this year's numbers, but here is one way to look at his career on offense:

.729 first 697 PAs (2021-2024)

.834 middle 735 PAs (2024)

.726 last 1018 PAs (2025-2026)

Fun with numbers could break it down like this:

.622 first 335 PAs

.810 middle 1793 PAs (the vast majority of his career PAs)

.624 las 322 PAs

Basically, he's bookended about .623 in 650 PAs (1 season total)  around a decent .810 over 1800 PAs (3 seasons)

What kind of value do you give to this soon-to-be 30 year old? He still is a threat on the basepaths, but often blunders. He's been up and down on defense over his full career, but is probably not viewed as a liability in LF.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bingo again! Gave him the keys to be the face of the franchise.

They weren't running with "The Big Three" for no reason. They didn't turtle for a few years and wait for these guys to show up for no reason. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They weren't running with "The Big Three" for no reason. They didn't turtle for a few years and wait for these guys to show up for no reason. 

Being counted on was only outdone by the promoting, and remember the famous words by Bloom that things were going to be AWESOME. OOPS.🤫

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My case on Anthony is that you should not have expected him to be a superstar, not that you shouldnt have expected him to fill a role.

They probably did not expect a superstar by 2026, but they probably figured a .350 OBP was good enough to bat first and help the team.

I'm not sure anyone expected Mayer to be a superstar in the last couple years. His health concerns have been a major talking point for a long time.

KC's meteoric rise to MiLB Player of the Year did get a lot of people thinking the chances he could be a star or superstar was high, but again, I'm not sure anybody felt he would become one instantly, at least with a high degree or certainty.

I think Sox management and many fans felt 2-3 would be helpful in 2026 and maybe more than just helpful going forward. Nobody ever claimed all 3 would be studs- ever- let alone this early in their careers.

The team hedged against Anthony by keeping 4 OF'ers and Yoshida/Romy as DHs.

The team hedged against Mayer (and his health) by signing IKF at $6M and trading 1 infielder (DHam) for 3 infielders (Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler)

The team did NOT count on KC for 2026, at all. No way they felt the BIG THREE was going to all be studs or even close in 2026. Yes, a year and a half ago hopes were high and very high for many fans and Sox management, but they did have back-up plans for all of them.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Being counted on was only outdone by the promoting, and remember the famous words by Bloom that things were going to be AWESOME. OOPS.🤫

He was right. He left he Sox and now is in the WC and about 9 games ahead of where the Sox are with a payroll that is half the cost!  

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

They probably did not expect a superstar by 2026, but they probably figured a .350 OBP was good enough to bat first and help the team.

I'm not sure anyone expected Mayer to be a superstar in the last couple years. His health concerns have been a major talking point for a long time.

KC's meteoric rise to MiLB Player of the Year did get a lot of people thinking the chances he could be a star or superstar was high, but again, I'm not sure anybody felt he would become one instantly, at least with a high degree or certainty.

I think Sox management and many fans felt 2-3 would be helpful in 2026 and maybe more than just helpful going forward. Nobody ever claimed all 3 would be studs- ever- let alone this early in their careers.

The team hedged against Anthony by keeping 4 OF'ers and Yoshida/Romy as DHs.

The team hedged against Mayer (and his health) by signing IKF at $6M and trading 1 infielder (DHam) for 3 infielders (Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler)

The team did NOT count on KC for 2026, at all. No way they felt the BIG THREE was going to all be studs or even close in 2026. Yes, a year and a half ago hopes were high and very high for many fans and Sox management, but they did have back-up plans for all of them.

There was NO backup plan for Anthony being little Anthony this year, or getting hurt doing a pinky swear with Mayer.🙈

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was right. He left he Sox and now is in the WC and about 9 games ahead of where the Sox are with a payroll that is half the cost!  

LOL!

BTW, Ben's team is 41-40, now. (-2.5 from WC)

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There was NO backup plan for Anthony being little Anthony this year, or getting hurt doing a pinky swear with Mayer.🙈

The backup plan was Duran LF and Masa DH. The backup plan also failed. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

LOL!

BTW, Ben's team is 41-40, now. (-2.5 from WC)

 

I don't stan Ben. Bloom was actually able to build a farm. Ben was the one hit wonder with 2013. Everything else under Ben was really bad. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

The backup plan was Duran LF and Masa DH. The backup plan also failed. 

Indeed, but it was a plan.

80% of us were screaming for a Duran trade and or Yoshida dump. We kept both.

There was not 100% confidence in Anthony, Rafaela & Abreu staying healthy and doing very well.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I don't stan Ben. Bloom was actually able to build a farm. Ben was the one hit wonder with 2013. Everything else under Ben was really bad. 

DD did use Ben's overvalued farm very well.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The backup plan was Duran LF and Masa DH. The backup plan also failed. 

Do you really think it was really a backup plan, or just bad maneuvering by Brez, and bad roster construction.?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, but it was a plan.

80% of us were screaming for a Duran trade and or Yoshida dump. We kept both.

There was not 100% confidence in Anthony, Rafaela & Abreu staying healthy and doing very well.

Maybe not 100% confidence, but 100% counting on.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Do you really think it was really a backup plan, or just bad maneuvering by Brez, and bad roster construction.?

I think they wanted to trade Duran, but didn't find the right value. They believed holding onto all these "assets" as injury insurance was a better plan than dealing them for lesser value. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they wanted to trade Duran, but didn't find the right value. They believed holding onto all these "assets" as injury insurance was a better plan than dealing them for lesser value. 

Agreed. It wasn't all about having a back-up plan.

They certainly we not counting on KC at all for 2026.

I think they expected Mayer to win the FT role, but surely planned on what they felt were capable back-ups: Romy, IKF, Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard, Eaton & Cheng.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. It wasn't all about having a back-up plan.

They certainly we not counting on KC at all for 2026.

I think they expected Mayer to win the FT role, but surely planned on what they felt were capable back-ups: Romy, IKF, Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard, Eaton & Cheng.

Romy was injured when he reported in February and was shutdown. At that point, they were clearly comfortable just going with Monasterio/IKF/et al. Seems like a bit of a mistake knowing the uncertainty with Mayer AND Story.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they wanted to trade Duran, but didn't find the right value. They believed holding onto all these "assets" as injury insurance was a better plan than dealing them for lesser value. 

I agree on Duran, but there was just no takers for Masa, which made the problem isn’t worse.

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. It wasn't all about having a back-up plan.

They certainly we not counting on KC at all for 2026.

I think they expected Mayer to win the FT role, but surely planned on what they felt were capable back-ups: Romy, IKF, Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard, Eaton & Cheng.

I think Cora was hesitant to give Mayer’s anything.

[UtahSox]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That means nothing to me. It's not 1983 anymore. Nobody cares about Sports Illustrated. Using AI as a crutch is hilarious to me. 

Do whatever research you feel like. Jared Carrabis said on Section 10 that the AZ wanted Tolle and Early and had no interest in Mayer. He got that from people that he heard from that spoke to people within the DBags. 

That's the source I'm going with. I don't care if you like it or not. 

https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/2070498084434362474?s=20

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Speier's connections are within the Sox org. Carrabis was getting info from within the DBags org. Which would be more likely to know what the DBags wanted in a trade? 

You're trying to prove me wrong, but I'm just stating the info I heard. You just don't like said info. 

🪰

mvp doing his best donkey from family guy..

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Romy was injured when he reported in February and was shutdown. At that point, they were clearly comfortable just going with Monasterio/IKF/et al. Seems like a bit of a mistake knowing the uncertainty with Mayer AND Story.

Yes, Romy was injured in FEB and known to not be ready by Opening day or even May, but he was depth.

Signing IKF to $6M was a back-up plan for Mayer-Story and Durbin- not just Mayer, but it was added depth.

DHam for 2 utility infielders and signing Cheng was adding depth, too.

Some here were pretty high on Sogard and Eaton, too.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Speier's connections are within the Sox org. Carrabis was getting info from within the DBags org. Which would be more likely to know what the DBags wanted in a trade? 

You're trying to prove me wrong, but I'm just stating the info I heard. You just don't like said info. 

I'm just offering evidence that supports Mayer was talked about. I'm not sure what was discussed, but you, as always, seem so sure of yourself. If the Sox insiders said AZ talked about Mayer, why is that any less evidence than AZ insiders saying they wanted Tolle & Early? Could the Tolle & Early talk have happened after BOS said no to Mayer? Surely, that is possible.

You could very well be right. I'm not trying to prove you wrong. My point was about what was discussed as offers this winter, and it wasn't 'AI." There was much talk about Mayer being what forced the Sox to say no.