A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, most posters were unhappy about the offseason! Yes, there has been player regression! 

I haven't seen anyone state that it's unfair to ask why the negotiations fell apart. We already know why: the NTC. 

Nobody thought this was the second best team in baseball going into the offseason. I don't believe that. 

Nobody said it was a great offseason. You need to show me some real posts for that not just hyperbole. 

As I said before the season started that the offseason was a settlement, and time will tell if the settlement works out, or not.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

IKF's OPS was only 569 on 5/23 and 445 on 5/15. It's not like he's been a house on fire. He went 4-8 with a 2b. 

Pretty sad, when this makes him top tier (out of 2 tiers.)

[mvp 78]

Just now, Maxbialystock said:

If those numbers are correct, I believe it's fair to acknowlege that Breslow is working at a disadvantage compared to all John Henry CBO's before him. 

No.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow extension.

Extend him to the end of a plank over a moat full of crocodiles.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Extend him to the end of a plank over a moat full of crocodiles.

Boop that snoot.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pretty sad, when this makes him top tier (out of 2 tiers.)

Tiers of a clown.

[notin]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Those hitters are better than Mayer and Durbin right now. I'm not hitching my wagon to IKF though. I'd call up Capra or somebody else for the time being. 

These are players that both Mayer and Durbin outperformed at every level at younger ages.  Why not let Mayer and Durbin continue to learn to hit MLB pitching while facing MLB pitching rather than another round of MiLB?  You probably get similar production out of them that youre going to get out of Sogard, IKF, and Capra but you could also make Mayer and Durbin better hitters going forward… 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

These are players that both Mayer and Durbin outperformed at every level at younger ages.  Why not let Mayer and Durbin continue to learn to hit MLB pitching while facing MLB pitching rather than another round of MiLB?  You probably get similar production out of them that youre going to get out of Sogard, IKF, and Capra but you could also make Mayer and Durbin better hitters going forward… 

You won't get similar production. Sogard has outperformed Mayer as an MLBer from the jump. Mayer is just not ready. He was promoted too early. He is overmatched and regressing. Durbin is one of the worst hitters in MLB. What is he learning from his failure right now???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

These are players that both Mayer and Durbin outperformed at every level at younger ages.  Why not let Mayer and Durbin continue to learn to hit MLB pitching while facing MLB pitching rather than another round of MiLB?  You probably get similar production out of them that youre going to get out of Sogard, IKF, and Capra but you could also make Mayer and Durbin better hitters going forward… 

Good point. When teams make the painful concession they're going nowhere fast, it's usually time to roll with the youth. Let the future core develop. 

It still would help to add another big bat or two -- even if they're not making the playoffs, the reinforcements can aid struggling neophytes by taking the pressure off them at the plate.

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

These are players that both Mayer and Durbin outperformed at every level at younger ages.  Why not let Mayer and Durbin continue to learn to hit MLB pitching while facing MLB pitching rather than another round of MiLB?  You probably get similar production out of them that youre going to get out of Sogard, IKF, and Capra but you could also make Mayer and Durbin better hitters going forward… 

Huh? Is this spring training, or regular season where games are actually counting?🙈🤭🤮

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Huh? Is this spring training, or regular season where games are actually counting?🙈🤭🤮

These kids are out there just having fun and that's all that really matters at the end of the day. They're doing their best! 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The bullpen lost some games, but if the offense is 29th in runs scored at Home, I think the offense is playing a part in every game being too close for comfort. You can't force every game to be a highwire act for your pitchers. 

No doubt the hitting is the biggest weakness.  

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

These kids are out there just having fun and that's all that really matters at the end of the day. They're doing their best! 

And at the that’s not good enough. I don’t think DUBin is having much fun, and even less watching utility players take his place.

[drewski6]

I understand wanting to shift playing time / at-bats towards younger players as we start a soft wind-down of competitiveness this year.  Not saying we wont hit a winning streak and ramp back up, but I understand thinking "we arent throwing in the towel, but at the same time we're gonna start thinking about what it would look like to start prioritizing future over present"

But one thing I always fall back to is that development isnt linear with playing time.  In fact, I would argue that the correlation is overrated.  Theres more to this than just promoting a bunch of 21 yr olds and thinking "if I just stick with them, by age 25 these guys will be great! I just gotta take the growing pains along the way and not stray"

But the truth is that it doesnt work that way.  I see this level of thinking in NFL.  Sometimes, if a rookie or sophmore QB starts and then there is talk of moving on after, a lot of fans get uncomfortable on the wasted resources and time.  Its depressing to accept that youve spent what 3 yrs getting this QB (first year tank for a pick, draft him high have him ride the bench and learn for a year, start year 2 and flop)....And that leads to a lot of homerish overrating of ones own youngsters.

In this particular case, though, if we are talking about Mayer and Anthony.  My gut right now is on the side of keepers (both).  Mayer is 6'3 and fluid and I think that Anthony will become at least a very good hitter.  But I also think that the benefits of playing time are overrated and Mayer specifically can still grow if he starts hitting lower in the order or getting benched for IKF/Sogard or even sent down.  I do acknowledge that from what weve seen with like KC, Grissom....Its hard to come back from that.  But I dont think that moving Mayer to bench or AAA is going to like ruin him.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Tiers of a clown.

Now if there's a smile on my face
It's only Sam trying to fool the public
But when it comes down to fooling Sox Nation
Now honey that's quite a different subject

But don't let our glad expression
Give JH the wrong impression
Cause really We're sad, Oh We're sadder than sad
Well we're hurt and I want wins so bad
Like a clown we appear to be glad ooh yeah

Well they're some sad things known to man
But ain't too much sadder than
The tiers of a clown when there's no one around...

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And at the that’s not good enough. I don’t think DUBin is having much fun, and even less watching utility players take his place.

It's more important that he learns from the bench! 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I understand wanting to shift playing time / at-bats towards younger players as we start a soft wind-down of competitiveness this year.  Not saying we wont hit a winning streak and ramp back up, but I understand thinking "we arent throwing in the towel, but at the same time we're gonna start thinking about what it would look like to start prioritizing future over present"

But one thing I always fall back to is that development isnt linear with playing time.  In fact, I would argue that the correlation is overrated.  Theres more to this than just promoting a bunch of 21 yr olds and thinking "if I just stick with them, by age 25 these guys will be great! I just gotta take the growing pains along the way and not stray"

But the truth is that it doesnt work that way.  I see this level of thinking in NFL.  Sometimes, if a rookie or sophmore QB starts and then there is talk of moving on after, a lot of fans get uncomfortable on the wasted resources and time.  Its depressing to accept that youve spent what 3 yrs getting this QB (first year tank for a pick, draft him high have him ride the bench and learn for a year, start year 2 and flop)....And that leads to a lot of homerish overrating of ones own youngsters.

In this particular case, though, if we are talking about Mayer and Anthony.  My gut right now is on the side of keepers (both).  Mayer is 6'3 and fluid and I think that Anthony will become at least a very good hitter.  But I also think that the benefits of playing time are overrated and Mayer specifically can still grow if he starts hitting lower in the order or getting benched for IKF/Sogard or even sent down.  I do acknowledge that from what weve seen with like KC, Grissom....Its hard to come back from that.  But I dont think that moving Mayer to bench or AAA is going to like ruin him.  

Hit lower in the order? Marcelo has hit 7, 8 or 9 in 38 of his 49 games. He's never started a game higher than 6th. Can't get much lower than that!

Mayer is really struggling lately. It's time to just get him to AAA and let him get some confidence back. Same with Durbin. Learning on the job clearly isn't working for them.

Mayer 459 OPS May

Durbin 384 OPS May

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

 

Mayer is really struggling lately. It's time to just get him to AAA and let him get some confidence back. Same with Durbin.

Call up Anthony Seigler.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Call up Anthony Seigler.

For Mayer? I guess since he's on the 40. Seigler can player everywhere. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You won't get similar production. Sogard has outperformed Mayer as an MLBer from the jump. Mayer is just not ready. He was promoted too early. He is overmatched and regressing. Durbin is one of the worst hitters in MLB. What is he learning from his failure right now???

Both Mayer and Durbin are having some learning curves, which is not surprising.  Sogard has the hotter bar today, but he is a career .683 OPS hitter for his career and his last 34 PA are most likely just a hot streak.  And I have my doubts Mayer and Durbin will learn to better hit MLB pitching by facing AAA pitching…
 

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For Mayer? I guess since he's on the 40. Seigler can player everywhere. 

Yes, yes, and he's hot.

[notin]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Call up Anthony Seigler.

DFA Guerrero and call up Ward, if anyone…

[Duran Is The Man]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And at the that’s not good enough. I don’t think DUBin is having much fun, and even less watching utility players take his place.

and to think Bresloverpay traded a major league starting pitcher for this AAAA utility-man-dime-a-dozen loser is mind-blowing.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

DFA Guerrero and call up Ward, if anyone…

3.61 FIP

3.27 xERA

 

[drewski6]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hit lower in the order? Marcelo has hit 7, 8 or 9 in 38 of his 49 games. He's never started a game higher than 6th. Can't get much lower than that!

Mayer is really struggling lately. It's time to just get him to AAA and let him get some confidence back. Same with Durbin. Learning on the job clearly isn't working for them.

Mayer 459 OPS May

Durbin 384 OPS May

Agree.  But Mayer should have a clear path back, even in 2027.  Durbin may have to get lucky with like an injury in front of him or something.  Or get like really really really hot in AAA.

I still view Mayer as an important part of our future.  Maybe downgrade him to " a potentially important part of our future".  Durbin is behind Sogard and IKF on the depth chart to me.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Agree.  But Mayer should have a clear path back, even in 2027.  Durbin may have to get lucky with like an injury in front of him or something.  Or get like really really really hot in AAA.

I still view Mayer as an important part of our future.  Maybe downgrade him to " a potentially important part of our future".  Durbin is behind Sogard and IKF on the depth chart to me.

Mayer could have a clear path back later this summer. Just give him June and July in AAA. No harm in it. 

Durbin and IKF are similar skillsets to me. Once Durbin is on the bench, IKF doesn't have a spot. 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Both Mayer and Durbin are having some learning curves, which is not surprising.  Sogard has the hotter bar today, but he is a career .683 OPS hitter for his career and his last 34 PA are most likely just a hot streak.  And I have my doubts Mayer and Durbin will learn to better hit MLB pitching by facing AAA pitching…
 

 

I dont believe the last part.  I think that most 23 yr olds will continue to get better working with hitting coaches.  I dont think it needs to be MLB to improve.  And I think that he will see plenty of MLB level pitches in AAA (and AAA level pitches in MLB).  ALso, did you read yirsandy article? This team is terrible at punishing mistakes.  So maybe some AAA at-bats will help with that.  Lets learn how to crush meatballs before we start dismissing at-bats against the meatball mikes down in aaa.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

DFA Guerrero and call up Ward, if anyone…

are you advocating for 5 bench players?  I like it

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer could have a clear path back later this summer. Just give him June and July in AAA. No harm in it. 

Durbin and IKF are similar skillsets to me. Once Durbin is on the bench, IKF doesn't have a spot. 

who is starting?  In any case, I can agree with this.  This is like that soft sell that I am talking about.  You trade IKF and move Durbin into a bench role.  Why? Durbin is younger and still has pre-arb years and IKF is a pure band-aid.

Right now , with IKFs hot streak at hte plate and ability to cover multiple positions, hes the type of guy that can get you something.  Durbin is just plain selling low and giving away a guy with pre-arb years left who can at least field a position, so of the 2 , I think IKF makes a ton more sense as a "we are not selling.  We are not throwing in the towel.....But we are going to start making some moves around the margins that suggest we're getting close to selling"

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

are you advocating for 5 bench players?  I like it

Not sure how they are fitting another LHB OFer into the mix.