A thread about pitcher W-L records

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's not punitive, but not letting Bello work out of those jams isn't rewarding him, either. 

I did say the point was the match-ups, but isn't confidence a factor in the development of young pitchers? 

To put it another way, does Bello ever look overconfident?

Letting him get hit around after he's thrown to is pitch limit isn't going to help him either. I think he should have worked out of the Brewers jam. Which other one should he have kept going in? At some point, we can't blame Cora for having to pull Bello in the 5th inning if he's at 90 pitches and has runners on. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

They talk about Bello trying to be perfect with his pitches but don't the Red Sox value strike out outs, over contact outs? That will produce more pitches per inning, which puts arm stress on the whole staff by the end of the year.

Bello only has a 6.5 k/9 this year. That's 112 out of 135 starters that have thrown 40+ IP. If they're trying to make him a strikeout pitcher, they've got the wrong coaching staff. 

[mvp 78]

Bello's bigger problem is that he's 4th out of 135 starters in bb/9 with 4.95! He has the second worst K-BB% in MLB. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What was Bello's out pitch or pitches in his formative years, when he posted these W-L, ERA, WHIP?

2022 Greenville High A:  5-0, 2.27, 1.011 

2023 Portland AA:           4-2, 1.69, 0.80

2023 Worcester AAA:      6-2, 2.76, 1.193   

[moonslav59]

Pretty amazing though...

4.2 IP Bello x 3, Newcomb x 2, Gio x 1, Dobbins x 1, Houck x 1

4.1 IP Bello x 1, Buehler x 1

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has this...

At his best, will flash three at least above-average pitches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Has done a great job improving his delivery and command to the point where you can comfortably project him as a starter. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. Attacks hitters with a plan and has multiple pitches he is confident using against hitters. Against right-handed hitters, throws a lot of two-seamers and sliders, while against lefties he tends to go more with four-seam fastballs up and changeups down. Has pitches that break in all four directions and can be used in any quadrant. Has had allowed more hard contact to lefties than righties and that is something worth watching as he reaches the major league level

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What was Bello's out pitch or pitches in his formative years, when he posted these W-L, ERA, WHIP?

2021 Greenville High A:  5-0, 2.27, 1.011 

2022 Portland AA:           4-2, 1.69, 0.80

2022 Worcester AAA:      6-2, 2.76, 1.193   

GRE - 6 start sample

POR - 7 start sample

WOO - less than 60 innings

I'm not sure what that could tell you about how he'd pitch in majors 3 years later. I fixed the dates for you. 

GRE '19 5.43 ERA (Low A before SAL and GRE flipped)

POR '21 4.66 ERA

POR '24 6.75 ERA

POR '25 8.31 ERA

WOO '25 6.52 ERA

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Soxprospects.com has this...

At his best, will flash three at least above-average pitches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Has done a great job improving his delivery and command to the point where you can comfortably project him as a starter. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. Attacks hitters with a plan and has multiple pitches he is confident using against hitters. Against right-handed hitters, throws a lot of two-seamers and sliders, while against lefties he tends to go more with four-seam fastballs up and changeups down. Has pitches that break in all four directions and can be used in any quadrant. Has had allowed more hard contact to lefties than righties and that is something worth watching as he reaches the major league level

Scouting report seems to be the same now? IDK

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pretty amazing though...

4.2 IP Bello x 3, Newcomb x 2, Gio x 1, Dobbins x 1, Houck x 1

4.1 IP Bello x 1, Buehler x 1

4.2 is a popular time to pull guys now because of the combo of the 3rd time through the order thing and the "last out of the inning"  exception to the 3 batter rule. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

4.2 is a popular time to pull guys now because of the combo of the 3rd time through the order thing and the "last out of the inning"  exception to the 3 batter rule. 

Yes, but when you let guys on base as much as Bello and the guys I listed, you reach the 3rd time through before you get to 4.2, and the 3rd time through is the top of the order.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Scouting report seems to be the same now? IDK

Yup. 3 decent pitches that sometimes one rises to the level of an out pitch, but no clear "gotcha" pitch.

The guy has had 77 MLB GS'd. He just turned 26, so he has a little room to improve as he enters prime, but how soon is now?

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but when you let guys on base as much as Bello and the guys I listed, you reach the 3rd time through before you get to 4.2, and the 3rd time through is the top of the order.

Cora is giving him enough leash to get into trouble and then gives the escape route to someone else. Seems fine to me for a guy with one of the worst bb rates in MLB. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

GRE - 6 start sample

POR - 7 start sample

WOO - less than 60 innings

I'm not sure what that could tell you about how he'd pitch in majors 3 years later. I fixed the dates for you. 

GRE '19 5.43 ERA (Low A before SAL and GRE flipped)

POR '21 4.66 ERA

POR '24 6.75 ERA

POR '25 8.31 ERA

WOO '25 6.52 ERA

Classic post picking stats to show the opposite of another poster's stats.

The three samples I listed were when Bello mastered each level and proved he was ready for the next.

The two you listed were first stints at each level the year before he established himself there (or before Covid). The last three were obviously rehab starts, where stats mean as much as in Spring Training.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Classic post picking stats to show the opposite of another poster's stats.

The three samples I listed were when Bello mastered each level and proved he was ready for the next.

The two you listed were first stints at each level the year before he established himself there (or before Covid). The last three were obviously rehab starts, where stats mean as much as in Spring Training.

What does mastering a level prove that you can do at an especially harder level (MLB)? A pitch that works in A or AA may not necessarily even be playable in MLB. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What does mastering a level prove that you can do at an especially harder level (MLB)? A pitch that works in A or AA may not necessarily even be playable in MLB. 

The most common advice big league players, coaches and managers tell a rookie when he's first called up is, "Be yourself."

Sometimes that only works for so long, but those who make constant adjustments stick around. We don't remember those that can't.

If you're Frank Tanana and arm issues suddenly prevent your fastball from striking out batters like Nolan Ryan, you can't be yourself anymore. So be Bill Lee.

If you're slumping Rich Gedman and a coach changes your stance, you still can't be George Brett. So be a coach yourself.

[illinoisredsox]

5 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Obviously you want your pitchers to get wins as it means your team is winning but I don’t value them much overall. If a pitcher is on a bad team there is a high likelihood that they will have a win/loss that doesn’t reflect their stats at all.

for example. Garrett Crotchet in his career has a  14-23 record despite having a 2.93 career ERA.

One of the all-time W-L anomalies was Steve Carlton with the 1972 Phillies.  Carlton went 27-10 for a team that won 59 games.

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes W-L records do catch your eye.

This poor Senzatela dude on the Rockies is 1-10.

[illinoisredsox]

17 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sometimes W-L records do catch your eye.

This poor Senzatela dude on the Rockies is 1-10.

Who was that guy for the Mets years ago who lost something like 25 straight decisions (might have even been a couple more than that). You have to be at least halfway decent for any team to keep sending a pitcher out there with that track record.

Edit - it was a guy named Anthony Young in 1992 and 1993. His ERA over those two years was about 4, which won’t get you all-star status but shouldn’t get you 27 straight losses either.

In Senzatela’s case, his ERA is north of 7, so there is some correlation.
 

[Kimmi]

On 5/31/2025 at 1:48 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like this topic remains so hot that it should have its own separate thread.

Does a pitcher's W-L record still mean something?

Did it ever?

I don't think it means very much any more, and there have always been problems with it.  But I also concede that sometimes W-L records can be interesting, at least.

I hate to say that any stat is meaningless, but IMO, a pitcher's W-L record is up there on the list of stats that don't tell you very much.  There are so many better stats that can be used to evaluate a pitcher's performance these days.

That said, looking at the number of Wins a pitcher has does have some value.  If you show me a 20-win pitcher, though few and far between, I'd feel pretty comfortable in saying that he's a pretty good starter, without looking at any other stats.

For instance, the two 18-win pitchers last year were Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora is giving him enough leash to get into trouble and then gives the escape route to someone else. Seems fine to me for a guy with one of the worst bb rates in MLB. 

I'm fine with when Cora yanks the starters. I was just pointing out how many times it was at 4.2 IP. (It's rarely after 4.2 with the last guy making an out, I bet.)

[Kimmi]

On 5/31/2025 at 2:03 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

I still have some old school left in me.  The first thing I look at is still the ERA.  

I typically look at ERA first as well.  

[Kimmi]

On 6/1/2025 at 12:36 AM, Duran Is The Man said:

wins aren't as important as they once were but they could be if how a win was awarded was changed. how a win is awarded now has to be one of the dumbest constructs in all of sports. Big Nate leaves the game after 8 innings with the Sox ahead 4-0, then Ryan Braiser comes in top o' the 9th walks the base loaded before allowing a grand slam. bottom of the 9th, Devers hits a lead off home run and .....Braiser gets the win. What. The. f***. dumbest gotdam thing in baseball. how the hell can anyone take something that stupid serious? 

How Saves and Blown Saves are awarded is just as ridiculous.  Even with the typical Save in which a reliever comes into the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less, there is a big difference between a 3-run save and a 1-run save.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

How Saves and Blown Saves are awarded is just as ridiculous.  Even with the typical Save in which a reliever comes into the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less, there is a big difference between a 3-run save and a 1-run save.

One aspect that requires no statistical data, because anyone watching can confirm with their own eyeballs:

Blown Game.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

How Saves and Blown Saves are awarded is just as ridiculous.  Even with the typical Save in which a reliever comes into the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less, there is a big difference between a 3-run save and a 1-run save.

i agree. it's a mess.

[notin]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

How Saves and Blown Saves are awarded is just as ridiculous.  Even with the typical Save in which a reliever comes into the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less, there is a big difference between a 3-run save and a 1-run save.

The 3 inning save is the most ridiculous.

 

Earlier this year, Cooper Criswell came in for the 7th inning of a game the Sox were leading 16-2.  Criswell pitched 3 innings and allowed FIVE RUNS to score, finished the game, and was awarded a save.  For getting 9 outs without giving up 14 runs…

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

How Saves and Blown Saves are awarded is just as ridiculous.  Even with the typical Save in which a reliever comes into the 9th inning with a lead of 3 runs or less, there is a big difference between a 3-run save and a 1-run save.

I enjoy that you can have multiple blown saves in a game. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

The 3 inning save is the most ridiculous.

 

Earlier this year, Cooper Criswell came in for the 7th inning of a game the Sox were leading 16-2.  Criswell pitched 3 innings and allowed FIVE RUNS to score, finished the game, and was awarded a save.  For getting 9 outs without giving up 14 runs…

At least that one is amusing.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

At least that one is amusing.

The record goes to Rangers RHP Wes Littleton, who was awarded a save in a game Texas won 30-3.  Littleton had to have ice water in his veins in order to go a full hour without giving up a week’s worth of runs..

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I enjoy that you can have multiple blown saves in a game. 

I find it amusing when pitchers are credited with blown saves before the sixth inning, which does happen .  Think about what has to happen there…

[Bellhorn04]

I believe a fellow named Schiraldi once had 2 blown saves in the same game.