Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, harmony said:

Too rich for the Seattle Mariners IMHO.

It's only for a year.  As someone once said, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

[Kimmi]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Some of these GMs are desperate and will overpay for anyone.

There is overpaying, and then there is grossly overpaying.  I'm okay with overpaying for a 1-3 year deal.  It's the 8+ year contracts to free agents that get me.

[Kimmi]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

1-Absolutely positive that JH is not cheap.

2-Absolutely positive that JH knows, to the penny, the marginal revenue, marginal expense.  He will weigh the chances of us making the playoffs, the WS, etc.,

I agree.  Henry's a businessman, first and foremost.  He didn't make his fortune by making a lot of bad decisions.

[Kimmi]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If it’s 6 years we have zero chance, 5 years maybe 10% chance, 4 years maybe 25% and 3 years maybe 50% tops, but I doubt he takes 3, if longer offers are out there.

Well, he opted out of a guaranteed $80M over two years, so he is obviously looking for bigger and longer.  If I had to guess, I'd say he gets a 5 year deal from someone not named the Red Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It's only for a year.  As someone once said, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

The someone who said it wasn't the Red Sox exec who signed Kluber.

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But that has nothing to do with reality.  I raised the question about a week+ back about a $260M payroll.  No one commented.

Of course. But reality and realism have little to do with general fandom usually. It's all about emotion and with social media and forums self-fulfilling loops now, everyone gets to be an expert and ignorant at the same time.  

Let the good times roll.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

Well there are certainly many, many posts stating that Henry is greedy and/or cheap.  I really can't fault anyone for thinking that.  I just have a different opinion on that matter.

I do fault people for thinking that on times. We've been in the top 3 spenders in the league for the majority of his ownership. I've argued that there is context and reasons why he wanted to hold off the spending the last few 4/5 years - mostly through terrible and costly decision making.

If we don't spend any more this winter I'll have problems with it myself, now that we're in entering the window. But I don't believe for one second we're done and believe we will spend more. And if being near $260m isn't enough for people, I don't know what to say to them, outside of - that certainly isn't cheap.

[JoeBrady]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are the only AL team not to sign a MLB FA

• Orioles-Alonso & Helsley
• The BJs add Cease, Ponce +?
• Mariners re-signed Naylor, Grisham took the NYY QO, the Tigers retained Finnegan & Torres

So only two of the AL teams have added new help.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Red Sox are the ONLY AL Team to not sign a SINGLE FA and one of only 2 in all of MLB

But so what? I really don't know why people are making such a fuss of this. Really, who gives a s*** where from we add as long as we get better?

I'd hoped we'd sign Alonso but prefer the Contreras move overall. Apart from that, nobody has gone that I'm devastated we missed out on.

Fandom is so weird these day. Everything is a disaster. Even okay to good things. 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If it’s 6 years we have zero chance, 5 years maybe 10% chance, 4 years maybe 25% and 3 years maybe 50% tops, but I doubt he takes 3, if longer offers are out there.

I think we offered 5 years and a 6th year guaranteed if he plays in a specified number of games throughout the contract 

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Most are meh. None of them will put us over the top to compete for a ring.

Then you are SOL.  There is no single player that will put you over the top.  You need 26 players to win in the regular season, and usually with 5 good SPs.  To win in the post-season, you need two aces, or close to it.  The HR thing?  Of the top-15 HR hitters over the past 5 years, only one has a WS ring.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

The you are SOL.  There is no single player that will put you over the top.  You need 26 players to win in the regular season, and usually with 5 good SPs.  To win in the post-season, you need two aces, or close to it.  The HR thing?  Of the top-15 HR hitters over the past 5 years, only one has a WS ring.

That's cuz when the other 14 all-or-nothing goons tried to put rings on, they missed their fingers.

But there was once a player that put his team over the top. When the '84 Tigers acquired closer Willie Hernandez, I predicted they'd go all the way. They went wire-to-wire. 

It was only 4 decades ago.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think we offered 5 years and a 6th year guaranteed if he plays in a specified number of games throughout the contract 

Why didn't we offer even 4 years, last winter? We only offered 1-3 years- his choice.

He's a year older and missed 50 games due to an injury. I'm leery of 4 years, but would do it. I might offer the 5th year with a team option and $5M buyout, but that's tops for me.

I'd prefer 3 with a mutual option 4th year.

 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's a year older and missed 50 games due to an injury.

I think he'll be out there for a while.  While some fans think he's redeemed himself because of the better hitting, I'm thinking the injury might've hurt him more than the hitting helped.

I'm wondering if he'd accept some version of the $80M ($64M CBT) that he opted out of, with some enhancements to make it look better from his side.  Add some salary, with more deferrals, maybe a 3rd year, and maybe an opt-out after two years.  IOW, give him a $100M/4 dressed up to look like $150M/5.

[FredLynn]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Then you are SOL.  There is no single player that will put you over the top.  You need 26 players to win in the regular season, and usually with 5 good SPs.  To win in the post-season, you need two aces, or close to it.  The HR thing?  Of the top-15 HR hitters over the past 5 years, only one has a WS ring.

Who have we gotten this year by trade or as a FA of significance, someone who is a top flight player who can make a big difference? No one you say? 

Correct

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I think he'll be out there for a while.  While some fans think he's redeemed himself because of the better hitting, I'm thinking the injury might've hurt him more than the hitting helped.

I'm wondering if he'd accept some version of the $80M ($64M CBT) that he opted out of, with some enhancements to make it look better from his side.  Add some salary, with more deferrals, maybe a 3rd year, and maybe an opt-out after two years.  IOW, give him a $100M/4 dressed up to look like $150M/5.

Nice effort, here, but I doubt we can make that happen.

If he's going to get $150M/5 somewhere, I'd rather give him $160M/6 than $130M/4. (I would not do any of these.)

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who have we gotten this year by trade or as a FA of significance, someone who is a top flight player who can make a big difference? No one you say? 

Correct

So, only two teams have done that, right? PHI & BAL. Maybe 3, if you count Cease to TOR?

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who have we gotten this year by trade or as a FA of significance, someone who is a top flight player who can make a big difference? No one you say? 

Correct

How many teams have acquired a player better than Gray?  How many teams have acquired two players as good as Gray + Contreras?

[FredLynn]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

How many teams have acquired a player better than Gray?  How many teams have acquired two players as good as Gray + Contreras?

The Orioles improved their roster. The Yankees will be better this year because their ace is returning. The Jays got a better pitcher than Gray. And the Yankees and Jays started off ahead of the Flops. We had a lot of ground to make up. Gray and Contreras aren’t going to allow us to catch them. Basically we are wasting our window because Henry is too cheap to pay the top players. We haven’t even retained Bregman. We are not much better than we were last year. But our competition is.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The Orioles improved their roster. The Yankees will be better this year because their ace is returning. The Jays got a better pitcher than Gray. And the Yankees and Jays started off ahead of the Flops. We had a lot of ground to make up. Gray and Contreras aren’t going to allow us to catch them. Basically we are wasting our window because Henry is too cheap to pay the top players. We haven’t even retained Bregman. We are not much better than we were last year. But our competition is.

Other teams lost big talent, too.

Answer the question.

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Other teams lost big talent, too.

Answer the question.

I answered it. The Jays, the Orioles, and the Yankees added talent and we added….Gray and Contreras, who will maybe keep us keep level with those teams, but no one who will help us get better than they are relative to last year. I don’t just want to match in place next year. It’s time to accept nothing less than competing for a ring.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks have no re-signed or replaced Bellinger or Grisham, plus others.

How come when Sox pitchers are returning from injury, you expect crap?

Yes, TOR signed Cease, but he's no sure bet, and they still have Bichette unsigned. They have been bold.

I do agree, as of now, we are not better than 2025, but Brez has been busy and has made some quality additions- just not top quality.

I have said we need top quality not quantity, so I will not be happy, if we don't add a quality bat or #2 SP'er, but there is time.

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I answered it. The Jays, the Orioles, and the Yankees added talent and we added….Gray and Contreras, who will maybe keep us keep level with those teams, but no one who will help us get better than they are relative to last year. I don’t just want to match in place next year. It’s time to accept nothing less than competing for a ring.

All 3 teams added 2 players better than Gray and Contreras?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

All 3 teams added 2 players better than Gray and Contreras?

To me, the subtracts are worse for us than the lack of additions.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Yanks have no re-signed or replaced Bellinger or Grisham, plus others.

How come when Sox pitchers are returning from injury, you expect crap?

Yes, TOR signed Cease, but he's no sure bet, and they still have Bichette unsigned. They have been bold.

I do agree, as of now, we are not better than 2025, but Brez has been busy and has made some quality additions- just not top quality.

I have said we need top quality not quantity, so I will not be happy, if we don't add a quality bat or #2 SP'er, but there is time.

 

This is a window we should not ignore. The building blocks are there. We have an ace and a budding superstar in Anthony. We have a gulp at SPing and OF and a decent farm to us as trade bait. And lots of $$ available if Henry would open his wallet.

Our holes haven’t been addressed.

idiots

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

This is a window we should not ignore. The building blocks are there. We have an ace and a budding superstar in Anthony. We have a gulp at SPing and OF and a decent farm to us as trade bait. And lots of $$ available if Henry would open his wallet.

Our holes haven’t been addressed.

idiots

We filled the 1B opening with a 1Bman who has some very nice numbers.

We did not miss getting a solid #2 SP'er by too much, but I do think we fell short. I doubt Oviedo makes up that differential.

We still need that big bat and a 2Bman or 3Bman. To me, KMarte fills both roles, but that seems like s long shot. His long contract sucks, but the AAV is not too bad, and could be lessened, if we give back Duran or Rafaela plus Crawford. (They won't take Hicks, even if we add another sweetener.

I'm not optimistic, but there are still options out there.

[moonslav59]

Fairbanks to Marlins for #13M/1.

[Larry Cook]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fairbanks to Marlins for #13M/1.

Wow!!  I thought we were the masters of short term deals!!!!

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Wow!!  I thought we were the masters of short term deals!!!!

$13M is a lot for a guy who has seen his K rate do this...

14.3 in '22

13.5 in '23

8.7 in '24

8.8 in '25

K's were what he was known for (and velocity.)

He did still have a .612 OPSA in '25 (.659 v L)

.601 in '24 (.689 v L)

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$13M is a lot for a guy who has seen his K rate do this...

14.3 in '22

13.5 in '23

8.7 in '24

8.8 in '25

K's were what he was known for (and velocity.)

He did still have a .612 OPSA in '25 (.659 v L)

.601 in '24 (.689 v L)

How much of that is injury related