A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ref and Bregman are the only two everyday players with less than 3 years of control. Hell, Yoshida is crowded out of a spot on the 26, already. (I think he gets 20 days in rehab after the IL stint, then what?)

I think some trades will be made- maybe this summer (Abreu or Story?)

Abreu seems very likely.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm dumping Bleis on anyone who's asking. 

You think his stock is as high as it will ever be?

[moonslav59]

I know I'm letting the excitement of the fast- approaching opening day cloud my judgment, but I'm really liking our chances in the AL, this season. The rest of the AL looks to have gotten weaker, from the Yanks to the Indians, Astros and Orioles. Maybe the Jays and a couple other teams improved, but not by much. My hopes are as much about how bad I think they are as I think we are better.

Yes, we lost Jansen, Martin, O'Neal and Pivetta, but we lost a lot of deadweight, too, and if you total up the PAs and IP, we lost more bad than good, except for the pen.

I may sound like a broken record, but I'm loving our depth, that extends beyond the 40 Man Roster, this year to Anthony, Mayer, Fulmer, several other pitchers and the Thompson-Eaton-Toro trio.

I think our offense is better. Our defense should be way better and may jump 15 slots in the rankings. Our rotation is as good as it's been since 2018. Our pen looks shaky, especially at closer, but it is deep and may get help from starters used in the pen.

I've always been high on Cora, and Brez seems like he knows what he's doing.

GO SOX! Let's win this thing!

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You think his stock is as high as it will ever be?

IDK. It could get higher if he hits again this year. He didn't show much last season and hasn't shown much this spring. He just hasn't put it together in game since 2022 (aside from one good month last season). 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu seems very likely.

I know some posters do not think Abreu has much trade value, but I do. With our depth, we could also make it a 2 or 3 for one trade, involving 40 Man Roster players or prospects to sweeten the return.

I don't want to decimate the depth, but we have some bottlenecks, now and will have more before too long.

What could we get for Abreu, Cespedes and Mullins?

What catcher might we get for Abreu, Wong and Romero?

How about a real closer for Abreu, Grissom and Kelly?

I'm not sure what is out there, and March-April are not typical months for big trades, so maybe we wait for nearer the deadline, but I do think something goes down, this year, unless we have so many injuries, we need these guys.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What could we get for Abreu, Cespedes and Mullins?

What catcher might we get for Abreu, Wong and Romero?

How about a real closer for Abreu, Grissom and Kelly?

1. Midrotation starter

2. O'Hoppe and a rando reliever

3. Mason Miller, no! Jason Foley, sure! Is he a "real" closer? 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. Midrotation starter

2. O'Hoppe and a rando reliever

3. Mason Miller, no! Jason Foley, sure! Is he a "real" closer? 

If the job of a closer is to prevent hits by walking people, Foley is as real as it gets…

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu seems very likely.

package around Abreu for Alcantara?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I know I'm letting the excitement of the fast- approaching opening day cloud my judgment, but I'm really liking our chances in the AL, this season. The rest of the AL looks to have gotten weaker, from the Yanks to the Indians, Astros and Orioles. Maybe the Jays and a couple other teams improved, but not by much. My hopes are as much about how bad I think they are as I think we are better.

Yes, we lost Jansen, Martin, O'Neal and Pivetta, but we lost a lot of deadweight, too, and if you total up the PAs and IP, we lost more bad than good, except for the pen.

I may sound like a broken record, but I'm loving our depth, that extends beyond the 40 Man Roster, this year to Anthony, Mayer, Fulmer, several other pitchers and the Thompson-Eaton-Toro trio.

I think our offense is better. Our defense should be way better and may jump 15 slots in the rankings. Our rotation is as good as it's been since 2018. Our pen looks shaky, especially at closer, but it is deep and may get help from starters used in the pen.

I've always been high on Cora, and Brez seems like he knows what he's doing.

GO SOX! Let's win this thing!

There is a lot to be excited about.

I'm mostly worried about injuries.  Injuries have become such a gigantic factor in the game.  And not just to pitchers.  

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

If the job of a closer is to prevent hits by walking people, Foley is as real as it gets…

There aren't many "real" closers anymore and I'm not sure what that package would get back. It wasn't necessarily a pro-Foley post.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There aren't many "real" closers anymore ...

Well, we do know Chapman and Hendriks are make believe closers.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, we do know Chapman and Hendriks are make believe closers.

Chapman's last 6 outings: 11 K, 1 BB

If he can keep that BB rate around 4 per 9, he's not going to give up the closer's role. 

[dgalehouse]

What is a " real closer" ? Chapman has 335 saves. Fifteenth most all time. For real.

[mvp 78]

Just now, dgalehouse said:

What is a " real closer" ? Chapman has 335 saves. Fifteenth most all time. For real.

He's averaged less than 10 the past three seasons. Prime Chapman was certainly a legit closer.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

What is a " real closer" ? Chapman has 335 saves. Fifteenth most all time. For real.

You know how silly we get with labels.  Some might think he's too old or he walks too many guys now.  But he's obviously one of the all-time best at what he does.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chapman's last 6 outings: 11 K, 1 BB

If he can keep that BB rate around 4 per 9, he's not going to give up the closer's role. 

Yes, a make believe closer holding the slot on a team without a "real closer."

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You know how silly we get with labels.  Some might think he's too old or he walks too many guys now.  But he's obviously WAS one of the all-time best at what he does.

I fixed it for you.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

There aren't many "real" closers anymore and I'm not sure what that package would get back. It wasn't necessarily a pro-Foley post.

Foley was just sent to AAA.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Foley was just sent to AAA.

He's available then?

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's available then?

A AAA closer is not a "real closer."

[dgalehouse]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You know how silly we get with labels.  Some might think he's too old or he walks too many guys now.  But he's obviously one of the all-time best at what he does.

I have always wondered if Chapman was on steroids. But he has never been caught so it seems like he is clean. The guy is a physical specimen. And while others his age are at or near the end of the road, he is still throwing as hard as ever.  How he does this year remains to be seen , but I think he was a good acquisition and certainly fits the definition of  " real closer".  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A AAA closer is not a "real closer."

He had a better spring ERA than Tanner Houck. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I have always wondered if Chapman was on steroids. But he has never been caught so it seems like he is clean. The guy is a physical specimen. And while others his age are at or near the end of the road, he is still throwing as hard as ever.  How he does this year remains to be seen , but I think he was a good acquisition and certainly fits the definition of  " real closer".  

Well, we did go younger at closer and kept up the streak of going with aging pitchers as closers.

One time great, Kenley Jansen is 37 years old and 177 days, while once great Chapman is 37 years old and 26 days.

We have the young sprout, Liam Hendriks, waiting in the wings at 36 and 44 days.

I do hope Chapman can do well and hold the job, all year. A merry-go-round closer position would likely spell doom for this promising team.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a better spring ERA than Tanner Houck. 

I didn't realize this was your criteria.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You know how silly we get with labels.  Some might think he's too old or he walks too many guys now.  But he's obviously one of the all-time best at what he does.

No one is too old if he's still healthy enough to be effective (like throwing 100 mph in the strike zone).

The question is, who will be a bigger factor for his new team: Chapman or Scherzer?

The answer will determine the fate of the AL East... (you heard it here worst)!

[moonslav59]

Besides naming Chapman the closer, "big surprise," Cora had named Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks and Wilson, earlier, but yesterday he named Weissert and Kelly. One slot remains, I'm thinking maybe Criswell, but maybe it's lefty Bernardino. Newcomb is the 5th starter.

Abreu is "100% on the opening day roster."

[harmony]

Columnist Keith Law at The Athletic picks the Red Sox to win the AL East with the league's best record:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6228542/2025/03/26/mlb-predictions-2025-season/

Law has the Red Sox topping the Seattle Mariners in the American League Championship Series before losing to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series.

Subscription required.

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure SEA got much better, but everyone else got worse in their division and in much of the AL.

[Hitch]

I think (re: hope) that Chapman may be invigorated by unexpectedly getting a chance to close again for a contender.  There'll be plenty of heart attacks but I'm hopeful he will surprise us in a good way.