A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 2026 team is making Breslow's architectural skills look like crap.

It does right now, for sure, despite the success of his 3 major additions, last winter: Contreras, Gray & Suarez, plus the mid season extension to Chapman.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Why such the low opinion?  He had a few injuries, but he was also pretty good.  MLB and BA and Baseball Prospectus are not 100% accurate - no one whose job involves predicting the future is - but what about him didn’t you like?  And when did you start not liking him?

And yes the Sox have seen too many bench players creep into the starting lineup.  Even Yoshida wasn’t expected to start given the roster on opening day.  But they’re without Antjony, Story, and Casas and even the bench players (Sogard) are starting to go down with injuries.  It doesn’t help that another third of their starters are serving year players (Durbin, Narvaez, Mayer) and for many second year players, sophomore slumps are real.  It’s taken over 2 full seasons for Rafaela to turn into a contributing starter (and a major contributor at that), but it’s been worth it…

The Romy injury might be more impactful than we imagine, but I don't think his and the injuries you mentioned are much more than the average injury totals in MLB.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Good teams get sluggers.

So far Contreras has been a nice "slugger" and plays plus defense, but I agree. I think the vast majority felt we came up short on adding big bats, last winter.

Berny Ortiz is too far away! (LOL)

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Romy injury might be more impactful than we imagine, but I don't think his and the injuries you mentioned are much more than the average injury totals in MLB.

I think they are worthwhile of pointing out, but I agree that they cant be used to excuse away the bad offseason we had.

[UtahSox]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm probably lucky to miss the last 2 weeks of chat and watching the games.

For the first time in forever, I won't go back and watch the games, It seems pointless.

This season is so discouraging and depressing.

There have been some good performances here and there, and a few players are doing well, but what a horrible meltdown this team has had, so far.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but there is no reason to expect a turn-around. If the deadline were today, I'd trade every 1 year guys and also Duran and 2-3 year players who seem to not fit into the future. I'm not for a total rebuild and a 5 year plan. I'd look for ML players or near ML prospects in return.

This is hard to watch. I saw the game last night in the plane to Houston. Hard to stomach. 

Agree, 100% that’s why I think we need to make some risky trades. I can’t fathom going into spring training next year trying to tell everybody our starting lineup will be 

1. Anthony 2. Rafaela 3. Abreu 4. Contreras 5. story 6. Mayer 7. Durbin 

makes me physically ill. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt this management teams decides to start a total rebuild process. I think they trust a sizeable core of the current roster (26 and 40 man as well as the farm) to get us to a better place. That trust MAY end up being the downfall of this think tank. Many here seem to think the word "may" is poorly chosen, or they think the core or "foundation" is too few in numbers and or lacks true star power.

Almost every MLB has some sort of question mark, but clearly other teams have more top quality players than we do. When it comes to "promising players" and prospects, we might be near or above many teams, but hope should never be the main strategy.

I see our core for at least the next 3 years as being:

Crochet, Suarez & Contreras (despite being 34.) Tolle, Abreu and Rafaela have yet to prove they have true complete star abilities. So, maybe we have 5-6 true "foundational" players. That is woefully short, unless the team has way more next level good players to make up for the lack of star power.

Our "next level" has some promise, but few have shown top results for a sustained time, so far. Anthony has the most promise with Early pretty close. Whitlock has shown he can be an excellent set-up man. Slaten has a ways to go. Romy has not proven he can play FT. Houck and Crawford do not have 3 years of control. Duran looks like he is in decline and has just 2 arbs left. Bello and Casas might be toast. Mayer and KC have lost much speculative value. Durbin might be a decent player, but not someone who is clearly better than most team's 3B/1Bman.

The farm still has some hopes and prayers, but many are 1.5 to 2.5 years away. 

Arias is 20 and in AA (soxprospects says his ETA is early '27, but we can't expect greatness or even plus play out of the gate.)

Eyanson (21 and AA) might be the best farm hope for near immediate help.

Witherspoon (21 and A+) is still working on refining various pitches.

Bennett (25 and AAA/MLB) is ML ready but still questionable aon hos much of a plus he can be.

The following A+ players have some serious upside, but may not be a help until 2028 or 2029: Gonzales 19, Godbout 22, Azocar 19 & Valera 20.

Phillips, Holobetz & Cespedes are too much of longshot material.

Soto, Delzine and Primera are all beyond 3 years away.

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We all knew the back end of his 10+/12 year could get scary. His deal began in 2021, so he's really had just 4 good years in the deal (21-24.) In those 4 good years the Dodgers won rings, and Betts averages 133 games a year- missing an average or 23% of all possible games. His OPS was .899 (145 OPS+) While .873 in a very nice OPS, he only topped that once in those 4 years- that doozy of a 2023 season at .987 -2nd in MVP voting)

While he might resurge, 2025 was not a great year, either: .732 OPS (102 OPS+)

2025-2026: .714 (99 OPS+) in 199 games. He turns 34 in October. He is owed...

$25M at age 34

30 at 35

30 at 36

30 at 37

27.5 at 38 and 39 (2032)

$115M of deferred money will be paid from 2033 to 2044.

That's $285M still owed- almost what we reportedly offered him ($300M/10.)

Many use the rings as the main guide of success, and I have myself used this. Years from now, the deal may look rather "meh."

One thing is for sure, the return of Verdugo, who turned into Weissert & Fitts, Wong & Downs gave us very little. One could argue Fitts was a main part of the Sonny Gray trade, but that gets rather complex.

I wish we had kept Betts, but he'd be no savior for this season.

Disagree about 2025.  He had a 4.9 bWAR and a 3.4 fWAR.  His SS defense has turned out to be much better than average.

As for this season, we would need prime Ortiz and prime Manny to save us.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think they are worthwhile of pointing out, but I agree that they cant be used to excuse away the bad offseason we had.

While we can and should blame the "off season," I have to think the 3 major additions were the best 3 off season moves we've made in a very long time.

To me, the foundation turned out to be weaker than many of us thought it was. That goes back to past off seasons and even into the Bloom era.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Disagree about 2025.  He had a 4.9 bWAR and a 3.4 fWAR.  His SS defense has turned out to be much better than average.

As for this season, we would need prime Ortiz and prime Manny to save us.

Good point. We could use a 2025 Betts, this year, and the 150 games played was his second most since 2017.

He still was not vintage Betts, however.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Good point. We could use a 2025 Betts, this year, and the 150 games played was his second most since 2017.

He still was not vintage Betts, however.

You're not going to get vintage every year.

Betts's lowest bWAR in full seasons since 2015 has been 4.1 in 2021.

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Agree, 100% that’s why I think we need to make some risky trades. I can’t fathom going into spring training next year trying to tell everybody our starting lineup will be 

1. Anthony 2. Rafaela 3. Abreu 4. Contreras 5. story 6. Mayer 7. Durbin 

makes me physically ill. 

I think counting on Rafaela, Contreras & Abreu is about the only 3 we can have enough trust in. I really like Anthony, but he needs to have a full season to gain my trust. I'd be okay with Mayer-Durbin for 3B or 2B, but counting on both is too  scary for me. (They could maybe platoon.) I'm pretty sure Brez & Co is counting on Anthony, Mayer and Durbin as 2027 FT'ers. 

We need to not count on Duran, Story and Yoshida. Our catching tandem cannot be counted on as being a net plus in 2027. That leaves 2 infield slots, LF/DH and C as open for additions.

That's 4 slots on the everyday side with the pen needing reliable additions as well.

C: _______ (Narvaez/Wong/Gasper as #2)

1B Contreras (Romy)

Count one in parenthesis as a starter/platoon slot filled:

2B (Romy) _______ Romy

SS (Mayer) _______ Mayer

3B (Durbin)_______ Durbin

LF/DH Anthony (Duran as 4th OF'er)

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu 

DH/LF ______ (Yoshida/Duran)

The rotation has to be counted on as needing no 2027 additions, since there is no way JH & Co spend to fill all the everyday slots and add a quality SP'er. (I doubt Gray comes back on mutual option.)

Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Early and one from Houck, Crawford, Bennett, Oviedo, Bello or Eyanson

Pen: Chapman, Whitlock, _____, ______, ______, Slaten, (SP converted), one from Weissert, Moran, Watson, Kelly, Samaniego or a converted SP like Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Bennett or Holobetz.

Needing 3-4 everyday players and 2-3 key pen pieces is probably too much to ask for, and this assumes we don't trade Chapman or any players controlled into 2027.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're not going to get vintage every year.

Betts's lowest bWAR in full seasons since 2015 has been 4.1 in 2021.

Yes, and we knew that. We also knew there would be decline around age 34-35. How much he declines could alter our final viewpoint. I think we all still wish we'd kept him.

My point has always been that if JH had kept the same budgets, I doubt we'd have been much better off.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While we can and should blame the "off season," I have to think the 3 major additions were the best 3 off season moves we've made in a very long time.

To me, the foundation turned out to be weaker than many of us thought it was. That goes back to past off seasons and even into the Bloom era.

Yes the so called foundation. Way too much expectations was placed on little Anthony to start with. Then you go to Crochet whom i questioned all offseason if his first time heavy workload from last year would affect him this year.  It did. Story, Mayer DUBin, and Duran all got off to less than stellar start to be kind, which has also led to a not so stellar record to be kind also. Con Man, and Gray have been great, and Ranger has had some good moments, but not enough to offset the holdovers from last year.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and we knew that. We also knew there would be decline around age 34-35. How much he declines could alter our final viewpoint. I think we all still wish we'd kept him.

My point has always been that if JH had kept the same budgets, I doubt we'd have been much better off.

Of course you’re not defending, or apologizing for JH, but you have NO WAY, to know how things would have turned out.🤔

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While we can and should blame the "off season," I have to think the 3 major additions were the best 3 off season moves we've made in a very long time.

To me, the foundation turned out to be weaker than many of us thought it was. That goes back to past off seasons and even into the Bloom era.

I completely disagree.  Breslow failed hard this offseason.  And he has been failing since he got here.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and we knew that. We also knew there would be decline around age 34-35. How much he declines could alter our final viewpoint. I think we all still wish we'd kept him.

My point has always been that if JH had kept the same budgets, I doubt we'd have been much better off.

They would have been better off with the same budgets if they:

a) Kept Betts

b) Let Sale and Bogaerts walk

c) Hired a CBO who made better moves

 

[Old Red]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

They would have been better off with the same budgets if they:

a) Kept Betts

b) Let Sale and Bogaerts walk

c) Hired a CBO who made better moves

 

There would have been so many things different. Good, or bad? Nobody will ever know.

[drewski6]

Just now, Old Red said:

There would have been so many things different. Good, or bad? Nobody will ever know.

Its hard to accept that in a parallel universe, two different CBOs from Bloom, Breslow could yield worse results if they even tried.  Since 2020, we have 4 last place finishes in 7 years (including this one). Mix in one playoff series win (2021), one .500 year, and last year - which appears to be fools gold going by how much
our issue was the holdovers" talk Im hearing. Maybe 2025 was Cora magic?  Oop, Breslow ruined that relationship too. Shucks.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They would have been better off with the same budgets if they:

a) Kept Betts

b) Let Sale and Bogaerts walk

c) Hired a CBO who made better moves

 

Well, every team is better if the CBO makes better moves.   Sort of reminiscent of those old Derek Sanderson keys to the game for the Bruins which always included “the Bruins have to out the puck in the net.”

The Sale deal was a flop.  I get why he made it, but it didn’t work out.

”Better moves” is often just measured by results, but sometimes moves are just stupid.  Those are what really bother me.  Trading Tibbs for Dustin May was stupid, for example.  Trading Priester was stupid as well.  Sale just didn’t work out at all…

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There would have been so many things different. Good, or bad? Nobody will ever know.

True.  What we do know is that the years 2020-2026 have been bad to mediocre, with the one brief bright spot of the 2021 postseason run. 

[drewski6]

This is also why I cant accept we are stuck with Breslow because if sack him, who next? Its literally hard to fail as hard as breslow has, even if we get a CBO who is literally trying to fail.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

This is also why I cant accept we are stuck with Breslow because if sack him, who next? Its literally hard to fail as hard as breslow has, even if we get a CBO who is literally trying to fail.

And this is where blame has to fall on Henry.  He has made the Red Sox CBO an unattractive job.  You can win 3 division titles and a championship in 4 years and still get unceremoniously booted.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True.  What we do know is that the years 2020-2026 have been bad to mediocre, with the one brief bright spot of the 2021 postseason run. 

I agree, and all after DD left. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, every team is better if the CBO makes better moves.   Sort of reminiscent of those old Derek Sanderson keys to the game for the Bruins which always included “the Bruins have to out the puck in the net.”

The Sale deal was a flop.  I get why he made it, but it didn’t work out.

”Better moves” is often just measured by results, but sometimes moves are just stupid.  Those are what really bother me.  Trading Tibbs for Derek May was stupid, for example.  Trading Priester was stupid as well.  Sale just didn’t work out at all…

I'm a bottom line guy.  There are always going to be some moves that work out and some that don't. 

But when you look at our W-L records and our payrolls in the Bloom-Breslow years, there's just no way to call them successful CBO's.  And what are the Boston Red Sox doing hiring back-to-back heads of baseball operations with zero experience at the job?  

[harmony]

On 5/11/2026 at 4:42 PM, notin said:

Kind of see most teams doing it.  Sometimes it works out.  Sometimes it doesn’t.  Campbell is hardly the first.  Eloy Jimenez for example. David Fletcher as well.  Colt Keith isn’t exactly thumping.  And the jury is still out on Konnor Griffin, Cooper Pratt, Colt Emerson, etc.

Evaluation of young players is tough ... and sometimes confusing.

In 23 games at the MLB level, 20-year-old Colt Emerson has posted a 145 OPS+ (144 wRC+) in 84 plate appearances for 1.0 bWAR (0.8 fWAR). Emerson's six home runs would be on pace for 42 homers over a 162-game season.

Nevertheless, Emerson's Baseball Savant page is highly discouraging for the small sample:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colt-emerson-806068?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The Red Sox will likely see Emerson this weekend in Seattle.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, every team is better if the CBO makes better moves.   Sort of reminiscent of those old Derek Sanderson keys to the game for the Bruins which always included “the Bruins have to out the puck in the net.”

The Sale deal was a flop.  I get why he made it, but it didn’t work out.

”Better moves” is often just measured by results, but sometimes moves are just stupid.  Those are what really bother me.  Trading Tibbs for Dustin May was stupid, for example.  Trading Priester was stupid as well.  Sale just didn’t work out at all…

The Sale deal was a flop, and it didn’t have to be made when it did.

[UtahSox]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think counting on Rafaela, Contreras & Abreu is about the only 3 we can have enough trust in. I really like Anthony, but he needs to have a full season to gain my trust. I'd be okay with Mayer-Durbin for 3B or 2B, but counting on both is too  scary for me. (They could maybe platoon.) I'm pretty sure Brez & Co is counting on Anthony, Mayer and Durbin as 2027 FT'ers. 

We need to not count on Duran, Story and Yoshida. Our catching tandem cannot be counted on as being a net plus in 2027. That leaves 2 infield slots, LF/DH and C as open for additions.

That's 4 slots on the everyday side with the pen needing reliable additions as well.

C: _______ (Narvaez/Wong/Gasper as #2)

1B Contreras (Romy)

Count one in parenthesis as a starter/platoon slot filled:

2B (Romy) _______ Romy

SS (Mayer) _______ Mayer

3B (Durbin)_______ Durbin

LF/DH Anthony (Duran as 4th OF'er)

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu 

DH/LF ______ (Yoshida/Duran)

The rotation has to be counted on as needing no 2027 additions, since there is no way JH & Co spend to fill all the everyday slots and add a quality SP'er. (I doubt Gray comes back on mutual option.)

Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Early and one from Houck, Crawford, Bennett, Oviedo, Bello or Eyanson

Pen: Chapman, Whitlock, _____, ______, ______, Slaten, (SP converted), one from Weissert, Moran, Watson, Kelly, Samaniego or a converted SP like Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Bennett or Holobetz.

Needing 3-4 everyday players and 2-3 key pen pieces is probably too much to ask for, and this assumes we don't trade Chapman or any players controlled into 2027.

Agree about your needs assessment 100%

but I’d love your ideas of deals you’d pursue to help this team.
1- free agency? Gleyber Torres?
2- Trades now? 
3- guys you think will be available before 2027 season.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

The Sale deal was a flop, and it didn’t have to be made when it did.

Well, if it was going to be made at all, it probably did.  Sale was coming of 4 years of barely pitching and hadn’t been elite Sale for 6 years.  Another early season injury and he was untradable again.  Grissom was a young promising player who didn’t pan out.  But he was also the only time Boston got offered anything even remotely valuable for the oft-injured pitcher.  It didn’t work out, but it was at least understandable.  Unlike dealing Priester and acquiring May, both moves of which made zero sense…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm a bottom line guy.  There are always going to be some moves that work out and some that don't. 

But when you look at our W-L records and our payrolls in the Bloom-Breslow years, there's just no way to call them successful CBO's.  And what are the Boston Red Sox doing hiring back-to-back heads of baseball operations with zero experience at the job?  

And #12 Breslow was even worse as he did most of his work from home while with the Cubs.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Agree about your needs assessment 100%

but I’d love your ideas of deals you’d pursue to help this team.
1- free agency? Gleyber Torres?
2- Trades now? 
3- guys you think will be available before 2027 season.

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?