A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How long do we go on before a player is blamed and sent packing?

If it does happen, who it the one?

Story?

Duran?

Maybe start with a lesser piece like IKF?

IKF is the most likely sent packing of those three, but it’s going to be really hard to blame him for anything…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

IKF is the most likely sent packing of those three, but it’s going to be really hard to blame him for anything…

My expectation for offense was very low on IKF, so he's not the big difference maker, especially with his low playing time. Hell, Monasterio has played more.

To me, Durbin offers more hope of recovery than Duran & Story, but that's not to say I think he can hit over .650 for the rest of the season.

Trading Story, even if we pay 90-95% of his contract might be tough.

Trading Duran to someone who thinks they can fix him might be possible, but the return will be meager. It might be worth keeping him and hope he snaps out of it.

[moonslav59]

Another point on dealing away IKF: if Story no longer starting (big if) we might not  really need infield defense on the bench. Durbin is real good on D at 3B and Mayer is fine at 2B. I guess Monasterio at SS could use a defensive replacement late in games, and Sogard does not really fit that mold.

[moonslav59]

Sox Rankings and DRS by position:

C (47 catchers with 140 innings)

16 Wong +1

31 Narvaez -1

_______________

1B 

3 Contreras +4 (1st in OAA at +5)

________________

2B

13 Mayer +1 (7th in OAA at +7)

__________________

3B

1st Durbin +7 (2nd OAA at +4)

___________________

SS

18-24th Story -1 (23rd in OAA at -2)

_____________________

LF

3rd Duran +4 (4th in OAA at +)

_______________________

CF

6th Rafaela +3 (3rd in OAA +4)

_________________________

RF

1st Abreu +11 (The next guy is +6!) 2nd in OAA at +5

_____________________________________

Team

1st in DRS at +11 (STL is at +7 & 3 teams are at +4)

Our team DRS equals the next two teams combined.

We are second in OAA at +4 (HOU is at +6)

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Rankings and DRS by position:

C (47 catchers with 140 innings)

16 Wong +1

31 Narvaez -1

_______________

1B 

3 Contreras +4 (1st in OAA at +5)

________________

2B

13 Mayer +1 (7th in OAA at +7)

__________________

3B

1st Durbin +7 (2nd OAA at +4)

___________________

SS

18-24th Story -1 (23rd in OAA at -2)

_____________________

LF

3rd Duran +4 (4th in OAA at +)

_______________________

CF

6th Rafaela +3 (3rd in OAA +4)

_________________________

RF

1st Abreu +11 (The next guy is +6!) 2nd in OAA at +5

_____________________________________

Team

1st in DRS at +11 (STL is at +7 & 3 teams are at +4)

Our team DRS equals the next two teams combined.

We are second in OAA at +4 (HOU is at +6)

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

Watch: they'll win a couple games 28-2, and their stats will be mid pack.

[notin]

42 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

They can be cashed in for points…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Watch: they'll win a couple games 28-2, and their stats will be mid pack.

It’s a weird team funk.  I mean, the season is over a quarter over and not one hitter has even had a hot streak yet…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a weird team funk.  I mean, the season is over a quarter over and not one hitter has even had a hot streak yet…

Not red hot--True.

The hottest streaks have been 3-4 days long... hardly long enough to call it one.

The best I could find (14+ games)

1.078 Contreras (14 gms: game 7-20)

1.033 Abreu (15 gms: gm 2-16)

.963 Rafaela last 17 games (He had an earlier 10 gm stretch at .970)

.889 Yoshida (first 14 games played)

 

 

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not red hot--True.

The hottest streaks have been 3-4 days long... hardly long enough to call it one.

The best I could find (14+ games)

1.078 Contreras (14 gms: game 7-20)

1.033 Abreu (15 gms: gm 2-16)

.963 Rafaela last 17 games (He had an earlier 10 gm stretch at .970)

.889 Yoshida (first 14 games played)

 

 

Is 8 hits (11 total bases) in 14 games really a hot streak?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another point on dealing away IKF: if Story no longer starting (big if) we might not  really need infield defense on the bench. Durbin is real good on D at 3B and Mayer is fine at 2B. I guess Monasterio at SS could use a defensive replacement late in games, and Sogard does not really fit that mold.

Like tonight.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

There must be a good defensive SS out there who can't hit that's available. Or the Sox could try Mayer at SS.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Yos 8 hits (11 total bases) in 14 games really a hot streak?

That was the closest I could find.

It kinda supports your point.

[moonslav59]

The AL is so bad that the CWS and A's are tied for the 4th best record at 23-22.

Two teams are tied for the last WC slot and are 3 games below .500!

SEA (22-25) and TEX (21-24)

Although the Sox have 6 teams to jump over the reach #6, they are just 2 GB the WC.

We still suck, but the league does, too, so maybe we can become the worst team to ever make the playoffs!

Something to play for!

We are -13 in run differential. 5 teams are worse and 9 better in the AL.

We've played 23 games vs teams at .500 or better (9-14.)

The Yanks have played 9, the CWS 17 and Athletics 18.

The Yanks are 1-8

Athletics 7-11

CWS 6-11

[Hitch]

It's a shame this offence is so anemic as the defence and pitching is great. 

I don't know how we fix the offence. It's going to be difficult (putting it mildly) with the roster and value of our trade options right now.

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The AL is so bad that the CWS and A's are tied for the 4th best record at 23-22.

Two teams are tied for the last WC slot and are 3 games below .500!

SEA (22-25) and TEX (21-24)

Although the Sox have 6 teams to jump over the reach #6, they are just 2 GB the WC.

We still suck, but the league does, too, so maybe we can become the worst team to ever make the playoffs!

Something to play for!

We are -13 in run differential. 5 teams are worse and 9 better in the AL.

We've played 23 games vs teams at .500 or better (9-14.)

The Yanks have played 9, the CWS 17 and Athletics 18.

The Yanks are 1-8

Athletics 7-11

CWS 6-11

This is way beyond laughable trying to put a positive spin on a team that is 7 games under 500. I repeat 7 games under 500 in a year when pretty much the rest of the league sucks too. The fact that the rest of the league is sucking too makes the Red Sox 7 games under 500 worse than it would be in any other normal year. I could care less once again how close the Red Sox are to a wildcard spot when they can’t even get close to being a 500 team, and if you can’t even be a 500 team you suck no matter how you slice it, and dice it. You’re Trying to polish a turd, but the team still STINKS.🤭

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Old Red said:

This is way beyond laughable trying to put a positive spin on a team that is 7 games under 500. I repeat 7 games under 500 in a year when pretty much the rest of the league sucks too. The fact that the rest of the league is sucking too makes the Red Sox 7 games under 500 worse than it would be in any other normal year. I could care less once again how close the Red Sox are to a wildcard spot when they can’t even get close to being a 500 team, and if you can’t even be a 500 team you suck no matter how you slice it, and dice it. You’re Trying to polish a turd, but the team still STINKS.🤭

And you thought Old Red was inhuman because he hates passion.  Well, jokes on you.  Turns out he hates optimism, too…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And you thought Old Red was inhuman because he hates passion.  Well, jokes on you.  Turns out he hates optimism, too…

I said the team sucks. I'm not optimistic we stop sucking, but making the playoffs is a possible and something that could happen.

There is no glory in maybe being the worst team to make the playoffs.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

It's a shame this offence is so anemic as the defence and pitching is great. 

I don't know how we fix the offence. It's going to be difficult (putting it mildly) with the roster and value of our trade options right now.

IMHO, there are always no shortages of trade targets.  The issue is that other GMs know we are desperate, and won't mind holding out their best targets until the trade deadline.  At most, Chapman is $45M/3 and Adames maybe $100M/4.  SF would owe us maybe $150M.  And I find it hard to believe that their GM (or any) would admit to that level of mistakes.  They should, but that's unusual.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I said the team sucks. I'm not optimistic we stop sucking, but making the playoffs is a possible and something that could happen.

There is no glory in maybe being the worst team to make the playoffs.

To me the best policy is being realistic. Fans with bags over their heads at Fenway, and a plane circling Fenway trailing a banner that reads fire LOWbrez, and sell the team is more in line with the thinking, and feeling in RSN, and there is a lot more of them kind of fans from what I have heard than trying to be optimistic, and passion is in the bag heads not like the small contingent on here. Of course if you don’t go out much off from here you wouldn’t know that whether you want to, or not.

[moonslav59]

Last year, we were 23-25 on May 18th, ironically right after playing the Braves. This year, we have one more loss and 4 less wins. While I see not even one hint that this team can and will turn it around, we weren't all that hopeful last May, either.

In 2025, we were 4 games under .500 on May 31st and also on June 9th. No, I'm not projecting an 8 out of 9 game winning streak, this June 10th. As well as things looked after that stretch, we dipped to 43-45 on July 2nd. No, I'm not projecting a 10  game win streak like we had starting July 3rd not a 7 game streak later that month, but the plus side is that we play crappier teams, this year.

We ended the 2025 season 16 games over .500. We basically played way under .500 ball for the whole season, other than those three stretches of 25-2.

Again, there are no hints we can have 2-3 stretches like that, but baseball has a history of teams that turn their seasons around- for the good or bad.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

To me the best policy is being realistic. Fans with bags over their heads at Fenway, and a plane circling Fenway trailing a banner that reads fire LOWbrez, and sell the team is more in line with the thinking, and feeling in RSN, and there is a lot more of them kind of fans from what I have heard than trying to be optimistic, and passion is in the bag heads not like the small contingent on here. Of course if you don’t go out much off from here you wouldn’t know that whether you want to, or not.

Only if you’re arrogant enough to believe your opinion equates to realism.  Or thinking majority fan opinion equates to being realistic.

To me, anyone paying for a plane flight complete with messaged banner because they do not like how a professional sports team is run might not be the epitome of realistic.

Want something realistic?  It’s far, far more likely that the Sox turn it around and win the AL East this season than it is that Henry sells the team.  Thats a realistic fact, because Henry ain’t selling’…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Only if you’re arrogant enough to believe your opinion equates to realism.  Or thinking majority fan opinion equates to being realistic.

To me, anyone paying for a plane flight complete with messaged banner because they do not like how a professional sports team is run might not be the epitome of realistic.

Want something realistic?  It’s far, far more likely that the Sox turn it around and win the AL East this season than it is that Henry sells the team.  Thats a realistic fact, because Henry ain’t selling’…

LMAO.

The thing is, I'm not even close to being optimistic, but I haven't given up, yet.

If I do give up, Ole Red will bash me for that, too.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LMAO.

The thing is, I'm not even close to being optimistic, but I haven't given up, yet.

If I do give up, Ole Red will bash me for that, too.

Amazing you put me on ignore for the 10th time, and then answer through other posters, and give me shoutouts. Play it how you want, but all I’m saying is that there are a lot more bagheads out there than ones shouting Masa for Mayor. There are a lot more Fred’s out there than there are on here, and even more Drew’s for that matter who have a hard time rooting for the Red Sox, but also rooting for Brez, and JH to fail. Bashing you for giving up before the Red Sox have been mathematically eliminated for a second time for someone who’s a self proclaimed super fan would be unthinkable IMO.👋

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox next games:

ATL Today (Bello)

3 @ KCR (Gray, Suarez & Early)

day off

3 v MIN (Tolle, Bello or Gray, Gray or Suarez)

3 v ATL

3 @ CLE

day off

3 v BAL

3 @ NYY

3 @ TBR

day off on June 11th

[JoeBrady]

39 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There are a lot more Fred’s out there than there are on here,

Fred called the 2007 RS the biggest chokers in history.  No one is going to take him seriously,

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Fred called the 2007 RS the biggest chokers in history.  No one is going to take him seriously,

It’s not a question of taking Fred seriously, or not, but the POINT being there are a lot more Red Sox fans out there than what there are on here that I have heard who call the Red Sox worse than flops, and are more to Fred’s way of thinking. Also so far Fred has been more right with his predictions than most of the others on here.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s not a question of taking Fred seriously, or not, but the POINT being there are a lot more Red Sox fans out there than what there are on here that I have heard who call the Red Sox worse than flops, and are more to Fred’s way of thinking. Also so far Fred has been more right with his predictions than most of the others on here.

There are also more Sox fans who think they know how to run a Major League Baseball team than actually can, too.

And you’re being very selective with Fred’s predictions, excluding the blatantly wrong stuff as well has the needs.  
 

Plenty of people call the Sox flops every off-season, regardless of what the Sox actually do.  That makes them cynics, not prophets…
 

 

[JoeBrady]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s not a question of taking Fred seriously, or not, but the POINT being there are a lot more Red Sox fans out there than what there are on here that I have heard who call the Red Sox worse than flops, and are more to Fred’s way of thinking. Also so far Fred has been more right with his predictions than most of the others on here.

1-There is no doubt that there are plenty of RS fans unhappy with our record.

2-There is no doubt that henry and the FO are aware of this.

3-There is no doubt that the FO gives 2 seconds of thought about what the average fan thinks are the best moves.  Just think about all the suggestions we've seen in here.  We would have Bregman, Alonso, Marte, and Bichette, instead of Durbin, Contreras, Suarez and Gray.

We'd be on the hook for a billion $$$ worth of contracts and have a worse record than we do now.  Now I have to go and send my SpaceX suggestions to Elon Musk.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

There are also more Sox fans who think they know how to run a Major League Baseball team than actually can, too.

And you’re being very selective with Fred’s predictions, excluding the blatantly wrong stuff as well has the needs.  
 

Plenty of people call the Sox flops every off-season, regardless of what the Sox actually do.  That makes them cynics, not prophets…
 

 

For decades Sox fans were trained to expect flopping. It became the expectation.

How many of us thought we'd win in 2004? I can guess zero when down 3-0 to the Yanks.

Virtually nobody was optimistic going into 2013.

The 2016-2018 era was different, and we all yearn for that situation, again. We don't see that situation as being close at hand, and we haven't since maybe they start of 2019. The 2021 season was really just a blip, and we still had enough remnants from the glory era to get us close.

We seem to have a decent foundation but lack some serious star power, especially with power bats that we have a long history of getting us over the hump. It doesn't look pretty.