A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[cp176]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Great compilation of stats, mvp78.  Thanks.

So point one is that the Sox ain't "el foldos" so much as having to endure a tough 2d half schedule. 

Point two is that the AL East again has the best W-L record in MLB and the Sox still have a bunch of those games to play.  Plus of course the three NL division leaders in the next 9 games.  

Point three, however, is that these Sox are deep in good lineup players.  You know that's true when practically the entire Talksox board wants a better hitting backup catcher.  Everyone pretty much likes the primary catcher and the other 8 lineup position players.  I took a quick peek at the total WAR's for the 2021 Sox lineup players and they are just a tad higher than the ones for the 2025 Sox who have played just 95 games.  

Point four are the  three pretty good starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito, who are worlds better than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta in 2021, who also finished the season without a closer.   Plus Buehler and Fitts aren't awful. 

My conclusion from the above is that these Sox have a real shot despite the tough schedule, so stay tuned.  

 

I don’t mind being the outlier.  I think a backup catcher is nonsense.  Wong is fine and will continue to be fine.  Analytics and metrics be damned.  There looks like there might be just one player that could possibly be traded but I know that I won’t really like it - Duran plus lesser prospects for pitching.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox are legitimate World Series contenders. We have to trust Breslow to do the smart thing when it comes to deadline deals. I think he is up to the task. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, cp176 said:

I don’t mind being the outlier.  I think a backup catcher is nonsense.  Wong is fine and will continue to be fine.  Analytics and metrics be damned.  There looks like there might be just one player that could possibly be traded but I know that I won’t really like it - Duran plus lesser prospects for pitching.

Wong is not fine. he is literally one of the worst catchers in MLB. he has 1 rbi. he's 0-28 with RISP and his OPS+ is 11. LOLOL.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The Sox FO needs to acquire a #2 starter, a 1st baseman and a backend reliever. A back-up catcher is the least of their problems.

[Larry Cook]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

As well as we are playing, and despite the warnings of don't mess with a good thing, I still think the logjam at OF and DH needs to be addressed in July.

As much as I want Mayer to play FT, I'm okay with a Romy-Mayer platoon at 2B, but I don't want Toro at 1B v L, so Mayer should be our FT 2B to finish this season. (He can play 3B, when Bregman rests.)

I'd prefer to have Duran or Anthony DH over Yoshida, but that seems a waste of value. Ref can DH v L, so that frees up some room for Anthony in the OF. The Yohida at DH question is still near front and center. If he plays vs all RHPs, then one of our 4 OF'ers must sit. (Abreu or Duran vs LHPs does not bother me, but who sits when we face a right hander? That's about 70% of the games.

I can't see trading any of them, but clearly one has more value to another team, and we have needs elsewhere. That is the foundation of a trade waiting to happen.

Duran and Abreu are mentioned the most, and the way Rafaela is playing, trading him would seem like a kick in the you know what. Anthony might be on the top of the avoid trading list.

Brez has a very tough choice to make- maybe choices.

One of the Red Sox beat writers predicts bres-slow hanging on to all outfielders until the offseason!!!!

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, cp176 said:

I don’t mind being the outlier.  I think a backup catcher is nonsense.  Wong is fine and will continue to be fine.  Analytics and metrics be damned.  There looks like there might be just one player that could possibly be traded but I know that I won’t really like it - Duran plus lesser prospects for pitching.

I'm with you.  Wong is a good defensive catcher and knows this pitching staff well.  With him behind the plate, in his last 2 starts Bello has been sharp.  Plus hitting is not exactly a weak suit for the Sox right now.  

[moonslav59]

As well as we are playing, and despite the warnings of don't mess with a good thing, I still think the logjam at OF and DH needs to be addressed in July.

As much as I want Mayer to play FT, I'm okay with a Romy-Mayer platoon at 2B, but I don't want Toro at 1B v L, so Mayer should be our FT 2B to finish this season. (He can play 3B, when Bregman rests.)

I'd prefer to have Duran or Anthony DH over Yoshida, but that seems a waste of value. Ref can DH v L, so that frees up some room for Anthony in the OF. The Yohida at DH question is still near front and center. If he plays vs all RHPs, then one of our 4 OF'ers must sit. (Abreu or Duran vs LHPs does not bother me, but who sits when we face a right hander? That's about 70% of the games.

I can't see trading any of them, but clearly one has more value to another team, and we have needs elsewhere. That is the foundation of a trade waiting to happen.

Duran and Abreu are mentioned the most, and the way Rafaela is playing, trading him would seem like a kick in the you know what. Anthony might be on the top of the avoid trading list.

Brez has a very tough choice to make- maybe choices.

[moonslav59]

Rule 5 this DEC, but many will not be in danger of being selected, so no real need to trade those ones:

Karim Ayubi
Miguel Bleis
Caleb Bolden
Jonathan Brand
Allan Castro
Juan Chacon
Isaac Coffey
Nathanael Cruz
Noah Dean
Kelvin Diaz
Matt Donlan
Shane Drohan
Max Ferguson
Nathan Hickey
Alex Hoppe
Blaze Jordan
Ahbram Liendo
Enderso Lira
CJ Liu
Tyler McDonough
Alvaro Mejias
Tyler Miller
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Hayden Mullins

Wyatt Olds
Jedixson Paez
Eybersson Polanco
Dalton Rogers
Ronald Rosario
Corey Rosier
David Sandlin
Michael Sansone
Phillip Sikes
Adam Smith
Noah Song
Tyler Uberstine
Diego Viloria
Jacob Webb
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

In my opinion, I'd not trade any of these prospects for rentals: Anthony, Mayer, Tolle, Arias, Garcia, Perales and probably not Clarke, Valera, Early, Sandlin, Romero, Gonzales, Soto & Delzine (Taylor?) 

That leaves (SP's rankings) but not for just anybody:

13 Bleis

16 Cespedes

17 Paez

19 Jordan

21 Uberstine, 22 Fajardo, 23 Mullins, 24 Casto, 26 Wehunt

Monegro, Drohan. Alcantara, YRod, Anderson, Rogers, Dean, Hoppe, Song

 

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

The Red Sox are legitimate World Series contenders. We have to trust Breslow to do the smart thing when it comes to deadline deals. I think he is up to the task. 

We'll see what they look like after squaring off with the NL division winners over the next few series. 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, cp176 said:

I don’t mind being the outlier.  I think a backup catcher is nonsense.  Wong is fine and will continue to be fine.  Analytics and metrics be damned.  There looks like there might be just one player that could possibly be traded but I know that I won’t really like it - Duran plus lesser prospects for pitching.

If there's a way to improve your team cheaply, why not? 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We'll see what they look like after squaring off with the NL division winners over the next few series. 

Yup. It's a brutal stretch.

We did hear this about the TBR series, prior to game one, too.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If there's a way to improve your team cheaply, why not? 

I think we do just that. No big prospects traded, unless it's for a Joe Ryan type non rental.

I think we should trade an OF'er, but I'm not sure that's even a 50-50 bet. It's probably not likely.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. It's a brutal stretch.

We did hear this about the TBR series, prior to game one, too.

People say stuff like this all year, basically. 🙂

[notin]

15 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The Sox FO needs to acquire a #2 starter, a 1st baseman and a backend reliever. A back-up catcher is the least of their problems.

This says gets me - what exactly is a #2 starter?  Is Merrill Kelly one? Or Mitch Keller? Or do the Sox need Mackenzie Gore or Freddy Peralta?  Or are they #1 starters?

Backup catcher is a small problem, agreed.  But it’s also the easiest one to fill.  If they can get a reasonable one for Nick Sogard or Connor Wong, why not?

Bullpen help is every team every year. But yes, the Sox need some.  Not necessarily Emmanuel Clase.  But bring in an arm or two.  
 

1b is a big need.  Toro/Gonzalez are absolutely not going to keep up this torrid pace.  Fortunately for Boston, it’s also a position rarely in demand at the deadline.  Rhys Hoskins made sense, especially after Milwaukee acquired 4’2” Andrew Vaughn.   But he went and got himself hurt.  Other available names include Josh Naylor (real name Joshua-Douglas James Naylor), Josh Bell (real name:  Joshua-Douglas Evan Bell), and Ryan O’Hearn.   My bellybutton is not puckering and unpuckering with delight.   I suppose Naylor aka JDJN and his cartoon villain resemblance is the top dog…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. It's a brutal stretch.

We did hear this about the TBR series, prior to game one, too.

I think there's a difference between TB and the NL division leaders. The NL is far superior to the AL. The TB offense looked rather putrid to me. Let's see how the arms hold up against some good teams and if the bats can stay hot. I'm not saying it won't happen. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

People say stuff like this all year, basically. 🙂

And are typically right to do so. The last time the Sox had a 10 game win streak was? 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Backup catcher is a small problem, agreed.  But it’s also the easiest one to fill.  

It's certainly not their only need or their highest priority. It's just a simple fix that will make me happy and I won't have to see Wong for a while. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

And are typically right to do so. The last time the Sox had a 10 game win streak was? 

It's definitely a big stretch of games coming up.  But they all are when you're battling for a playoff spot.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's certainly not their only need or their highest priority. It's just a simple fix that will make me happy and I won't have to see Wong for a while. 

I haven't been paying much attention to who Wong has been catching most of the time, but that's kind of an important consideration.

[Maxbialystock]

18 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Wong is not fine. he is literally one of the worst catchers in MLB. he has 1 rbi. he's 0-28 with RISP and his OPS+ is 11. LOLOL.

He's the backup catcher, starting 1 game in 3.  He's good defensively and he knows the Sox pitching staff.  He caught Bello in his last two starts, together possibly the two best back to back starts in Bello's career.  He has had 0 passed balls.  He nabs 24% of baserunners attempting to steal to Narvaez 28%.  His lifetime OPS is .685.  

 

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I haven't been paying much attention to who Wong has been catching most of the time, but that's kind of an important consideration.

It doesn't matter to me and Breslow hasn't mentioned acquiring a backup catcher, so I don't believe he's going to make a move in that area. 

[Maxbialystock]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there's a difference between TB and the NL division leaders. The NL is far superior to the AL. The TB offense looked rather putrid to me. Let's see how the arms hold up against some good teams and if the bats can stay hot. I'm not saying it won't happen. 

Love the 10 straight wins, but agree the next 9 games are a better test of the Sox hitting and pitching.

To me what's different about this Sox team from, say, a month ago, is the greater depth of the hitting and the emergence of starters Giolito and Bello.  

The NL may well be better than the AL, but the toughest division in MLB, based on W-L records, is still the AL East.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

People say stuff like this all year, basically. 🙂

Yes, either "This is what should be expected when you play weak teams" and the ugly sister, "Wait til we play good teams."

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there's a difference between TB and the NL division leaders. The NL is far superior to the AL. The TB offense looked rather putrid to me. Let's see how the arms hold up against some good teams and if the bats can stay hot. I'm not saying it won't happen. 

We won't be winning 20 straight.

[Nick]

We love where we are right now but I think we need to look back and see if we did everything right coming out of Spring Break.

Looking back, Mayer should have been the 2B coming out of Spring Break.  Sure Campbell was the Rookie of the Month in April. 

But there's no comparison as it turns out on their defensive abilities in the infield. Plus , Mayer also had a good offensive spring break. 

Because of platooning and/or faltering in Campbell, we had to let Hamilton play way too may games at second base and he struggled defending that position.

We actually wasted Mayer's talent for almost two months, arriving on 5/26.

We can all gloss it over but no one her can convince me that Mayer should not have broken camp out of spring training.

"seeing good baseball" if you are being honest has coincided with Mayer playing the infield.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Love the 10 straight wins, but agree the next 9 games are a better test of the Sox hitting and pitching.

To me what's different about this Sox team from, say, a month ago, is the greater depth of the hitting and the emergence of starters Giolito and Bello.  

The NL may well be better than the AL, but the toughest division in MLB, based on W-L records, is still the AL East.  

It's a team that is clicking in all facets. We haven't seen this since '21. Pitching and hitting both going well at the same time? Not typical for this org in recent years. We've seen a lot of BAD baseball. It's nice and fun to have GOOD baseball. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We won't be winning 20 straight.

I think I heard the team record is 15. 

[Bellhorn04]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, either "This is what should be expected when you play weak teams" and the ugly sister, "Wait til we play good teams."

Plus, you might basically tread water in the "important stretch" and have no change at all in the outlook.

There are just certain things people love to say, over and over. 😄 

[Larry Cook]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Rule 5 this DEC, but many will not be in danger of being selected, so no real need to trade those ones:

Karim Ayubi
Miguel Bleis
Caleb Bolden
Jonathan Brand
Allan Castro
Juan Chacon
Isaac Coffey
Nathanael Cruz
Noah Dean
Kelvin Diaz
Matt Donlan
Shane Drohan
Max Ferguson
Nathan Hickey
Alex Hoppe
Blaze Jordan
Ahbram Liendo
Enderso Lira
CJ Liu
Tyler McDonough
Alvaro Mejias
Tyler Miller
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Hayden Mullins

Wyatt Olds
Jedixson Paez
Eybersson Polanco
Dalton Rogers
Ronald Rosario
Corey Rosier
David Sandlin
Michael Sansone
Phillip Sikes
Adam Smith
Noah Song
Tyler Uberstine
Diego Viloria
Jacob Webb
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

In my opinion, I'd not trade any of these prospects for rentals: Anthony, Mayer, Tolle, Arias, Garcia, Perales and probably not Clarke, Valera, Early, Sandlin, Romero, Gonzales, Soto & Delzine (Taylor?) 

That leaves (SP's rankings) but not for just anybody:

13 Bleis

16 Cespedes

17 Paez

19 Jordan

21 Uberstine, 22 Fajardo, 23 Mullins, 24 Casto, 26 Wehunt

Monegro, Drohan. Alcantara, YRod, Anderson, Rogers, Dean, Hoppe, Song

 

 

I heard the beat writers in Texas were speculating on whether or not eovaldi would be made available?????

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a team that is clicking in all facets. We haven't seen this since '21. Pitching and hitting both going well at the same time? Not typical for this org in recent years. We've seen a lot of BAD baseball. It's nice and fun to have GOOD baseball. 

Yep. 

The Sox could stumble over the next 9 games (@ Cubs, @ Phillies, Dodgers), but so could any team.  So it would be great if they could go, say, 5-4.