Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

With the addition of Bellinger and Peralta to the NY teams, the fWAR rankings juggled a bit:

54.3 LAD

47.4 NYY, 46.7 NYM, 46.5 TOR

45.4 ATL, 45.0 SEA, 44.2 BOS

43.9 PHI, 43.1 BAL

42.2 HOU, 41.3 CHC, 41.0 SDP, 40.8 KCR, 40.6 DET

39.5 TEX, 39.4 MIL, 38.8 MIN, 38.1 AZ

36.9 TBR, 35.6 CIN, 35.5 ATH

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox projected fWAR ranking by position:

T4th LF 3.0

T7th CF 3.3

8th RF 2.8

13th DH 1.7

The whole infield + Catcher are ranked 14th or lower....

14 1B 2.2

20 2B 2.3

23 Catcher 2.4

23 3B 2.1

27 SS 2.1 (Few are talking about upgrading SS)

Pitching:

1st: 22.3 (LAD 21.8)

1st SP 18.3

5th RP 4.0

[Behindenemylines]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the addition of Bellinger and Peralta to the NY teams, the fWAR rankings juggled a bit:

54.3 LAD

47.4 NYY, 46.7 NYM, 46.5 TOR

45.4 ATL, 45.0 SEA, 44.2 BOS

43.9 PHI, 43.1 BAL

42.2 HOU, 41.3 CHC, 41.0 SDP, 40.8 KCR, 40.6 DET

39.5 TEX, 39.4 MIL, 38.8 MIN, 38.1 AZ

36.9 TBR, 35.6 CIN, 35.5 ATH

 

 

The Sox are right there with the New York teams. The hope with the Sox is that the younger players take the next step and will increase the fWAR in 2026.

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox projected fWAR ranking by position:

T4th LF 3.0

T7th CF 3.3

8th RF 2.8

13th DH 1.7

The whole infield + Catcher are ranked 14th or lower....

14 1B 2.2

20 2B 2.3

23 Catcher 2.4

23 3B 2.1

27 SS 2.1 (Few are talking about upgrading SS)

Pitching:

1st: 22.3 (LAD 21.8)

1st SP 18.3

5th RP 4.0

C, 1B, LF & RF seem a little light to me. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C, 1B, LF & RF seem a little light to me. 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

Gore to Rangers for 5 prospects.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gore to Rangers for 5 prospects.

Ridiculous trade. Glad the Sox didn't do it. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ridiculous trade. Glad the Sox didn't do it. 

BTV shows the prospect value way lower than Gore's, but I agree.

I'm glad we got Suarez.

I'm glad we got Gray and Contreras, too.

Oviedo and Bennett are TBD.

Getting a 2B/3Bman is TBD.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox projected fWAR ranking by position:

T4th LF 3.0

T7th CF 3.3

8th RF 2.8

13th DH 1.7

The whole infield + Catcher are ranked 14th or lower....

14 1B 2.2

20 2B 2.3

23 Catcher 2.4

23 3B 2.1

27 SS 2.1 (Few are talking about upgrading SS)

Pitching:

1st: 22.3 (LAD 21.8)

1st SP 18.3

5th RP 4.0

Its obviously a good team, but to me, missing 1 or even 2 star position players.  None of these are elite.  Obvs Crochet is a star/elite.

You are right that our offensive attack is going to have to be from a deep and balanced lineup rather than a 2/3/4 carrying the rest of the lineup.  Ive seen both work, but with a deep/balanced approach (vs a powerhouse top 4), you really cant allow slumpers to slump for too long.

So people like Cedanne and Mayer or going to have to hit.

[UtahSox]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Its obviously a good team, but to me, missing 1 or even 2 star position players.  None of these are elite.  Obvs Crochet is a star/elite.

You are right that our offensive attack is going to have to be from a deep and balanced lineup rather than a 2/3/4 carrying the rest of the lineup.  Ive seen both work, but with a deep/balanced approach (vs a powerhouse top 4), you really cant allow slumpers to slump for too long.

So people like Cedanne and Mayer or going to have to hit.

This is exactly my thoughts: Agree again. 

If we end up without Isaac Paredes, I think it becomes pretty clear the lineup really only has one true bat you have to pitch around. There are some very good hitters, but there isn’t anyone else who truly stresses you out as an opposing manager.

And honestly, even with Paredes, I’m not sure that fundamentally changes. He’s a good add, but he doesn’t alter how teams game-plan the lineup. That’s why I think it’s imperative we keep Jarren Duran and Abreu…… 

In a lineup without a true star hitter or possibly 1 (as of today). Duran and Abreu are simply more valuable than Ceddanne Rafaela and his beautiful defense. Duran creates pressure every time he’s on base — speed, aggressiveness, forcing mistakes — and that matters even more when you don’t have multiple elite bats behind him. And we need abreu’s home run threat for a pennant chase in Sept/Oct.

2 thoughts: 

1-Depending on how Houston values Rafaela, maybe you could tie Jordan Hicks with Rafaela for Paredes? Freeing up some money. You could add a Suarez as DH, even a Hoskins or Goldschmidt…… or maybe go get another fourth out fielder for DH/ 4OF like a Harrison Bader. Bader doesn’t seem like he has a really strong market. The one thing is very evident in my comments is I think the Yoshida experiment is over. He is what he is, and it’s just not good enough.

2- is very different, I hadn’t really allowed myself to consider until now: second base doesn’t have to be solved immediately. There’s a strong group of second basemen hitting free agency at the end of the year, which gives you real flexibility to grab a mid-season rental from June through September. That also buys time to see what you actually have in Rafaela/Marcelo Mayer bats, instead of forcing a rushed decision. But if come, September, we have a platoon add second base, Marcelo Meyer is injured, or not playing great at third base, and we didn’t pick up a second baseman this is a massive failure for Breslow.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

This is exactly my thoughts: Agree again. 

If we end up without Isaac Paredes, I think it becomes pretty clear the lineup really only has one true bat you have to pitch around. There are some very good hitters, but there isn’t anyone else who truly stresses you out as an opposing manager.

And honestly, even with Paredes, I’m not sure that fundamentally changes. He’s a good add, but he doesn’t alter how teams game-plan the lineup. That’s why I think it’s imperative we keep Jarren Duran and Abreu…… 

In a lineup without a true star hitter or possibly 1 (as of today). Duran and Abreu are simply more valuable than Ceddanne Rafaela and his beautiful defense. Duran creates pressure every time he’s on base — speed, aggressiveness, forcing mistakes — and that matters even more when you don’t have multiple elite bats behind him. And we need abreu’s home run threat for a pennant chase in Sept/Oct.

2 thoughts: 

1-Depending on how Houston values Rafaela, maybe you could tie Jordan Hicks with Rafaela for Paredes? Freeing up some money. You could add a Suarez as DH, even a Hoskins or Goldschmidt…… or maybe go get another fourth out fielder for DH/ 4OF like a Harrison Bader. Bader doesn’t seem like he has a really strong market. The one thing is very evident in my comments is I think the Yoshida experiment is over. He is what he is, and it’s just not good enough.

2- is very different, I hadn’t really allowed myself to consider until now: second base doesn’t have to be solved immediately. There’s a strong group of second basemen hitting free agency at the end of the year, which gives you real flexibility to grab a mid-season rental from June through September. That also buys time to see what you actually have in Rafaela/Marcelo Mayer bats, instead of forcing a rushed decision. But if come, September, we have a platoon add second base, Marcelo Meyer is injured, or not playing great at third base, and we didn’t pick up a second baseman this is a massive failure for Breslow.

Second Basemen

Ozzie Albies (30) – $7MM club option
Bo Bichette (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, resulting in a $5MM buyout
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (29)
Mauricio Dubon (32)
Luis Garcia Jr. (27)
Nico Hoerner (30)
Jonathan India (30)
Brandon Lowe (32)
Gavin Lux (29)
Nick Madrigal (30)
Amed Rosario (31)
Gleyber Torres (30)
Ildemaro Vargas (35)

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Its obviously a good team, but to me, missing 1 or even 2 star position players.  None of these are elite.  Obvs Crochet is a star/elite.

You are right that our offensive attack is going to have to be from a deep and balanced lineup rather than a 2/3/4 carrying the rest of the lineup.  Ive seen both work, but with a deep/balanced approach (vs a powerhouse top 4), you really cant allow slumpers to slump for too long.

So people like Cedanne and Mayer or going to have to hit.

If we add Paredes, we do get better on O, whether we call him tier 1 or tier 2. It also pushes DHam/Romy to the bench, which helps there.

I'm not sure how we fit Paredes and ESuarez into the line-up, unless we trade an OF'er and bench/demote/trade/DFA Masa. I'm not even sure Suarez is an upgrade on O over Duran or Abreu, except for raw power.

If we trade Rafaela and add Paredes & Suarez, our offense would be top 10ish.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As usual folks are harsh on Rafaela at the plate. He's totally streaky, and hacks with the worst of them, but where would the Sox be without his clutch defense AND offense last year? 

Answer: out of the playoffs. When Trevor Story was interviewed last week about his top moments of the '25 season, he cited Ceddanne's walk-off HR right before the All-Star break, and his game-winning triple that clinched the Wild Card. 

Mine was his catch of the ball that popped out of Abreu's glove -- because Rafaela sprinted all that way just to back him up.

Ceddanne is not a star hitter, but he's right there with Duran as an all-around contributor -- they tied last year with 4.7 bWAR to lead all Boston position players. And as the graphic I posted a few days ago shows, Duran-Rafaela are 1-2 in team RBIs the past two seasons.

[moonslav59]

CWS sign S Dominguez to $20M/2.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As usual folks are harsh on Rafaela at the plate. He's totally streaky, and hacks with the worst of them, but where would the Sox be without his clutch defense AND offense last year? 

Answer: out of the playoffs. When Trevor Story was interviewed last week about his top moments of the '25 season, he cited Ceddanne's walk-off HR right before the All-Star break, and his game-winning triple that clinched the Wild Card. 

Mine was his catch of the ball that popped out of Abreu's glove -- because Rafaela sprinted all that way just to back him up.

Ceddanne is not a star hitter, but he's right there with Duran as an all-around contributor -- they tied last year with 4.7 bWAR to lead all Boston position players. And as the graphic I posted a few days ago shows, Duran-Rafaela are 1-2 in team RBIs the past two seasons.

I'm not for trading Ceddanne. After Anthony, he's #3 on my OF keeper list. 

I was just talking on a way we could become a top 10 offense.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading Ceddanne. After Anthony, he's #3 on my OF keeper list. 

I was just talking on a way we could become a top 10 offense.

Aside from Roman and Crochet, I'm prepared for anyone to be traded. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As usual folks are harsh on Rafaela at the plate.

He had a 95 OPS+ with huge advances in his K/W.  I find it interesting that continued improvement isn't really considered.  He's 25.  Most players peak at about age 28.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading Ceddanne. After Anthony, he's #3 on my OF keeper list. 

I was just talking on a way we could become a top 10 offense.

Not to mention #1 in bWAR among position players.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

He had a 95 OPS+ with huge advances in his K/W.  I find it interesting that continued improvement isn't really considered.  He's 25.  Most players peak at about age 28.

His chase dropped from 46% to 42%! Jumped up to 2nd percentile! 

[moonslav59]

I get the need to improve the offense and a heads up to the cliche police...

You don't throw baby Ceddanne out with the bath water just so our line-up looks better.

[mvp 78]

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I get the need to improve the offense and a heads up to the cliche police...

You don't throw baby Ceddanne out with the bath water just so our line-up looks better.

Just don't overstate the improvement, please. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

His chase dropped from 46% to 42%! Jumped up to 2nd percentile! 

2023+2024 to 2025

OBP: .275> .295 (+7%)

OPS+ 84> 95 (+13%)

BB%: 2.9> 4.8% (+66%)

K%: 27.1>19.9% (27% better)

Hard Hit%: 24.2>30.4% (+26%)

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just don't overstate the improvement, please. 

Me? Use hyperbole?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BB%: 2.9> 4.8% (+66%)

He's still 7th percentile... Do you think he's going to improve another 66%? 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Me? Use hyperbole?

I was raised to trust teachers. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's still 7th percentile... Do you think he's going to improve another 66%? 

Nope. He may actually regress, but I think he starts hitting more homers and his OBP might reach .310 some year.

Ks dont bother me if a player does other things well. CR is also an overall plus, so improvement is gravy, to me.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was raised to trust teachers. 

Trust nobody.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trust nobody.

When I was a kid, there were posters (the kind that hang on walls) warning: "Don't Trust Anyone Over 30"

John Henry may have made a billion dollars and never forgot his roots.

My take is that the Red Sox' offense is so lacking in basic contact fundamentals, adding new faces can't hurt.

However, subtracting more big leaguers who have had any success -- and not just Bregman, but guys like Rafaela driving in runs or Yoshida putting balls in play -- just isn't the way to improve an offense.

[moonslav59]

Some folks trust to reason
Others trust to might
I don't trust to nothing
But I know it come out right
Say it once again now
Oh, I hope you understand
When it's done and over
Lord, a man is just a man