A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fast start to 2025? Pre-July 2024 he had thrown less innings, and the more innings that piled up his stuff wasn’t as good. Maybe it’s nothing more than he worn down as starters do. This year may show more of what he really is.

I do think he started wearing down, but I'm not sure that was the whole issue.

Houck has been around a long time. He's been moved from pen to rotation and has had several different injuries, including major back issues.

The guy has some nasty stuff, when healthy. He joined professional ball in 2017 and pitched 119 innings in 2018 at age 22. He never reached that amount again, until 2024. From 23-24, he was only used as a SP'er. He was 26-27 for those years. He missed some time in '23 and had some pretty bad numbers, but he still managed a 3.83 ERA over those two years, combined, thanks mostly to his half season start to 2024. I get that.

If you combine 2023 with the second half od 2024, he is certainly a mid-rotation guy, by the numbers. Even if you throw out 2023, his second half 2024 is mid-rotation material. I agree.

I think he can be and is better than that, but that assume good health. I think he should be 3.50 to 3.90 for the next 2-3 years of his peak prime years. To me, that is #2 material and maybe #1 for 10-15 teams.

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But, it didn't "dip back" to his previous level, which was when he was pre-prime and being moved all over the place while dealing with several injuries, over the years.

It dipped below his previous and career numbers as a SP'er.

Career: 3.72 ERA with a .657 OPS Against shows some pretty good stuff- maybe better than mid rotation. Plus, he had awful defense behind him for many years, and now, he is in peak prime years.

2022 as a starter: 4.32 ERA, 4.15 xFIP

2023 as a starter: 5.01 ERA,  4.07 xFIP

2024 as a starter 1st half: 2.54 ERA, 3.16 xFIP

2024 as a starter 2nd half: 4.23 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Seems to me that 2nd half Houck was more similar to '22 and '23 starter Houck than you are letting on. I think we are far enough removed from '20 and '21 that they have little bearing on Houck going forward. It's fine if he's a midrotation guy. xFIP takes all the nonsense away from your bad defense argument. 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

prob since pre deadline last year

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202408280.shtml

Bello threw 8 innings of shutout ball against the Jays on Aug 28. Sox offense could have hit a little better in that one, but seems fairly comparable. 

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2022 as a starter: 4.32 ERA, 4.15 xFIP

2023 as a starter: 5.01 ERA,  4.07 xFIP

2024 as a starter 1st half: 2.54 ERA, 3.16 xFIP

2024 as a starter 2nd half: 4.23 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Seems to me that 2nd half Houck was more similar to '22 and '23 starter Houck than you are letting on. I think we are far enough removed from '20 and '21 that they have little bearing on Houck going forward. It's fine if he's a midrotation guy. xFIP takes all the nonsense away from your bad defense argument. 

Was 2024 the only year Houck has been healthy, and the only time he threw 179 innings? If Houck does the same thing this year then you may have a better argument.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2022 as a starter: 4.32 ERA, 4.15 xFIP

2023 as a starter: 5.01 ERA,  4.07 xFIP

2024 as a starter 1st half: 2.54 ERA, 3.16 xFIP

2024 as a starter 2nd half: 4.23 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Seems to me that 2nd half Houck was more similar to '22 and '23 starter Houck than you are letting on. I think we are far enough removed from '20 and '21 that they have little bearing on Houck going forward. It's fine if he's a midrotation guy. xFIP takes all the nonsense away from your bad defense argument. 

I can see why you left off the first 16 starts of his career ('20-'21,) since it does not fit your narrative, but you make a good point.

I would argue some of those years he was being jerked back and forth and or was recovering from some minor or major injury.

While the 4.23 ERA is higher than all but the 2023 sample size, it is pretty close to who he has been as a starter since 2022. That is significant. I would not be surprised if he ends up at 4.25-4.50 in 2025, but I think he pitches better than those numbers, when healthy. Just my opinion.

His career numbers matter, too.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see why you left off the first 16 starts of his career ('20-'21,) since it does not fit your narrative, but you make a good point.

I would argue some of those years he was being jerked back and forth and or was recovering from some minor or major injury.

While the 4.23 ERA is higher than all but the 2023 sample size, it is pretty close to who he has been as a starter since 2022. That is significant. I would not be surprised if he ends up at 4.25-4.50 in 2025, but I think he pitches better than those numbers, when healthy. Just my opinion.

His career numbers matter, too.

I'd argue that 2020 is meaningless as the book hadn't gotten around on Houck. 2021's performance is so far in the past that I don't know how it leads any credence to how he'll pitch today. The three previous seasons are more important to me. Prior to that, everything is much less important. 

Hey, I'm a Red Sox fan first and foremost. I hope I'm wrong and that Houck can pitch like the first half of 2024 going forward. It just doesn't seem likely at this point. Until he starts striking guys out again, I won't be holding my breath. 

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see why you left off the first 16 starts of his career ('20-'21,) since it does not fit your narrative, but you make a good point.

I would argue some of those years he was being jerked back and forth and or was recovering from some minor or major injury.

While the 4.23 ERA is higher than all but the 2023 sample size, it is pretty close to who he has been as a starter since 2022. That is significant. I would not be surprised if he ends up at 4.25-4.50 in 2025, but I think he pitches better than those numbers, when healthy. Just my opinion.

His career numbers matter, too.

Stats tell a story, but injuries can change that story. Back surgery ended one season, and he got hit in the face in another, which both most likely affected his pitching IMO.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Stats tell a story, but injuries can change that story. Back surgery ended one season, and he got hit in the face in another, which both most likely affected his pitching IMO.

And your excuse for this year is "he's still tired from last season." 

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And your excuse for this year is "he's still tired from last season." 

He’s only pitched 1 game so far, and you’ve got him pegged already. I don’t know why you don’t think not only the big increase in innings pitched last year plus the number of innings he pitched could have any possible effects on his tail off as the season worn down. Like I said I’m waiting to see how he does this year, before I judge where he ranks in the rotation. You seem to have made up your mind already. I want to see more, before I do. I still haven’t given up the thought that Houck, and Whit would make a good backend of the BP.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

He’s only pitched 1 game so far, and you’ve got him pegged already. I don’t know why you don’t think not only the big increase in innings pitched last year plus the number of innings he pitched could have any possible effects on his tail off as the season worn down. Like I said I’m waiting to see how he does this year, before I judge where he ranks in the rotation. You seem to have made up your mind already. I want to see more, before I do. I still haven’t given up the thought that Houck, and Whit would make a good backend of the BP.

Houck is NOT a bullpen arm. He's a good starter.

Whitlock is a good to great bullpen arm.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Was 2024 the only year Houck has been healthy, and the only time he threw 179 innings? If Houck does the same thing this year then you may have a better argument.

Yes, his previous IP high was 119 IP back in 2018 in the minors. He never reached the conditioning of 170-180 IP, before, and maybe was not ready in 2024 for that much. I'm not disagreeing with you.

I'm just saying, we cannot be certain his late season decline was due to not being conditioned to pitch that much. It looks like it was a factor, to me, but he has dealt with injuries and back issues, so maybe it was that, as well.

 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And your excuse for this year is "he's still tired from last season." 

No excuse is needed for such a tiny sample size.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Houck is NOT a bullpen arm. He's a good starter.

Whitlock is a good to great bullpen arm.

I agree with this. Last spring, based on Houcks numbers after 50-75 pitches, I was arguing he should be in the pen. Now, I agree, he should be a starter. I hope he finds the groove and is better conditioned to go 180 IP. I think he can do better than 4.23. I'd project closer to 4.00 than 4.25, and might bet on closer to 3.75 than 4.25.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck's decline in strikeout rate seems like a real concern.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Houck's decline in strikeout rate seems like a real concern.

That's all I'm saying! 😭

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Houck has made one start.  No one cares about spring training numbers. 

As already mentioned, it's not ST that worries me. Hopefully he'll be back to what we saw first half of last year.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree with this. Last spring, based on Houcks numbers after 50-75 pitches, I was arguing he should be in the pen. Now, I agree, he should be a starter. I hope he finds the groove and is better conditioned to go 180 IP. I think he can do better than 4.23. I'd project closer to 4.00 than 4.25, and might bet on closer to 3.75 than 4.25.

I always thought houck should be a closer for us!! 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Houck's decline in strikeout rate seems like a real concern.

I could go tiny sample size, like some do:

6Ks in 4IP, today. All is fine!

🤪

 

[moonslav59]

Can Whitlock keep pitching 2 IP, every other day?

That could come to over 160 IP.

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Can Whitlock keep pitching 2 IP, every other day?

That could come to over 160 IP.

No, and he’s not doing that. He pitched on the 4th day for his 2nd appearance, and the 3rd day today.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I could go tiny sample size, like some do:

6Ks in 4IP, today. All is fine!

🤪

 

6 k’s today in 4IP was good, but he wasn’t real sharp, and only lasting 4IP wasn’t good, which took 82 pitches at that.

[Kimmi]

On 4/2/2025 at 12:11 PM, Old Red said:

I’m not claiming indifference, or support for Brez. At the time I was just glad to get out from the Gloom, and Doom of Bloom. Brez wouldn’t have been my first choice, and I don’t think he was the Red Sox first choice either, but most importantly he was willing and available, and Theo probably put I a good word for him also. If things work out great, but if the don’t I won’t say I told you so either.

I know most people are not fans of Bloom, but the dislike for him really has me baffled.  Always has baffled me.  Needless to say, I was and am a very big Bloom fan.

Actually, I take that back.  I'm not really baffled by the dislike.  Most fans have a different team building philosophy than I have.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I really do believe that.

I know people say they don't  listen, but the grumbling was ground-shaking. They had to feel the vibes.

I also truly believe they saw the rising prospect crop and tried their hardest to con fans into thinking they were trying to "win now," but it was always about the long term. They could not make it a 100% tear-down rebuild, so they had to walk a tight rope for a while (not to well, i might add,) but here we are.

The cycle of going for the now has arrived. It was the longest interval under JH & Co., but I think this is how they plan. Cycles.

2013 may not have been the plan, and maybe it convinced them they could keep winning, even during the "off cycles" with the right GM and coaching, but it's not easy. (2021 bought more time.)

Bloom's #1 job was to rebuild the farm, while trying to give the appearances we were not totally giving up. Had we not done well in 2021. the jig would have been up, earlier than now, IMO.

As much as Bloom gets roasted alive, as did Ben, both provided some strong building blocks for those who followed. DD used them to trade, while Brez seems to have found a healthy mix. We'll see.

These cycles take approximately 5 years.  In other cities, there might have been a 100% tear-down, but in Boston, there has to be an attempt to remain competitive while building up the farm.  That attempt to remain competitive has to be within the parameters of keeping long-term sustainability the priority.  That usually means no big free agent signings.  If you're lucky, you can get to the playoffs, or even win a WS during that "rebuild" time.

IMO, both Cherington and Bloom were at the point where the team was ready to go for it.  Neither got the chance to see their hard work come to fruition.  I was not a fan of Dombrowski, but I do like Breslow.

[Kimmi]

13 hours ago, Hitch said:

If we can eek out a win later, this will have been a decent start to the season. 3-4 against two very tough teams to open on the road is not too bad, and with the contract extensions as well...

But Houck needs to be in a better place than he's been.

It's almost like I made this post myself.

[Kimmi]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We all blame them for something. 🙂

I am a big supporter of Henry for the most part.  I have never had issues with his supposed lack a spending as many others have.  My beef with him is that I feel like he tends to panic react.

[Nick]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Can Whitlock keep pitching 2 IP, every other day?

That could come to over 160 IP.

I heard the NESN guy say he needs two days of rest when he pitches 2 IP. So NO.

He pitched 2 innings on 3/27, 3/31 and 4/3. Not every other day.

[Nick]

Not sure how relevant it is but 

Red Sox lead the AL pitchers in least pitches thrown per inning. We're second in the majors behind the Cardinals.

It's better than being dead last.

[Old Red]

34 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I know most people are not fans of Bloom, but the dislike for him really has me baffled.  Always has baffled me.  Needless to say, I was and am a very big Bloom fan.

Actually, I take that back.  I'm not really baffled by the dislike.  Most fans have a different team building philosophy than I have.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

It wasn’t really the dislike of Bloom, but the dislike of the change of philosophy.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

No, and he’s not doing that. He pitched on the 4th day for his 2nd appearance, and the 3rd day today.

True, even "every other game" would be an overstatement. Good point.

He has pitched 3 games out of the first 7, but that is misleading, because it will likely be 3 in the first 9 or 10 days. Let's say, for argument's sake, he goes 2 every 3 games, that would be about 110 IP.

It would also be 54 games in 186 days or about a appearance very 3.4 days, which about what he has done, so far.

To me, 90-100 IP like this would be HUGE! Even 70-80.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, even "every other game" would be an overstatement. Good point.

He has pitched 3 games out of the first 7, but that is misleading, because it will likely be 3 in the first 9 or 10 days. Let's say, for argument's sake, he goes 2 every 3 games, that would be about 110 IP.

It would also be 54 games in 186 days or about a appearance very 3.4 days, which about what he has done, so far.

To me, 90-100 IP like this would be HUGE! Even 70-80.

Well Whit said he likes being the Swiss Army Knife, so anything is possible. Of course this all depends on him staying healthy. I’d like to see him getting some 1 inning chances like the 8th inning myself.