A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's higher than Andrew Vaughn's! 

Not if you pro-rate it for height.

Josh Bell is like 6’3”.  Andrew Vaughn is 4’10”

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Not if you pro-rate it for height.

Josh Bell is like 6’3”.  Andrew Vaughn is 4’10”

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Bell definitely fills that need the Sox have for a .557 OPS in the lineup…

Does he play 1B?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Does he play 1B?

Does Josh Bell play 1B? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Does Josh Bell play 1B? 

I don't know, does he?

I don't follow the nats

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I don't know, does he?

I don't follow the nats

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

With Campbell, at least there's hope he can turn it around. Story? I don't see it. 

It seems unlikely, but something like .740 and plus D is okay.

[mvp 78]

That's a huge hole in the lineup after Breggie. Woof. 

[moonslav59]

OPS over last 4 weeks (team .760)

1.180 Devers

1.002 Narvaez

.961 Bregman

.904 Refsnyder (22 PAs)

.802 DHam

.783 Abreu

.774 Duran

 

.684 Rom (25)

.666 Rafaela

.626 Sogard (33)

 

.538 Toro (26)

.519 Wong (24)

.496 Campbell

 

.368 Story

[moonslav59]

OPS Against last 4 weeks: (team .721)

.154 Guerrero (13 PAs Against)

.452 Chapman

.480 Wilson

.562 Hendriks

.564 Slaten (.000 last 14 days)

 .565 Weissert

.574 Bernardino

.656 Crochet

.720 Buehler (.364 last 14 days)

 

.777 Newcomb

.798 Bello & Dobbins

.841 Whitlock

.941 Houck

.944 Burdi (9)

.

 

[dgalehouse]

Liam Hendriks says that he and his wife are now getting death threats. It's sick out there folks. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Liam Hendriks says that he and his wife are now getting death threats. It's sick out there folks. 

To tell someone to commit suicide, and wished they had died from cancer is the low of the low just, because of a stupid game.🤮

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That's a huge hole in the lineup after Breggie. Woof. 

There is an Anthony sized hole at cleanup hitter!!!! 

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Liam Hendriks says that he and his wife are now getting death threats. It's sick out there folks. 

 

 

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

To tell someone to commit suicide, and wished they had died from cancer is the low of the low just, because of a stupid game.🤮

I’d wish this upon no one, not even Manny Machado.

[moonslav59]

Sox traded cash for Ryan Noda and placed Yoshida on the 60 Day IL.

He can play 1B and OF.

He has 17 career HRs in about 600 PAs.

.713 career OPS but off to a really bad start in 2025.

He's 29 and had an .855 AAA OPS with 53 HRs in about 1200 PAs.

In 475 AA PAs, he hit 29 HRs (.904 OPS.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

There is an Anthony sized hole at cleanup hitter!!!! 

The guy with a .449 On Base Percentage? The one who's walked as many times as he's struck out?

He should bat in front of Devers and Bregman, to give the big men more chances to drive him in, since he gets on base at a higher rate than any current major leaguer except one guy atop the AL in OBP, and another atop the NL.

Anthony in Boston could literally keep the line moving, but counterclockwise around the bases -- instead of trudging head-down from the batter's box to the dugout in the walk of K shame,

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The guy with a .449 On Base Percentage? The one who's walked as many times as he's struck out?

He should bat in front of Devers and Bregman, to give the big men more chances to drive him in, since he gets on base at a higher rate than any current major leaguer except one guy atop the AL in OBP, and another atop the NL.

Anthony in Boston could literally keep the line moving, but counterclockwise around the bases -- instead of trudging head-down from the batter's box to the dugout in the walk of K shame,

Agreed.

Our 4 hole has really sucked.

1. L Duran

2. R Bregman (best hitter)

3. L Anthony

4. L Devers (best hitter w power)

5. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder

6. R Narvaez

7. L Mayer (or stick w Story a while more)

8. R Campbell

9. R Rafaela

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

Our 4 hole has really sucked.

1. L Duran

2. R Bregman (best hitter)

3. L Anthony

4. L Devers (best hitter w power)

5. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder

6. R Narvaez

7. L Mayer (or stick w Story a while more)

8. R Campbell

9. R Rafaela

The 4th hole has really sucked, but Devers is 2nd in the league in RBI, and Bregman is 4th, so I wouldn’t move either one in the BO, and if Anthony got called up I definitely wouldn’t stick him  in the 3rd spot to start with. I know you like to tinker, but Geez.🤭

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The 4th hole has really sucked, but Devers is 2nd in the league in RBI, and Bregman is 4th, so I wouldn’t move either one in the BO, and if Anthony got called up I definitely wouldn’t stick him  in the 3rd spot to start with. I know you like to tinker, but Geez.🤭

Bregman in the 3 slot goes against the modern line-up philosophy. In theory, he'd have more impact up 2nd or 4th.

Under this philosophy, the better power hitter (Devers) bats 4th (the 2nd most important slot.) The 3 slot is behind #2, #4, #1 and #5, so Anthony up 3rd is about right for maybe our 5th best batter.

Just because someone has done great, so far, in a certain slot, does not mean they couldn't or can't do better in another.

BTW, Devers hit way better 4th than 2nd, last year, so why "tinker?" 

Also, from 2024-2025, Devers has hit more often 4th than 2nd.

 

[Old Red]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman in the 3 slot goes against the modern line-up philosophy. In theory, he'd have more impact up 2nd or 4th.

Under this philosophy, the better power hitter (Devers) bats 4th (the 2nd most important slot.) The 3 slot is behind #2, #4, #1 and #5, so Anthony up 3rd is about right for maybe our 5th best batter.

Just because someone has done great, so far, in a certain slot, does not mean they couldn't or can't do better in another.

BTW, Devers hit way better 4th than 2nd, last year, so why "tinker?" 

Also, from 2024-2025, Devers has hit more often 4th than 2nd.

 

Modern line-up philosophy🤮. Most important slot, 2nd most important slot🤮. Why do you think Cora is batting Raffy, and Bregman 2-3? Like I said before that Raffy is 2nd in the league, and Bregman is 4th in RBI. Right now in 2025. I could care less where Raffy hit better last year, or where he hit the most either. Once again Cora doesn’t agree with your tinkering. 🤭

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Old Red said:

Modern line-up philosophy🤮. Most important slot, 2nd most important slot🤮. Why do you think Cora is batting Raffy, and Bregman 2-3? Like I said before that Raffy is 2nd in the league, and Bregman is 4th in RBI. Right now in 2025. I could care less where Raffy hit better last year, or where he hit the most either. Once again Cora doesn’t agree with your tinkering. 🤭

I'm fine with that and can still like Cora, a lot. Our offense is not scoring the  runs it should with their OPS and wRC+. I look for reasons why and suggest some possible solutions to the issue. This is just one of many possible solutions I suggest, and some I'm not even sure I'd do or even try.

IMO, Bregman and Devers are clearly our best 2 hitters and Devers as more power. I start by line-up slotting Devers 4 and Bregman 2. Duran is my lead off guy for obvious reasons, and he does seem to be heating up to maybe being our 3rd or 4th best batter. Abreu and Ref are slotted 5th, as a platoon- another big RBI slot. That leaves 3rd for the 5th best batter. We have no clear good hitter after the 5 I listed (6 w a platoon.)

I'm surprised you didn't cry "Why tinker?" when Raffy got off to such a bad start to 2025, after he did so well batting 4th, last year. See, sometimes "tinkering" works. Thanks for proving my point.

😜

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox traded cash for Ryan Noda and placed Yoshida on the 60 Day IL.

He can play 1B and OF.

He has 17 career HRs in about 600 PAs.

.713 career OPS but off to a really bad start in 2025.

He's 29 and had an .855 AAA OPS with 53 HRs in about 1200 PAs.

In 475 AA PAs, he hit 29 HRs (.904 OPS.)

Off to a bad start IN AAA!!!!

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Old Red said:

Modern line-up philosophy🤮. Most important slot, 2nd most important slot🤮. Why do you think Cora is batting Raffy, and Bregman 2-3? Like I said before that Raffy is 2nd in the league, and Bregman is 4th in RBI. Right now in 2025. I could care less where Raffy hit better last year, or where he hit the most either. Once again Cora doesn’t agree with your tinkering. 🤭

If you think about it, don't you want your hitters higher in the order so that they have a chance to hit more often (1st and 2nd)? The only other difference is the discussion about 3rd where there used to be a lot of value, but there is a belief that "this batter comes up more often with nobody on base and two outs so that position is a little less valuable." You could also say that it gets more PA's in a year than the cleanup hitter! IDK. I'm not too hard up about devaluing the three hole. 

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you think about it, don't you want your hitters higher in the order so that they have a chance to hit more often (1st and 2nd)? The only other difference is the discussion about 3rd where there used to be a lot of value, but there is a belief that "this batter comes up more often with nobody on base and two outs so that position is a little less valuable." You could also say that it gets more PA's in a year than the cleanup hitter! IDK. I'm not too hard up about devaluing the three hole. 

I believe at this point in the season not only is Bregman 4th in the league in RBI as of yesterday, but he’s also near the top of chances with runners on base, but also near the top of leaving runners on base, and lots of times Raffy batting ahead of Bregman has been one of those runners. The Biggest problem in the lineup has been the black hole in the 4th slot.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I believe at this point in the season not only is Bregman 4th in the league in RBI as of yesterday, but he’s also near the top of chances with runners on base, but also near the top of leaving runners on base, and lots of times Raffy batting ahead of Bregman has been one of those runners. The Biggest problem in the lineup has been the black hole in the 4th slot.

If a hitter is near the top of chances with runners on base, they'd likely be near the top in RBI AND leaving runners on. As all old school ballplayers say "it's a game of failure where you succeed only 30% of the time." 

We've already mentioned the Sox have the worst cleanup numbers in the league.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If a hitter is near the top of chances with runners on base, they'd likely be near the top in RBI AND leaving runners on. As all old school ballplayers say "it's a game of failure where you succeed only 30% of the time." 

We've already mentioned the Sox have the worst cleanup numbers in the league.

Bottom line IMO Raffy, and Bregman aren’t the problem in the lineup, or where they are batting.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you think about it, don't you want your hitters higher in the order so that they have a chance to hit more often (1st and 2nd)? The only other difference is the discussion about 3rd where there used to be a lot of value, but there is a belief that "this batter comes up more often with nobody on base and two outs so that position is a little less valuable." You could also say that it gets more PA's in a year than the cleanup hitter! IDK. I'm not too hard up about devaluing the three hole. 

We do think about it, and I used to think the 3 slot was the most important. If your two higher OBP guys are up 1-2, more often than not, a guy will get on base in the first inning. After that, it's all about even, except for the more PA thing, 

I trust the studies done on line-up, and they all say, the slot differentials are minimal or extremely minimal, so it's not something that is a big impact choice, but the studies do show the 4 slot gets more RBI opportunities than the 3 slot. (I think even 5 gets more than 3, but it might be tied.)

Of course the 1 & 2 slots are vital. I see 1 as being maybe more important than 4, but only for OBP. The numbers show 2 & 4 are the top 2 slots. I'll defer to science, until science shows something changed.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bottom line IMO Raffy, and Bregman aren’t the problem in the lineup, or where they are batting.

Why do you see moving them as thinking they are the "problem?"

Moving them to fix a problem with the all important (or #2 all important) 4 slot is a possible solution.

All-in-all, it will not likely matter.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We do think about it, and I used to think the 3 slot was the most important. If your two higher OBP guys are up 1-2, more often than not, a guy will get on base in the first inning. After that, it's all about even, except for the more PA thing, 

I trust the studies done on line-up, and they all say, the slot differentials are minimal or extremely minimal, so it's not something that is a big impact choice, but the studies do show the 4 slot gets more RBI opportunities than the 3 slot. (I think even 5 gets more than 3, but it might be tied.)

Of course the 1 & 2 slots are vital. I see 1 as being maybe more important than 4, but only for OBP. The numbers show 2 & 4 are the top 2 slots. I'll defer to science, until science shows something changed.

Trusting science, and the studies? How robotic that is. Once again Cora doesn’t agree with you. Is this another one of those I don’t agree with Cora, but I don’t think he’s wrong things?

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course the 1 & 2 slots are vital. I see 1 as being maybe more important than 4, but only for OBP. The numbers show 2 & 4 are the top 2 slots. 

The second sentence isn't quite right.  For the #1 slot OBP is bigger, as you say, and for the #4 slot SLG is bigger.  But that doesn't really make the #4 slot 'one of the top 2' - more like 1 and 4 are T2, I think.