A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Cora says that from now on whenever Rafaela sits, Campbell will be in center (Duran in left).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If it comes to it I think they will.  I'm feeling pretty Polly on Breslow these days.

I do, too, and the reasons are twofold:

1. The Sox need to make the postseason asap, no more waiting for next year -- especially because any window that opens nowadays can be quickly smashed by core players opting out or refusing to sign extensions, which leads to...

2. A player planning to bet on himself year-to-year like maybe Casas, Anthony or Mayer could also bring the most value back in a deal that can put the current club over the top.

CBOs can't just bring up all the best prospects who need to play everyday, sending big league regulars to the bench, and expect everyone to be happy... while at the same time ignoring other areas of the roster in need of reinforcement.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If it comes to it I think they will.  I'm feeling pretty Polly on Breslow these days.

Breslow has done a better job dealing Bloom’s prospects than Bloom did..

[moonslav59]

Dobbins promoted as the 27th man in today's day-night doubleheader.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's easy to name the guy in charge when reflecting on moves, but Red Sox Nation also knows that many Assistant Vice Presidents in the front office have outlasted several CBOs. That doesn't mean the Chief doesn't have the final say, but maybe there's less "he" than "they."

As you point out, when it comes to contracts for certain individuals, the Bloom regime did invest more on quality MLB relievers than starting pitchers. And one of the main reasons the Red Sox floundered the past three seasons in 2022-24 is a repetitive pattern of a weak rotation resulting in an overworked bullpen.

Last year, Breslow and Bailey experienced the same thing. But even though they were both good relievers in the recent past, "they" pivoted from overpaying for a Tanner Scott, and instead spent a ton of John Henry's resources to finally land an ace starter in Crochet.

However, even if Crochet wins the Cy Young, Boston could still miss the playoffs if the rest of the starters don't get healthy and the pen burns out again. As much as fans cringe at losing any more top prospects, if the Sox look like legit contenders this summer, will they actually do what it takes at the trade deadline to make the playoffs?

Great post. I started having serious doubts about JH being all in, ever again, but I think he sees a pretty wide open window, right now. We have a healthy mix of kids & vets. We have many key players under control for a long time, and those that are not seem like they can be replaced without a need to spend more money than the cost, now.

The Sp'er depth behind Crochet is about as deep as I have ever seen since I started following the Sox in the early 70's. We may not have the best 3 or 4 or even 5 in the past 50 years, but they look pretty good. I mentioned the lack of spending on SP'ing and notin pointed out the lack of trades for top ones overlapped the low spending. The Crochet trade and extension is the centerpiece of the turnaround, but it is not the whole story.

The Gio signing was the biggest contract handed out to a SP'er by the Sox, since the Sale extension and Nate re-signing in 2019. While he may not turn out to be a plus, it was a significant investment marker.

The Buehler $21M AAV was the biggest since Sale (until Crochet's topped it.)

The trades for Fitts, Priester and Sandlin were further signs of a renewed focus on obtaining young pitchers to make up for the lack of them in our farm system. The Criswell, Fulmer, Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell and other moves shows the desire to deepen the depth of the rotation and pen.

Some of the names on the list I am about to show are longshots, and some will not make it as plus pitchers for the big club. Some may argue having a deep quantity of mediocrity is not a winning strategy, but I will argue that mediocrity in depth is better than crappy depth, and we look pretty good, in terms of quality with out top 6-8 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers.

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

ML Ready: Fitts, Newcomb, Priester, Criswell, Fulmer, Winckowski, Dobbins, Drohan, Stock

Prospects: Perales, Valera, Sandlin, Early, Tolle, Paez, Clarke, D Reyes, Cason, Wehunt, Monegro, Aita,, Mullins, Delzine, Tygart, Ingrassia

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Hendriks, Wilson

Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, (SP'ers from above) Guerrero, I Campbell, Penrod

2nd tier: Mata, Moore, Harris, Adanes, Burdi, Adams, de Leon

Prospects: Fajardo, Y Cruz, Hoppe, Olds (SP'ers)

[moonslav59]

To the Devers doubters and small sample size worriers, it's time to smile like Devers was, today.

WOW! What a mood shifter.

Updated OPS:

1.492 Abreu (Amazingly, his OPS goes down 130 by going 3 for 7 w 4 rbi)

1.310 Romy (showing maybe '24 was no fluke)

1.199 Narvaez (getting closer to being the #1 catcher)

1.143 KC (steady rookie)

1.071 Refsnyder (still doing well- today vs a RH'd SP'er)

.974 Bregman (the notorious slow starter)

.825 Devers for evers

.733 Story (fine by me)

Waiting for a turn-around:

.591 Duran (maybe started game 2), .517 Casas, .473 Rafaela (3 hits in gm 2) Wong is at .279 w Narvaez breathing down his neck. DHam .182 is playing like he wants to be in AAA.

3 of our 6 SP'ers have ERAs over 5.19, but I doubt Houck or Buehler will lose their slots, anytime soon. Newcomb 5.19 or Fitts 4.50 will likely be the one demoted.

The pen is surprising me, but the depth was always there.

 

[Hugh2]

Looks like Casas is still the 1b next year. And ya’ll thought I was crazy for saying vladdy would get at least $500 million.

Devers at $300 doesn’t look so bad now.  One thing we forget is what the LT will be at the tail end of these contracts. 
 

imagine what paying Cambell only $7.5 million a year 7 years from now will look like.

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3 of our 6 SP'ers have ERAs over 5.19, but I doubt Houck or Buehler will lose their slots, anytime soon. Newcomb 5.19 or Fitts 4.50 will likely be the one demoted.

 

 

Doesn’t Newcomb have to clear waivers? 

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Looks like Casas is still the 1b next year. And ya’ll thought I was crazy for saying vladdy would get at least $500 million.

Devers at $300 doesn’t look so bad now.  One thing we forget is what the LT will be at the tail end of these contracts. 
 

imagine what paying Cambell only $7.5 million a year 7 years from now will look like.

You're not crazy, but Vlad getting $500 million is.

Good for the Jays ownership for the investment in the team, though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're not crazy, but Vlad getting $500 million is.

Good for the Jays ownership for the investment in the team, though.

Wilyer Abreu makes $749,500 this season.

I had the pleasure to watch two future Hall of Famers, Dwight Evans and Mookie Betts, play a lot of rightfield for the Red Sox. And I never saw a better throw from RF to 3B than Abreu's last night that nailed Nootbar.

The baserunner was only 20 feet from the bag when Wilyer let it fly... directly on a line into Bregman's glove meeting the sliding Lars...

Vlad, now making half a billion dollars, is a DH.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Doesn’t Newcomb have to clear waivers? 

I'd option Criswell, not Newcomb. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wilyer Abreu makes $749,500 this season.

I had the pleasure to watch two future Hall of Famers, Dwight Evans and Mookie Betts, play a lot of rightfield for the Red Sox. And I never saw a better throw from RF to 3B than Abreu's last night that nailed Nootbar.

The baserunner was only 20 feet from the bag when Wilyer let it fly... directly on a line into Bregman's glove meeting the sliding Lars...

Vlad, now making half a billion dollars, is a DH.

I'm questioning that number. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd option Criswell, not Newcomb. 

I would too, for now. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd option Criswell, not Newcomb. 

Good idea, and send Fitts to the pen to help Whit with the log relief role in mid to high leverage situations.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Doesn’t Newcomb have to clear waivers? 

Correct. He will stay, for a while, anyway.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Looks like Casas is still the 1b next year.

I'm still holding out for Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt. If Casas fizzles out or gets traded, Yoshida has a slot at DH, again.

[Maxbialystock]

On 4/6/2025 at 10:01 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Cora says that from now on whenever Rafaela sits, Campbell will be in center (Duran in left).

Fascinating.   Makes sense.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm still holding out for Devers to pick up a 1Bman's mitt. If Casas fizzles out or gets traded, Yoshida has a slot at DH, again.

Devers has yet to practice at 1b.  Casas and Devers both have higher career OPSs than Yoshida.  Yoshida is admittedly an expensive bench-sitter, but I think he stays there.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Fascinating.   Makes sense.  

He said Campbell's comfort level in CF was the reason.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Devers has yet to practice at 1b.  Casas and Devers both have higher career OPSs than Yoshida.  Yoshida is admittedly an expensive bench-sitter, but I think he stays there.  

It would take a Casas trade (or injury) to boost Yoshida to take his place in the line-up.

(I am not for trading Casas, especially to make room for Yoshida.)

[mvp 78]

 

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Looks like Casas is still the 1b next year. And ya’ll thought I was crazy for saying vladdy would get at least $500 million.

Devers at $300 doesn’t look so bad now.  One thing we forget is what the LT will be at the tail end of these contracts. 
 

imagine what paying Cambell only $7.5 million a year 7 years from now will look like.

I'm more than fine being nowhere near that contract for Vlady. Crazy money. 

There's no guarantee the LT will still be a thing after the next negotiations, but if it is we've made plenty of smart moves recently. 

[Hitch]

Those two wins felt huge yesterday for different reasons. The late come-from-behind win. The big bats booming. Willy continuing to be the greatest player the sport has ever seen, the fans were into it, the team was loving it. Felt like the real launch of our season. 

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm more than fine being nowhere near that contract for Vlady. Crazy money. 

There's no guarantee the LT will still be a thing after the next negotiations, but if it is we've made plenty of smart moves recently. 

My point often is that the money is always crazy, and will only get crazier.  I don't think that will change with or without a LT, I'm sure it certainly won't be moving down. 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Bregman Mon-Sun: 407 AVG/1263 OPS/2 HR/10 RBI

Abreu: 1033 OPS

Campbell: 1040 OPS

Devers: 455 AVG/1313 OPS/1 HR/7 RBI

 

[Hitch]

34 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

My point often is that the money is always crazy, and will only get crazier.  I don't think that will change with or without a LT, I'm sure it certainly won't be moving down. 

Yes, the money will continue to go up for sure. Which makes the contracts we've dished out all the better recently. 

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're not crazy, but Vlad getting $500 million is.

Good for the Jays ownership for the investment in the team, though.

Vladdy's contract is beyond insane.  When will it end?  Unfortunately for me, probably never.  YIkes.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wilyer Abreu makes $749,500 this season.

 

Ding, ding, ding.  We have a winner.