Red Sox 2025 Trade Deadline Thread

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

We do tend to bunch up our runs at times.  That said, it's a good sign that we're typically not getting blown out in our losses, but we are able to win games by larger margins.

We are 15-23 in one run losses.  We are 21-10 in blowouts.  Pythagoras has still not caught up with us.

Here are the run totals of all the series we lost:

11-13 (lost 3 of 4 to TEX) Kinda bad luck

6-17 (lost 3 of 4 to TOR)

16-15 (lost 2 of 3 to SEA) Outscored them

18-13 (lost 2 of 3 to TOR) Two series in a row outscored them.

13-10 (lost 2 of 3 to MIN) 3 in a row!

---3 game totals: 47-38 but went 3-6.---

16-30 (swept by DET 3-0)

13-20 (lost 2 of 3 to ATL)

8-14 (lost all 3 to MIL)

20-20 (lost 2 of 3 to LAA)

14-17 (lost 2 of 3 to SFG)

9-17 (sept by LAA in 3.)

18-15 (lost 2 of 3 to TOR)

7-11 (lost 2 of 3 to CHC)

12-15 (lost 2 of 3 to PHI)

16-13 (lost 2 of 3 to SDP)

21-12 (lost 2 of 3 to HOU) Two in a row and the largest run diff in series loss.

Of the 16 series lost, we outscored our opps in 6 of them and tied in another. 

Split series:

27-17 (2-2 w BAL)

22-18 (2-2 w CWS)

The Rays outscored the Sox 20-8, but we took 2 of 3. SEA outscored us 9-5 and lost 2 of 3. We tied the NYM 6-6 and took 2 of 3- same w LAD 10-10 and we won 2 of 3.

Looks very unbalanced, to me.

[Hitch]

I've said it multiple times this year - that's the kind of record you get with an inexperienced team. I think it'll balance out a bit next year, but it'll keep happening as the season goes on. I think we'll likely lose in the play offs 2-1 or 3-1 while having a very similar runs scored/given up record on the series.

 

As an aside, I was thinking about next years roster and arbs. etc. I wouldn't be surprised if we're not bringing Tanner back. I know this organisation love buying out the injured year of a pitcher in the hope of getting a healthy second year, but I don't see much point paying Houck $4m+ next year just for a final arb year in which he might be okay. Even as I type this though, I can't see past the logic that they keep doing it, and $4m is not a lot. But I'd be leaving him walk personally.

[Hugh2]

On 7/31/2025 at 11:27 AM, vegasbob said:

I'm thinking that Breslow said, what the Sox need is another version of myself from 2013 and picked up  LH'er Matz.     Not a splash move but Matz could be a 2-3 inning opener , or a reliever taking some pressure off Bernardino.  

Will be surprised if Craig  does anything more significant .   The reality is that Breslow likes this roster and JH likes its cost.     So status quo reigns in the Nation.

They have two years of team control left with Tanner

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I've said it multiple times this year - that's the kind of record you get with an inexperienced team. I think it'll balance out a bit next year, but it'll keep happening as the season goes on. I think we'll likely lose in the play offs 2-1 or 3-1 while having a very similar runs scored/given up record on the series,

What does inexperience have to do with this kind of record?

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Please, no, to any Banana Ball rules coming to MLB.

Send a strongly worded letter to the Commissioner/Tinkerer. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What does inexperience have to do with this kind of record?

An inexperienced CBO wouldn't have traded for Jordan Hicks. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

An inexperienced CBO wouldn't have traded for Jordan Hicks. 

I don’t think Hicks was an option of he wanted to dump the entire contract…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think Hicks was an option of he wanted to dump the entire contract…

Breslow said in the press conference that taking on the whole contract wasn't necessary for the deal. 

[moonslav59]

No way do we cut our 2024 ace.

[moonslav59]

Why is this thread still given top spot priority?

It's hardly even a discussion about the deadline, which was two weeks+ ago.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is this thread still given top spot priority?

It's hardly even a discussion about the deadline, which was two weeks+ ago.

It's unpinned now.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What does inexperience have to do with this kind of record?

Because you get up and downs with inexperience. You'll get games where you blow out the opposition but then aren't quite street-smart enough to win 1-run/close games. This isn't a new, or controversial view point. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

They have two years of team control left with Tanner

Yes, but only one really, as he's out all of next year. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Because you get up and downs with inexperience. You'll get games where you blow out the opposition but then aren't quite street-smart enough to win 1-run games. This isn't a new, or remotely controversial view point. 

Well, it's an interesting take, but the 'street-smart' premise seems a little dubious to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Generally speaking when a team is losing a lot of one-run games the finger gets pointed at the manager.  

Personally I think too much of it is randomness to draw any conclusions one way or the other.

 

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow said in the press conference that taking on the whole contract wasn't necessary for the deal. 

Slightly vague statement.  Are you talking about Devers’ deal here?

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yes, but only one really, as he's out all of next year. 

I understand that, but by all accounts he will be fine to pitch in 2027.  Why wouldn’t you want to see what he can do? If he’s down performance was due to an injury this year and he’s anything close to what he was last year that’s lot of value.  
 

there’s almost zero risk and all upside in keeping him for 2027

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Generally speaking when a team is losing a lot of one-run games the finger gets pointed at the manager.  

Personally I think too much of it is randomness to draw any conclusions one way or the other.

 

 

 

It's not just 1-run games, it's close games. With experience comes a lot that younger players (and sometimes, teams) just don't have the ability to call on. There's also an added comfort level with different scenarios.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I understand that, but by all accounts he will be fine to pitch in 2027.  Why wouldn’t you want to see what he can do? If he’s down performance was due to an injury this year and he’s anything close to what he was last year that’s lot of value.  
 

there’s almost zero risk and all upside in keeping him for 2027

I'm not hugely against it, but bar a very good 3/4 months, he's not delivered incredible numbers at any point in his career. I'm just not enamoured with spending $4m to see if we get something in two years time. But then I'm a little jaded with all these reclamation projects.

That said, I don't feel strongly enough to care either way. If we do sign him so be it. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Generally speaking when a team is losing a lot of one-run games the finger gets pointed at the manager.  

Personally I think too much of it is randomness to draw any conclusions one way or the other.

 

 

 

I know we've beaten the line-up debate to death, and studies show changes make minimal impact, but I still wonder why Yoshida bats 5th and Abreu is often 6th or 7th. Abreu is our HR leader and has the most rbi per PA on the team (even more than Devers had.)

With OPS and SLG leader Bregman batting 2nd, Abreu should bat 4th or 5th. he's our second best batter. With lefty Duran batting 3rd, now, I can see wanting the RHB Story up 4th, and he's done very well, since April, so Abreu 5th is fine with me.

If Duran is ever moved back to leadoff, I'd put Abreu 3rd or 5th.

Yoshida and Toro should be considered for benching or worse. I might go with Romy FT at 1B, if Campbell is not given another chance. Maybe Romy plays 2B vs LHPs and Toro plays 1B those games, or we could DH Romy & Refsnyder. I'd consider JH Garcia at platoon DH with ref or Romy and demote Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

I'm not hugely against it, but bar a very good 3/4 months, he's not delivered incredible numbers at any point in his career. I'm just not enamoured with spending $4m to see if we get something in two years time. But then I'm a little jaded with all these reclamation projects.

That said, I don't feel strongly enough to care either way. If we do sign him so be it. 

He was our ace for most of 2024. He's got some nasty stuff - for real.

Although his first 3 seasons produced only 146 IP. he did have a 3.20 ERA and 2.95 FIP (1.23 WHIP.)

His 3.12 ERA/3.32 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 179 IP in 2024 was one of the best SP'er seasons by a Sox pitcher since Nate. He likely had an injury over the second half of 2024 which showed up, this year.

He had one bad season in 2023.

He's a keeper at $4M. Hell, we paid Hendriks & Paxton $5M, and Sandoval much more.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's not just 1-run games, it's close games. With experience comes a lot that younger players (and sometimes, teams) just don't have the ability to call on. There's also an added comfort level with different scenarios.

I get it, but it's just too anecdotal IMHO.  Plus the Red Sox average age is only a little below MLB average.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get it, but it's just too anecdotal IMHO.  Plus the Red Sox average age is only a little below MLB average.  

When the Sox have an "inexperienced" starting OFer who will be 29 next month, but can't track flyballs. 

[mvp 78]

Young and inexperienced Duran entering FA after his 4th ARB year.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Send a strongly worded letter to the Commissioner/Tinkerer. 

That’s how I got my restraining order…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s how I got my restraining order…

Well, you shouldn't have quoted Ted Kaczynski in it for starters. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, you shouldn't have quoted Ted Kaczynski in it for starters. 

Should have spelled it Ted Kluszewski.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get it, but it's just too anecdotal IMHO.  Plus the Red Sox average age is only a little below MLB average.  

Many teams have a handful of older players that bring up the average age, but with the Sox, almost all of our older players, except Chapman and refsnyder are not key players, and Ref is a short-side platoon guy.

37 Chapman (last year of control)

36 Hendriks (hardly knew ya)

37 Wilson (last year)

34 Refsnyder (last year) & Matz (rental)

32 Story (2 more years)

31 Bregman (opt out?)

31 Yoshida (2 more years)

30 Buehler (5th starter- last year)

30 Giolito (140 IP option trigger)

30 Weissert & Kelly

29 Houck, Wong & Whitlock

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get it, but it's just too anecdotal IMHO.  Plus the Red Sox average age is only a little below MLB average.  

It's not about age so much, but about experience. When Duran is seen as one of our veterans it says it all. Hell, even Abreu is considered one of the main stays and is in only his 2nd full year same for Rafaela. Anthony is in year 1, as are Navarez and Mayer too. That's 2/3 of the starting line up. Even our ace is only in his first full year as a starter after getting shut down half way through last year.

I'm not complaining about any of this - I love it. But it comes with trade offs in the early years.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's not about age so much, but about experience. When Duran is seen as one of our veterans it says it all. Hell, even Abreu is considered one of the main stays and is in only his 2nd full year same for Rafaela. Anthony is in year 1, as are Navarez and Mayer too. That's 2/3 of the starting line up. Even our ace is only in his first full year as a starter after getting shut down half way through last year.

I'm not complaining about any of this - I love it. But it comes with trade offs in the early years.

It's also about how old are your top players and how many years of control do they have?

26 Crochet- 6 years

21 Anthony -9 yrs

31 Bregman -1-3 years

24 Rafaela 6 yrs

28 Duran 3

26 Narvaez 5

26 Abreu 4

26 Bello 5

32 Story 2

37 Chapman 0

30 Giolito 0-1

29 Whitlock  1

22 Mayer 5

23 Campbell 9

27 Slaten 5

25 Dobbins 5

29 Crawford 3

28 Sandoval 1

29 Houck 2 (IL for 1)

28 Romy 3

34 Refsnyder 0

Look how few are under control beyond prime.