Dustin May trade regret?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not ideal, no,  but I think most rotations have a couple guys like that.  

Sure, but this is a team that wants to do damage in the playoffs and is trying to go for it, right? They were supposed to be buyers? It's not supposed to be like "most rotations" IMO. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but this is a team that wants to do damage in the playoffs and is trying to go for it, right? They were supposed to be buyers? It's not supposed to be like "most rotations" IMO. 

OK, but now look at the 4-5 pitchers on our 4 title winning teams.  Buehler and May probably stack up pretty well against them.

[moonslav59]

In some ways the May trade was like the Paxton trade: same team, same injury MO, same chances at success (and failure.)

Paxton lasted 2+ starts, before renewing what he did best: going on the IL. James did not pitch all that poorly in those 2+ starts, but he failed to give us what we needed.

Maybe, this one time, we will get some return on trade. (Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims looked better to me than Matz did, at the time of those trades, but let's hope we do better, this time on this one, too.)

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, but now look at the 4-5 pitchers on our 4 title winning teams.  Buehler and May probably stack up pretty well against them.

I'd rank them in order:

ERod/Eovaldi

Lowe/Arroyo

Peavy/Doubront

Schilling/Lester

May/Buehler a distant 6th

With how far runs have dropped off recently, I think Buehler is by far the worst pitcher listed and May probably second worst. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but this is a team that wants to do damage in the playoffs and is trying to go for it, right? They were supposed to be buyers? It's not supposed to be like "most rotations" IMO. 

I think the hope is you need about 3.5 SP'ers for the playoff format, and we may get by with just 3.

We gotta get there, first, and that's where we need to cobble together a decent 4-5 combo from Buehler, May, Criswell, Harrison & Fitts. Not all of these 5 will get starts, unless there are injuries or abject failures.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rank them in order:

ERod/Eovaldi

Lowe/Arroyo

Peavy/Doubront

Schilling/Lester

May/Buehler a distant 6th

With how far runs have dropped off recently, I think Buehler is by far the worst pitcher listed and May probably second worst. 

All depends on what criteria we use.  Lowe had a terrible season in 2004 but redeemed himself in the playoffs.  If he didn't have a great playoffs, you probably wouldn't be rating him that highly here.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

49 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All depends on what criteria we use.  Lowe had a terrible season in 2004 but redeemed himself in the playoffs.  If he didn't have a great playoffs, you probably wouldn't be rating him that highly here.

Lowe did what no one else on any Red Sox list ever did: beat the Yankees in the Bronx in Game Seven on two days rest.

It doesn't matter if Damon hit 5 homers, Lowe was better than all New York pitchers that day in that venue with the rabid ghosts of a century choking on their own saliva.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Lowe did what no one else on any Red Sox list ever did: beat the Yankees in the Bronx in Game Seven on two days rest.

It doesn't matter if Damon hit 5 homers, Lowe was better than all New York pitchers that day in that venue with the rabid ghosts of a century choking on their own saliva.

The twists of fate that postseason were incredible.  Lowe had basically been booted from the rotation entering the playoffs.  

For once the twists all went the Red Sox way.

[moonslav59]

I maintain that one of the biggest plusses of our ring year rotations was the lack of major injuries.

2004: All 5 SP'ers had 29-33 starts and 178+ IP. The ERAs were not impressive, but they showed up, every 5th day.

2007: 3 SP'ers had 30-32 GS, Schilling had 24, Tavarez 23 and Lester 12. Again, no really great ERAs and some pretty bad ones, but 6 starters had 152 GS.

2013: 4 SP'ers had 27-33 GS. Buch (16 GS) got hurt and the deadline addition, Peavy got 10 GS.

2018: 3 SP'ers had 27-33 GS, but wow: Sale, Price & Porcello. ERod had 23 and we picked up Nate at the deadline to add 11 more. (Johnson & PomPom had 24, combined.)

This year, 4 of our top 7-8 SP'er have missed all or almost all of 2025: Houck, Crawford, Sandoval & Dobbins. We do have 18-24 GS from 4 SP'ers, and 3 have ERAs between 2.48 & 3.77. I think that beats all other ring season top 3 SP'er combined ERAs by the top 3. Dobbins had 11, Houck 9 & Newcomb 5.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All depends on what criteria we use.  Lowe had a terrible season in 2004 but redeemed himself in the playoffs.  If he didn't have a great playoffs, you probably wouldn't be rating him that highly here.

Lowe's 89 ERA+ is the same as Dustin May's this year. However, he had a 4.26 FIP which when factoring in the era is so much better than how May has pitched this season. That FIP was in line with previous and subsequent years, so he probably was just unlucky in '04. Bonus points for throwing 180 innings. 

[Maxbialystock]

On 8/13/2025 at 8:48 AM, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but this is a team that wants to do damage in the playoffs and is trying to go for it, right? They were supposed to be buyers? It's not supposed to be like "most rotations" IMO. 

To be honest, I'm fine with making the playoffs.

I think Cora is a good manager in the playoffs.  He has a good lineup---hitting, defense, and baserunning.  And I think he has a good bullpen and 3 good starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito  Behind them Buehler and now May have had good starts against good teams. 

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

To be honest, I'm fine with making the playoffs.

I think Cora is a good manager in the playoffs.  He has a good lineup---hitting, defense, and baserunning.  And I think he has a good bullpen and 3 good starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito  Behind them Buehler and now May have had good starts against good teams. 

 

To me, it's just a wasted year if you don't try to load up when you expect to make the playoffs. 

[Kimmi]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, it's just a wasted year if you don't try to load up when you expect to make the playoffs. 

I understand wanting to load up and go for it, but at what cost?  Loading up doesn't guarantee anything.  Are you willing to set the farm back several years to do so?  I am not.

I really think Breslow was serious about getting someone like Ryan.  I just think the asking price was too high.

[Kimmi]

As far as having regrets about the May trade, it's too soon to know what we're going to get after two starts, one of which was pretty bad and the other of which was pretty good.  I was underwhelmed by the trade for him, but even if he doesn't work out at all, I can't say that I'd regret the trade in and of itself.

[moonslav59]

I wish we did better than M & M at the deadline, especially if it was a move for a longer controlled player, like Ryan or maybe Keller, but we don't know what was needed in return.

I think Brez made a lot of moves, this past winter, with the idea or plan that little would be done at the deadline, when prices are usually grossly exaggerated. Like it or not, I think that was a specific strategy.

They value their top prospects highly. They value their young and controlled 26 and 40 man roster players highly. Perhaps they place too much value, but I do think we could have worked to better balance the roster.

In a gross overpay period of time, we could have had someone grossly overpay for one of our OF'er than just break even vy grossly overpaying for a pitcher, 1Bman and or 2Bman. We end up with the same talent and team control as before, but with no or fewer bottlenecks.

It's easy to say this in theory, but I'm not going to bash Brez over not making this become a reality. I wish he did more, but I'm thrilled with what he did, last winter, so I'm happy with out chances, this season and probably happier about the future than if we had traded away Campbell, Arias, Jh Garcia or whoever for a rental.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I understand wanting to load up and go for it, but at what cost?  Loading up doesn't guarantee anything.  Are you willing to set the farm back several years to do so?  I am not.

I really think Breslow was serious about getting someone like Ryan.  I just think the asking price was too high.

I don't think the cost of acquiring a controllable starter at the deadline is reasonable. They needed to acquire a better short term guy. Ryan would be cheaper in the offseason, so pass for now. However, they didn't address the right side of the IF and it wouldn't have been very expensive to do so as we saw with other trades made around the league. It certainly wouldn't have set the farm back years. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nats DFA Nathaniel Lowe yesterday right after he hit a grand slam. They're activating Dylan Crews.

Here's one assessment I read this morning:

"Despite Crews' struggles, it makes more sense for the team to allow the 23-year-old to figure things out over the final two months over keeping a 30-year-old veteran who hasn't hit up to his usual standard. One of those guys might help them next season and beyond. Still, that has to sting for Lowe.

There's an opportunity for this whole thing to have a happy ending. Lowe could get claimed by a contender and wind up playing meaningful baseball down the stretch. Despite his struggles, Lowe does have an above average 104 wRC+ against righties this season. He could be a useful platoon bat for a team in need of power in the middle of a playoff race."

 

 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the cost of acquiring a controllable starter at the deadline is reasonable. They needed to acquire a better short term guy. Ryan would be cheaper in the offseason, so pass for now. 

So, now you agree with me, after blasting me for saying this a while ago.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nats DFA Nathaniel Lowe yesterday right after he hit a grand slam. They're activating Dylan Crews.

Here's one assessment I read this morning:

"Despite Crews' struggles, it makes more sense for the team to allow the 23-year-old to figure things out over the final two months over keeping a 30-year-old veteran who hasn't hit up to his usual standard. One of those guys might help them next season and beyond. Still, that has to sting for Lowe.

There's an opportunity for this whole thing to have a happy ending. Lowe could get claimed by a contender and wind up playing meaningful baseball down the stretch. Despite his struggles, Lowe does have an above average 104 wRC+ against righties this season. He could be a useful platoon bat for a team in need of power in the middle of a playoff race."

 

 

Jim Bowden said at the deadline that the Sox should consider trading Tolle for Lowe. 

“Last year [Nathaniel Lowe] slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers and 69 RBIs while playing plus defense at first base. This year with the Nationals, he’s hitting just .227 but has 12 doubles, 10 home runs and 45 RBIs in 75 games. He’d be an upgrade for the Sox, who would control him through 2026. Lowe would be a solid place holder until prospect James Tibbs III, acquired in the Devers trade, is ready for the majors.

“A second-round pick in 2024, Tolle has an eye-popping 70 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings this season in High A. This is the type of deal the Nationals need to make at the trade deadline: adding more power arms to their stable.”

Don't ever listen to that idiot please. Yes, we are all smarter than a former GM. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, now you agree with me, after blasting me for saying this a while ago.

This is not true. I didn't think they could/should acquire Ryan at the deadline. You're confusing me with someone else. I believe they should build the team in the offseason. The deadline is always prohibitively expensive. If the Twins were really doing a fire sale and Breslow could have traded for him without giving up Tolle, then fine. Twins weren't going to do that though. They also never provided the Sox with a serious offer per reports. 

[Hitch]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jim Bowden said at the deadline that the Sox should consider trading Tolle for Lowe. 

“Last year [Nathaniel Lowe] slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers and 69 RBIs while playing plus defense at first base. This year with the Nationals, he’s hitting just .227 but has 12 doubles, 10 home runs and 45 RBIs in 75 games. He’d be an upgrade for the Sox, who would control him through 2026. Lowe would be a solid place holder until prospect James Tibbs III, acquired in the Devers trade, is ready for the majors.

“A second-round pick in 2024, Tolle has an eye-popping 70 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings this season in High A. This is the type of deal the Nationals need to make at the trade deadline: adding more power arms to their stable.”

Don't ever listen to that idiot please. Yes, we are all smarter than a former GM. 

I cannot stand Bowden. He makes my skin crawl. A true savant of idiocy. 

How he continues to keep his job and be asked to give opinions on every podcast/show/editorial is beyond me,

[dannycater]

sounds like this Breslow guy is pushing the right buttons. May Day to the rescue

[notin]

On 8/13/2025 at 8:05 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

All depends on what criteria we use.  Lowe had a terrible season in 2004 but redeemed himself in the playoffs.  If he didn't have a great playoffs, you probably wouldn't be rating him that highly here.

And 2007 Lester was not yet the TOR starter history ultimately remembers him as.  18 years ago today, his ERA was 5.14.  And his next start was his worst of the season…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I cannot stand Bowden. He makes my skin crawl. A true savant of idiocy. 

How he continues to keep his job and be asked to give opinions on every podcast/show/editorial is beyond me,

He is good for fantasy advice, both baseball and football.  But there is a reason he gives fantasy advice on the radio as opposed to running MLB franchises any more…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

This is not true. I didn't think they could/should acquire Ryan at the deadline. You're confusing me with someone else. I believe they should build the team in the offseason. The deadline is always prohibitively expensive. If the Twins were really doing a fire sale and Breslow could have traded for him without giving up Tolle, then fine. Twins weren't going to do that though. They also never provided the Sox with a serious offer per reports. 

No. I wasn't talking about Ryan. When I made this same statement, you said something, like, "so we shouldn't have added a better SP'er pitcher, because we added them in winter."

[notin]

No Nate Lowe discussion?

 

I think to get him on the roster, the Sox would need to DFA Toro or.Ali Sánchez.  Lowe this year is a marginal (.732 OPS vs RHP) upgrade over Toro (.691 OPS vs RHP).  (I go Sánchez here.)

As Lowe is owed $2.5 mill or so for the remainder of the season, is he worth it?  He has another arb year left and will probably get a modest raise on his $10.3mill salary.  Of course, he could also just be non-tendered.  Especially since Casas isn’t dead yet.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

No Nate Lowe discussion?

 

I think to get him on the roster, the Sox would need to DFA Toro or.Ali Sánchez.  Lowe this year is a marginal (.732 OPS vs RHP) upgrade over Toro (.691 OPS vs RHP).  (I go Sánchez here.)

As Lowe is owed $2.5 mill or so for the remainder of the season, is he worth it?  He has another arb year left and will probably get a modest raise on his $10.3mill salary.  Of course, he could also just be non-tendered.  Especially since Casas isn’t dead yet.

Yes, they should trade Tolle for him. - Jim Bowden 🤪

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Jim Bowden said at the deadline that the Sox should consider trading Tolle for Lowe. 

“Last year [Nathaniel Lowe] slashed 

You had me at slashed... then I bled out.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, they should trade Tolle for him. - Jim Bowden 🤪

I’d prefer opinions from folks who deal in reality over those who advise in fantasy…

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Jim Bowden said at the deadline that the Sox should consider trading Tolle for Lowe. 

“Last year [Nathaniel Lowe] slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers and 69 RBIs while playing plus defense at first base. This year with the Nationals, he’s hitting just .227 but has 12 doubles, 10 home runs and 45 RBIs in 75 games. He’d be an upgrade for the Sox, who would control him through 2026. Lowe would be a solid place holder until prospect James Tibbs III, acquired in the Devers trade, is ready for the majors.

“A second-round pick in 2024, Tolle has an eye-popping 70 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings this season in High A. This is the type of deal the Nationals need to make at the trade deadline: adding more power arms to their stable.”

Don't ever listen to that idiot please. Yes, we are all smarter than a former GM. 

I am ok with the Sox considering that trade.  As long as the conclusion is “not even at gunpoint.”