A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Hoerner has already signed an extension.  Matt Shaw is prime trade bait since he’s relegated to a UIF role right now.  Not the best use of a first round pick.  The only reason the Cubs are holding is probably related to having no needs.  Going 18-3 in their last 21 games has erased a few weaknesses.

Neto is not getting  traded.  The Angels’ asking price might be something like Tolle plus Early.  I’m out.

McLain has dropped off significantly since his impressive rookie year.  Hes probably attainable, but does he fix anything?

Our sister site "North Side Baseball" seems to agree with you that Matt Shaw is just waiting to be traded now that Hoerner has signed his extension. The Cubs need another arm for the starting rotation FWIW.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Our sister site "North Side Baseball" seems to agree with you that Matt Shaw is just waiting to be traded now that Hoerner has signed his extension. The Cubs need another arm for the starting rotation FWIW.

Thats probably their biggest need, since they are experiencing a rash of SP injuries that just added Boyd to the IL yesterday.  Horton is done for the year and Steele has had setbacks.  While both Boyd and Steele might return at some point, someone else is likely to go down by then.   They’re loaded with MLB-ready bats, but not so much for SP…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Hoerner has already signed an extension.  Matt Shaw is prime trade bait since he’s relegated to a UIF for the next few seasons. Not the best use of a first round pick.  The only reason the Cubs are holding is probably related to having no needs.  Going 18-3 in their last 21 games has erased a few weaknesses.

Neto is not getting  traded.  The Angels’ asking price might be something like Tolle plus Early.  I’m out.

McLain has dropped off significantly since his impressive rookie year.  Hes probably attainable, but does he fix anything?

Yes to all of this, but these were guys mentioned that are young enough for Joe to maybe have considered.

In hindsight, trading for Hoerner and extending him might have been our best choice. I agree that Neto as an almost impossible get.

Paredes or matthews might have been the most "gettable," but apparently HOU did not want Duran badly enough, or Brez valued Duran too much to get a deal done.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Our sister site "North Side Baseball" seems to agree with you that Matt Shaw is just waiting to be traded now that Hoerner has signed his extension. The Cubs need another arm for the starting rotation FWIW.

Shaw has been used mostly in the OF (112 innings) in 2026. He's played 3B 26 innings and 1B for 10 innings.

In 2025 it was 1010 innings at 3B and 6 at 2B.

Would the CHC take Duran for Shaw, now? Would we have to add a Phillips or Holobetz or more?

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Thats probably their biggest need, since they are experiencing a rash of SP injuries that just added Boyd to the IL yesterday.  Horton is done for the year and Steele has had setbacks.  While both Boyd and Steele might return at some point, someone else is likely to go down by then.   They’re loaded with MLB-ready bats, but not so much for SP…

Durbin and Gray

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes to all of this, but these were guys mentioned that are young enough for Joe to maybe have considered.

In hindsight, trading for Hoerner and extending him might have been our best choice. I agree that Neto as an almost impossible get.

Paredes or matthews might have been the most "gettable," but apparently HOU did not want Duran badly enough, or Brez valued Duran too much to get a deal done.

At this point, I don't see HOU doing a Duran for Paredes swap as it doesn't solve their issue. They would want to trade Paredes for prospects and build back better. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Shaw has been used mostly in the OF (112 innings) in 2026. He's played 3B 26 innings and 1B for 10 innings.

In 2025 it was 1010 innings at 3B and 6 at 2B.

Would the CHC take Duran for Shaw, now? Would we have to add a Phillips or Holobetz or more?

They'd be crazy to do Duran for Shaw. I think they'd want more than underperforming Phillips or lower ranked Holobetz. 

[Duran Is The Man]

you guys want Shaw....really? we've already got one Durbin. why have two?

[notin]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Durbin and Gray

I don’t think Hoyer makes that trade at gunpoint…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you guys want Shaw....really? we've already got a Durbin. why have two?

Shaw is a much better hitter. I'm not saying I want him as a Red Sox. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

I don’t think Hoyer makes that trade at gunpoint…

Can I interest them in a moon potpourri of c level prospects to throw in? 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'd be crazy to do Duran for Shaw. I think they'd want more than underperforming Phillips or lower ranked Holobetz. 

BTV suggests a fair package for Shaw is Early straight up, or Bello plus Witherspoon.

It also suggests Bello plus Durbin is a “minor overpay”, but it doesn’t matter since Durbin probably has very little appeal to the Cubs.

I don’t mind giving up Bello.  But I doubt he’s enough and this further clogs the Sox up with position players and does deplete pitching depth badly.  Maybe if Chicago included the ironically named Luke Little?  

Or ignore BTV.  Bello for Shaw straight up…

 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Can I interest them in a moon potpourri of c level prospects to throw in? 

Since you called it a potpourri, who could say no?

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'd be crazy to do Duran for Shaw. I think they'd want more than underperforming Phillips or lower ranked Holobetz. 

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Can I interest them in a moon potpourri of c level prospects to throw in? 

YRod, Romero & Uberstine?

LOL

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Or ignore BTV.  Bello for Shaw straight up…

It's a shame it had to be done. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

My random thought of the day is I'm so thankful for Aroldis Chapman.  We got blind lucky that Boston was the stop he made where he re-discovered the strike zone and became a bad ass again.  He is so fun to watch.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

My random thought of the day is I'm so thankful for Aroldis Chapman.  We got blind lucky that Boston was the stop he made where he re-discovered the strike zone and became a bad ass again.  He is so fun to watch.  

It is rather stunning.

He had a career 4.7 BB/9 before BOS, 5.4 from 2019 to 2024 and 6.0 from 2021-2024. 

It was 6.4 the year before BOS!

It's been 2.2 with the Sox

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is rather stunning.

He had a career 4.7 BB/9 before BOS, 5.4 from 2019 to 2024 and 6.0 from 2021-2024. 

It was 6.4 the year before BOS!

It's been 2.2 with the Sox

I saw that as I was looking up the spelling of his first name.  LOL.  We got blind lucky and should all appreciate that, we need some good news around here.  

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

REAL aging starts at 45. 

And final aging starts at 70, I can say now speaking from experience.  

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I saw that as I was looking up the spelling of his first name.  LOL.  We got blind lucky and should all appreciate that, we need some good news around here.  

There's so much blind luck in baseball.  For example we likely wouldn't have won in 2013 if Koji didn't have a spell of pitching like a god for 4 months or however long it was.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's so much blind luck in baseball.  For example we likely wouldn't have won in 2013 if Koji didn't have a spell of pitching like a god for 4 months or however long it was.

Other than perhaps hockey there is more luck in baseball than any other sport.  Willie McCovey hit a bullet that should have won the World Series. He hit it right to Bobby Richardson.  That was blind luck.  We see hard hit balls caught and bloops fall in every single game.  

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I saw that as I was looking up the spelling of his first name.  LOL.  We got blind lucky and should all appreciate that, we need some good news around here.  

I will point out that we call it lucky when Brez strikes gold, but he sucks when a deal goes badly.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I will point out that we call it lucky when Brez strikes gold, but he sucks when a deal goes badly.

You gotta admit what happened with Chapman was lucky.  The team never saw this coming, few did.  

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

You gotta admit what happened with Chapman was lucky.  The team never saw this coming, few did.  

I was surprised, for sure.

I'm also surprised Durbin has been this bad, Oviedo got hurt, Sandoval wont pitch even 1 inning with us and more.

I'm surprised Devers has sucked, and yet that deal is still unliked by some.

Was it lucky we passed on Alonso & Bichette?

IMO, we lucked out not signing Bregman.

 

[mvp 78]

Things Breslow was lucky on:

Eyanson falling in the draft

Chapman taking the advice to throw the ball in the zone and just doing it

The Romy Gonzalez experience

Narvaez turning into a starting catcher, not just a backup

Nate Lowe getting DFA'd then turning his season around with the Sox

 

Things Breslow was unlucky on: 

Casas's career falling apart

'26 Sox forgetting how to hit the ball hard in April

'26 Sox forgetting how to hit with runners on

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Things Breslow was lucky on:

Eyanson falling in the draft

Chapman taking the advice to throw the ball in the zone and just doing it

The Romy Gonzalez experience

Narvaez turning into a starting catcher, not just a backup

Nate Lowe getting DFA'd then turning his season around with the Sox

 

Things Breslow was unlucky on: 

Casas's career falling apart

'26 Sox forgetting how to hit the ball hard in April

'26 Sox forgetting how to hit with runners on

No Refsnyder in your "lucky" column?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No Refsnyder in your "lucky" column?

Refsnyder was signed by Bloom, right? I don't see a big explosion under Brez. 

Romy was brought in under Brez. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Refsnyder was signed by Bloom, right? I don't see a big explosion under Brez. 

Romy was brought in under Brez. 

Brez did bring Ref back, but yes, Bloom gets the finder's fee.

Brez has not done too well with the "gems in the rough" as I used to say about what Bloom was supposed to be good at finding.

Narvaez looked like one, last year. Some pitchers like Slaten, Criswell and others were cheap finds, but Romy does look like the best Brez example.

[moonslav59]

Much of Brez's draft picks are TBD, as expected, and some have already been used in trades.

2024:

12 Montgomery (traded with others for Crochet)

50 Tolle (already in the rotation)

148 Clarke (Part of Sonny Gray trade)

177 Aita (Part of Contreras trade)

237 Cason (still has some promise)

297 Futrell (has eye-popping numbers, this season)

2025:

15 Witherspoon (ranked highly by sps.com)

33 Phillips (Comp pick as part of Preister trade)

75 Godbout (sort of busting out)

87 Eyanson (looks like a steal from 3rd rd)

Some under-the-radar moves:

Romy of waivers ('24)

Ryan Ammons for Rule 5 Slaten

Santos & Robertson for O'Neill

Verdugo for Weissert and Fitts (later traded as part of Contreras trade)

E R-C for Narvaez

Booser for Fajardo (later part of Contreras trade)

Schreiber for Sandlin (later used to dump Hicks)

Gasper for Moran (later got Gasper back)

Jh Garcia & Travieso for Samaniego & Oviedo

Signed Nate Lowe mid season '25

Jordan for Matz

Signed Criswell ('24) Chapman ('25 kinda in radar) Wilson ('25) Newcomb (then traded away)

I probably missed some and called some no so under-the -radar as such.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez did bring Ref back, but yes, Bloom gets the finder's fee.

Brez has not done too well with the "gems in the rough" as I used to say about what Bloom was supposed to be good at finding.

Narvaez looked like one, last year. Some pitchers like Slaten, Criswell and others were cheap finds, but Romy does look like the best Brez example.

Brez has seemed to do a lot more wheeling and dealing than Bloom did so it was hard to add a lot of guys to the lucky pile TBH. I considered someone like Slaten, but he's dealt with a lot of injuries and that was really a targeted acquisition. 

Maybe Justin Wilson was a little bit lucky? 

IDK. 

I also don't want to say he's unlucky for bringing some of the schlubs in that he dumped on this fanbase that many of us questioned ahead of time. 

Bloom did a great job of churning the bottom of that 40 man. Brez hasn't done it so much. Maybe a guy like Gamboa or Guerrero makes a difference at some point? Hasn't happened yet though.