A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. Why would that matter?

We don't know if the two struggling time frames are based on the same cause(s.)

They may- they may not. You seem to think they are- fine. It still doesn't mean this is going to be who he is going forward.

I never stated that they were.

I merely stated the possibility that it may be.

[Bellhorn04]

39 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I never stated that they were.

I merely stated the possibility that it may be.

Did anyone ever tell you you really know how to keep a conversation going?  

[moonslav59]

I can't say I'm not concerned about the past 80 or so games played by Devers, but of all the Sox batters, he is not even close to the top of my concern list.

The guy was hurt, last year and tried to play through it. I admire the effort, but his stats suffered, as did the team around him.

I have my doubts that the slow start to 2025 is part of the same issue(s.) Maybe the injury is lingering, even if just in his head. Maybe the move to DH affected his attitude or approach, but that is not connected to his end of 2025 reasons for struggling. Maybe it's just a little extended slow start, which we've seen in many of his recent 5-6 years. Maybe some combination of reasons is the answer, or maybe it's none of these things and there is no discernable reason to be found.  He's still leading the team in hard hit balls and is walking way more than ever. Maybe it's just bad luck and pitchers pitching around him.

Sox leaders in hard hit%

48% Devers

38 Abreu

35 Story

34 Bregman

It's not really close.

His highest hard hit% in his career is 41% in '23. It's 48%, now, and some seem to be insisting there is a problem and wanting to demote him in the line-up, which implies they think his, so called struggle are and will be continuing.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 4/27/2025 at 7:30 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Some would say we have a present and insoluble DH logjam with Devers and Yoshida.  

Sox need to just find a way to cut ties with Yoshida.  There is just no room for him in Boston. Surely some other team could find a use for him.

[vegasbob]

22 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Sox need to just find a way to cut ties with Yoshida.  There is just no room for him in Boston. Surely some other team could find a use for him.

i would say the the Red Sox have done an admirable job of hiding Masataka so far this year..  He couldn't throw before his shoulder problem, so the fact that he still can't  isn't remarkable.  

They are still paying him in any case and in a couple months will be halfway through the gross overpay contract. 

Yoshida can hit and  will possibly be needed/wanted by an AL or NL team who needs some offense at DH for a playoff run.    Sox will eat a bunch of money but they are doing that already.  

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Sox need to just find a way to cut ties with Yoshida.  There is just no room for him in Boston. Surely some other team could find a use for him.

There is no real urgent need to dump Yoshida, until we reach a 40 man roster crunch, since he has options remaining and can be parked in AAA playing DH & LF.

We may also be able to put Crawford on the retro 60 day IL, if we really need a roster slot. We also have a couple pretty easy DFA guys before needing to find a taker for Yoshida, if there is one.

Trust me, I'm all for the idea of finding a taker for Yoshida and am willing to pay a big chunk of his deal to do so, with little or nothing expected in return. I can't see us ever really needing Yoshida, even if Devers gets hurt. I don't see a big drop off from Yoshida to a Grissom-Refsnyder platoon or by promoting Anthony and or Mayer and having some sort of timeshare at DH. To me, Casas should be a DH, too, but who plays 1B? (I've suggested Devers, but I don't see us moving some current IF'er or OF'er to 1B.)

[moonslav59]

Our current wRC+ leaders:

167 Refsnyder- still want Abreu playing vs LHPs?

165 Bregman- the notorious "slow starter"

154 Campbell- living up to the hype

148 Abreu- has yet to start vs a lefty

116 Romy- looks like a full blown 1B platoon

111 Devers- creeping up the rankings

108 Duran- didn't take long to get plus side

107 Story- trending downwards, but streaky

80 Rafela- we got nobody between 81-106

77 Narvaez- his defense has been worth the blackhole on O

60 Casas- needs to show he belongs

-12 Sabol, -19 Wong and -27 DHam

___________________

Does Campbell's .412 OBP warrant a look at the 2 slot?

___________________

How about the two platoon guys?

.967 Refsnyder and .902 Abreu

____________________

Whodathunk our two lowest ERA- guys would be:

184 Houck

104 Buehler

______________

Whodathunk our deep depth would be doing better:

60 Dobbins, 77 Fitts and Newcomb at 103.

 

[jdc69]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is no real urgent need to dump Yoshida, until we reach a 40 man roster crunch, since he has options remaining and can be parked in AAA playing DH & LF.

We may also be able to put Crawford on the retro 60 day IL, if we really need a roster slot. We also have a couple pretty easy DFA guys before needing to find a taker for Yoshida, if there is one.

Trust me, I'm all for the idea of finding a taker for Yoshida and am willing to pay a big chunk of his deal to do so, with little or nothing expected in return. I can't see us ever really needing Yoshida, even if Devers gets hurt. I don't see a big drop off from Yoshida to a Grissom-Refsnyder platoon or by promoting Anthony and or Mayer and having some sort of timeshare at DH. To me, Casas should be a DH, too, but who plays 1B? (I've suggested Devers, but I don't see us moving some current IF'er or OF'er to 1B.)

By the time Yoshida gets healthy, which seems like there's no great hurry, if Casas doesn't pick it up, let them trade places and have Devers play first. 

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't say I'm not concerned about the past 80 or so games played by Devers, but of all the Sox batters, he is not even close to the top of my concern list.

The guy was hurt, last year and tried to play through it. I admire the effort, but his stats suffered, as did the team around him.

I have my doubts that the slow start to 2025 is part of the same issue(s.) Maybe the injury is lingering, even if just in his head. Maybe the move to DH affected his attitude or approach, but that is not connected to his end of 2025 reasons for struggling. Maybe it's just a little extended slow start, which we've seen in many of his recent 5-6 years. Maybe some combination of reasons is the answer, or maybe it's none of these things and there is no discernable reason to be found.  He's still leading the team in hard hit balls and is walking way more than ever. Maybe it's just bad luck and pitchers pitching around him.

Sox leaders in hard hit%

48% Devers

38 Abreu

35 Story

34 Bregman

It's not really close.

His highest hard hit% in his career is 41% in '23. It's 48%, now, and some seem to be insisting there is a problem and wanting to demote him in the line-up, which implies they think his, so called struggle are and will be continuing.

He's got a lot of walks, but it doesn't feel like they have been pitching around him too much weirdly. There's been a steady diet of fastballs he couldn't catch up to. I only caught a game and half of the Guardians series, so not sure there, but while he may lead the Sox in hard hits, I would guess he also leads the Sox in whifs on fastballs. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

77 Narvaez- his defense has been worth the blackhole on O

People said Breslow didn't do enough for catcher in the offseason, but Narvaez has a higher fWAR and bWAR than Higashioka so far. I think the Sox move on from Wong at the end of the year. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, jdc69 said:

By the time Yoshida gets healthy, which seems like there's no great hurry, if Casas doesn't pick it up, let them trade places and have Devers play first. 

The only way Devers plays first is if Casas is traded midseason and the phase Devers in. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

16 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Did anyone ever tell you you really know how to keep a conversation going?  

What a dumb statement.

It's not like I'm talking to myself.

Why don't you say that to the other posters in the conversation?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Vaughn Grissom forcing Red Sox to consider drastic Triston Casas option

[moonslav59]

A grissom-Romy 1B platoon is a possibility, so why not ask Devers to try 1B?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A grissom-Romy 1B platoon is a possibility, so why not ask Devers to try 1B?

If Casas isn't on the roster, you give it a shot. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Casas isn't on the roster, you give it a shot. 

I'm a long way from benching Casas, but the leash ends somewhere.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

 so why not ask Devers to try 1B?

Because he's never played there on any level.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Because he's never played there on any level.

Yes, true, but on any given off season, they could have asked him to workout at 1B.

This season, despite recovering from injury, they could have had him pick up a 1Bman's mitt in ST'ing, and at least get the process going.

I would avoid playing him at 1B, until he feels comfortable and ready. (if it ever happens.)

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a long way from benching Casas, but the leash ends somewhere.

Casas is too good of a hitter with too good plate discipline to keep hitting like this. Don't know if it's an approach thing or a mindset thing or just a bad month. He had a really tough year last year but those 2 homers this past week should hopefully get him going. He's a competitor we saw it in the documentary I'm pretty confident he'll figure this out. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Casas is too good of a hitter with too good plate discipline to keep hitting like this. Don't know if it's an approach thing or a mindset thing or just a bad month. He had a really tough year last year but those 2 homers this past week should hopefully get him going. He's a competitor we saw it in the documentary I'm pretty confident he'll figure this out. 

Yes. We haven't even finished a month in the season. He can easily get up to .790 or .800+ by season's end.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, true, but on any given off season, they could have asked him to workout at 1B.

This season, despite recovering from injury, they could have had him pick up a 1Bman's mitt in ST'ing, and at least get the process going.

I would avoid playing him at 1B, until he feels comfortable and ready. (if it ever happens.)

Exactly my point, he's never played the position, even in practice or ST.

Very doubtful they try to let him learn on the fly during the season.

[Cameron Tran]

3 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Exactly my point, he's never played the position, even in practice or ST.

Very doubtful they try to let him learn on the fly during the season.

we need Dom Smith back

[Cameron Tran]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. We haven't even finished a month in the season. He can easily get up to .790 or .800+ by season's end.

he hit .225 in the first half of 2023. Finished that season hitting .317 with 15 home runs in the second half

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Exactly my point, he's never played the position, even in practice or ST.

Very doubtful they try to let him learn on the fly during the season.

Agreed, although they could find time for him to work out at first base, especially if he really wants to play on the field over DH'ing. I wonder if they even talked to him about it.

If he's okay with the idea, why not have him take some practice at 1B. He used to spend time practicing 3B during the year. Maybe he never is ready by the end of the season, but he could be closer to it happening, and if the idea is to trade Casas, next winter, we might have an idea on Dever's skill level at 1B. (It would also open an avenue for Yoshida and Ref to DH in '26... or even Casas.)

[Larry Cook]

Isn’t the average American League ops around .691???  If so, Devers is actually better than average!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t the average American League ops around .691???  If so, Devers is actually better than average!!!!!!

He also passed the guy everyone has been raving about his start to the season: Story. For whatever that is worth. To me, that is evidence that shows how silly it is to judge people over a 3-4 week sample size, when 1-2 games can show drastic changes.

Had Devers had his 2-3 biggest games in the first week of the season, nobody would notice a .600 OPS and be complaining (as much.)

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, although they could find time for him to work out at first base, especially if he really wants to play on the field over DH'ing. I wonder if they even talked to him about it.

If he's okay with the idea, why not have him take some practice at 1B. He used to spend time practicing 3B during the year. Maybe he never is ready by the end of the season, but he could be closer to it happening, and if the idea is to trade Casas, next winter, we might have an idea on Dever's skill level at 1B. (It would also open an avenue for Yoshida and Ref to DH in '26... or even Casas.)

One would think that if they seriously considered it that he would have already spent some time with a first baseman's mitt.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t the average American League ops around .691???  If so, Devers is actually better than average!!!!!!

Well, the average salary for a MLB player is around $5M, so.........

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Casas is too good of a hitter with too good plate discipline to keep hitting like this. Don't know if it's an approach thing or a mindset thing or just a bad month. He had a really tough year last year but those 2 homers this past week should hopefully get him going. He's a competitor we saw it in the documentary I'm pretty confident he'll figure this out. 

He was hitting 580 on 5/5/23 too. A slow start isn't new for him.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, the average salary for a MLB player is around $5M, so.........

AI calculated it wrong for Google. It's about $4M. You either have to get rid of dead money, guys on the injured list, or include them in the total number of players.