A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Nick]

As it turns out, the best thing trading away Xander was receiving a 4th round compensatory pick that yielded one Kristian Campbell.

To think we have Kristian for 6 years of team control. Padres are stuck with 9 years at $25M per year.

That one doesn't hurt as much as Betts getting away.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Nick said:

As it turns out, the best thing trading away Xander was receiving a 4th round compensatory pick that yielded one Kristian Campbell.

To think we have Kristian for 6 years of team control. Padres are stuck with 9 years at $25M per year.

That one doesn't hurt as much as Betts getting away.

Yeah, there's really no comparison.  Bogaerts is a good to very good player.  Betts is one of the best to ever play the game.

It's crazy that Bogaerts and Devers are making nearly as much as Betts.

[Nick]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, there's really no comparison.  Bogaerts is a good to very good player.  Betts is one of the best to ever play the game.

It's crazy that Bogaerts and Devers are making nearly as much as Betts.

It's incredible to think JH never factored in the present value of future layouts for Betts. It sure looks affordable. Of course to make things worse, we hand out $18M to Yoshida and $22M to Story like we have a money tree at Fenway.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Nick said:

It's incredible to think JH never factored in the present value of future layouts for Betts. It sure looks affordable. Of course to make things worse, we hand out $18M to Yoshida and $22M to Story like we have a money tree at Fenway.

They were coming off 4 WS in 15 years. Henry thought he could do it his way with or without his star player. Oops. 

[mvp 78]

 

[Nick]

"With Devers struggling so much, you may not have noticed that Trevor Story has also been unable to do anything with the bat so far this season. He’s currently 2-15 with 6 strikeouts. He also says his recently injured shoulder is fine, and that the issue is that he’s chasing too many bad pitches."

Yeah, quit talking about it and fix it........he can take a seat next to Yoshida. Come on up, Mr. Mayer.

[Nick]

Looks like the magic date for Mayer and Anthony to come up is April 11, the start of the weekend series at White Sox. 

Essentially we get 7 years. It's worth the wait.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Nick said:

"With Devers struggling so much, you may not have noticed that Trevor Story has also been unable to do anything with the bat so far this season. He’s currently 2-15 with 6 strikeouts. He also says his recently injured shoulder is fine, and that the issue is that he’s chasing too many bad pitches."

Yeah, quit talking about it and fix it........he can take a seat next to Yoshida. Come on up, Mr. Mayer.

Mayer has a 444 OPS in AAA. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Nick said:

Looks like the magic date for Mayer and Anthony to come up is April 11, the start of the weekend series at White Sox. 

Essentially we get 7 years. It's worth the wait.

That is not the magic super two date. Super two status wasn't until June 26 last season. It's typically the last week of May through the middle of June. It varies each year.

Some previous few years:

2022: May 28th

2021: June 9th

2020: May 31st

2019: June 10th

2018: May 22nd

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer has a 444 OPS in AAA. 

He'll do better in THE SHOW than he will in the concealment.

[Larry Cook]

On 3/31/2025 at 9:35 AM, mvp 78 said:

What mechanics are out of sync, aside from his stance being more extreme? I'm not a hitting coach, but typically when stuff like bat speed and pitching velo is down, there are underlying concerns that are usually health related. 

I agree 100 percent. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

He'll do better in THE SHOW than he will in the concealment.

He's a shower not a grower? 

[moonslav59]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but here are the years of control of our current players - counting 2025:

9 Devers

6-7 Crochet

6 Rafaela

5-6 Bello

5+ Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, Weissert, Narvaez, Fitts, Priester, Murphy & others

5 Abreu, DHam, Slaten, Criswell, Bernardino, Grissom, 

4 Duran, Casas, Crawford, Wong,  Romy, Wink,  Kelly

3-4 Story

3 Houck, Yoshida

2 Sandoval, Whitlock, Newcomb

1-3 Bregman

1-2 Giolito

1 Buehler, Chapman, Hendriks, Refsnyder, Wilson

 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, there's really no comparison.  Bogaerts is a good to very good player.  Betts is one of the best to ever play the game.

It's crazy that Bogaerts and Devers are making nearly as much as Betts.

Whats crazy is Anthony Rendon makes more per year than Betts - and Rendon signed FIVE MONTHS EARLIER!!

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Whats crazy is Anthony Rendon makes more per year than Betts - and Rendon signed FIVE MONTHS EARLIER!!

It makes sense because Rendon was 3 years older and had almost 5 less career fWAR than Mookie! 

[notin]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers' last 9 regular season games: 

1-34, 26K, 5 BB

They shut him down last year after he went 1-15 with 11 k's. He's current stretch is worse. There's no way his shoulder is ok. 

Then the Sox need to bench/rest/cure him.

If he’s hurt, it’s clearly affecting his play to the point where any healthy ball player would be a step up.

If he’s not hurt, which he insists, then I am wondering about the story behind the new, wide open stance.  It seems like it would be more taxing on his shoulder.  So is he just trying to be pull-happy?

If some non-ball player like me tried to bat like that, it’d take me some time to learn to wait a little longer and not be way out in front of everything.  I assume a hitter with Devers’ pedigree could adjust much faster.  But maybe not?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Then the Sox need to bench/rest/cure him.

Yup. If they trot him out there tomorrow night, someone needs to get fired. They aren't doing Raffy any favors at the moment.

[Larry Cook]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yup. If they trot him out there tomorrow night, someone needs to get fired. They aren't doing Raffy any favors at the moment.

If the problem is timing, then he has to see live pitching to fix it. 

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, Nick said:

It's incredible to think JH never factored in the present value of future layouts for Betts. It sure looks affordable. Of course to make things worse, we hand out $18M to Yoshida and $22M to Story like we have a money tree at Fenway.

1. We know what the Dodgers are paying Betts, but don't know how much more they were willing to pay him if the Sox made a competitive offer.  It's important to remember that the Betts deal happened after the 2019 season, which was unmitigated disaster.  The Sox had the highest payroll in MLB and couldn't make the playoffs.  The hitting was still pretty good with Mookie--the Sox finished 4th in MLB in runs scored.  But the pitching, ranked 19th in team ERA, stunk. 

2.  So DD was fired and replaced by Chaim Bloom from the Rays system, probably in hopes he could field a competitive team that didn't break the bank at Monte Carlo.  Thus the pursuit of relative bargains like Story and Yoshida--and a whole bunch of pitchers.  The 2021 team, Chaim's first when you exclude covid 2020, was pretty good and made it to the ALCS before losing to the Astros. 

3. But then came 78 wins (and no postseason) in both 2022 and 2023, so the Chaim experiment ended and Breslow, with a Yale degree (majors in molecular biophysics and biochemisty) and 12 years of MLB pitching experience, was hired.  

4. Last year, despite the Giolito/Sale disasters, was a slight improvement--from 78 wins to 81 wins--plus the Sox finished 3d in the AL East instead of the cellar in both 2022 and 2023.  In the 2024  postseason Breslow had the go ahead to make some big acquisitions--Bregman, Buehler, Chapman, and Crochet.  Interestingly, however--and I think moonslav predicted this last year--the Sox payroll right now is ranked just 12th.  

5.  I don't like being 1-4 right now, but have hopes the new blood--including Campbell and the guys still in AAA--will get the Sox to the postseason.  

6.  All in all, I'm inclined to defend JH, who is the best owner in Sox history--his quirks notwithstanding.  

[Kimmi]

12 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

1. We know what the Dodgers are paying Betts, but don't know how much more they were willing to pay him if the Sox made a competitive offer.  It's important to remember that the Betts deal happened after the 2019 season, which was unmitigated disaster.  The Sox had the highest payroll in MLB and couldn't make the playoffs.  The hitting was still pretty good with Mookie--the Sox finished 4th in MLB in runs scored.  But the pitching, ranked 19th in team ERA, stunk. 

2.  So DD was fired and replaced by Chaim Bloom from the Rays system, probably in hopes he could field a competitive team that didn't break the bank at Monte Carlo.  Thus the pursuit of relative bargains like Story and Yoshida--and a whole bunch of pitchers.  The 2021 team, Chaim's first when you exclude covid 2020, was pretty good and made it to the ALCS before losing to the Astros. 

3. But then came 78 wins (and no postseason) in both 2022 and 2023, so the Chaim experiment ended and Breslow, with a Yale degree (majors in molecular biophysics and biochemisty) and 12 years of MLB pitching experience, was hired.  

4. Last year, despite the Giolito/Sale disasters, was a slight improvement--from 78 wins to 81 wins--plus the Sox finished 3d in the AL East instead of the cellar in both 2022 and 2023.  In the 2024  postseason Breslow had the go ahead to make some big acquisitions--Bregman, Buehler, Chapman, and Crochet.  Interestingly, however--and I think moonslav predicted this last year--the Sox payroll right now is ranked just 12th.  

5.  I don't like being 1-4 right now, but have hopes the new blood--including Campbell and the guys still in AAA--will get the Sox to the postseason.  

6.  All in all, I'm inclined to defend JH, who is the best owner in Sox history--his quirks notwithstanding.  

1.  Am I misremembering?  The Sox did make Mookie a competitive offer.  Mookie said no.

2.  Bloom did exactly what the Red Sox hired him to do.  He never should have been fired, IMO.  Henry remains too impatient, IMO.

5 and 6.  100% agree.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

1.  Am I misremembering?  The Sox did make Mookie a competitive offer.  Mookie said no.

2.  Bloom did exactly what the Red Sox hired him to do.  He never should have been fired, IMO.  Henry remains too impatient, IMO.

5 and 6.  100% agree.

I liked the idea Bloom was supposed to implement, but I think his firing was merited after two consecutive failed deadlines when his attempts to bolster teams that were within striking distance of a wild card slot.  He lacked the killer instinct to pull off a big deal, simply put.  He did it with well in 2021 with Schwarber and two mediocre relievers who at least gave his bullpen some innings.  But he gave up nothing in those deals and was unable to pull anything off if he had to actuypay a reasonable price.  
 

Bloom strikes me as a useful CBO for a team in need of a farm system and a rebuild, but not one who can put a competitive one over the top…

[oldtimer]

14 hours ago, Hitch said:

Some chat about Devers - 

 

“It’s not the shoulders, it’s not the DH thing, he was very vocal about that a few days ago,” Cora said.   

If he knows what it isn't, can he say what it is? Just working hard isn't going to cure this. Practicing the wrong technique makes one better at doing the wrong thing. They need to identify the problem(s) and make the necessary adjustment(s). Quit making excuses and lets see results!

[Kimmi]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I liked the idea Bloom was supposed to implement, but I think his firing was merited after two consecutive failed deadlines when his attempts to bolster teams that were within striking distance of a wild card slot.  He lacked the killer instinct to pull off a big deal, simply put.  He did it with well in 2021 with Schwarber and two mediocre relievers who at least gave his bullpen some innings.  But he gave up nothing in those deals and was unable to pull anything off if he had to actuypay a reasonable price.  
 

Bloom strikes me as a useful CBO for a team in need of a farm system and a rebuild, but not one who can put a competitive one over the top…

Most people would agree with you, I think.  IMO, I'm not sure it was the right time to pull off a big deal just yet.  As with Cherington, I think Bloom should have been allowed more time to see his vision through.  

That said, I'm not unhappy Breslow.  I think he's very similar to Bloom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Most people would agree with you, I think.  IMO, I'm not sure it was the right time to pull off a big deal just yet.  As with Cherington, I think Bloom should have been allowed more time to see his vision through.  

That said, I'm not unhappy Breslow.  I think he's very similar to Bloom.

Except Bloom studied the Classics at Yale. That explains why he traded for Schwarber, whose speciality is to Homer, but also the Odyssey of Chaim's yearly bargain bin pitching staffs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If the problem is timing, then he has to see live pitching to fix it. 

I saw this and thought: maybe he doesn't see live pitching as well as he used to.

Has anyone tested Raffy's vision lately? This was the main career downfall of Jim Rice, a guy who never lost his strength, and still whacks golf balls a mile... but they just sit still on the grass, waiting to be punished.

[moonslav59]

MLB on K Campbell

https://www.mlb.com/news/kristian-campbell-early-2025-analysis

[d-money]

Yankees rolling right now.  This is how this team should have started but they look so lethargic. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I liked the idea Bloom was supposed to implement, but I think his firing was merited after two consecutive failed deadlines when his attempts to bolster teams that were within striking distance of a wild card slot.  He lacked the killer instinct to pull off a big deal, simply put.  He did it with well in 2021 with Schwarber and two mediocre relievers who at least gave his bullpen some innings.  But he gave up nothing in those deals and was unable to pull anything off if he had to actuypay a reasonable price.  
 

Bloom strikes me as a useful CBO for a team in need of a farm system and a rebuild, but not one who can put a competitive one over the top…

He did a lot of great things for the organization, but wasn’t able to manage a competitive MLB team from year to year. He wasn’t meeting expectations laid out by ownership on an annual basis to the media. Going over the CBT was a big mistake. Fumbling multiple deadlines to the point where other GMs no longer wanted to pick up your phone call doesn’t work either. He was a mixed bag. SoxProspects guys said as much in his postmortem.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, d-money said:

Yankees rolling right now.  This is how this team should have started but they look so lethargic. 

They finally lost, but they still hit 2 jacks.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He did a lot of great things for the organization, but wasn’t able to manage a competitive MLB team from year to year. He wasn’t meeting expectations laid out by ownership on an annual basis to the media. Going over the CBT was a big mistake. Fumbling multiple deadlines to the point where other GMs no longer wanted to pick up your phone call doesn’t work either. He was a mixed bag. SoxProspects guys said as much in his postmortem.

No doubt, Bloom failed to do what they hoped he could do. He fell way short on the hopes of bargain basement success stories, and too many of his largest signings failed miserably, despite some of them only being $10M/1, so I guess success rates on those types of deals do not have great track records.

His deadline fumbles were legendary, but in '21, he did bring in Schwarber, Robles, and later Iggy & Shaw. The Vaz for Abreu deal was nice, but yes, the ho-hum summer deals left all of us scratching our heads- bot those who wanted us to sell and those who wanted us to buy.

He did pretty good with the farm, but failed to fix the farm pitching issues. He did leave us a few promising arms, but not really any wow factors.

Seeing what Brez has done in less than a year and a half is pretty remarkable in comparison to Bloom, but then again, Bloom got us close to the WS in less than 2 years. The after years dommed him.

Story, Yoshida, Richards, Kluber, Paxton...