A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Has to be Duran to RF in that scenario. 

With his popgun arm? 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe our current ranking has a lot to do with Bloom. I was just asking you the question because you stated it was a top 3-5 ranked system under Bloom and Breslow. I figured you knew the rankings? 😑

SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESH....

Our current (2024-2025)rankings have been top 3-7 in just about every ranking service. I know you know this. Geeesh!

It took a while to get to top 10 in most rankings, but when you are at #30, then COVID strikes, it's a pretty formidable rise.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Has to be Duran to RF in that scenario. 

I think Anthony would be better than Duran in RF.

How about LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Rafaela?

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Our current (2024-2025)rankings have been top 3-7 in just about every ranking service. I know you know this. Geeesh!

It took a while to get to top 10 in most rankings, but when you are at #30, then COVID strikes, it's a pretty formidable rise.

Again, I'm asking about under Bloom, which is what you are saying when you say:

Kinda-sorta, but not a top 3-5 farm like the Sox reached under Bloom-Breslow.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Rafaela?

Yeah, that's the best defensive lineup at Fenway if you're throwing them all out there. Maybe at other stadiums you can swap Rafaela and Duran? 

[Bellhorn04]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are we going to move on from the dumb "well he's just the 9th hitter" argument though? That shields him from criticism from when he stinks. When he's going well, it's easy to say that his offense is enough to be worthy of CF. 

The defensive parts of WAR don't prorate the way offensive WAR does. For example, the highest DRS last year was 22. Rafaela won't go much higher than that and probably not even reach 20 TBH. He won't end up with 30 DRS. It's just not really accurate to say "he's projecting to be at X WAR at year end." It's not entirely how it works IMO. 

The reason we talk about benching Rafaela is because we want Anthony on the roster. The ways to do that are: Rafaela Super UTIL, Rafaela/Duran platoon or trade somebody. The Super UTIL idea potentially works because of how awful the MIF has been this year. If you are strong in the OF and weak in the IF, but have an OFer than can play IF, moving him to the IF isn't the dumbest idea. The platoon works because both guys can play CF and have splits. People want Anthony up BECAUSE THIS TEAM HAS UNDERACHIEVED with the roster it currently has. If they keep running the same guys out there, it's not going to get much better.

I'm not a fan of the 'just the #9 hitter' argument, pretty sure I've never used it. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Again, I'm asking about under Bloom, which is what you are saying when you say:

Kinda-sorta, but not a top 3-5 farm like the Sox reached under Bloom-Breslow.

As you pointed out, I said "Bloom-Breslow," not Bloom and Breslow, separately.

I did answer, anyway. They reached about #10 before Brez took over, so yes, not 3-5 before Brez took over Bloom's farm.

You can pick apart the wording, but I'm sticking to the veracity of my statement. Bloom was largely responsible for the farm becoming top 3-5. 

I'm not sure what else to say. I think I explained myself well enough.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, that's the best defensive lineup at Fenway if you're throwing them all out there. Maybe at other stadiums you can swap Rafaela and Duran? 

Or, in big LF stadiums: Anthony LF, Rafaela CF and Duran RF, but I'm not sure this sort of shuffling works out too well. Duran might struggle with the way the balls come off the bat in RF.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As you pointed out, I said "Bloom-Breslow," not Bloom and Breslow, separately.

I did answer, anyway. They reached about #10 before Brez took over, so yes, not 3-5 before Brez took over Bloom's farm.

You can pick apart the wording, but I'm sticking to the veracity of my statement. Bloom was largely responsible for the farm becoming top 3-5. 

I'm not sure what else to say. I think I explained myself well enough.

Ok, I have your answer "about 10." 

I wasn't initially looking to beat you up over this. I was just looking for your answer about Bloom's ranking. I wasn't taking a side about who is deserving of praise for the ranking.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok, I have your answer "about 10." 

I wasn't initially looking to beat you up over this. I was just looking for your answer about Bloom's ranking. I wasn't taking a side about who is deserving of praise for the ranking.

Fine. I still think Bloom, even without Brez, was responsible for getting us to top 5 (after he was gone.) Brez got us to top 3-5.

Is that better wording?

[moonslav59]

The Sox rank T13th in FWAR Pitching

4th RP (lots of innings help)

17th SP

We are...

7th in everyday player fWAR (which includes O & D)

This should make us a top 15 team.

By position:

1st 3B (Tied w CLE and will end up lower due to Bregman injury)

3rd Devers (no more talk of a line-up demotion or his "las 80 games.")

4th RF (Who says platoons suck?)

6th Catcher (Wowza!)

9th LF (not bad)

10th Rafaela, errr... I mean CF

24th 1B (Thought it would be worse)

26th SS (That's the Story.)

28th 2B (We just can't seem to ever fix 2B)

3rd best OF in MLB with the top prospect an OF'er.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox rank T13th in FWAR Pitching

4th RP (lots of innings help)

17th SP

We are...

7th in everyday player fWAR (which includes O & D)

This should make us a top 15 team.

Top 15?  That's an interesting cutoff point.  

[dgalehouse]

Add up every Sox player's bWAR and fWAR , divide by two and it should come out to 30-34. 

[Larry Cook]

Chris kline has suggested trading Devers to the Phillies for Andrew painter. Painter is coming off ucl surgery so that should make him enticing to bres-slow.

Phillies have a hole at 3rd base. Devers behind turner and Harper is a scary lineup!! 

plus this trade opens up a spot for Anthony, without sacrificing any outfield defense!!!! 
 

painter should develop into a stud #2 starter, fairly quickly. Plus it helps giolita to the bullpen!!! 
 

if I am bres-slow, I am calling desperate dave tomorrow. Maybe throw in masa for free?????

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

With his popgun arm? 

It's not perfect, but they're not moving Rafaela and I don't think Anthony is going anywhere near RF.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Top 15?  That's an interesting cutoff point.  

 Being conservative as we are ranked 7TH AND 13TH.

Maybe top 10 or 11?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Add up every Sox player's bWAR and fWAR , divide by two and it should come out to 30-34. 

No.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 Being conservative as we are ranked 7TH AND 13TH.

Maybe top 10 or 11?

All else being equal, which of course it never is, Top 12 is the hypothetical cutoff point for making the playoffs - or Top 6 in the AL might be more relevant.

[notin]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, that's the best defensive lineup at Fenway if you're throwing them all out there. Maybe at other stadiums you can swap Rafaela and Duran? 

Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, Anthony in RF

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, Anthony in RF

Anthony LF

duran CF 

rafeala RF 

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Add up every Sox player's bWAR and fWAR , divide by two and it should come out to 30-34. 

This would imply that a replacement level team would win 0 games. Which is not what WAR is, it’s above replacement level.  Baseline would be like 48-50 wins.  
 

so Sox should have a cumulative WAR of appx 19 right now with their record NOT 30-34

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This would imply that a replacement level team would win 0 games. Which is not what WAR is, it’s above replacement level.  Baseline would be like 48-50 wins.  
 

so Sox should have a cumulative WAR of appx 19 right now with their record NOT 30-34

If you want to see how a replacement level team would play, just look at the '24 ChiSox and the '25 Rockies. They won't go 0-162. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you want to see how a replacement level team would play, just look at the '24 ChiSox and the '25 Rockies. They won't go 0-162. 

Exactly, It's Wins Above REPLACEMENT! not Zero. 

Although......maybe we should create that stat.  WA-0

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Exactly, It's Wins Above REPLACEMENT! not Zero. 

Although......maybe we should create that stat.  WA-0

Getting back to the real world everyone in the AL East has gone 8-2, or 7-3 the last 10 games except the Red Sox who has stumbled, and fumbled to a 3-7. Baltimore has gained 5 games on Boston, and is only 2 games back of Boston in the L column. Despite all this it wouldn’t surprise me if the Red Sox take at least 2 from the Yankees this weekend, .

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 6/5/2025 at 9:24 AM, moonslav59 said:

 

Rafael Devers Urged to Fix One Red Sox Issue to Help Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Red Sox Predicted to Cut Ties With Alex Cora After Latest Comments

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Rafael Devers Urged to Fix One Red Sox Issue to Help Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell

Now there is worry about playing someone like Mayer out of position?🤭🙈

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Predicted to Cut Ties With Alex Cora After Latest Comments

Daddy is not going to fire Cora, and Brez doesn’t have the power to do so IMO.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Daddy is not going to fire Cora, and Brez doesn’t have the power to do so IMO.

If it's from an msn article, it ain't gonna happen. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If it's from an msn article, it ain't gonna happen. 

MSN is less reliable than this board,

 

Ok, maybe equally reliable