A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Most of us realize BTV has some serious flaws, but I ask which of these groups of players are the most overvalued and undervalued?

Group A: 73 Rafaela, 66 Tolle, 54 Arias, 39 Suarez, 38 Mayer, 35 Abreu, 34 Early. (My choices: Mayer over/Abreu under)

Group B: 24 Eyanson, 23 Anthony, 18 Crochet, 17 Narvaez & Soto, 16 Duran (Duran over/Crochet under)

Group C: 15 Gonzales & Azocar, 14 Durbin, 12 Witherspoon, 11 Romy, 10 Valera (Durbin over/Azocar under)

Group notables: 9 Godbout, 8 Contreras, 4 Chapman, 3 Whitlock, 2 Wong, 0 IKF, Oviedo, Moraan, Watson (Wong over/Chapman under)

Group Negatives: -1 Casas, -2 Crawford, Houck & Gray, -5 Sandoval & KC, -22 Bello, -26 Yoshida, -39 Story (Casas & Sandoval over/Gray & Crawford under)

To think that the Sox would put up Garrett Crochet in a trade and they'd get the same value as a trade with Duran is laughable. 

Who would the Sox get a bigger offer for: Roman or Suarez? I think it'd be Roman TBH. 

That Romy has the same value as Chapman PLUS Contreras??? Crazy. If that's the case, I'm fielding calls on Romy all day!!!

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To think that the Sox would put up Garrett Crochet in a trade and they'd get the same value as a trade with Duran is laughable. 

Who would the Sox get a bigger offer for: Roman or Suarez? I think it'd be Roman TBH. 

That Romy has the same value as Chapman PLUS Contreras??? Crazy. If that's the case, I'm fielding calls on Romy all day!!!

All great points. The money and years of control matter a lot to BTV, but in reality, it matters to many teams, too.

Half the teams might not trade for Crochet due to their budgets, so there is an aspect of truth to BTV's flawed set-up.

Many teams would rather have Romy than the expensive Chapman+ Willson, especially teams already out of it and or on tight budgets. That is part of the reality of trades, too.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

All great points. The money and years of control matter a lot to BTV, but in reality, it matters to many teams, too.

Half the teams might not trade for Crochet due to their budgets, so there is an aspect of truth to BTV's flawed set-up.

Many teams would rather have Romy than the expensive Chapman+ Willson, especially teams already out of it and or on tight budgets. That is part of the reality of trades, too.

While it’s unlikely any teams use BTV itself, they all do something similar - projected production vs projected salary.   The biggest variable is what site(s) each uses for projections…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

While it’s unlikely any teams use BTV itself, they all do something similar - projected production vs projected salary.   The biggest variable is what site(s) each uses for projections…

I think teams may have their own systems and not rely on FanGraphs or Bref for the calculation of WAR. That could be the issue the Sox are running into with their internal models. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think teams may have their own systems and not rely on FanGraphs or Bref for the calculation of WAR. That could be the issue the Sox are running into with their internal models. 

That could be as well.  Do the Sox call theirs “FenWAR”?

But the BTV bottom line of projected production vs salary/projected salary is probably very common…

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

While it’s unlikely any teams use BTV itself, they all do something similar - projected production vs projected salary.   The biggest variable is what site(s) each uses for projections…

True, and while they might not assign a number value to every player in MLB, they do have their ways for assigning and comparing them. Of course team needs and budgets have roles, too.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox have had more major injuries than most other teams, especially with everyday players, but here is a breakdown of the ones we have had:

Anthony: missed 40 games and counting

Romy has missed all 72 games and counting

4 SP'ers essentially missed the whole season, so far. Houck, Crawford, Sandoval: all 72 games (13 GS) and counting. Oviedo started no games and wnt on the IL after 3 IP.

Crochet: 7 GS and counting. All-in-all, we've missed over 45-50 GS out of 72 games from our top 7-8 Sp'ers, when healthy.

The pen has been rather healthy, except for Slaten and some scattered games missed by others.

[L J]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt the Sox have had more major injuries than most other teams, especially with everyday players, but here is a breakdown of the ones we have had:

Anthony: missed 40 games and counting

Romy has missed all 72 games and counting

4 SP'ers essentially missed the whole season, so far. Houck, Crawford, Sandoval: all 72 games (13 GS) and counting. Oviedo started no games and wnt on the IL after 3 IP.

Crochet: 7 GS and counting. All-in-all, we've missed over 45-50 GS out of 72 games from our top 7-8 Sp'ers, when healthy.

The pen has been rather healthy, except for Slaten and some scattered games missed by others.

 

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt the Sox have had more major injuries than most other teams, especially with everyday players, but here is a breakdown of the ones we have had:

Anthony: missed 40 games and counting

Romy has missed all 72 games and counting

4 SP'ers essentially missed the whole season, so far. Houck, Crawford, Sandoval: all 72 games (13 GS) and counting. Oviedo started no games and wnt on the IL after 3 IP.

Crochet: 7 GS and counting. All-in-all, we've missed over 45-50 GS out of 72 games from our top 7-8 Sp'ers, when healthy.

The pen has been rather healthy, except for Slaten and some scattered games missed by others.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 5/30/2026 at 12:38 PM, notin said:

Breslow and Tracy need to.

They can’t keep playing station-to-station baseball.  If you’re going to try to be the Rays, which has been the goal for like 6 years now, you can’t stop at payroll; you need to play the game like them, too.

Right now the Sox have a small market lineup that’s trying to play a big market game…

my math could be off but i believe the Sox W.L record since DD was fired is 471-471.  is anyone surprised??

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

my math could be off but i believe the Sox W.L record since DD was fired is 471-471.  is anyone surprised??

I thought it would be worse.

[cp176]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We do need a SS. It is one position you don't just slap a poor defensive player there. That being said, we have all 9 positions we can add a big bat to. I'd avoid CF, but if we trade or sign one, we can move him to LF or RF, so big bat additions are not restricted to positions, under my view.

If we add 2 big bats anywhere but SS, I'd be okay with Mayer at SS. If we add a SS, we'd have Mayer at 3B or 2B, but we'd have Durbin, Romy and others to choose from. We don't have that choice at SS.

I'm just saying my preference for big bats is at SS and either 2B or 3B. I realize those two slots don't have a ton of .900 potential guys that are available, so we'd likely have to look at my next tier of preference: DH or C.

The last preferences are 1B (assuming no Willson trade) and OF, unless we trade Duran and move Anthony to DH.

I'm not limiting the addition of a .900 bat by any position- just offering preferences.

I actually agree with your point that the 2 big bats is the top priority- not positions.

I will add that your ",900" point makes it a near impossible ask for this coming winter. There are only 5 batters in MLB with a .900+ OPS from 2025-2026 combined, and which one is available?

600+ PAs

1.078 Judge

.999 Ohtani & Kurtz

.937 Soto

.925 Schwaber

Okay, assume you meant near .900 or someone with strong promise to be near .900...

.892 Buxton, .891 Rice, .890 Carroll, .882 Acuna, .881 Springer

There is a big drop to...

.867 Wood, .865 Olsen & Langeliers, .864 Yandy Diaz & Muncy, .862 Freeman & Raleigh

Drop the PAs to 300 to try and find promising players or players who got hurt...

.968 Yoran, .886 Stanton, .876 Canzone, .841 Colsen Montgomery

I'm not seeing many opportunities to find two big bats at your level of greatness.

 

I’m in the very small camp of do not trade Mayer.  He would be one or two of the actual position players that I would not trade.  

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, cp176 said:

I’m in the very small camp of do not trade Mayer.  He would be one or two of the actual position players that I would not trade.  

i wouldn't trade Mayer either but given that he is still under control and not making much there is little chance of that happening.  There is even LESS chance though of Henry bucking up any big bats and we need at LEAST 2 if not more.

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought it would be worse.

it seems like it doesn't it

[notin]

4 hours ago, cp176 said:

I’m in the very small camp of do not trade Mayer.  He would be one or two of the actual position players that I would not trade.  

Very much not for trading Mayer.  
 

To me the trade candidates are Chapman, Gray, IKF (although I’d love him back next year), Guerrero, and Duran.

I’d add Story and Yoshida, but neither is going anywhere, unless Yoshida is heading to the waiver wire if he doesn’t start hitting soon…

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, cp176 said:

I’m in the very small camp of do not trade Mayer.  He would be one or two of the actual position players that I would not trade.  

I doubt his trade value equals his upside potential value, so I don't disagree with you.

This team is full of potential energy. We need kinetic energy. I can understand trading some potential, but it need not be and maybe should not be Mayer.

If I knew Brez was going to add 2-3 solid infielders next winter, I'd feel better about trading Mayer, but we need to keep a couple from what we have now, at least.... maybe 3 (1-2 as utility.)

Romy

Durbin

Mayer

Monasterio, Seigler, Eaton, KC, Arias (mid summer 2027 call-up?)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Very much not for trading Mayer.  
 

To me the trade candidates are Chapman, Gray, IKF (although I’d love him back next year), Guerrero, and Duran.

I’d add Story and Yoshida, but neither is going anywhere, unless Yoshida is heading to the waiver wire if he doesn’t start hitting soon…

Exactly how I see it. Maybe add Wong as a minor piece dealt.

Keep Contreras & Whitlock, unless someone makes an impressive offer.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly how I see it. Maybe add Wong as a minor piece dealt.

Keep Contreras & Whitlock, unless someone makes an impressive offer.

Especially keep Whitlock since Breslow has a tendency to ignore the bullpen…

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Especially keep Whitlock since Breslow has a tendency to ignore the bullpen…

I am not for trading Whitlock or Contreras.

An "impressive" offer might be someone close to as good as Whitlock but with more years of control.

[moonslav59]

I hesitate to start the 2027 thread, but there are a few things to think about, many of which are unpredictable to varying degrees.

1. The return of injured players is always tricky. Crochet is the major factor, and for all we know, he will end up needing surgery. Knowing the Sox, they time it wrongly, and he misses all of 2027 and maybe part of 2028, too. Houck and Crawford could be major pluses, next year, but I think we need to plan on both being rotational or pen depth. Oviedo was largely unknown to begin with, but he'd be depth, also. Casas cannot be counted on as anything but depth. I doubt we have a roster crunch with this year's Rule 5 group, so he will likely start the season on the 40 (or IL.) Romy can be counted on as a platoon or FT 2Bman/1Bman, but I hope we still add 2 major infield adds. Story will likely be counted on as the FT 2Bman or SS, sadly. He should be viewed as depth or traded. There is a lot of talent in this IL group, but as always, if the se guys comeback strong, someone else will get hurt.

2. The loss of Gray, IKF, Coulombe & Sandoval. Some serious money comes off the books, but not nearly enough to fill the 5-6 slots we need to fill. We will likely try to get by without adding any significant or costly SP'ers to replace Gray, and he seems like the only major piece we lose. That's a big change from past years. 

3. The rotation: Crochet is the key, and assuming he's back, the rotation looks like this: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Early, Crawford/Houck/Oviedo/Bello/Bennett (Eyanson?)

4. The pen. Chapman: he has a mutual option that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 40 IP. He's at 21.2, now with more than half the season to go, but who knows? We need him back. (This assumes he is not traded, this summer.) The pen will need additions, and counting on converted SP'ers never seems to work out, as they end up being needed to fill injury caused openings. Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, _____, _____, Moran, Weissert, Kelly, Watson and Crawford/Houck/Oviedo/Bello/Bennett

5. Catcher: I feel this is a top 6 need area, but if we can add two big bats and fill 2 IF positions and DH (assuming Duran is traded) I'd probably be okay with Narvaez and one from Wong (probably traded) or Gasper (probably kept.) I'll list as _____, Narvaez & Gasper/Wong

6. 1B: I'm counting on Contreras returning with Romy as his back-up. Casas/Brannon as AAA depth.

7. 2B/3B/SS: I'd like to count on just 1 slot being filled by Durbin, Mayer, Romy & Story, but I doubt Brez & Co thinks like that. They will count on two. My list looks like this: _____ (SS) _____ (2B/3B) Durbin, Romy & Mayer (Trade Story with cash or prospect) Monasterio, Seigler, KC as AAA depth.

8. OF: I'm assuming we trade Duran and stop the endless questions. We do not add an OF'er. Anthony/Yoshida LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF (Eaton and maybe Ward as AAA depth.)

9. DH: Needs a big bat add. ______, Yoshida/Romy (Casas/Brannon)

Highest needs:

1. Big bat (SS or DH would be best fit, but any position is fine.)

2. Big bat (SS/DH or 2B/3B would be best, but any position is fine, except no 2 DH/OF'ers added?

3 & 4. SS, DH, 2B/3B, C: whichever is not filled by #1 and #2.

5. RP

6. RP

 

[cp176]

19 hours ago, notin said:

Very much not for trading Mayer.  
 

To me the trade candidates are Chapman, Gray, IKF (although I’d love him back next year), Guerrero, and Duran.

I’d add Story and Yoshida, but neither is going anywhere, unless Yoshida is heading to the waiver wire if he doesn’t start hitting soon…

I would keep most of the young regulars.  I agree with your primary trade candidates but I might even add Suarez to the list reluctantly.  Chapman, Gray, Suarez and Duran will be guys that other teams might want.  

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, cp176 said:

I would keep most of the young regulars.  I agree with your primary trade candidates but I might even add Suarez to the list reluctantly.  Chapman, Gray, Suarez and Duran will be guys that other teams might want.  

I hope the Red Sox end up don’t selling anyone off.🤔

[moonslav59]

Some crazy numbers:

Run Differential and W-L records

-8 PHI 41-35 (7th best in MLB)

-6 CLE 41-36 (8th best)

-3 CWS 39-36 (9th best)

-9 SDP 39-36 (10th best)

-23 AZ 39-38 (13th)

-1 MIA 39-38 (14th)

The Sox are 13th in Run Diff at -5 but 26th in W-L% at .419.

Untimely hitting and too many 1 to 2 run losses pretty much sums it up. It seems more mental than skill-lacking.

[moonslav59]

OPS Against

as SP

.607 Suarez

.615 Tolle

.695 Bennett

.709 Gray

.732 Early

.818 Crochet

1.057 Bello

1.417 Samaniego as "opener"

1.433 Moran as "opener"

_______________________

as RP

.479 Chapman

.480 Moran (WOW! Take away his opener numbers, and...)

.484 Bello (WOW!!!)

.577 Whitlock

.593 Coulombe

.614 Kelly (in AAA)

.633 Samaniego (in AAA)

.677 Guerrero

.721 Weissert

.777 Watson

.873 Slaten

Is it time to end the Watson experiment and give Kelly or Samaniego another look-see?

[FredLynn]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Some crazy numbers:

Run Differential and W-L records

-8 PHI 41-35 (7th best in MLB)

-6 CLE 41-36 (8th best)

-3 CWS 39-36 (9th best)

-9 SDP 39-36 (10th best)

-23 AZ 39-38 (13th)

-1 MIA 39-38 (14th)

The Sox are 13th in Run Diff at -5 but 26th in W-L% at .419.

Untimely hitting and too many 1 to 2 run losses pretty much sums it up. It seems more mental than skill-lacking.

Ummm...no, its SKILL lacking. When you are trotting out bums like IKF, Gaspar, Durbum etc etc there is CLEARLY not enough talent to compete. Chad Finn had a great column recently imploring the FLOPS to toss in the towel already and not pretend they have a competitive team in order to fill the park with fans who are deluded into believing that this is anything but a last place team.

Its SKILL lacking.

Schwarber hit 3 HRs yesterday. We coulda had him if the owner wasn't so CHEAP.

[moonslav59]

Last 28 Days OPS

.997 Contreras (Getting even better!)

.884 Durbin (Man on Fire)

.869 Wong (25 PAs)

.804 Seigler (8 PAs)

.803 IKF (on IL)

.795 Rafaela (as steady as he's ever been)

.726 Abreu (maybe last night lit a spark)

.715 Duran (.272 OBP- not hearing leadoff talk anymore.)

.646 Mayer (.772 last 9 games)

.626 Masa (.722 last 5 games)

.585 Gasper (the friendly ghost)

.563 Sogard (17 PAs)

.556 Monasterio (bring Seigler back up?)

.260 Narvaez (talk about a ghost)

.143 Eaton (7 PAs)

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ummm...no, its SKILL lacking. When you are trotting out bums like IKF, Gaspar, Durbum etc etc there is CLEARLY not enough talent to compete. Chad Finn had a great column recently imploring the FLOPS to toss in the towel already and not pretend they have a competitive team in order to fill the park with fans who are deluded into believing that this is anything but a last place team.

Its SKILL lacking.

Skill lacking and untimely hitting/run-scoring.

13th in Run Diff and 26th in W-L% shows some sort of disconnect.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Skill lacking and untimely hitting/run-scoring.

13th in Run Diff and 26th in W-L% shows some sort of disconnect.

I'm just looking at the roster...who is in the lineup. There are a few guys doing the job...Abreu, Contreras etc, but too many AAAA bums being passed off as ML players. IKF for example was signed as a depth move, which I was fine with. But he is in the lineup every day almost. We have a lot of IKF types and too few Schwarber types.

[moonslav59]

How is Masa 14 for 14 in SB attempts?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Skill lacking and untimely hitting/run-scoring.

13th in Run Diff and 26th in W-L% shows some sort of disconnect.

Fred is right what he’s saying, and this is right too. A Flintstone Schwaber in the middle of the Red SOX lineup would have done wonders just like a lot of AAAA players the Red Sox are using have not done wonders. This the record the Red Sox have.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

I'm just looking at the roster...who is in the lineup. There are a few guys doing the job...Abreu, Contreras etc, but too many AAAA bums being passed off as ML players. IKF for example was signed as a depth move, which I was fine with. But he is in the lineup every day almost. We have a lot of IKF types and too few Schwarber types.

This sums things up pretty darn accurately..👍👍👍