A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And by now, Red Sox fans should know better: will any savings lead them to offer or acquire a longterm contract for another free agent All-Star position player?

Passing on Bregman resulted in us acquiring Suarez & Durbin.  Things could change, but right now, I'd much rather have Suarez & Durbin.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Passing on Bregman resulted in us acquiring Suarez & Durbin.  Things could change, but right now, I'd much rather have Suarez & Durbin.

Me2, and I did at the time, too.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Uberstine in on the IL, too.

Crawford & Sandoval may never come back.

I think it will be Gray coming off the IL first, but until then pen games or Rivera/Anderson.

Why would they need to go to bullpen games (always a bad idea) or Anderson?  They have 5 pitchers in the rotation now.

While no one might like him, Bello has been neither demoted nor injured and will take his turn into the rotation very likely until 2 pitchers return from IL at a minimum…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Why would they need to go to bullpen games (always a bad idea) or Anderson?  They have 5 pitchers in the rotation now.

I was responding to a poster who suggested who might replace Bello.

[RedneckRedSoxFan]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I was responding to a poster who suggested who might replace Bello.

In my original post I had Bello demoted. Honestly, I don't think he's a starting pitcher. I didn't understand why he automatically was in the rotation in spring training, either. 

I think he's only gone one game this season to 5 innings...out of 6 games? I think more than that if you go into September of last year. I wonder what other teams would be ok with this without making a move?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

In my original post I had Bello demoted. Honestly, I don't think he's a starting pitcher. I didn't understand why he automatically was in the rotation in spring training, either. 

I think he's only gone one game this season to 5 innings...out of 6 games? I think more than that if you go into September of last year. I wonder what other teams would be ok with this without making a move?

I understood your thoughtful post and am very close to thinking Bello should be demoted to work it out.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I understood your thoughtful post and am very close to thinking Bello should be demoted to work it out.

You mean Bailey The Magician can’t straighten him out?🤔

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You mean Bailey The Magician can’t straighten him out?🤔

Obviously not through this struggle.

Often times, like with Crochet, you see an IL stint coming.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Obviously not through this struggle.

Often times, like with Crochet, you see an IL stint coming.

Maybe, but with Bello it’s hard to tell, and it could be more psychological than his arm.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Maybe, but with Bello it’s hard to tell, and it could be more psychological than his arm.

True.

We may never know.

[moonslav59]

How about most our young pitcher numbers?

0.00 Samaniego (8.1 IP 4H 0ER 4BB 8K)

0.00 E Rivera (3.1, 1, 0, 0, 3)

1.80 Bennett (5.0, 5, 1, 2, 3)

2.84 Early (31.2, 24, 10, 14, 28)

3.38 Tolle (10.2, 6, 4, 5, 15)

3.38 Uberstine (2.2, 3, 1, 1, 2)

Total: 2.33 ERA

61.2 IP 41 Hits 16 ERs 26BB 69Ks

3.8 BB/9 is scary

10.1 K/9 is nice

6 Hits per 9 IP is very nice.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Passing on Bregman resulted in us acquiring Suarez & Durbin.  Things could change, but right now, I'd much rather have Suarez & Durbin.

My post was solely about position players -- guys who play every day for six months, not once a week.

But Brez says he's glad you drank the Coolaid and pivoted to his pivot. And now you get to hope Sox starting pitchers throw shutouts every night...

... or at least don't leave the mound with runners on base and Weissert taking the ball.

[notin]

12 hours ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

In my original post I had Bello demoted. Honestly, I don't think he's a starting pitcher. I didn't understand why he automatically was in the rotation in spring training, either. 

I think he's only gone one game this season to 5 innings...out of 6 games? I think more than that if you go into September of last year. I wonder what other teams would be ok with this without making a move?

Maybe because he finished 9th in the American League in ERA last year…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My post was solely about position players -- guys who play every day for six months, not once a week.

But Brez says he's glad you drank the Coolaid and pivoted to his pivot. And now you get to hope Sox starting pitchers throw shutouts every night...

... or at least don't leave the mound with runners on base and Weissert taking the ball.

If the only choices are Bregman, Suarez and Durbin in some combination, only one of those 3 is doing anything right now.  If the Sox had Bregman and his 0.7 bWAR, would they really be that much better than they are with Durbin and his 0.4 bWAR?

The Sox might be 13.3-18.7 right now, instead of 13-19…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

If the only choices are Bregman, Suarez and Durbin in some combination, only one of those 3 is doing anything right now.  If the Sox had Bregman and his 0.7 bWAR, would they really be that much better than they are with Durbin and his 0.4 bWAR?

The Sox might be 13.3-18.7 right now, instead of 13-19…

Again, over and over with the stats of a bygone Sox player toiling elsewhere.

And once again, we have no idea how that same player this year would be performing -- better or worse -- if he remained in the heart of the order in Boston. In Fenway Park. In the AL East...

... or how guys like Anthony would be faring if he wasn't billed as THE face, arms and legs of the franchise, but instead had with the same protection in the line-up and same veteran presence in the batting cages of the guy whose locker he was stationed next to in the clubhouse last season.

Or if that guy would be traded or DFAed by now for standing up for Fatse.

[notin]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Again, over and over with the stats of a bygone Sox player toiling elsewhere.

And once again, we have no idea how that same player this year would be performing -- better or worse -- if he remained in the heart of the order in Boston. In Fenway Park. In the AL East...

... or how guys like Anthony would be faring if he wasn't billed as THE face, arms and legs of the franchise, but instead had with the same protection in the line-up and same veteran presence in the batting cages of the guy whose locker he was stationed next to in the clubhouse last season.

Or if that guy would be traded or DFAed by now for standing up for Fatse.

Yes, it’s terrible to be hit with the only actual facts when there are literally thousands of suppositions we can cling to that lead to better made up scenarios.

I mean, those real life “toiling elsewhere” scenarios are valid for players who have moved on (or been moved) and are succeeding.  Where is the “but we don’t know if he stayed” logic then?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Yes, it’s terrible to be hit with the only actual facts when there are literally thousands of suppositions we can cling to that lead to better made up scenarios.

I mean, those real life “toiling elsewhere” scenarios are valid for players who have moved on (or been moved) and are succeeding.  Where is the “but we don’t know if he stayed” logic then?

Right, Anthony has had no issues this year being served curveballs in the dirt every at bat because there's no reason to throw him a pitch he can actually reach with K-king Story directly behind him in the batting order instead of Bregman.

And there's no logic to consider factors that new players have to adjust to when they change teams like new pitchers, new ballparks, new umpires, new time zones, menus, language, groupies -- all that matters are stats.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right, Anthony has had no issues this year being served curveballs in the dirt every at bat because there's no reason to throw him a pitch he can actually reach with K-king Story directly behind him in the batting order instead of Bregman.

And there's no logic to consider factors that new players have to adjust to when they change teams like new pitchers, new ballparks, new umpires, new time zones, menus, language, groupies -- all that matters are stats.

Anthony isn’t chasing curveballs in the dirt because Story was batting behind him instead of Bregman.

And if Bregman needs a chance to make all those adjustments, why isn’t the same courtesy extended to Durbin?

Im not even a Durbin fan.  He’s a borderline starting middle infielder in my book, and possibly not even the best one acquired in that trade.  But why is Bregman suddenly the panacea?  He was good (not great) in limited action last year, and he is more likely than not to decline at a Story-esque pace before that contract is through.  And if you do not like the budget limitations Henry has put on this team, will you like them more while Bregman, who has not been an elite player for 8 years now, eats up a bigger chunk of that budget as he spirals past mediocrity?

His unquantifiable coaching help was probably a bigger statement about the Sox thankfully departed coaching staff.

Dialing back, Durbin is definitively better than Monasterio.  Probably not the highest praise he has ever received…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Anthony isn’t chasing curveballs in the dirt because Story was batting behind him instead of Bregman.

And if Bregman needs a chance to make all those adjustments, why isn’t the same courtesy extended to Durbin?

Im not even a Durbin fan.  He’s a borderline starting middle infielder in my book, and possibly not even the best one acquired in that trade.  But why is Bregman suddenly the panacea?  He was good (not great) in limited action last year, and he is more likely than not to decline at a Story-esque pace before that contract is through.  And if you do not like the budget limitations Henry has put on this team, will you like them more while Bregman, who has not been an elite player for 8 years now, eats up a bigger chunk of that budget as he spirals past mediocrity?

His unquantifiable coaching help was probably a bigger statement about the Sox thankfully departed coaching staff…

I acknowledge it's just hard for some to accept qualitative data that they can't graph or measure with numbers.

And I have nothing against Durbin, an obvious target for other fans who can't appreciate his contributions because his body may not fit the perfect Aryan.

But flashback a year: do you think it was luck that the three All-Stars Breslow acquired in the '25 offseason all made the All-Star team again last summer?

[notin]

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I acknowledge it's just hard for some to accept qualitative data that they can't graph or measure with numbers.

And I have nothing against Durbin, an obvious target for other fans who can't appreciate his contributions because his body may not fit the perfect Aryan.

But flashback a year: do you think it was luck that the three All-Stars Breslow acquired in the '25 offseason all made the All-Star team again last summer?

Exactly what graphs and data from my last post are you claiming I’m clinging to?  If you’re going to start pointing “it’s all just stats to you” finger, at least use it when I use stats.

And that’s an interesting point about his 3 All Stars.  Crochet is pretty young, so no shock.  But Bregman made his first All Star game since 2019 and Chapman made his first since 2021.   You do realize this is turning into pro-Breslow logic, right?  I mean, you’re essentially saying he brought in these players on the downsides of their careers exactly when they were due to bounce back, and did it multiple times.  Either that’s just insanely lucky, or insanely good.  And really, if it’s either one, why are you questioning his decisions and supporting it with third-hand stories?

 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know if Bregman's numbers would be better had he came back to BOS, or what his effect would have been on Anthony and other player's numbers.

I think it's fair to bring up how other highly winter-discussed players are doing so far, if we are using the bad stats of players we did add as a way to criticize Brez & Co.

I, for one am holding back being highly critical of Brez for adding Durbin, when many of the players I suggested we add are crapping themselves at big money levels. Sure, some of my suggested additions are doing well, but some of Brez's adds are too (Contreras, Suarez & Samaniego.)

How many of us wanted us to move on from Wong (.712?)

How many did not trust counting on young arms to fill key roles? While Watson has sucked and Oviedo is on the 60, Early, Tolle, Bennet & Samaniego have helped us in many of our 13 wins.

As bad as we have looked, this year, one thing some of us pointed out last winter has rung true: the rest of the AL teams have serious issues, too. Only 2 AL teams are more than 2 games above .500, (21-11 NYY & 19-12 TBR) and I'm not sure the Rays even make the playoffs this year.

Our best hopes might lie with us having less weaknesses than 10 other AL teams. Currently, 11 teams are withing 4 games of each other and between 17-15 (.531) and 13-19 (.406.)

The current 5th best AL team is 16-16 (TEX.) Whodathunk the Rays (19-12) A's (17-15) Guardians (17-16) & TEX (16-16) would be the other 4 playoff teams with NYY at about the 20% mark of the season? My guess is several, if not all won't make the playoffs.

The next 4 teams all looked more promising in March:

16-17 SEA & DET

15-17 TOR & BAL

These 4 could easily replace the 4 I listed.

The Sox are 2 GB TOR & BAL. They are 2.5 GB SEA & DET. They are 3 GM the last WC slot. Yes, it's way too early to talk WC slot and with 6 other teams between us and Texas, it might be harder than it looks, but all of these teams will go through some tough stretches. We might just need to limit any more like we just went through.

We've won 4 of 6 vs BAL, TOR & HOU. Maybe we can keep this going, despite 4 of our 5 SP'ers being on the IL (Crochet, Gray, Oviedo) or sucking (Bello.)

 

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3.8 BB/9 is scary

10.1 K/9 is nice

The ratio is the key.  2.66 is very good for rookies.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But Brez says he's glad you drank the Coolaid and pivoted to his pivot.

It's about being right or being wrong.  Would you prefer Bregman, or would you prefer Suarez + Durbin?

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The ratio is the key.  2.66 is very good for rookies.

Agreed, but eventually a BB rate like that will come back to bite us in the ass.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's about being right or being wrong.  Would you prefer Bregman, or would you prefer Suarez + Durbin?

Or Alonso vs Suarez & Durbin?

Or Alonso & Bregman vs Contreras, Suarez & Durbin?

Or Alonso & Bichette vs Contreras, Suarez & Durbin?

[moonslav59]

While Jovan Moran has not been great this year, he is currently 6th in IP (18.2)

His 10 BB jumps out, but he's only allowed 10 hits, too. His 4.58 FIP is better than Early's 4.62, Bello's 7.62, Watson's 5.63 and Weissert's 5.57. His 2.41 ERA looks nice, but with RP'ers ERA is not really a good stat.

One interesting factiod: we traded Gasper for him and then got Gapser back via waivers.

[moonslav59]

While some cringe when these numbers are posted over and over, here is an updated list of 2026 OPS:

1.271 Rushing (remember the notin suggestion of Duran for him?)

.974 Max Muncy (not much talk about him)

.973 Nate Lowe (why can't we ever get guys like him?)

.967 Murakami (can't hit fastballs)

.955 Donovan (a Cardinal we didn't trade for)

.941 CJ Abrams (not really available)

.937 Schwarber (make more room for another DH)

.926 Yandy Diaz (was mentioned before Willson trade)

.925 Dom Smith (for real?)

.917 V Grissom (LOL)

.884 Jeffers (this guy can hit)

.872 O'Hearn (another notin mention)

.865 B Lowe (8 HRs)

.861 Willson

.835 Hoerner

.828 Abreu

.812 Andujar

.795 Shaw

________________

.769 Bogey

.767 Dubon

.763 Tristan Gray

.757 Arenado

.751 Hoskins

.745 Paredes

.740 Neto & Seager

.732 Alonso (6 HRs)

.730 Okamoto

.711 Bregman

.710 Betts

.706 Teoscar

.700 Arraez

.696 Realmuto & G Torres

.692 Kyle Tucker & .681 Meidroth

.665 KMarte & .663 E Suarez

.653 O'Neill & .650 Josh Bell

________________________

.644 Vientos & .640 Brice Matthews

.637 DHam & .636 Willi Castro

.631 R Lewis & .624 Matt McLain

.618 Josh Naylor & .614 Chisholm

.613 Moncada

.602 Bichette

.594 W Adames & .579 Stott

.563 Semien & .544 Rengifo

_________________________

.540 DEVERS

.539 E Tovar

.511 Refsnyder & .504 Ozuna

.446 Bohm

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It's about being right or being wrong.  Would you prefer Bregman, or would you prefer Suarez + Durbin?

Bregman, because the team is not as good without him. There's evidence the entire offense is not the same this year because of the huge hole Breslow left in the batting order -- which all of us worried about all winter long, especially after AB signed with the Cubs.

No one can measure the positive effects Bregman had on both the young and veteran hitters in Boston, but we know plenty of them extolled the virtues of Alex's feedback in the cages and reviewing videos. 

Contreras is good, but most of us knew without a doubt the Sox needed two All-Star bats to improve. Is this even debatable? 

Suarez, who I wanted the Sox to sign, was added after the Gray acquisition -- when the rotation was already looking loaded with depth.

Sure, anyone can use hindsight and point to injuries to three starters and setbacks to a few more supposedly returning -- just like lamenting losing Vaughn Grissom because he's hot now... so far (but not Hammy).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, notin said:

You do realize this is turning into pro-Breslow logic, right?  I mean, you’re essentially saying he brought in these players on the downsides of their careers exactly when they were due to bounce back, and did it multiple times.  Either that’s just insanely lucky, or insanely good.  And really, if it’s either one, why are you questioning his decisions and supporting it with third-hand stories?

Third-hand? That must be the one that arranged seashells into 8647 -- which old Red Sox fans recognize immediately as an homage to team Hall of Famer Bruce Hurst. 

In '86 the lefty ace starter wore number 47 when he was about to be named World Series MVP -- until his staff mates blew Game 6. He even outpitched Cy Young MVP Roger Clemens!

But McNamara should've started Oil Can in Game 7 and let him go as long as he could, then brought in Hurst to finish... thus, eliminating the temptation to hand the ball to anyone in the bullpen whose eyes were frozen in the headlights of infamy. Again.

[notin]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Third-hand? That must be the one that arranged seashells into 8647 -- which old Red Sox fans recognize immediately as an homage to team Hall of Famer Bruce Hurst. 

In '86 the lefty ace starter wore number 47 when he was about to be named World Series MVP -- until his staff mates blew Game 6. He even outpitched Cy Young MVP Roger Clemens!

But McNamara should've started Oil Can in Game 7 and let him go as long as he could, then brought in Hurst to finish... thus, eliminating the temptation to hand the ball to anyone in the bullpen whose eyes were frozen in the headlights of infamy. Again.

You knock the 1986 Sox bullpen, but if not for Shag Crawford pitching out of (and in to, but focus on the “out of”) a bases loaded/nobody out jam in the ninth inning of game 5 against the Angels, no one would remember Dave Henderson’s heroics…