Bowden: Jarren Duran Included In Trade Talks, Preferred Outfield Starters Revealed

[Alex Mayes]

Jim Bowden of The Athletic published a piece on what he's hearing with ten days until the trade deadline. In it, he noted that the Red Sox are still discussing Jarren Duran with other teams, but they don't feel as though they have to trade him. He further notes that the Padres and Phillies have been connected to Duran, and the front office would like to receive a starting pitcher or a first baseman in return, if the deal is right. Like has been mentioned before, the Padres don't match up well with the Red Sox unless the Sox were willing to take back an expiring contract like Michael King, Dylan Cease, or if a third team were to get involved—Bowden mentions the Marlins and Edward Cabrera—then it's possible a deal could get done. 

What may command more attention than the trade rumor though, is that the team feels that their best outfield lineup is Wilyer Abreu in right, Ceddanne Rafaela in center, and Roman Anthony in left. In the long-term, this is the strongest outfield the team can run out on a nightly basis as it is centered on young talent with high ceilings. Duran's future in Boston is even cloudier as he's 28 years old and not viewed as a full-time DH candidate. 

What do you think? Should Duran be the odd man out in the outfield if the Sox do decide to trade away pieces from the major league roster? Sound off in the comments below!

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Bowden is clueless.  Nobody should consider a platoon hitter as part of the best outfield and they don't.  His reporting days ended years ago.

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Bowden is clueless.  Nobody should consider a platoon hitter as part of the best outfield and they don't.  His reporting days ended years ago.

What exactly makes you think Abreu is a platoon hitter and Duran isn't?  You've been saying this over and over.  But Duran's numbers against lefties are lousy too.

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Bowden is clueless.  Nobody should consider a platoon hitter as part of the best outfield and they don't.  His reporting days ended years ago.

Agree about Bowden.

Disagree about Wilyer being a platoon, but Duran not being a platoon hitter. Duran has been worse against LHP than Abreu this season. It's not clear cut that one is better than the other, so it isn't fair to paint in such a broad stroke IMO. It's just personal preference. Overall, they are about the same to me, so it's up to Breslow to choose. 

[drewski6]

My issue is with the notion that we should see the age of 28 as a reason to move him.  Are we punting on the next 3 years? Is this the next guy up is always going to be better hype fallacy.  Moving on from Duran because of where he is in his development cycle (current prime) is like saying you dont expect this team to compete until hes past prime , so like wait another 3-4 years.  And then there will prob be guys like Cedanne and Wilyer and Crochet that we'd have to move because uh-oh turned 28.

Prime is usually 26-31.  You should want 28 year olds unles you feel like we are years out.  More than anything, its a reach to declare him the odd man out because its hard right now because none of them look like the odd man out. My vote = hoard.

[drewski6]

Do these guys know that we dont *HAVE* to wait until the deadline. Like Ive said before, my concern is that our playoff chances will fade between when I first declared this (immediately after Devers trade) and the deadline.  I was concerned that we would be about .500 at the deadline and make our moves then and it would be almost futile because of so many teams to pass.  

For a few reasons, Yankees and Seattle stinking, an easy part of the schedule, us playing great for a spell.  It looked like my concerns were overblown and we could easily hold it down until reinforcements.  But now Im getting itchy again.  Worrying that our playoff chances are going to get murky again.  Its prob the schedule more than anything.  Funny how much better we look vs Nats/Col then vs ChCubs/Phills/LAD (upcoming)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Do these guys know that we dont *HAVE* to wait until the deadline. Like Ive said before, my concern is that our playoff chances will fade between when I first declared this (immediately after Devers trade) and the deadline.  I was concerned that we would be about .500 at the deadline and make our moves then and it would be almost futile because of so many teams to pass.  

I said the same thing about needing reinforcements asap to get through this toughest stretch of the sked.

Unfortunately, all the GMs are stubborn as hell and ask for heaven and purgatory to deal any useful trade candidates one second earlier than the damn deadline. 

And by then, it's always too late. Chaim.

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Do these guys know that we dont *HAVE* to wait until the deadline. Like Ive said before, my concern is that our playoff chances will fade between when I first declared this (immediately after Devers trade) and the deadline.  I was concerned that we would be about .500 at the deadline and make our moves then and it would be almost futile because of so many teams to pass.  

For a few reasons, Yankees and Seattle stinking, an easy part of the schedule, us playing great for a spell.  It looked like my concerns were overblown and we could easily hold it down until reinforcements.  But now Im getting itchy again.  Worrying that our playoff chances are going to get murky again.  Its prob the schedule more than anything.  Funny how much better we look vs Nats/Col then vs ChCubs/Phills/LAD (upcoming)

The reason the Sox are waiting is the selling teams are waiting until all offers are in so they make sure they get the best deal.  It takes two to trade…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The reason the Sox are waiting is the selling teams are waiting until all offers are in so they make sure they get the best deal.  It takes two to trade…

And they need to see if they fall apart and need to deal half their roster on the 31st. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

12 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What exactly makes you think Abreu is a platoon hitter and Duran isn't?  You've been saying this over and over.  But Duran's numbers against lefties are lousy too.

The difference in the analysis is yours is a short time frame and I consider the player as a whole.  It's like judging a month of defense by Devers and concluding he's a decent third baseman comparable to a guy like Bregman or Arenado who is having a bad month.  To me, that's not a valid comparison.

Abreu in his short career has 645 at bats versus RH pitchers with 174 hits and a .270 average

Abreu has 111 at bats versus LH pitchers with 22 hits and a .198 average (72 points lower)

Duran in his slightly longer career has 1266 at bats versus RH pitchers with 355 hits and a .280 average

Duran has 457 at bats versus LH pitchers with 107 hits and a .234 average (46 points lower).

ALSO, note that Abreu has 645 at bats versus RH pitchers and Duran has 1266 so Abreu has 51% as many at bats versus RH pitchers compared to Duran.  Abreu has 111 at bats versus LH pitchers and Duran has 457 so Abreu has 24% as many at bats versus LH pitchers.   

I'm not the one declaring Abreu is a platoon hitter the Red Sox are based on their splits.   I am simply confirming what they are doing.  They treat him like a platoon player because his average vs LH pitchers is under .200.

Why keep beating this dead horse.  The facts are the facts and you simply can't accept them.  That doesn't make them wrong!!  

Next time blame the Red Sox not me.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Agree about Bowden.

Disagree about Wilyer being a platoon, but Duran not being a platoon hitter. Duran has been worse against LHP than Abreu this season. It's not clear cut that one is better than the other, so it isn't fair to paint in such a broad stroke IMO. It's just personal preference. Overall, they are about the same to me, so it's up to Breslow to choose. 

Duran will always be a better fielder but Abreu has a better arm.  You can't put Abreu in CF like you can Duran with great success so I consider Duran a significantly better hitter based on what he's ACTUALLY done so far in his career and a better defender based on the numbers. 

Weighting recent at bats is not really a valid approach to comparing anything other than recent games.  Players get hot and cold throughout the season and Abreu is known for his first halves so his numbers are very likely to fall and the more he bats against the LH pitchers the worse his numbers will become in the second half.  Lets verify things when the season is over and see how big the gap is then.  My guess is it will be back to where it was at the start of the season or it might be greater since Duran is improving as the season goes on and Abreu's trend is usually down.

[Maxbialystock]

13 hours ago, drewski6 said:

My issue is with the notion that we should see the age of 28 as a reason to move him.  Are we punting on the next 3 years? Is this the next guy up is always going to be better hype fallacy.  Moving on from Duran because of where he is in his development cycle (current prime) is like saying you dont expect this team to compete until hes past prime , so like wait another 3-4 years.  And then there will prob be guys like Cedanne and Wilyer and Crochet that we'd have to move because uh-oh turned 28.

Prime is usually 26-31.  You should want 28 year olds unles you feel like we are years out.  More than anything, its a reach to declare him the odd man out because its hard right now because none of them look like the odd man out. My vote = hoard.

You make a very good point about his age.  I think the real issue is that his hitting is down from last year, plus now his defense is suspect.   Last year his WAR was 8.7 and right now it's 2.4.  

However, Duran leads the Sox in games played and--wait for it--total freaking bases (177).  He is 2d in runs scored and 4th in rbi's and of course leads in triple and doubles.  

The OP is right.  Duran gets traded only if the Sox get real value in return.  

[mvp 78]

A little update:

 

[mvp 78]

Sean McAdam of MassLive provides further details on the situation surrounding Duran. He suggests that while a deal involving Duran is “likely” at some point, the Red Sox are inclined to hold off on making such a deal until the offseason. McAdam then goes on to note that the Padres offered Boston a three-player package of right-hander Dylan Cease, top catching prospect Ethan Salas, and an additional prospect not named Leo De Vries that was “quickly rejected.” That’s a fairly significant offer, particularly given the fact that the Red Sox had reportedly expressed interest in Cease previously in conversations with San Diego this summer.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sean McAdam of MassLive provides further details on the situation surrounding Duran. He suggests that while a deal involving Duran is “likely” at some point, the Red Sox are inclined to hold off on making such a deal until the offseason. McAdam then goes on to note that the Padres offered Boston a three-player package of right-hander Dylan Cease, top catching prospect Ethan Salas, and an additional prospect not named Leo De Vries that was “quickly rejected.” That’s a fairly significant offer, particularly given the fact that the Red Sox had reportedly expressed interest in Cease previously in conversations with San Diego this summer.

as it should have been. trading Duran for two months of very meh pitcher in Cease and a couple of prospects is insanity.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

as it should have been. trading Duran for two months of very meh pitcher in Cease and a couple of prospects is insanity.

If we traded Duran for Cease and Abreu in a larger deal for Ryan, we'd have no offense, but the pitching would be:

Crochet day

Cease day

Ryan day

Bello day

Giolito day

It looks great on MLB the Show! 

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If we traded Duran for Cease and Abreu in a larger deal for Ryan, we'd have no offense, but the pitching would be:

Crochet day

Cease day

Ryan day

Bello day

Giolito day

It looks great on MLB the Show! 

i'm ok with a trade for Ryan as long as we don't overpay. i'll pass on Cease unless it's for prospects. no way in hell i'd trade Duran for 2 months of Cease -who i really don't consider to be that good anyway.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm ok with a trade for Ryan as long as we don't overpay. i'll pass on Cease unless it's for prospects. no way in hell i'd trade Duran for 2 months of Cease -who i really don't consider to be that good anyway.

Cease can be very frustrating to watch. I think it would cause at least one of our older posters to die during a gamethread. I agree about Ryan too.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cease can be very frustrating to watch. I think it would cause at least one of our older posters to die during a gamethread. I agree about Ryan too.

aren't we all "older"? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Gotta give the board credit - no one threw a fit when Naylor was traded to Seattle. 

It's pretty obvious pitching is the priority to make legitimate upgrades for a legitimate run.

[mvp 78]

I still think one of the OFers should get traded this offseason, but I don't really think it needs to be Duran. His personality fits with Boston and the team. Now that Anthony has shown that he can play an above average RF at Fenway, I think moving on from Abreu (or other OFer) is far from a deal breaker. 

[Jasonbay44]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I still think one of the OFers should get traded this offseason, but I don't really think it needs to be Duran. His personality fits with Boston and the team. Now that Anthony has shown that he can play an above average RF at Fenway, I think moving on from Abreu (or other OFer) is far from a deal breaker. 

I think if they end up moving an outfielder it should be Abreu. Anthony is obviously not going anywhere and I think Duran is a huge part of the clubhouse and culture. I’d prefer to keep him. I also doubt Rafaela gets moved due to how much Cora loves him and his versatility . 

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I still think one of the OFers should get traded this offseason, but I don't really think it needs to be Duran. His personality fits with Boston and the team. Now that Anthony has shown that he can play an above average RF at Fenway, I think moving on from Abreu (or other OFer) is far from a deal breaker. 

I'm coming more and more around to the idea that we keep the four of them. There's a great mix of speed, power and defense there. Let Refsnyder go this year. Find a way to move Masa. Have Password as the 5th outfielder and sign the starting pitching. Free's up our DH spot so we can adapt depending on the pitcher. 

I do think it's likely one goes though.