Article: Jarren Duran Needs a Change of Scenery

[Alex Mayes]

Last week, The Athletic published a list of the top 30 trade candidates ahead of the trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox were well represented with Jarren Duran sitting in the first overall spot, Wilyer Abreu at seventh, Aroldis Chapman at 17 (as the first reliever on the list), and Walker Buehler at 19. While there are merits to trade each of these players, Duran sitting atop that list is telling, and the Red Sox need to capitalize on his position. 

It’s no secret to fans and to teams around the league that Jarren Duran is failing to live up to the hype he built during his incredible 2024 season. He’s currently slashing .257/.309/.406 with 15 stolen bases and five home runs. He’s been demoted from full-time leadoff hitter to only leading off against right-handed pitchers, sliding down to fifth or six in the lineup against lefties. Out of all qualified hitters on the roster, Duran has the lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers at .251. His wRC+? Also the lowest on the team among qualified hitters at 51. In short, he’s a liability at the plate when he faces a southpaw. If he’s on the roster, he would be better served as a late-inning replacement when the opposition has hopefully gone to a right-handed reliever. 

Where the Red Sox could really stand to rid themselves on Duran, though, is on defense. As of this writing, Duran is good for one defensive run saved, -4 outs above average, and -5.4 defense runs above average. We talked about this on the latest episode of The Talk Sox Podcast, but it’s almost unfathomable how he’s gone from a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in 2024 to the biggest defensive liability on the major league roster. Currently, Duran has five errors on the season, and you don’t have to look further than the Giants series to find errors that directly resulted in losses for the Red Sox. It would be one thing if his errors came on balls that were challenging to catch, but they often look like errors you’d see if you were watching a high school game. We’re beginning to see glimpses of the Jarren Duran who couldn’t make routine plays from yesteryear. That doesn’t bode well for the overall success of the team. While his replacement in left field won’t be up for any Gold Gloves this year, there’s room for improvement on both sides of the ball. 

On top of everything else, moving Duran opens the door for Roman Anthony to shift to left field, which is the position he needs to be playing for the big league club. Anthony looks impressive at the plate, despite a batting average below the Mendoza line. He seems primed to break out at any point with the amount of hard contact he’s making. He looks too slow to play an effective right field in Boston, though. He’s a rookie, so I’m willing to give him a large runway to get his feet under him at the big league level, but he’s going to be most impactful in left field. He roamed right field for the WooSox, but right field there features a wall modeled after the Green Monster. It makes the most sense for the team to package Duran in a trade to upgrade the starting rotation and let Roman Anthony shift across the outfield for the position he will be playing for years to come. 

I’ve long held the notion that the Red Sox don’t envision Jarren Duran as a building block of the future. They missed the prime chance to capitalize on his value by not trading him during the offseason, but they need to make up for that as we approach the deadline. You could argue that maybe Wilyer Abreu should be dealt instead, given his theoretical higher trade value. In reality, you want a huge arm in right field, and Duran doesn’t have one while Abreu does, plus Abreu is younger and has a higher ceiling than Duran, even if he hasn’t completely put all the pieces together like Duran did last year.

And that's the point. Jarren Duran likely will never sniff the season he had in 2024 again. He shouldn't be long for Boston based on the extension he agreed to — that $8 million club option should be a no-brainer for another team — so it’s time to cut rank with him and give him a chance to shine in a different market.

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[mvp 78]

Trade him to MIL for Peralta and Hoskins. If Hoskins plays well down the stretch, re-sign him next year. 

[JerryL1042]

Here's a novel idea instead of trading him have the coaching staff work with him on his weaknesses. Last time I checked that's what they are being paid to do. If they can't do their jobs maybe they should be the ones moved.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, JerryL1042 said:

Here's a novel idea instead of trading him have the coaching staff work with him on his weaknesses. Last time I checked that's what they are being paid to do. If they can't do their jobs maybe they should be the ones moved.

We don't know that they're not doing their jobs, though.  Maybe Duran just doesn't take instruction well, or maybe he has a hard time keeping his head in the game.  

[Alex Mayes]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We don't know that they're not doing their jobs, though.  Maybe Duran just doesn't take instruction well, or maybe he has a hard time keeping his head in the game.  

I think that’s where we’re at with Duran. It seems pretty obvious last year was an outlier and this is his actual ceiling. If teams want to pay for him, send him on. 

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Trade him to MIL for Peralta and Hoskins. If Hoskins plays well down the stretch, re-sign him next year. 

I think Philly makes a lot of sense for him too. Maybe even the Braves if they think they have an outside shot at making the wild card this season. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, JerryL1042 said:

Here's a novel idea instead of trading him have the coaching staff work with him on his weaknesses. Last time I checked that's what they are being paid to do. If they can't do their jobs maybe they should be the ones moved.

They spent A LOT of time working on defense with him. YEARS. He just doesn't concentrate when he's in the field. He still doesn't take good routes. They spent a lot of time tweaking his swing to maximize him at the plate. It worked last year, but he's definitely regressed to '23 or worse this year. 

Sometimes it's the player, not the coaching. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

I think Philly makes a lot of sense for him too. Maybe even the Braves if they think they have an outside shot at making the wild card this season. 

Attitude wise, he could be a good fit in Philly with DD who drafted him. I want what's best for him and Cora is as supportive of him than any manager could be, but it's just not working out. 

[dannycater]

I thought Duran was part of the youth movement...so this is another example that maybe better off relying on veteran talent. Okay, duly noted. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, dannycater said:

I thought Duran was part of the youth movement...so this is another example that maybe better off relying on veteran talent. Okay, duly noted. 

Youth movement? He's older than Devers. 

[mvp 78]

 Craig, make the call. 

[a700hitter]

Here’s a novel idea.  Maybe putting some good players around him will boost his attitude and performance.

[dannycater]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Youth movement? He's older than Devers. 

He led the AL in ABs, doubles, triples just last year. He's 28, I guess on the Sox that's over the hill.

[dannycater]

Just now, a700hitter said:

Here’s a novel idea.  Maybe putting some good players around him will boost his attitude and performance.

Exactly. This team is a joke because they have zero consistency in the lineup with guys who are in and out of lineup on still platoon basis no matter what. No star hitters left other than Bregman. Duran at least has the ability to do some good things at the plate and can run the bases even though he won't match 2024 or may never match that. But he's in the prime of his career starting now. So naturally trade him too.

[ocaladick]

I fell in love with his speed and hitting last year. He is not that far off in the field, although I saw the error in SanFran - he should have called off the 3B player (maybe he did and the 3B did not hear him) but that is just not playing with him enough to know his capabilities. I believe he will be fine - but you could move him to right field and dump Abreu - I have no confidence in him. Duran will go with the pitch, Abreu just wants to pull it. If the team starts playing as a team, they can be really good. Sacrificing yourself by hitting to right field to move a runner from second to third, doing what you have to do to win instead of building your batting average would be great! Mainly, these guys have to learn how to hit a curve ball - or a slider - and stay off the ones outside of the strike zone. Reminds me of "Major League" when the big gy could not hit a curve ball. Sad...

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, dannycater said:

He led the AL in ABs, doubles, triples just last year. He's 28, I guess on the Sox that's over the hill.

28 is not a YOUTH MOVEMENT though. 

[mvp 78]

Jim Rice was 28 in 1981. Nobody was like, "boy this guy needs more time..."

[dannycater]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Jim Rice was 28 in 1981. Nobody was like, "boy this guy needs more time..."

right, but Rice was a rookie in 1974 (came up for the last month) and Duran literally played his first full season as a regular in 2024...in MLB years, he is at age 5 overall--24 when he got his first ABs in 2021...completely different than a Devers, Rice, Lynn..guys who were already bashing balls for years before age 28. Duran is just becoming a true MLB player and he has All-Star on his resume. 

[dannycater]

But let's just say that if the Sox want to "blow it up," it's blow up what? They have a s***** overall roster, pitching is mostly bad after one great SP and one great closer

[Duran Is The Man]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 Craig, make the call. 

oh look, the GM of the first place Philllies -a guy that actually knows how to put together a winning team. too bad we don't have a GM like that.

[dannycater]

Maybe should have tried to sign an actual power hitter when they had a chance in Schwarber

WHO AT AGE 29 led MLB with 46 HR, 94 RBI because the Sox as usual didn't value a star power swinger..sure he had a bad season after that but even at .197 he had 47, 104, then 38, 104, and now 24, 55 with a .920 OPS...way to go Sox, go get Yoshida and Story!!!....idiots.. His average would be 25 points higher in Fenway. 

[Hitch]

I go back and forth on the Duran thing all the time. I love the speed he brings and I do think he's a better hitter than we've seen this year. He was decent in CF, but he's poor in left, doesn't take good routes and I hold my breath every time anything is hit to him. 

I really like the kid and would love to see him lead off here and do the business, but I am starting to shift towards getting pitching for him and go with the other (younger) players we have here.

We can't keep all our position players, and he is starting to be come the obvious trade piece. 

[dannycater]

At this point, it doesn't matter what the Sox do...the AL might suck, but they gave up on 2025 already. Trade them all, who cares. Look what Crochet might get back??? Wow, what a haul...which would then continue the clown car too. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, dannycater said:

right, but Rice was a rookie in 1974 (came up for the last month) and Duran literally played his first full season as a regular in 2024...in MLB years, he is at age 5 overall--24 when he got his first ABs in 2021...completely different than a Devers, Rice, Lynn..guys who were already bashing balls for years before age 28. Duran is just becoming a true MLB player and he has All-Star on his resume. 

And Duran will have a much shorter career since he was a rookie at 26. Not much reason to put a lot of effort into developing him, especially when what you do try to provide him just washes right over him and doesn't stick. Stop making excuses for these players. Duran has been in the system and playing OF since 2018. How many more years does he need to figure it out? 

[dannycater]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

And Duran will have a much shorter career since he was a rookie at 26. Not much reason to put a lot of effort into developing him, especially when what you do try to provide him just washes right over him and doesn't stick. Stop making excuses for these players. Duran has been in the system and playing OF since 2018. How many more years does he need to figure it out? 

the DH spot is open for Yoshida

[mvp 78]

Per Statcast, Jarren has Matthew Lugo sprint speed this season. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, dannycater said:

the DH spot is open for Yoshida

Cora benched Masa last year for like 2 straight weeks when he was healthy. He'll do the same for Duran if he needs the PA's. 

[harmony]

Jarren Duran entered the season as a projected 4-win player at ZiPS:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

... but has posted only 0.7 fWAR to date with a ZiPS projection of 1.2 WAR the remainder of the season:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

Baseball Trade Values still assigns Duran a surplus value of $54.1 million as Duran approaches his 29th birthday in September:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=jarren&page=1

 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, harmony said:

Jarren Duran entered the season as a projected 4-win player at ZiPS:

ZiPS projected a 1.2 win season for Wilyer which I crowed about all offseason. He's already at 1.3. The projections are nonsense IMO. 

[jdc69]

Its Cora and the FO. They want the players to play well while constantly undermining them.