A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Of course I agree that the hitter benefits from facing a pitcher for the 3d time.  However, those two OPS's don't seem very far apart to me.  I think almost all managers are aware of the third time through the lineup challenge, but also consider other trends by that pitcher in that game as well as in past games that season.  It's actually a good thing when a starter successfuly pitches 5, 6, 7, or even 8 or 9 innings.   

The genius of the movie Moneyball is that it's based on a season and team that really happened.  Thus are we compelled to agree with the John Henry character who recounts how little the A's paid for each win in 2002 in comparison to the Yankees.  Near the end of the movie he raises sabermetrics to the level of holy writ and condemns all the scouts and managers in the known universe for relying on judgment.

I love stats.  We all do.  But there is still room for baseball judgment.  

I like the part where the A's win the WS in 2002. 

The last time the A's won an ALCS game, Willie Wilson was on the roster. 

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Of course I agree that the hitter benefits from facing a pitcher for the 3d time.  However, those two OPS's don't seem very far apart to me.

That's sort of a problem with OPS - differences tend to look smaller.  .757 is about 9% higher than .696.  Over the course of 162 games that's significant.  Managers are supposed to play the percentages.  

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we make any major trades, and if we do, it will be near the deadline or next winter.

Next winter be too late! 🙂

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Next winter be too late! 🙂

Deadline may be too late.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No. C'mon man. 

I said, "NO," too

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I said, "NO," too

"Hey guys, here's a really horrible trade I just thought of that I don't want to do. What do y'all think?"

That was the gist then? 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

"Hey guys, here's a really horrible trade I just thought of that I don't want to do. What do y'all think?"

That was the gist then? 

I then asked who had a better trade idea.

The ideas were about more than just finding a 1Bman. One trade brought us one of MLBs best catchers for 3 years. I was thinking maybe some would say, "Add ____,  and I'd say yes."

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at some 2025 numbers...

.596 D Jansen (11 PAs)

.605 O'Neill (6 XBHs)

.625 Meidroth (80 PAs)

.657 E Valdez (102 PAs)

.699 Bogey (.691 2024-2025)

.781 Betts (1.6 bWAR)

_______________________

6.55 K Jansen (1.46 WHIP)

4.50 Bosser (16 IP)

3.97 Sale in 9 GS (1.406 WHIP)

3.05 Pivetta in 8 GS (1.06 WHIP)

2.12 Schreiber in 17 IP (1.12 WHIP)

1.93 C Martin (0.964 in 19 IP)

[Kimmi]

On 5/14/2025 at 4:37 PM, Maxbialystock said:

I think the point is that the stats guys say bunting is bad and facing a batter for the third time (or more) is dumb. 

I like the bunt because it's different and can be effective.  I also like starters hanging around as long as they are effective.  The problem with relief pitchers is you can't always be sure they will be better than they guy they replace.  

As much as I would like to see the re-emergence of the 7-inning starting pitcher, I can't argue with what the stats overwhelmingly say.  Even though the relief pitcher might not get the job done, going to the relief pitcher is usually the right move.  I have to admit, though, that there are many times when a starter is cruising and I would have liked for the manager to keep him in the game.  {Such internal conflict} LOL

The sac bunt has its purpose.  I really don't like when a manager calls for a sac bunt with a runner on 1B and no outs.  I also don't like when a batter cannot advance a runner from 2B with no outs, whether it's by sac bunt or another means.

[Kimmi]

On 5/15/2025 at 10:00 AM, moonslav59 said:

Well, if he replaced our 1Bman, by being the DH (or LF and Duran/Ref at DH)and having Devers play 1B, I think it likely would be an upgrade.

Devers really, really needs to start taking reps at 1B.  When Yoshida is ready to return, Devers needs to be ready to move to first.  It simply makes the most sense.

[Kimmi]

On 5/15/2025 at 11:41 AM, notin said:

And it’s not like Mayer is guaranteed to do any better.  And certainly won’t fix any pitching issues.

I could see benching Story and replacing him with Mayer for multiple reasons, not only his recent slump but it’s also the only way the Sox could entice him into opting out (which is also not guaranteed).

Campbell? Let him play through it…

Mayer and Anthony might create a spark initially.  Then again, they might not.  It would be awfully risky to have 3 rookies, who would inevitably go through some growing pains as Campbell seems to be doing right now, on the roster, along with Narvaez (Rookie?) and Abreu.  

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Devers really, really needs to start taking reps at 1B.  When Yoshida is ready to return, Devers needs to be ready to move to first.  It simply makes the most sense.

To me, Mayer or Anthony playing over Yoshida makes way more sense.

When do these guys get a chance?

Unless Bregman opts out, we'll be in the same boat next year and in 2027, too.

The two kids are ML ready. They may not do well, or they make start off slowly, but rip the bandaid off. Rolling the dice with these two kids is no more risky than dice-rolling with Yoshida & Sogard/Romy.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

Mayer and Anthony might create a spark initially.  Then again, they might not.  It would be awfully risky to have 3 rookies, who would inevitably go through some growing pains as Campbell seems to be doing right now, on the roster, along with Narvaez (Rookie?) and Abreu.  

I don't see how waiting and staggering the kids matters, when we have a guy like Sogard playing FT. Yoshida is a huge dice roll.

I'm glad they didn't stagger Lynn, Rice & Cooper.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Devers really, really needs to start taking reps at 1B.  When Yoshida is ready to return, Devers needs to be ready to move to first.  It simply makes the most sense.

When Yoshida is ready to return? Masa could have been the DH since opening day just like he was DH in ST.

[Kimmi]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Mayer or Anthony playing over Yoshida makes way more sense.

When do these guys get a chance?

Unless Bregman opts out, we'll be in the same boat next year and in 2027, too.

The two kids are ML ready. They may not do well, or they make start off slowly, but rip the bandaid off. Rolling the dice with these two kids is no more risky than dice-rolling with Yoshida & Sogard/Romy.

What are you going to do with Yoshida when he is ready to come off the IL?  

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see how waiting and staggering the kids matters, when we have a guy like Sogard playing FT. Yoshida is a huge dice roll.

I'm glad they didn't stagger Lynn, Rice & Cooper.

Your comparing these guys to Rice, Lynn, and Cooper?🙈🤭

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When Yoshida is ready to return? Masa could have been the DH since opening day just like he was DH in ST.

He should be the DH.  Devers should have stayed at 3B and Bregman should have been at 2B.  IMO

I understand that this is not our best defensive alignment, but I thought it would have been best for the team at the time.

[Kimmi]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see how waiting and staggering the kids matters, when we have a guy like Sogard playing FT. Yoshida is a huge dice roll.

I'm glad they didn't stagger Lynn, Rice & Cooper.

I prefer to keep as many options as possible available for as long as possible.  Despite our recent heartbreaking series against the Tigers, I don't see the situation as dire yet.  In another week, it might be.  Or it might not be.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

He should be the DH.  Devers should have stayed at 3B and Bregman should have been at 2B.  IMO

I understand that this is not our best defensive alignment, but I thought it would have been best for the team at the time.

I think Cora agreed too, but Brez didn’t.

[Maxbialystock]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I like the part where the A's win the WS in 2002. 

The last time the A's won an ALCS game, Willie Wilson was on the roster. 

They won three straight WS for owner Charlie Finley.  Reportedly, he was a terrific judge of baseball talent and used it.  

[MADSTORK]

Tonight’s beer league bullpen 

4 arms used Age 30, 36, 33, 32

2ER 5 walks

Abraham and Crockett have pictures 

Priceless!

 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Kimmi said:

What are you going to do with Yoshida when he is ready to come off the IL?  

If he's not better than Mayer or Anthony, it doesn't matter. Hell, he may end up being a DH platoon with Refsnyder, but only if we can get Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt.

He should not play the OF, despite the hold up being his throwing arm. He's not better than Duran, Rafaela, Abreu/Refsnyder, and IMO, I'd bet on Anthony being better. (Even Campbell in CF is a better option.)

I guess we trade him for pennies on the dollar or just DFA him, if nobody wants him at $1M-5M a year.

You'd play him over who I just mentioned?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

Your comparing these guys to Rice, Lynn, and Cooper?🙈🤭

Who, me?

No.

Saying 3 prospects can be called up at the same time, as an example, is not saying these three are or will be as good.

[moonslav59]

You know things are going badly for the Sox, when MADSTORK shows up, and Red's posts quadruple in number.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Saying 3 prospects can be called up at the same time, as an example, is not saying these three are or will be as good.

What it will say: the current group of veteran players is not good enough collectively.

The Big Three isn't going to win the World Series in their first year. But playing three prospects this highly-rated by the industry is a step in the right direction.

Many rebuilding teams understand that relying on younger players will have its ups and downs, but are willing to pay the price to develop a core of contenders. 

The current version of the Red Sox is going nowhere anyway -- not with this bullpen. Andrew Bailey had a good reputation as a pitching coach before Breslow hired him, but most of his top relievers for half a decade were under 30 or not stamped with expired best-by dates.

The Sox traded for and extended its ace starting pitcher. Do they really want to waste this year, and maybe even another year of Crochet, by waiting to promote Anthony and Mayer, and enduring their inevitable struggles and adjustments to the majors?

 

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What it will say: the current group of veteran players is not good enough collectively.

The Big Three isn't going to win the World Series in their first year. But playing three prospects this highly-rated by the industry is a step in the right direction.

Many rebuilding teams understand that relying on younger players will have its ups and downs, but are willing to pay the price to develop a core of contenders. 

The current version of the Red Sox is going nowhere anyway -- not with this bullpen. Andrew Bailey had a good reputation as a pitching coach before Breslow hired him, but most of his top relievers for half a decade were under 30 or not stamped with expired best-by dates.

The Sox traded for and extended its ace starting pitcher. Do they really want to waste this year, and maybe even another year of Crochet, by waiting to promote Anthony and Mayer, and enduring their inevitable struggles and adjustments to the majors?

 

There is a general miasma surrounding the team. The fans feel it and the results show it. Critical errors in the field and on the bases, relief pitchers who refuse to throw strikes, batters who whiff over and over and especially with men on base.  If there is a thing called momentum, the Sox have it in a negative direction. There is significant talent on this team but all, except for a few, (Bregman, Crochet and Chapman per example) are playing below their capabilities. What causes it? A couple of thoughts are the Devers situation causing negative vibes and Cora himself with his placid take on what is happening. Some players may be sensitive to the negativism, Duran for instance. 

What I have recommended is a shakeup to put a spark and some energy back  into the play. Bench or trade some players, bring up Anthony and Mayer. The upside is they provide energy and pull the team out of a funk and the downside is the team is no better but our  future stars gain experience. I'm at a point where I think we need a change of style at manager. I would recommend replacing Cora to get a more aggressive manager in place but doubt the  Sox will do it.  

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

There is a general miasma surrounding the team. The fans feel it and the results show it. Critical errors in the field and on the bases, relief pitchers who refuse to throw strikes, batters who whiff over and over and especially with men on base.  If there is a thing called momentum, the Sox have it in a negative direction. There is significant talent on this team but all, except for a few, (Bregman, Crochet and Chapman per example) are playing below their capabilities. What causes it? A couple of thoughts are the Devers situation causing negative vibes and Cora himself with his placid take on what is happening. Some players may be sensitive to the negativism, Duran for instance. 

What I have recommended is a shakeup to put a spark and some energy back  into the play. Bench or trade some players, bring up Anthony and Mayer. The upside is they provide energy and pull the team out of a funk and the downside is the team is no better but our  future stars gain experience. I'm at a point where I think we need a change of style at manager. I would recommend replacing Cora to get a more aggressive manager in place but doubt the  Sox will do it.  

Cora’s  recent comments that the Red Sox competed well in Detroit seems good enough for him. What a low bar to judge things on. 

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You know things are going badly for the Sox, when MADSTORK shows up, and Red's posts quadruple in number.

But the BIG telltale sign is that Moon isn’t giving any Wildcard standings update, so let’s help him out. With a 22-24 record the Red Sox have 7 teams ahead of them in the all important loss column ranging from 1 game to 5 games. Your welcome!😀😀😃

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Sox traded for and extended its ace starting pitcher. Do they really want to waste this year, and maybe even another year of Crochet, by waiting to promote Anthony and Mayer, and enduring their inevitable struggles and adjustments to the majors?

I do feel we have a window, for at least as long as Crochet is here, so the way some people seem to feel, the time will never be right to call up Mayer or Anthony, unless we are 15 GB or we have a major injury at middle IF or the OF. "We can't afford to ride through the adjustments and struggles they will likely face."

We have been riding through the struggles of Rafaela, Wong, Casas and vets for years. These three seem better suited for success, to me.

We just had a major injury and slot opening. It's not one that Anthony or Mayer play, but we can shuffle and make room. I'm all for doing it, knowing fully well, whoever we call up may not work out. This isn't just throwing things at a wall. Anthony and Mayer are projected by many experts to be very good and maybe great players, someday. To me, the wait should be over. We have a way to call up Mayer, now. The Anthony promotion is more complex and problematic, so his call-up could wait a little longer.

I really like Rafaela, and he's not the reason we are losing: I get that, but Anthony has an enormous ceiling, especially on offense over Rafaela and maybe even Duran. He also has shown he can hit lefties better than Abreu did on the farm.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

But the BIG telltale sign is that Moon isn’t giving any Wildcard standings update, so let’s help him out. With a 22-24 record the Red Sox have 7 teams ahead of them in the all important loss column ranging from 1 game to 5 games. Your welcome!😀😀😃

That is a sign, too. Correct. You seemingly enjoy being here more when we lose. That's true, too, right?