Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We can't speak to what JH will do, only what to the ramifications are for going over each CBT threshold. If you can afford to go over the 1st, you may as well go over the 2nd IMO! The 3rd is a different issue as it impacts draft strategy and I can see how that is a no go for many organizations. 

Agreed. The third line affects the precious draft slots and bonus money.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We can't speak to what JH will do, only what to the ramifications are for going over each CBT threshold. If you can afford to go over the 1st, you may as well go over the 2nd IMO! The 3rd is a different issue as it impacts draft strategy and I can see how that is a no go for many organizations. 

While it makes sense to us, JH seems to detest paying more than $1.5M in taxes, almost as much as he detests any FA deals over 6 years or $140M.

I think the tax is 30% for the second year, right?

Going over $5M is a $1.5M tax.

$10M over? $3M tax.

$20M= $6M tax. That seems acceptable to you and me, but I'm not so sure JH sees it that way.

$40M is $12M tax- about what he pasy Hicks.

In total, it's $52M than staying at the line $40M below.

[Larry Cook]

On 1/7/2026 at 3:07 PM, mvp 78 said:

And SoxProspects only projects Tolle, Arias, Early and Witherspoon to be an average regular or better. All the other guys are bench or up and down guys. Unless all these guys start reaching their ceilings, which is far from likely...

Witherspoon has not thrown a pitch in pro ball yet! Not all 1st round draft picks that did well in college, become average or better pros! 
 

I think Romero has a chance to be the next average or better position player in our system. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Romero has a chance to be the next average or better position player in our system. 

Good thing we don't need a position player after we get a 3Bman.

Contreras has 2 years: Duran has 3 years, and we already have 3 other OF'ers.

By the time we need a position player, Arias and Gonzalez might be ready.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

Unfortunately, too many moving pieces.  There were several small differences, which surprised me.  And Crochet earned a $1.5M bonus for finishing #2 in CY.  But I'm not sure if the gets applied to the year it was earned or whether it just increases his 2026.

But the only interesting piece was what Soxprospects calls Minor League Cost at $14.0M.  I assume it covers all the 0-3 players, plus anyone getting promoted/demoted during the year.  Cots has something similar called 0- to 3-year players in majors/0- to 3-year players in minors.  They only have $7.4M for that.  I presume that's the  major difference between the two calculations.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

If teams want Skubal bad enough to trade for I don’t think it would matter at all if he’s making $19M, or $25M, and that will have NO BEARING on what Skubal will get in the future. What he gets in 2026 won’t matter when it comes to signing him long term after that IMO.

 

I agree.  If he gets traded at the deadline, even at $32M, you only owe about $11M, and our share of difference is ($32-19)/3 or an extra $4M.  That one more okay prospect.  And if you trade/sign, then it's couch cushion change.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Sign me up. 
resign Bregman

trade Mayer+ Duran for Cole Ragans. 

Go with Romy/DHam platoon?  I would do it, pending the deepest dive medical in history on Ragan's arm.  He's a legit #2 with control.  But why would KC trade him if he was healthy?  His 3 years are more valuable than Skubal's one year.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Witherspoon has not thrown a pitch in pro ball yet! Not all 1st round draft picks that did well in college, become average or better pros! 
 

I think Romero has a chance to be the next average or better position player in our system. 

IRT Witherspoon, we might be getting high on our own supply.  Our development has been so pristine over the past couple of years that we 'might' be getting over-confident.  I posted the same thing earlier on Early.  He seems to have moved from an interesting non-top 100 prospect, to almost untouchable.

We don't have to, but it might make sense to trade him, if someone is mesmerized by his 19.1 MLB innings.

IRT Romero, I don't see it.  Too many Ks, and not enough fielding.

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Skubal is going to hand the arbiter a PSA 10 rookie and Skubal will walk out with $33M. 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed. 

• Tigers win.
• Skubal demands a trade.
• The RS step in, for the good of baseball, and makes an offer.
• Skubal signs a $300M/8 extension.

Easy-peasy.  Everyone goes home happy.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree.  If he gets traded at the deadline, even at $32M, you only owe about $11M, and our share of difference is ($32-19)/3 or an extra $4M.  That one more okay prospect.  And if you trade/sign, then it's couch cushion change.

Getting him at the deadline also loses the comp pick, if he bolts to another team for 2027.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Go with Romy/DHam platoon?  I would do it, pending the deepest dive medical in history on Ragan's arm.  He's a legit #2 with control.  But why would KC trade him if he was healthy?  His 3 years are more valuable than Skubal's one year.

My guess would be Romy ends up being the FT 2Bman. His splits improved greatly, last season while DHam's bat looked horrific. Romy might play some back-up 1B, so maybe DHam still gets some time, but we should "rest" Contreras vs RHPs, and that does help DHam play vs only RHPs.

Ragans can be an ace, when healthy. The 3 years is a major carrot.

I may just be shell-shocked over acquiring injury-prone pitchers.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IRT Witherspoon, we might be getting high on our own supply. 

We've had so many early hopes on pitching prospects that were quickly dashed.

Witherspoon has a lot of promise, for sure, and yes, we've been doing a much better job with pitcher development over recent years, but getting high quality players by trade is also a good way to maximize prospect value.

I'm never going to say a good pitcher is "blocked," but I do think we look pretty solid in the pitching area, especially starters:

Control ends after...

2026: Sandoval

2027: Houck, Oviedo

2028: Crawford

2029:

2030: Bello, Harrison

2031 or later: Crochet, Tolle, Early

Bennett, Sandlin, Uberstine, Drohan, Mullins, Witherspoon

Valera, Holobetz, Phillips, Eyanson, Monegro, Delzine, Cason

There is a risk that Witherspoon outshines almost all of these guys, but we have some serious holes to plus and an owner that has been stingy with his wallet over most recent seasons.

 

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IRT Romero, I don't see it.  Too many Ks, and not enough fielding.

I think the statement might be true based on the fact that there are very few promising MLB ready everyday prospects in our system.

I'm okay with that, actually, because our 26 man roster has enough quality players under team control for several years, that we don't need major farm infusion in that rea for a few more years.

Of course, it would be nice if we had two Mayers, not one: one for 2B and one for 3B, but I'd still be worried about needing two rookies to carry those two slots for a full season. 

We could use a decent back-up catcher, but I'm fine with Wong, who has 3 more seasons of control. By then, maybe one of our farm catchers will be shining brightly. Narvaez has 5 years of control!

1B might need some help in 3 years, as Contreras runs out of control after 2027, but Casas has 3 years, so that gives the farm some time to fill that slot.

The infield is the one area we look to be needy in, and so the Romero suggestion carries some weight for that reason. All he needs to do is outshine Eaton, Sogard and or DHam to win a role on the 26. Story has 2 years and an option. Mayer has 5. Campbell may work his way back into the infield conversation, but that remains to be seen. He has mega years left.

The OF seems set for life, well... almost. Anthony & Campbell are locked up until 2034. (That might be beyond my life expectancy!) Rafaela has until 2031! Abreu had 4 years left (3 arbs.) Duran has 3 years left. That's 5 OF'ers for 3 years, 4 for 4 and 3 for eternity. Justin Gonzales may need to play 1B to get a shot.

soxprospects.com has the AAA everyday roster listed as such:

C: Delay, Rosario & Lira (with Contreras still able to catch in an emergency, we may not see a AAA catcher on the big club all year.)

1B: Hickey who can also DH or catch in a pinch. I like Romero's chances better.

2B: T Gray can also play 1B. He might have a better shot than Romero.

3B: Romero.

SS: Sogard. He has the inside edge on Romero and maybe even Eaton.

LF: Campbell may end up on the opening day 26.

CF: Ward. I don't know enough about him to put him over Romero, and OF is blocked.

RF: Eaton can also play 3B. He is likely slotted above Romero on the 3B depth chart.

DH/OF: Capra

This whole group looks pretty weak, except for Campbell. Not much serious upside with anyone else.

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

This whole group looks pretty weak, except for Campbell. Not much serious upside with anyone else.

'Pretty weak' is being generous, imho.  But if you have your control and extended players performing well, we should be able to rebuild the pipeline.  I think we'll have a pretty good 2030 teams, and that's 5 years away.  There is no certainty in drafting, but five years of draft picks should provide addition talent.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

'Pretty weak' is being generous, imho.  But if you have your control and extended players performing well, we should be able to rebuild the pipeline.  I think we'll have a pretty good 2030 teams, and that's 5 years away.  There is no certainty in drafting, but five years of draft picks should provide addition talent.

Yup, and trading of signing a player here and there is no biggie, when it's so few.

We need 3B (2B) now.

We need 1B in 3 years.

We need SS in 3 or 4 years, as Story had a 3rd year option.

We lose Duran after 3 years but are OF deep.

Yes, the farm can be built up by then, but even if we can't fill all these slots by then, we should be able to cover by outside the system additions.

Our top everyday prospects and ETAs according to sp.com:

2. Arias SS Mid '27 (Story under control until '27 or '28-- perfect timing!)

7. Gonzales FF (maybe moved to 1B?) early '28 (just in time for the  Contreras loss. Duran is done after '28-- again- perfect.)

8. Soto SS by '29 or '30- kinda too early to know much, here.

12. Godbout 2B/SS/ 3B? mis '28- we could use a 2Bman now, but '28 isn't too far away.

I've written off 18 Bleis OF, 19 Cespedes 2B/DH & 22 Castro OF, but maybe one will be a "late bloomer."

20. Azocar OF is just 18. Let's wait before talking ETA. Same with 24 Ramos SS and 25 Rivas OF. Cason at #30 is a SS/P and 19.

26. Jo Garcia C is my sleeper pick to jump. ETA is '28 which is Wong's last year.

27. Taylor OF ETA 2028. Don't really need an OF then.

31 and lower hopes:

C Guzman, Heyman, J Rod & Primera (maybe one jumps) + G Rod

IF: Mason White, Alcantara, Nunez, Bravo

OF: YRod, I Jackson, Fermin

1B: Brannon (C?) & J Ogando

Certainly, we don't stack up all that well against most other teams, but we do have some promise, already, and our needs are not all that great, as of now.

[Hitch]

On 1/8/2026 at 8:55 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

my comment on Crawford was simply in jest and a reaction to the fact that 1-2 year deals are pretty much what the Sox have been doing for the past few years. Personally I could care less if the Sox spend big on FA's. For example there is no chance I would sign Bregman for any more than 3 years and there would be NO opt out clause whatsoever. I don't mind Bichette for 5 years given he is only 28 and is a good player who can fill a hole for us. But if we go into 2026 with our current roster I'm fine with that but save us the reports that we are in on this guy and that guy and then get none of them.

as for payroll when we were once 2-3 and are now 8-10 and have missed the postseason 4 of the past 6 years after JH stated his goal was to compete for a WS EVERY YEAR.- that I have an issue with. The current team even with Bregman added is not a true contender IMO. 

Okay, but how do you expect us to get better if you won't go past deals like 3 years on Bregman and 5 years on Bo? Neither of those will get it done (as we've seen in Bregman's case already). And there is only so much we can trade away. 

This is what I talk about when I say people are looking for things to be angry about. One one hand you want them to get better, on the other hand you think anything bar 3 years on Bregman/5 years on Bo is an automatic no. This thinking is the perfect middle ground where you get to be angry all the time about whatever comes.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/9/2026 at 8:40 PM, JoeBrady said:

• Tigers win.
• Skubal demands a trade.
• The RS step in, for the good of baseball, and makes an offer.
• Skubal signs a $300M/8 extension.

Easy-peasy.  Everyone goes home happy.

are you kidding me. It would take a boatload of the Sox top prospects to get Skubal. Think of a package consisting of Duran, Romero, Early , and Witherspoon or Tolle just to get the discussion started. Then after the year ends Skubal walks as a FA because JH won't buck up.

[Randy Red Sox]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

'Pretty weak' is being generous, imho.  But if you have your control and extended players performing well, we should be able to rebuild the pipeline.  I think we'll have a pretty good 2030 teams, and that's 5 years away.  There is no certainty in drafting, but five years of draft picks should provide addition talent.

SO now we will be good in 2030??   Awesome.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Okay, but how do you expect us to get better if you won't go past deals like 3 years on Bregman and 5 or even 6 years on Bo? Neither of those will get it done (as we've seen in Bregman's case already). And there is only so much we can trade away. 

This is what I talk about when I say people are looking for things to be angry about. One one hand you want them to get better, on the other hand you think anything bar 3 years on Bregman/5 years on Bo is an automatic no. This thinking is the perfect middle ground where you get to be angry all the time about whatever comes.

I have said along that we SHOULD go 5 or even 6 years on Bo given he is only about to turn 28.  I also know we won't be signing him.  5 years on Bregman was too long IMO.  At this point I don't care if we sign anyone. What I DO care is if we trade one of our top SP prospects for someone like Donovan.

You make it sound like I am the only Red Sox fan that is upset about how the offseason has gone FOR AT LEAST 3 YEARS NOW.  I am 100% convinced that all JH cares about now is making sure the Sox field a REASONABLE AND DECENT team and his revenues stay strong  His promise of the Sox fielding a WS contender EVERY YEAR has RUNG HOLLOW.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

It would take a boatload of the Sox top prospects to get Skubal. Think of a package consisting of Duran, Romero, Early , and Witherspoon

I was just making conversation, but if we could get Skubal on the $300M/8 I mentioned, then I'd make that trade.  Not happily, but we'd have about the best rotation in BB.

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I was just making conversation, but if we could get Skubal on the $300M/8 I mentioned, then I'd make that trade.  Not happily, but we'd have about the best rotation in BB.

I doubt anybody is out bidding cohen (or perhaps maybe the dodgers) on skubal next November!! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

You make it sound like I am the only Red Sox fan that is upset about how the offseason has gone 

Red Sox fans all over New England are pissed today. The average Sox fan that doesn't post on this forum could care less about payroll and competitive balance taxes. They may spend time discussing won-loss records or batting or pitching stats, but hardly ever player salaries.

All they see today is another All-Star player, team leader and fan favorite is gone.

But yea, Red Sox uniform shirts!

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Red Sox fans all over New England are pissed today. The average Sox fan that doesn't post on this forum could care less about payroll and competitive balance taxes. They may spend time discussing won-loss records or batting or pitching stats, but hardly ever player salaries.

All they see today is another All-Star player, team leader and fan favorite is gone.

But yea, Red Sox uniform shirts!

Well said, and agree100%.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

are you kidding me. It would take a boatload of the Sox top prospects to get Skubal. Think of a package consisting of Duran, Romero, Early , and Witherspoon or Tolle just to get the discussion started. Then after the year ends Skubal walks as a FA because JH won't buck up.

Definitely not.  Not for one year of Skubal.  
 

I mean itwon’t be Romero, Hamilton and Connor Wong, either.  Maybe 2 good prospects and some filler, like with Crochet.

But since chances of extending him are minimal, I’d just wait a year…

[notin]

59 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I doubt anybody is out bidding cohen (or perhaps maybe the dodgers) on skubal next November!! 

Cohen?  Is he still a factor anymore?  

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Cohen?  Is he still a factor anymore?  

You think he is stopping with just Soto??  

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I doubt anybody is out bidding cohen (or perhaps maybe the dodgers) on skubal next November!! 

exactly.  almost certainly a Dodger

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

You think he is stopping with just Soto??  

Devin Williams?

Full throttle!!!!

[Larry Cook]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Devin Williams?

Full throttle!!!!

Cohen seems to enjoy an almost comical pleasure in signing former Yankees!!!!   

Better he delights in signing former Yankees and not Red Sox!! 
 

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Cohen seems to enjoy an almost comical pleasure in signing former Yankees!!!!   

Better he delights in signing former Yankees and not Red Sox!! 
 

Speaking of the Yanks. They may not sign Bellinger, despite a reported $30M AAV offer.

Rodon is expected to start the season on the IL. He's 33.

Cole is coming off a major injury and hasn't had a great season since 2023. He's 35 and some are writing off the 36 year old Gray, who has actually pitched well from 2024-2025.

They have some good young pitchers and players, but better than ours?

Ages in 2025:

22 Dominguez

24 Schlitter & Volpe

25 Wells 

26 Rice & Warren

27 Chisholm & Gil

Red Sox:

21 Anthony

22 Tolle & Mayer

23 Early, Harrison & Campbell

24 Rafaela

25 Casas

26 Crochet, Bello, Abreu & Narvaez

27 Slaten

If you factor in age progression production, we could see some significant gains on NYY.