A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

You have no idea whether the other 28 teams thought Philly overpaid. They just didn’t want to offer more. The fact is that he and Alonso were the top two HR hitters available on the FA market and Henry was too cheap to outbid the competition for either of them. In fact he’s too cheap to get anyone of significance this offseason. 
I don’t see that changing. They are wasting our window.
Crap owner; crap franchise.

Fred, it's not "a fact he's too cheap to get anyone of significance this off season" based on missing out on the two guys we both felt were the best options.

I'm not sure we do or don't but it's not a fact, yet.

We did spend $35+M on Bregman, last winter- the highest AAV in Sox history, while also paying a pitcher the highest FA AAV since the Price FA signing. The $21M spent on Buehler was in addition to $30M spent on Sandoval and Chapman. Just because Buehler and Sandoval gave us nothing does not mean JH did not allow spending bigly on pitching. That's over $50M spent on pitching without counting the Crochet extension.

I agree with you on this more than I disagree. Our avoidance of large and long deals severely kneecaps us, but the winter is far from over, and if JH allows close to the spending of last winter, we may salvage a winter result.

 

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fred, it's not "a fact he's too cheap to get anyone of significance this off season" based on missing out on the two guys we both felt were the best options.

I'm not sure we do or don't but it's not a fact, yet.

We did spend $35+M on Bregman, last winter- the highest AAV in Sox history, while also paying a pitcher the highest FA AAV since the Price FA signing. The $21M spent on Buehler was in addition to $30M spent on Sandoval and Chapman. Just because Buehler and Sandoval gave us nothing does not mean JH did not allow spending bigly on pitching. That's over $50M spent on pitching without counting the Crochet extension.

I agree with you on this more than I disagree. Our avoidance of large and long deals severely kneecaps us, but the winter is far from over, and if JH allows close to the spending of last winter, we may salvage a winter result.

 

I admit he spent some of his billions last winter. Good for him! He gave Devers’ salary away (along with other expiring deals) so he has so far pocketed nearly all of it, to the detriment of the team. He’s been cutting back for years. The fans have come to expect that he won’t spend anymore. He’s blowing our window up. It’s not just Alonso and Schwarber he won’t pay. It’s anyone else who is expensive. I’m not expecting us to sign anyone of consequence. Just more retreads like Gray.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I admit he spent some of his billions last winter. Good for him! He gave Devers’ salary away (along with other expiring deals) so he has so far pocketed nearly all of it, to the detriment of the team. He’s been cutting back for years. The fans have come to expect that he won’t spend anymore. He’s blowing our window up. It’s not just Alonso and Schwarber he won’t pay. It’s anyone else who is expensive. I’m not expecting us to sign anyone of consequence. Just more retreads like Gray.

I'm not expecting much, either. I think the avoidance of large and long deals is the reality. That severely hampers our chances at getting the best of the best, but I do think there are ways we can still get enough talent to make us a better team than 2025 without long term deals.

We just saw Polanco and M Kelly sign 2 year deals, and I'm pretty sure other will agree to 1 or 2 year deals, but the pickings are small, and of course not are at the level of Alonso & Schwarber and probably not at the next tier either- Bregman, Bichette, Suarez or a trade for Marte.

I'm not thrilled with the M King talk, and word is he's getting $80M/4 ish, so I'm not sure we'll be the winner on that one.

There are ways to add some top talent without JH saying the cost is too high. I'm thinking we can afford trading $7.7M Duran for $19.2M K Marte and then maybe sign Suarez to a 2-3 year deal. I'm not sure that's enough. We'd really need Gray to do better than Gio and way less injuries to expect a significant improvement over 2025.

[moonslav59]

To PHI: Duran ($7.7M) and Crawford ($2.8M)

To MIN: Painter & Sandlin

To BOS: Joe Ryan ($6.1M) Sox "save" $4.5M AAV

_________________________________

To AZ: Mayer, Mullins and Hicks ($12M x 2)

To BOS: KMarte ($18M x 5) Sox add about $8M AAV

________________________________

Sign: Okamoto $16.5M x 4

_______________________________

That's just adding $20M AAV total

Is this doable?

[FredLynn]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not expecting much, either. I think the avoidance of large and long deals is the reality. That severely hampers our chances at getting the best of the best, but I do think there are ways we can still get enough talent to make us a better team than 2025 without long term deals.

We just saw Polanco and M Kelly sign 2 year deals, and I'm pretty sure other will agree to 1 or 2 year deals, but the pickings are small, and of course not are at the level of Alonso & Schwarber and probably not at the next tier either- Bregman, Bichette, Suarez or a trade for Marte.

I'm not thrilled with the M King talk, and word is he's getting $80M/4 ish, so I'm not sure we'll be the winner on that one.

There are ways to add some top talent without JH saying the cost is too high. I'm thinking we can afford trading $7.7M Duran for $19.2M K Marte and then maybe sign Suarez to a 2-3 year deal. I'm not sure that's enough. We'd really need Gray to do better than Gio and way less injuries to expect a significant improvement over 2025.

Like I said, crap franchise, crap owner. The only way we will ever be able to be serious competitors for a ring is if Henry sells the team

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Like I said, crap franchise, crap owner. The only way we will ever be able to be serious competitors for a ring is if Henry sells the team

I'm not convinced.

The team is not crap. If it was, I wouldn't be so pissed about the possibility of the window closing.

I went 30+ years seeing a crap team and owner.

We don't win one ring without JH & Co taking over. There are 29 other teams trying to win. Again, no excuses, the last few years have been a sham, despite building up a top farm team along the way. 

JH has a chance to go all in for this window. Let's see what he does. 

I know pessimism rules in your mind, but it's not over until Yogi says it is.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Like I said, crap franchise, crap owner.

No one in the known universe spends more time criticizing "their team" than you do.

[FredLynn]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No one in the known universe spends more time criticizing "their team" than you do.

Why thank you very very much! I will take that as a compliment!

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not convinced.

The team is not crap. If it was, I wouldn't be so pissed about the possibility of the window closing.

I went 30+ years seeing a crap team and owner.

We don't win one ring without JH & Co taking over. There are 29 other teams trying to win. Again, no excuses, the last few years have been a sham, despite building up a top farm team along the way. 

JH has a chance to go all in for this window. Let's see what he does. 

I know pessimism rules in your mind, but it's not over until Yogi says it is.

You know what he is going to do. The same thing has done for most of the last five years. Dumpster diving.

[harmony]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Pay wall

Did we sign King while I wasn’t looking?

No,

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/red-sox-yankees-orioles-finalists-for-michael-king.html

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, harmony said:

No,

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/red-sox-yankees-orioles-finalists-for-michael-king.html

Strange. When I first clicked on the link I got a pay wall message. Now that I read it it seems that he had a significant nerve injury to his shoulder. If that is fully healed he might be worth a shot, though apparently after he returned from his IL stint he wasn’t very good. The article further says he has a “strong interest” in playing in Boston- as long as their offer is the most lucrative for him (I added the last part)-which it almost certainly will not be.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

No,

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/red-sox-yankees-orioles-finalists-for-michael-king.html

King apparently had impingement of the long thoracic nerve. It causes weakness and pain in the shoulder. While physical therapy can help nerves are notoriously slow to recover-if they ever do. I’d approach signing him with great caution.

[Hitch]

The Alonso deal and the Winter Meetings in particular seems to have broken people's heads. I think the Winter Meetings has a lot to answer for when it comes to the utter insanity with which fans now react to everything. It is the event of the winter and so gives the illusion that it comes with some sort of deadline. You don't have to do anything at the Winter Meetings. In most cases it is better to wait and see what the market offers. Most deals happens outside the meetings.

Take Bregman for example. He is clearly holding out at the moment, and it looks like if we want him back it's at a deal which will make his opt out of $120m over 3 years possibly look a little foolish. Neither Bregman nor Boras is going to want to accept that and so we have to wait until something breaks. There's also the Japanese players that have been posted and their deadlines coming up. This holds the market up, too. 

The one thing that is clear as daylight is that if we went out and 'just make it happen' as some demand, and say signed Bregman to 6 @ $165/180 - when he can't run in three years, and likely can't field either, and we will have a just a decent hitter at best blocking DH on near $30m, the same fans that demanded we go above and beyond to 'just get the deal done' would be bitching about the stupidity of signing him to that deal because nobody, NOBODY, has amnesia around their own demands like a sports fan. 

I wanted Alonso last year. I made several posts saying we should sign him and rotate him and Casas around the DH spot (or just trade Casas for pitching). I would have liked him this year. But $30m x 5 is a huge risk. He is a terrible defender. He turns doubles into singles, his running is so bad. If his bat goes, he is worthless. The idea that we have given up, or are cheap, just because we didn't want to sign a player with that profile is idiocy. Especially as we've see players of his profile turn worthless very quickly and very often.

If we get to ST and the team is still nowhere near what it needs to be, then so be it, bitch away, call the FO cheap, Breslow an idiot, all will be deserved. But to be losing your mind and wailing like a child because we missed out on Pete Alonso, or haven't made all our moves yet - Jesus Christ. Get a grip. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

The Alonso deal and the Winter Meetings in particular seems to have broken people's heads. I think the Winter Meetings has a lot to answer for when it comes to the utter insanity with which fans now react to everything. It is the event of the winter and so gives the illusion that it comes with some sort of deadline. You don't have to do anything at the Winter Meetings. In most cases it is better to wait and see what the market offers. Most deals happens outside the meetings.

Take Bregman for example. He is clearly holding out at the moment, and it looks like if we want him back it's at a deal which will make his opt out of $120m over 3 years possibly look a little foolish. Neither Bregman nor Boras is going to want to accept that and so we have to wait until something breaks. There's also the Japanese players that have been posted and their deadlines coming up. This holds the market up, too. 

The one thing that is clear as daylight is that if we went out and 'just make it happen' as some demand, and say signed Bregman to 6 @ $165/180 - when he can't run in three years, and likely can't field either, and we will have a just a decent hitter at best blocking DH on near $30m, the same fans that demanded we go above and beyond to 'just get the deal done' would be bitching about the stupidity of signing him to that deal because nobody, NOBODY, has amnesia around their own demands like a sports fan. 

I wanted Alonso last year. I made several posts saying we should sign him and rotate him and Casas around the DH spot (or just trade Casas for pitching). I would have liked him this year. But $30m x 5 is a huge risk. He is a terrible defender. He turns doubles into singles, his running is so bad. If his bat goes, he is worthless. The idea that we have given up, or are cheap, just because we didn't want to sign a player with that profile is idiocy. Especially as we've see players of his profile turn worthless very quickly and very often.

If we get to ST and the team is still nowhere near what it needs to be, then so be it, bitch away, call the FO cheap, Breslow an idiot, all will be deserved. But to be losing your mind and wailing like a child because we missed out on Pete Alonso, or haven't made all our moves yet - Jesus Christ. Get a grip. 

That’s one way to look at it. Why would you take a risk on someone like Alonso just because he’s averaged 158 Games played, 39 HR, and 111 RBI the last 5 years, but isn’t a Slick Dick at 1B.🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

NESN's master(click)baiters posted two headlines today about Michael King.

He is purportedly interested in Boston; he went to BC.

But the headline writer really blew it -- how could he not realize the irony?

Red Sox INTEREST KING

[Hitch]

33 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s one way to look at it. Why would you take a risk on someone like Alonso just because he’s averaged 158 Games played, 39 HR, and 111 RBI the last 5 years, but isn’t a Slick Dick at 1B.🤔

Another is that this team hasn't been great defence for a few years and strikes out too much. Alonso helps with neither. Who knows, maybe there is a better way to build the team? And that Alonso wasn't the only answer to this riddle?

Also, he had, what, 3 offers? Why so few? Why did the richest team in the land say "no thanks, we're not even making an offer"? 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

There's also the Japanese players that have been posted and their deadlines coming up.

I hadn't thought about that until reading MLBR this morning, plus your post.  They aren't huge players, but three pretty good players.  And we've heard nothing about them.  Either Okamoto or Imai would fit very well.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

the same fans that demanded we go above and beyond to 'just get the deal done' would be bitching about the stupidity of signing him to that deal because nobody, NOBODY, has amnesia around their own demands like a sports fan. 

There is a real good chance that, in three years, Alonso and/or Bregman are the new Yoshida.  The same fans will be retroactively criticizing the deal, and calling JH cheap if he doesn't commit another $150M to yet another DH in waiting.

[Hitch]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I hadn't thought about that until reading MLBR this morning, plus your post.  They aren't huge players, but three pretty good players.  And we've heard nothing about them.  Either Okamoto or Imai would fit very well.

I'm quite intrigued by Okamoto for sure. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

There is a real good chance that, in three years, Alonso and/or Bregman are the new Yoshida.  The same fans will be retroactively criticizing the deal, and calling JH cheap if he doesn't commit another $150M to yet another DH in waiting.

Yup! And so the cycle continues. 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, FredLynn said:

You know what he is going to do. The same thing has done for most of the last five years. Dumpster diving.

Fred, can you please stop with the last 5 years line. Last winter was not dumpster diving, and it wasn't even close.

I share your concerns and doubts. I don't share in your surety based on a falsehood. You'd do better trying to make your points without repeating the same misinformation over and over.

We trade for and extended a top 5 MLB pitcher. Nothing close to that has happened since 2018 or before. That was so far from a dumpster dive, that this move alone breaks your point into shreds.

We shattered the Devers team record AAV by signing Bregman- not a dumpster dive.

We signed Buehler to the highest AAV for a FA pitcher since Price.

We signed Sandoval to the second largest FA contract (to Gio) since Eovaldi in 2019, and one could view that as an extension or non upgrade signing.

We signed Chapman to $11M, which was a lower AAV than Jansen, but still significant,

The AAV spent on Crochet, Buehler and Sandoval topped $50M. Add Chapman and Wilson, and we spent over $65M on pitching, alone. That number might come close to 2020-2024 combined, if not for the Gio signing.

The Bregman signing on the heels of the Devers extension was not a continuation of the 4-5 years before 2025. No way. No how. Please stop passing over the 2025 spending and trend-breaker.

If we return to the previous trend, I'll be joining you in the condemnation and negative feedback, but let's not rewrite history to make our points.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

NESN's master(click)baiters posted two headlines today about Michael King.

He is purportedly interested in Boston; he went to BC.

But the headline writer really blew it -- how could he not realize the irony?

Red Sox INTEREST KING

King isn't worth the 2nd and 5th round picks they'd lose to sign him. 

[moonslav59]

Chances are we will have some injuries next year, so we can’t be counting on returning players as our saviors or to replace departing players.

Yes, it’s just mid December but with reports about budget limits and no long term deals, it sure feels like another sham winter, to me.

It can change but my hopes are low

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

King isn't worth the 2nd and 5th round picks they'd lose to sign him. 

He's got some nice upside, but so do others that won't cost picks.

[moonslav59]

Still unsigned: (my projection)

Tucker ($440M/11)

Bichette ($220M/8)

Murakami ($200M/8)

Bregman ($170M/6)

F Valdez ($160M/5)

Iami ($150M/6)

Bellinger ($145M/5)

Ra, Suarez ($120M/5)

M King ($84M/4)

Gallen ($80M/4)

Okamoto & Grisham ($70M/4)

E Suarez ($66M/3)

Bassitt ($40M/2)

Giolito & H-S Kim ($35M/2)

Realmuto, N Martinez & Hearns ($30M/2)

Littell   ($25M/2)

L Weaver, Fairbanks & S Dominguez ($20M/2)

Big trade names: K Marte, Paredes, B Lowe, Donovan, Y Diaz, W Contreras, Lodolo, Ryan, Gore, Alcantara, P Lopez, L Castillo, M Keller and others.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

On 12/14/2025 at 6:55 PM, moonslav59 said:

To PHI: Duran ($7.7M) and Crawford ($2.8M)

To MIN: Painter & Sandlin

To BOS: Joe Ryan ($6.1M) Sox "save" $4.5M AAV

IMHO, too much for Ryan.  If I were to give up Duran, Crawford & Sandlin (which I would), I'd go straight for Painter.  After a huge physical.

[JoeBrady]

On 12/14/2025 at 5:54 PM, moonslav59 said:

based on missing out on the two guys we both felt were the best options.

Which is the crux of several of my posts.  It's entirely possible that you and Fred could be right on Alonso.  But if RS sign a slugger like Suarez instead a glove-first player like Kim, I'm not going to call the RS a garbage organization.  There is always the unlikely chance that Breslow knows more about baseball than I do.

[JoeBrady]

On 12/14/2025 at 6:55 PM, moonslav59 said:

To AZ: Mayer, Mullins and Hicks ($12M x 2)

To BOS: KMarte ($18M x 5) Sox add about $8M AAV

________________________________

Sign: Okamoto $16.5M x 4

I probably wouldn't do it, but it is real close.  But that's more of a personal preference than my BB opinion.  And if we added a #2 in a trade, I would take them even over any team in the AL.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMHO, too much for Ryan.  If I were to give up Duran, Crawford & Sandlin (which I would), I'd go straight for Painter.  After a huge physical.

I'd rather have Ryan.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman ($170M/6)

Ra, Suarez ($120M/5)

Okamoto & Grisham ($70M/4)

I think you're high on Bregman.  My guess is that he falls to an affordable $150M/6 with a no-trade and an opt-out after Year 3.  Tie that into your previous post about Marte, add the #2 for Duran, and we are the best team in BB.

I'd be interested in Ranger at that price, though I am curious why DD is not chasing him.  As mentioned earlier, Okamoto for $70M/4 is good, but didn't Grisham accept the QO?