A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How long do we go on before a player is blamed and sent packing?

If it does happen, who it the one?

Story?

Duran?

Maybe start with a lesser piece like IKF?

IKF is the most likely sent packing of those three, but it’s going to be really hard to blame him for anything…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

IKF is the most likely sent packing of those three, but it’s going to be really hard to blame him for anything…

My expectation for offense was very low on IKF, so he's not the big difference maker, especially with his low playing time. Hell, Monasterio has played more.

To me, Durbin offers more hope of recovery than Duran & Story, but that's not to say I think he can hit over .650 for the rest of the season.

Trading Story, even if we pay 90-95% of his contract might be tough.

Trading Duran to someone who thinks they can fix him might be possible, but the return will be meager. It might be worth keeping him and hope he snaps out of it.

[moonslav59]

Another point on dealing away IKF: if Story no longer starting (big if) we might not  really need infield defense on the bench. Durbin is real good on D at 3B and Mayer is fine at 2B. I guess Monasterio at SS could use a defensive replacement late in games, and Sogard does not really fit that mold.

[moonslav59]

Sox Rankings and DRS by position:

C (47 catchers with 140 innings)

16 Wong +1

31 Narvaez -1

_______________

1B 

3 Contreras +4 (1st in OAA at +5)

________________

2B

13 Mayer +1 (7th in OAA at +7)

__________________

3B

1st Durbin +7 (2nd OAA at +4)

___________________

SS

18-24th Story -1 (23rd in OAA at -2)

_____________________

LF

3rd Duran +4 (4th in OAA at +)

_______________________

CF

6th Rafaela +3 (3rd in OAA +4)

_________________________

RF

1st Abreu +11 (The next guy is +6!) 2nd in OAA at +5

_____________________________________

Team

1st in DRS at +11 (STL is at +7 & 3 teams are at +4)

Our team DRS equals the next two teams combined.

We are second in OAA at +4 (HOU is at +6)

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Rankings and DRS by position:

C (47 catchers with 140 innings)

16 Wong +1

31 Narvaez -1

_______________

1B 

3 Contreras +4 (1st in OAA at +5)

________________

2B

13 Mayer +1 (7th in OAA at +7)

__________________

3B

1st Durbin +7 (2nd OAA at +4)

___________________

SS

18-24th Story -1 (23rd in OAA at -2)

_____________________

LF

3rd Duran +4 (4th in OAA at +)

_______________________

CF

6th Rafaela +3 (3rd in OAA +4)

_________________________

RF

1st Abreu +11 (The next guy is +6!) 2nd in OAA at +5

_____________________________________

Team

1st in DRS at +11 (STL is at +7 & 3 teams are at +4)

Our team DRS equals the next two teams combined.

We are second in OAA at +4 (HOU is at +6)

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

Watch: they'll win a couple games 28-2, and their stats will be mid pack.

[notin]

42 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Problem is they also near the top in ORS (Offensive Runs Saved).  What they are saving them for I have no idea.

They can be cashed in for points…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Watch: they'll win a couple games 28-2, and their stats will be mid pack.

It’s a weird team funk.  I mean, the season is over a quarter over and not one hitter has even had a hot streak yet…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a weird team funk.  I mean, the season is over a quarter over and not one hitter has even had a hot streak yet…

Not red hot--True.

The hottest streaks have been 3-4 days long... hardly long enough to call it one.

The best I could find (14+ games)

1.078 Contreras (14 gms: game 7-20)

1.033 Abreu (15 gms: gm 2-16)

.963 Rafaela last 17 games (He had an earlier 10 gm stretch at .970)

.889 Yoshida (first 14 games played)

 

 

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not red hot--True.

The hottest streaks have been 3-4 days long... hardly long enough to call it one.

The best I could find (14+ games)

1.078 Contreras (14 gms: game 7-20)

1.033 Abreu (15 gms: gm 2-16)

.963 Rafaela last 17 games (He had an earlier 10 gm stretch at .970)

.889 Yoshida (first 14 games played)

 

 

Is 8 hits (11 total bases) in 14 games really a hot streak?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another point on dealing away IKF: if Story no longer starting (big if) we might not  really need infield defense on the bench. Durbin is real good on D at 3B and Mayer is fine at 2B. I guess Monasterio at SS could use a defensive replacement late in games, and Sogard does not really fit that mold.

Like tonight.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

There must be a good defensive SS out there who can't hit that's available. Or the Sox could try Mayer at SS.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Yos 8 hits (11 total bases) in 14 games really a hot streak?

That was the closest I could find.

It kinda supports your point.

[moonslav59]

The AL is so bad that the CWS and A's are tied for the 4th best record at 23-22.

Two teams are tied for the last WC slot and are 3 games below .500!

SEA (22-25) and TEX (21-24)

Although the Sox have 6 teams to jump over the reach #6, they are just 2 GB the WC.

We still suck, but the league does, too, so maybe we can become the worst team to ever make the playoffs!

Something to play for!

We are -13 in run differential. 5 teams are worse and 9 better in the AL.

We've played 23 games vs teams at .500 or better (9-14.)

The Yanks have played 9, the CWS 17 and Athletics 18.

The Yanks are 1-8

Athletics 7-11

CWS 6-11

[Hitch]

It's a shame this offence is so anemic as the defence and pitching is great. 

I don't know how we fix the offence. It's going to be difficult (putting it mildly) with the roster and value of our trade options right now.

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The AL is so bad that the CWS and A's are tied for the 4th best record at 23-22.

Two teams are tied for the last WC slot and are 3 games below .500!

SEA (22-25) and TEX (21-24)

Although the Sox have 6 teams to jump over the reach #6, they are just 2 GB the WC.

We still suck, but the league does, too, so maybe we can become the worst team to ever make the playoffs!

Something to play for!

We are -13 in run differential. 5 teams are worse and 9 better in the AL.

We've played 23 games vs teams at .500 or better (9-14.)

The Yanks have played 9, the CWS 17 and Athletics 18.

The Yanks are 1-8

Athletics 7-11

CWS 6-11

This is way beyond laughable trying to put a positive spin on a team that is 7 games under 500. I repeat 7 games under 500 in a year when pretty much the rest of the league sucks too. The fact that the rest of the league is sucking too makes the Red Sox 7 games under 500 worse than it would be in any other normal year. I could care less once again how close the Red Sox are to a wildcard spot when they can’t even get close to being a 500 team, and if you can’t even be a 500 team you suck no matter how you slice it, and dice it. You’re Trying to polish a turd, but the team still STINKS.🤭

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Old Red said:

This is way beyond laughable trying to put a positive spin on a team that is 7 games under 500. I repeat 7 games under 500 in a year when pretty much the rest of the league sucks too. The fact that the rest of the league is sucking too makes the Red Sox 7 games under 500 worse than it would be in any other normal year. I could care less once again how close the Red Sox are to a wildcard spot when they can’t even get close to being a 500 team, and if you can’t even be a 500 team you suck no matter how you slice it, and dice it. You’re Trying to polish a turd, but the team still STINKS.🤭

And you thought Old Red was inhuman because he hates passion.  Well, jokes on you.  Turns out he hates optimism, too…