Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Cameron Tran said:

Wink, Moran, Campbell are all probably going to be DFA'd. Hicks still has a lot of money tied to him (2 years, 12.5 AAV), so they're probably going to give him the longest leash. 

I think Moran stays. We really don't have the roster crunch some think we do, and I also think we can make a 2 or 3 for one trade before Rule 5 day.

Also, we may only protect Sandlin, so no but crunch.

One crunch factor is that Houck needs to stay on the 40, until the season starts. You'd think the union would allow players to be placed on the 60 day IL right before the season to allow more players to earn MLB money, but I guess they end up earning it a few days later.

They probably want to avoid teams using phantom 60 Day ILs to expand their 40 man rosters.

I'm not so sure Wink gets DFA'd. He had some decent numbers for the Sox over multiple seasons. After his first season in 2022, he had a 2.1 bWAR in 172 IP. (3.51 ERA/ 124 ERA+/4.11 FIP) He might get traded but not DFA'd, IMO.

I do think I Campbell gets DFA'd. Grissom will be traded or DFA'd. Eaton & de Leon might be, too. I wouldn't cry if Kelly or Guerrero is traded or cut loose.

A lot depends on how many FAs we add. I'm hopeful we seek quality over quantity, and if we just add 2-3 FAs to the 40, we'll be fine. If it's 4-5, then heads must roll.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s very possible Sandoval and Crawford are in that rotation…

With no additions, I'd guess...

1. Crochet

2. Bello

3. Sandoval

4. Crawford

5. Early

6. Harrison, 7. Dobbins (IL) 8. Tolle, 9. Perales (Fitts, Wink & Criswell in pen.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Despite last night’s stellar outing, Miller is normally a lot less special away from T-Mobil.  Bryan Woo is far more interesting.

But Seattle has very little depth beyond the MLB rotation.  An outfield-needy team with surplus SP that lines up much better for Boston is Cincinnati…

I read a rumor of Duran + prospects for Lodolo (soon to turn 28.) Lodolo has 2 arbs left, so one less year of control, so maybe the added prospects will not need to be top prospects.

One has to worry if 2025 was an outlier for Lodolo, but he is trending up, while Duran downwards. His ERA+ went from 92 to 137, and his K/BB from 3.3 to 5.0. His FIP barely improved from 3.95 to 3.81. He is a lefty.

Would you call him a projected #2 (top 31-60) SP'er?

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Moran stays. We really don't have the roster crunch some think we do, and I also think we can make a 2 or 3 for one trade before Rule 5 day.

Also, we may only protect Sandlin, so no but crunch.

One crunch factor is that Houck needs to stay on the 40, until the season starts. You'd think the union would allow players to be placed on the 60 day IL right before the season to allow more players to earn MLB money, but I guess they end up earning it a few days later.

They probably want to avoid teams using phantom 60 Day ILs to expand their 40 man rosters.

I'm not so sure Wink gets DFA'd. He had some decent numbers for the Sox over multiple seasons. After his first season in 2022, he had a 2.1 bWAR in 172 IP. (3.51 ERA/ 124 ERA+/4.11 FIP) He might get traded but not DFA'd, IMO.

I do think I Campbell gets DFA'd. Grissom will be traded or DFA'd. Eaton & de Leon might be, too. I wouldn't cry if Kelly or Guerrero is traded or cut loose.

A lot depends on how many FAs we add. I'm hopeful we seek quality over quantity, and if we just add 2-3 FAs to the 40, we'll be fine. If it's 4-5, then heads must roll.

Who else has a 40 man decision to be made?

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I read a rumor of Duran + prospects for Lodolo (soon to turn 28.) Lodolo has 2 arbs left, so one less year of control, so maybe the added prospects will not need to be top prospects.

One has to worry if 2025 was an outlier for Lodolo, but he is trending up, while Duran downwards. His ERA+ went from 92 to 137, and his K/BB from 3.3 to 5.0. His FIP barely improved from 3.95 to 3.81. He is a lefty.

Would you call him a projected #2 (top 31-60) SP'er?

I think Lodolo falls into the category of fringe #2's the Red Sox would look at. I'd rather a righty, but I like Lodolo's pitch mix and profile. This is my shortlist of guys I want the Red Sox to atleast look into.

 

Jared Jones 

Joe Ryan 

Mitch Keller

Bryce Miller

Ryan Pepiot

Kris Bubic

Cole Ragans

Tanner Bibee 

For Free Agents:

Michael King 

Dylan Cease 

Ranger Suarez

Zac Gallen

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Who else has a 40 man decision to be made?

 

6 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Who else has a 40 man decision to be made?

Many teams have 40 man roster decisions to make, including some bad teams. I don't know the depth of every team, but my guess is our "crunch" is no worse than most other teams, when you look at our projected 37-40 slots and add Sandlin.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

I think Lodolo falls into the category of fringe #2's the Red Sox would look at. I'd rather a righty, but I like Lodolo's pitch mix and profile. This is my shortlist of guys I want the Red Sox to atleast look into.

 

Jared Jones 

Joe Ryan 

Mitch Keller

Bryce Miller

Ryan Pepiot

Kris Bubic

Cole Ragans

Tanner Bibee 

For Free Agents:

Michael King 

Dylan Cease 

Ranger Suarez

Zac Gallen

I see Keller as a #3. 

Cease scares the bejesus out of me. Galeen, too. I'd rather roll the dice on a shorter deal with Merrill Kelly, despite his age.

Ranger Suarez would be nice. I like your other trade ideas.

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Many teams have 40 man roster decisions to make, including some bad teams. I don't know the depth of every team, but my guess is our "crunch" is no worse than most other teams, when you look at our projected 37-40 slots and add Sandlin.

No sorry, I mean for our players. Who do we need to make a decision on whether or not we protect them or not form rule 5 other than Sandlin

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

No sorry, I mean for our players. Who do we need to make a decision on whether or not we protect them or not form rule 5 other than Sandlin

I think Mullins is the only real borderline Rule 5, and we can make room for him, too.

I also think we will make a trade involving Duran and others, and if one is on the 40, that would free up another slot.

28 Locks/Keepers:

Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Bello, Sandoval, Early, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino

Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshida, Romy, Jh Garcia, Wong

9 Probable/Trade Bait/ No Big Deal

Casas, DHam, Criswell, Winckowski, Moran, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sogard

Rule 5: + 1 Sandlin (maybe Mullins)

That's 38 or 39. We likely dont protect Mullins and keep Hicks, so we'd be at 39.

6 Borderline/Trade/Non Tender/DFA:

Hicks, Lowe, Grissom, Eaton, de Leon, I Campbell

Trade or DFA the last 4 or 5 names from these 6.

 (Kelly & Guerrero are borderline, when we sign FAs.)

 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

It seems unlikely the Mariners trade Woo after the season he just had. Honestly if we could get Kirby from them that would be great. Outside of Seattle, Joe Ryan obviously intrests me, but I'm not sure the Twins are willing to give him up right now. Mitch Keller is under contract until 2029 and only 29. I'd test the waters on Jared Jones, particularly if we give them a few major league ready bats (Abreu, plus Garcia and I'd throw Campbell in for Jones). I'd be interested in Nick Lodolo but I'm weary about adding another lefty to the rotation. I'd talk to the Rays about Ryan Pepiot, but I'm not sure they'd be willing to move him. Tanner Bibee from Cleveladn would be fun, not sure how much they value him though and wouldn't be suprised if they valued him pretty heavily. Logan Allen and Luis Ortiz are also both young and controllable, and would probably be lower in cost. I'd call the Royals, maybe we could convince them to part ways with Ragans or Bubic.

From that wishlist, I could see Keller and Lodolo being available.  Not sure why Pitt would consider trading Jones; Hes the high control low cost type they look to acquire, not trade away.

KC certainly has the need for an OF. Bubic might be available.  Ditto Wacha.  I don’t see Ragans bringing readily available.

Cleveland normally swaps out aces like their changing underpants, but not sure what they’re going to do with Ortiz and Clase possibly both facing a lifetime ban…

 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

From that wishlist, I could see Keller and Lodolo being available.  

Cleveland normally swaps out aces like their changing underpants, but not sure what they’re going to do with Ortiz and Clase possibly both facing a lifetime ban…

 

CLE mighta made the playoffs with those two.

[moonslav59]

The trade list might include:

MN: Joe Ryan & Pablo Lopez

PIT: M Keller

MIA: Alcantara & Cabrera

CIN: Lodolo & Singer

STL: S Gray

TBR: Rasmussen, Baz, Pepiot (RP Fairbanks/ 1B Y Diaz)

KCR: Wacha, Lugo, Lorenzen

WSH: M Gore

BAL: D Kremer

LAA: Kikuchi

AZ? ERod, Burnes?

TEX? Nate, deGrom?

 

 

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's thrown less than 10 regular season innings above A ball. Who knows what he'll look like in the spring. 

I mean nobody can predict the future with pin point precision but scouts were rather impressed with him before his injury, he was on his way to being a top 100 prospect after making multiple BA hot sheets. 

Scouts who have seen him pitch since he's come back are still impressed with his stuff and he's hitting over 100 MPH. 

So yeah, he could be a dud but "who knows" well.... I think he's in a different category than other prosepects.  (E.G. most prospect people would probably agree Perales has much larger shot at making the majors next year than Myles Patton) When you have it you have it, not everyone has the ability to go from A to MLB but some do.  Payton Tolle didn't even throw a single pitch in A ball the year prior and he ended the year in Boston (same age as Perales).

Also, increasingly, the Red Sox (along with other teams) have become much more aggressive in promoting pitchers.  There's a sense that you're just wasting their bullets in the minors. 

If he can't find the strike zone he probably won't move as aggresively, but I won't be surprised when he's knocking on the door at the end of next year. 

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

Wink, Moran, Campbell are all probably going to be DFA'd. Hicks still has a lot of money tied to him (2 years, 12.5 AAV), so they're probably going to give him the longest leash. 

JFC I need to stop smoking so much weed.  My first reaction to this post was "WTF would they DFA Campbell?"  Then I remembered there are two Campbells on the roster. 

I think you're right about Hicks, he's on the books for 3 more years.  The Sox obviously see something in him they like and think they can tinker with.  They probably believe they can get him right with a full offseason in their program. 

[Old Red]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

JFC I need to stop smoking so much weed.  My first reaction to this post was "WTF would they DFA Campbell?"  Then I remembered there are two Campbells on the roster. 

I think you're right about Hicks, he's on the books for 3 more years.  The Sox obviously see something in him they like and think they can tinker with.  They probably believe they can get him right with a full offseason in their program. 

I think with Hicks it was more the Giants didn’t like what they saw in him more than Boston liked what they saw in him, and was just an unload for the Giants.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I think with Hicks it was more the Giants didn’t like what they saw in him more than Boston liked what they saw in him, and was just an unload for the Giants.

Without a doubt the Giants were sour on him, 100%.  Still, I don't think you take on that money if you don't somewhat believe in his arm.  Or maybe they just really really like Harrison that much?

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Without a doubt the Giants were sour on him, 100%.  Still, I don't think you take on that money if you don't somewhat believe in his arm.  Or maybe they just really really like Harrison that much?

I just think Brez wanted to get rid of Raffy so bad, and SF was willing to take on the whole contract.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean nobody can predict the future with pin point precision but scouts were rather impressed with him before his injury, he was on his way to being a top 100 prospect after making multiple BA hot sheets. 

Scouts who have seen him pitch since he's come back are still impressed with his stuff and he's hitting over 100 MPH. 

So yeah, he could be a dud but "who knows" well.... I think he's in a different category than other prosepects.  (E.G. most prospect people would probably agree Perales has much larger shot at making the majors next year than Myles Patton) When you have it you have it, not everyone has the ability to go from A to MLB but some do.  Payton Tolle didn't even throw a single pitch in A ball the year prior and he ended the year in Boston (same age as Perales).

Also, increasingly, the Red Sox (along with other teams) have become much more aggressive in promoting pitchers.  There's a sense that you're just wasting their bullets in the minors. 

If he can't find the strike zone he probably won't move as aggresively, but I won't be surprised when he's knocking on the door at the end of next year. 

There's a difference between "dud" and "impact starter" and "reliever." There has always been a question of if he's a late inning relief guy. The SP guys have said this for years. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I just think Brez wanted to get rid of Raffy so bad, and SF was willing to take on the whole contract.

They definitely wanted to offload that contract and I think they thought Raffy was becoming a cancer to the team (certianly the F.O. shoulders some blame for that). 

I do think they like Harrison.  Here is a guy who was a top 100 prospect just a year prior and still just 23 years old.  I think the Sox like his stuff and think they can tinker with him and figure it out.  If they do that and he's legit next year.....that's pretty much Quinn Preister, who is 1 year older than Harrison, a top 100 prospect, and struggling before he put it all together last year. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

There's a difference between "dud" and "impact starter" and "reliever." There has always been a question of if he's a late inning relief guy. The SP guys have said this for years. 

SP was also making the argument for him pitching in Boston this year.  That's how high they are on him.  I'm certain they would agree that if he looks good when he comes back that he's going to fly thru the system. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

SP was also making the argument for him pitching in Boston this year.  That's how high they are on him.  I'm certain they would agree that if he looks good when he comes back that he's going to fly thru the system. 

They weren't advocating him starting though!

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They weren't advocating him starting though!

No they weren't, they also weren't advocating him moving to the pen permanently.

But It's obviously a testament to how high they are on him. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No they weren't, they also weren't advocating him moving to the pen permanently.

But It's obviously a testament to how high they are on him. 

He also didn't pitch all that great in his first AFL start. It's fun to get excited. You need to be reasonable sometimes though. 

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I read a rumor of Duran + prospects for Lodolo (soon to turn 28.) Lodolo has 2 arbs left, so one less year of control, so maybe the added prospects will not need to be top prospects.

One has to worry if 2025 was an outlier for Lodolo, but he is trending up, while Duran downwards. His ERA+ went from 92 to 137, and his K/BB from 3.3 to 5.0. His FIP barely improved from 3.95 to 3.81. He is a lefty.

Would you call him a projected #2 (top 31-60) SP'er?

Lodolo might be a top 40% pitcher, but he has had health issues.

Duran plus prospects?  Lodolo is good, but fragile.  He is coming off a career year in which he made 29 starts, but outside of 2025, he’s been fairly mediocre.

I’d trade Duran for him straight up, although I could be talked out of that I’m so on the fence.  Duran PLUS PROSPECTS?  They better be bad prospects with missing limbs and glass eyes.

(BTV gives Duran a $73mill surplus value and Lodolo a $29mill.  This does mean Duran projects to be a far bigger impact player, probably across the board.)

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He also didn't pitch all that great in his first AFL start. It's fun to get excited. You need to be reasonable sometimes though. 

I don't think I'm being unreasonable.  

I'm not predicting Perales is going to pitch in Boston next year, if I HAD TO BET ON IT??? I'd certainly wager that he does not.  But he's arguably the most exciting pitching prospect we have in the system in terms of pure stuff and there's a reason why Soxprospects have kept him so high in their rankings.  I wouldn't say anyone pitched great or not great in 1.1 innings.  but 101 MPH is 101 MPH.  What I AM saying is if he has a good season he's going to fly up the system.

To say a top prospect might click, and if said top prospect does click they will move up the system is very reasonable. 

I get you're skeptical, as you should be.  Pitching prospects will break your heart.  

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think I'm being unreasonable.  

I get you're skeptical, as you should be.  Pitching prospects will break your heart.  

I wasn't saying YOU, I meant SoxProspects TBH. Some times that get out in front of their skis. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nowadays with so many pitchers throwing 100 mph, a guy isn't guaranteed to stay in the majors -- even if he throws strikes -- unless he also commands a change of pace, like a splitter, slider or sweeper. 

That's why Tolle is still a work in progress, and Mason Miller is an absolute beast.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Lodolo might be a top 40% pitcher, but he has had health issues.

Duran plus prospects?  Lodolo is good, but fragile.  He is coming off a career year in which he made 29 starts, but outside of 2025, he’s been fairly mediocre.

I’d trade Duran for him straight up, although I could be talked out of that I’m so on the fence.  Duran PLUS PROSPECTS?  They better be bad prospects with missing limbs and glass eyes.

(BTV gives Duran a $73mill surplus value and Lodolo a $29mill.  This does mean Duran projects to be a far bigger impact player, probably across the board.)

There's no rumor, just an article written by someone at Sports Illustrated, the place where 50% or more of the stuff is now AI generated. 🫡

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

There's no rumor, just an article written by someone at Sports Illustrated, the place where 50% or more of the stuff is now AI generated. 🫡

I think we can agree on the artificial part, but you’re being fairly generous with the “I” in that label….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I think we can agree on the artificial part, but you’re being fairly generous with the “I” in that label….

Indolence? Letting some other source do the work...

Or trusting an unreliable source: idiocy - insanity - inanity - imbelicika (I typed that in to confuse AI, who didn't recognize the word and had to admit he was an imbelice)