A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[harmony]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

One huge factor going the Sox's way - the timing of the Yankees squaring off against the Mariners. Exactly what you want when you're beating up on a bad team. 

After the three-game series at Yankee Stadium, Seattle travels to Detroit to take on the league's best team. It's a brutal road trip for the Mariners before the All Star Break.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would kindly disagree, and I believe I have addressed it.  But to reiterate past points I have made I would prioritize starting pitching, relief pitching, and a 2nd catcher to split with Narvaez at the deadline.

The Toro/Romy platoon at 1b has netted us a .965 OPS at 1B.  If they're platooned right than Suarez is a downgrade.  If regression comes into play then it's a marginal upgrade AT BEST. 

I'm sorry, I think people just get stuck on the long ball.  Suarez swings hard, but the reality is I don't think he makes us that much better.  Or at the veyr least, he does not make this team as better as getting pitching would.  The team should buy pitching. 

The offense will be fine. Maybe get a catcher who is serviceable behind the plate who can hit, why not upgrade there? Wong is literally the worse offensive player in baseball this year so you'd think if you wanted to upgrade the offense you'd look there. 

Suarez might also be a bit too popular as a target this month.  The Yankees and Cubs, for example, are likely to be interested.

Josh Naylor strikes me as the best rental target.. Rhys Hoskins felt like the most likely., but he is currently out with a sprained thumb.  Josh Bell is probably not worth acquiring. If the Rays make Yandy Diaz available, he has potential, but their plans are always difficult to determine beforehand.

Not sure who else is available…

[drewski6]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=

Ill take it though.  It was well south of 33.6 10 games ago.

[Soxlover]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

1B. Toro has done a job there, but that wave can only be ridden so long. We've got Bregman and Yoshida coming back which means Gonzalez can go back to roving cover and we demote Hamilton and Eaton.  We don't want Toro playing every day. If we can get good power there, you go for it. 

We can platoon Romy with Yoshida at DH or Mayer at 2B when Bregman returns. I prefer at DH.. I think we trade for a rental 1Bman.

[Soxlover]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Suarez might also be a bit too popular as a target this month.  The Yankees and Cubs, for example, are likely to be interested.

Josh Naylor strikes me as the best rental target.. Rhys Hoskins felt like the most likely., but he is currently out with a sprained thumb.  Josh Bell is probably not worth acquiring. If the Rays make Yandy Diaz available, he has potential, but their plans are always difficult to determine beforehand.

Not sure who else is available…

Nathaniel Lowe?

longer term: Steer or Schanuel ?

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, Soxlover said:

He does have a 4% higher line drive % than his career, but his soft hit rate is higher, too.

Its hard to give up on a guy as hot as he’s been.

Romy has done this bs lefties for a couple years, so maybe he’s no fluke. 

Didnt you literally just propose trading for Spencer Steer

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

Nathaniel Lowe?

longer term: Steer or Schanuel ?

I think the Angels might be a bit hesitant to trade Schanuel, who is on the extremely short list of position players to make their MLB debut the same calendar year in which they were drafted.  They clearly liked that college product a lot…

 

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

I think the Angels might be a bit hesitant to trade Schanuel, who is on the extremely short list of position players to make their MLB debut the same calendar year in which they were drafted.  They clearly liked that college product a lot…

 

That list is growing though.  College baseball is better than its ever been. Because you make more in college these days then in the minor legues. Dudes are going to and staying in college longer.  Still impressive but pre-NIL history doesnt matter in this case anymore cuz so much has changed with NIL.

[drewski6]

I use to not know where anybody went to college. Now-a-days dudes are graduating from universities already well-knowns

[notin]

41 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That list is growing though.  College baseball is better than it’s ever been. Because you make more in college these days than in the minor legues. Dudes are going to and staying in college longer.  Still impressive but pre-NIL history doesnt matter in this case anymore cuz so much has changed with NIL.

The list is growing.  From 2004-2022, the list was :

1. Ryan Zimmerman 

But the list from 2004-2024 has now grown to:

1. Ryan Zimmerman

2. Nolan Schanuel

 

Its seriously rare air…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Soxlover said:

Nathaniel Lowe?

longer term: Steer or Schanuel ?

Lowe (98) and Steer (92) both have OPS+ below league average.  Naylor (128) is much better in this regard.

If you value StatCast, none of these three are particularly impressive.  Rhys Hoskins would be better than all of them.  4’4” Andrew Vaughn even more so, but he is not likely to be available anymore…

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Didnt you literally just propose trading for Spencer Steer

No. Somebody asked for more names

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Ill take it though.  It was well south of 33.6 10 games ago.

Last year shows how hard it is these days to predict the Sox.  

I like this Sox team, which should get even better when Bregman, Dobbins, and Yoshida rejoin.  But between now and the July 31 deadline the Sox play the Rays, @ the Cubs, @ the Phillies, the Dodgers, and @ the Twins.  

And let's not forget the AL East is still the toughest Division in MLB.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Lowe (98) and Steer (92) both have OPS+ below league average.  Naylor (128) is much better in this regard.

If you value StatCast, none of these three are particularly impressive.  Rhys Hoskins would be better than all of them.  4’4” Andrew Vaughn even more so, but he is not likely to be available anymore…

I think Fenway would be horrible for Naylor's pull profile. I'm all in on Hoskins, but he's injured. Maybe for '26? 

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would kindly disagree, and I believe I have addressed it.  But to reiterate past points I have made I would prioritize starting pitching, relief pitching, and a 2nd catcher to split with Narvaez at the deadline.

The Toro/Romy platoon at 1b has netted us a .965 OPS at 1B.  If they're platooned right than Suarez is a downgrade.  If regression comes into play then it's a marginal upgrade AT BEST. 

I'm sorry, I think people just get stuck on the long ball.  Suarez swings hard, but the reality is I don't think he makes us that much better.  Or at the veyr least, he does not make this team as better as getting pitching would.  The team should buy pitching. 

The offense will be fine. Maybe get a catcher who is serviceable behind the plate who can hit, why not upgrade there? Wong is literally the worse offensive player in baseball this year so you'd think if you wanted to upgrade the offense you'd look there. 

I'm sorry, respectfully you haven't. Let me try and make the point in another way.

Bregman and Yoshida come up. Eaton and Hamilton go down. There's no other options. You're adding 1 infielder while subtracting 2.

Your outfield - Refsnyder, Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Yoshida. 

DH - rotation between Yoshida and Refsnyder

Your infield - Bregman, Story, Mayer, Romy and Toro.

You're playing a lety. Cora sits Mayer like he does every time, how does Romy platoon with Toro? You yourself recognised that Toro has to be platooned.

Even with a trade of an outfield piece for pitching, you cannot platoon both DH and 1B with this roster.

Toro is a nothing player having a decent spell. For me, if you're going for it you free up that platoon and have Romy as your bench guy against lefties.

Suarez is valued at 6m on BTV. You're really not using much in the way of bullets to get him.

 

 

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm sorry, respectfully you haven't. Let me try and make the point in another way.

Bregman and Yoshida come up. Eaton and Hamilton go down. There's no other options. You're adding 1 infielder while subtracting 2.

Your outfield - Refsnyder, Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Yoshida. 

DH - rotation between Yoshida and Refsnyder

Your infield - Bregman, Story, Mayer, Romy and Toro.

You're playing a lety. Cora sits Mayer like he does every time, how does Romy platoon with Toro? You yourself recognised that Toro has to be platooned.

Even with a trade of an outfield piece for pitching, you cannot platoon both DH and 1B with this roster.

Toro is a nothing player having a decent spell. For me, if you're going for it you free up that platoon and have Romy as your bench guy against lefties.

Suarez is valued at 6m on BTV. You're really not using much in the way of bullets to get him.

 

 

You guys should keep arguing because in my eyes , you two both make good points often on here, and I often confuse you two because both one syllable names beginning with an H (apologies).  And you guys debating directly w each other, Im hopeful, will help me distinguish going forward.  You are both good posters , so I try to individualize but for some reason, i struggle to not mix you two up.

You both prob dont want to hear that in the middle of a debate with each other (dont confuse me with THAT guy"). Apologies for that too.

[drewski6]

35 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm sorry, respectfully you haven't. Let me try and make the point in another way.

Bregman and Yoshida come up. Eaton and Hamilton go down. There's no other options. You're adding 1 infielder while subtracting 2.

Your outfield - Refsnyder, Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Yoshida. 

DH - rotation between Yoshida and Refsnyder

Your infield - Bregman, Story, Mayer, Romy and Toro.

You're playing a lety. Cora sits Mayer like he does every time, how does Romy platoon with Toro? You yourself recognised that Toro has to be platooned.

Even with a trade of an outfield piece for pitching, you cannot platoon both DH and 1B with this roster.

Toro is a nothing player having a decent spell. For me, if you're going for it you free up that platoon and have Romy as your bench guy against lefties.

Suarez is valued at 6m on BTV. You're really not using much in the way of bullets to get him.

 

 

Why not? Toro/Romy platoon at 1B.  Refsnyder/Duran platoon at DH

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You guys should keep arguing because in my eyes , you two both make good points often on here, and I often confuse you two because both one syllable names beginning with an H (apologies).  And you guys debating directly w each other, Im hopeful, will help me distinguish going forward.  You are both good posters , so I try to individualize but for some reason, i struggle to not mix you two up.

You both prob dont want to hear that in the middle of a debate with each other (dont confuse me with THAT guy"). Apologies for that too.

Appreciate it. I can get as petty as the next person, unless the next person is the self proclaimed superior baseball mind. But Hugh is good people. 👍

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Eugenio Suarez is the rare batter to lead both the American League and the National League in the same offensive category in different seasons: STRIKEOUTS. 

Suarez has actually won K Krowns three times in his career -- and in all three seasons had more whiffs than any Red Sox batter in the history of baseball.

The last thing THIS Boston batting order needs is another all-or-nothingnothingnothingnothingnothingnothing swinger.

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why not? Toro/Romy platoon at 1B.  Refsnyder/Duran platoon at DH

Because we've sent down Hamilton and Eaton in this scenario. Our infield bench option is Romy. How does he platoon for both Toro and Mayer?

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Eugenio Suarez is the rare batter to lead both the American League and the National League in the same offensive category in different seasons: STRIKEOUTS. 

Suarez has actually won K Krowns three times in his career -- and in all three seasons had more whiffs than any Red Sox batter in the history of baseball.

The last thing THIS Boston batting order needs is another all-or-nothingnothingnothingnothingnothingnothing swinger.

It doesn't have to be him, though I'd rather him than what I've laid out. But we need to do something (if we're buyers).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It doesn't have to be him, though I'd rather him than what I've laid out. But we need to do something (if we're buyers).

Santana may be washed, but he's an old pro who won a Gold Glove at first base just last year, and will cost nothing.

A veteran voice that commands respect.  We've got to change our evil ways.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Because we've sent down Hamilton and Eaton in this scenario. Our infield bench option is Romy. How does he platoon for both Toro and Mayer?

He doesnt need to.  Romy can platoon with Mayer or Toro in the IF. The other platoon is either at DH or in the OF, as it involves Refsnyder
 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Appreciate it. I can get as petty as the next person, unless the next person is the self proclaimed superior baseball mind. But Hugh is good people. 👍

Hey, my mind is a finely tuned machine, buddy. 📠💾🧮

[Hitch]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

He doesnt need to.  Romy can platoon with Mayer or Toro in the IF. The other platoon is either at DH or in the OF, as it involves Refsnyder
 

Right but we dont want Toro playing full time against lefties or we lose what we're gaining. But Cora won't play Mayer against lefties either. How does he cover them both?

[Hitch]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hey, my mind is a finely tuned machine, buddy. 📠💾🧮

You're one of the good ones, too. 👍

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Soxlover said:

No. Somebody asked for more names

You gave Steer out as a name, and then said Romy is too hot to trade.

Steer makes Romy look like an ice cub. Dude is on absolute fire.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Right but we dont want Toro playing full time against lefties or we lose what we're gaining. But Cora won't play Mayer against lefties either. How does he cover them both?

When I jumped in, you mentioned we cant platoon both 1b and DH.  I see that the implication was "while also platooning 2b"

Correct, hard to platoon 3x.  Unless its september *(Id also do it playoffs, but Id carry 5 position players, calling Hammy back up). Not sure if teams still do this but you dont need as many pitchers in playoffs.

Yes, for July and August platooning 3 positions would be tough.  You could and I would, but its tough.

The three platoons would be :

Mayer/Romy
Duran/Refsnyder
Toro/Yoshida (working on 1b as we speak)

Id do it, but Im crazy a superior baseball mind.

Or id play Mayer everyday. Or DFA Yoshida and call Ham back up.


 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I'm sorry, respectfully you haven't. Let me try and make the point in another way.

Bregman and Yoshida come up. Eaton and Hamilton go down. There's no other options. You're adding 1 infielder while subtracting 2.

Your outfield - Refsnyder, Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Yoshida. 

DH - rotation between Yoshida and Refsnyder

Your infield - Bregman, Story, Mayer, Romy and Toro.

You're playing a lety. Cora sits Mayer like he does every time, how does Romy platoon with Toro? You yourself recognised that Toro has to be platooned.

Even with a trade of an outfield piece for pitching, you cannot platoon both DH and 1B with this roster.

Toro is a nothing player having a decent spell. For me, if you're going for it you free up that platoon and have Romy as your bench guy against lefties.

Suarez is valued at 6m on BTV. You're really not using much in the way of bullets to get him.

 

 

Who says anything about platooning DH? no one is on this roster because they have to DH, except maybe Yoshida who has yet to take one at bat.  DH, since Raffy left, has been the exact opposite of 1B, and Romy can play other positions as well, it's not like you're talking about having 4 guys on the roster for 4 spots. 

I'm also not 100% convinced that they're not trading from their outfield depth.  THere's a decent chance they're trading one of Abreu or Duran and plugging Yoshida in left and rotating the DH the way they're doing it with Duran/Abreu/Rafaela/Anthony now. 

Look, we can argue all day long, I just don't agree that an upgrade at 1B is either necessary or that there's even a big upgrade available out there. 

[Hitch]

52 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Who says anything about platooning DH? no one is on this roster because they have to DH, except maybe Yoshida who has yet to take one at bat.  DH, since Raffy left, has been the exact opposite of 1B, and Romy can play other positions as well, it's not like you're talking about having 4 guys on the roster for 4 spots. 

I'm also not 100% convinced that they're not trading from their outfield depth.  THere's a decent chance they're trading one of Abreu or Duran and plugging Yoshida in left and rotating the DH the way they're doing it with Duran/Abreu/Rafaela/Anthony now. 

Look, we can argue all day long, I just don't agree that an upgrade at 1B is either necessary or that there's even a big upgrade available out there. 

Maybe that's where the disconnect is. I don't see Yoshida getting any time in left. Why would he? So he and Refsnyder will have to share DH (even if we do trade one of Duran or Abreu for pitching - which I feel is a certainty). We will soon have only 5 infielders, 2 of which are going to be platooning and Romy needs to platoon at two places against lefties..This is utterly obvious in its unsuitability to a team going for it, at least to me.

But I've tried long enough to change your mind and it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. I'm off to post to Fred that Rafaela may be the most talented hitter we've had since Williams.